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The W - Current Events & Politics - Huckabee surging in polls
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spf
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.16
From Bloomberg via Yahoo (news.yahoo.com)

    Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is surging nationally in the Republican presidential race as he runs better than 3-to-1 ahead of his nearest competitor among religious conservatives.

    A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows that Huckabee, with 17 percent support, trails only longtime front-runner Rudy Giuliani, with 23 percent.


This the most competitive two-party primary year I have seen in my lifetime. Sure some years have been pretty good races (1992 Dems, 2000 GOP, 2004 Dems) but usually the other party those years is pretty cut and dry. This year we're less than a month out from Iowa and the Dem race is still up for grabs (if Iowa doesn't go to Hilary the entire dynamic changes) and the GOP race could still be won by any of 5 people at this point.

I'd also like to point out that OlFuzzyBastard was way ahead of the political punditry in predicting the rise of Huckabee (The W)

    Originally posted by OFB from May 4, 2007
    I honestly think the nomination's Huckabee's. McCain, like everyone said, has long since blown his wad. Guilliani would probably win the general election, but there's no way the GOP's base is going to support someone who agrees with someone like me on so very many social issues, even if he's pretending not to for the next few months. And Mitt Romney is their ideal candidate except he's a Mormon so he's out. That leaves just the "also ran"s and Mike Huckabee's the best of the bunch.
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DrDirt
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Since: 8.10.03
From: flyover country

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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.67
Huckabee should be the choice of evangelical Christians, much of the GOP base. Romney is a Mormon and right or wrong, I can't see that playing well to that part of the base, especially as they will be constantly reminded of it. McCain is too old and Rudy's past will kill him sooner or later and sooner or later his temper will out big time.

Hillary and Bill are the ultimate political animals. All she has to do is survive Iowa (not get smoked) and as the primaries roll into less conservative areas, she will likely roll. If I am Obama, I watch my back as only God knows the tricks the Clinton campaign will launch. Edwards stands a chance but only if he can be really strong in Iowa and New Hampshire.



Perception is reality
AWArulz
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Since: 28.1.02
From: Louisville, KY

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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.56
Mike Huckabee has problems with the base as well. He want to close down Gitmo and bring those (words I won't write) into the states, which is a huge problem. He also has what the majority of the base thinks is a wrong attitude toward illegal Immigration. And he has no foreign policy background and seems uninterested. (He was asked yesterday about the National Intel briefing in Iran and seemed not to know about it.)

So, there are my objections.

But, here's what I think (and also hope) happens. Huckabee wins in Iowa, and that wakes up Rudy and Romney. I agree with the assessment that Romney cannot win because of his Mormonism. Rudy CAN win though. And I still think that he will. The base will vote for whoever the nominee is over Hillary. And I agree with the Doc that McCain's too old.

Too bad Duncan Hunter's so boring. I don't disagree with anything he says.



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redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

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#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.49
Pat Robertson finished 2nd in Iowa in '88, so I take Iowa with a grain of salt in the Republican primary.
Remember, the Democratic Primary in '04 was considered in the bag in December of '03, and that person imploded in less than a month.
If the Democratic race is close, it will be very interesting to see what happens with the Michigan, and probably Florida, delegates. If they get seated after being banned, that could be the difference.
Fred Thompson: Winner of the Bill Bradley Dud Award.
I think Huckabee has a nice ride, but the media dumps him as the flavor of the month and he fades. Rudy implodes or finds some bullshit excuse to bail out before losing. I've never thought Mitt would get the nomination, and I still don't think he will. If Mitt had knocked off Ted Kennedy in '94 when he was extremely vulnerable, I'd think much more highly of Mitt than I do now. It's crazy, but I see McCain coming out of the clouds and grabbing the nomination.
On the Democratic side, I think Hillary and Obama take each other down. I only pray to God that Oprah gets taken down in this as well. That leaves Edwards to come pick up the pieces and grab the nomination. That is, unless the banned delegates get seated, then that could flip it to Hillary since she is on the ballot in Michigan while others had their names removed.
McCain/Huckabee Republican ticket vs. Edwards/Richardson Democratic ticket. Sometimes you have to go against the chalk.
Big Bad
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Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.09
This congestion on the GOP side opens the door for Ron Paul to....aw, never mind.

Looks like Huckabee has been the "front-runner" for little more than a few days and his past is already coming under heavier scrutiny. Seems a bit like Dukakis and Willie Horton to me, but time will tell if it affects Huckabee as it did Dukakis.
spf
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.16
To RSN's thought, I just don't see Huckabee going the VP route, especially not with McCain. I think he would probably look to someone a little less out there, as the base is going to come out for the GOP no matter who on the Dem side wins. I would have thought maybe Jim Gilmore, but he seems to be gearing up for the epic race in Virginia to replace to John Warner. I can't really think of anyone off the top of my head who might be a good choice though otherwise, but I can't see Huckabee.
bash91
Merguez








Since: 2.1.02
From: Plain Dealing, LA

Since last post: 747 days
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#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.81
I can honestly say this is the first time in at least 16 years, and more likely 20, where our primary is a month away and I have absolutely no clue for whom I will cast my vote. Of course, it may not matter since both parties have said Michigan is irrelevant and there is the possibility of the primary being halted by the courts given that the state legislature decided that voters must declare a party in order to vote and that the lists of who declared as which party are not subject to the state open records law and are instead to be the private property of the state Democratic and Republican parties, respectively. Our Supreme Court said the law was okay on a 4-3 split, but at least one group is intimating they will file in Federal court to stop the election from taking place under those conditions. Given that both the Circuit court and the Court of Appeals in Michigan both suggested that the law violates both the state and Federal Constitutions, it is not unreasonable to think we may see a restraining order stopping the primary.

Having said all that, most of the people I know who will vote in the GOP primary are also not sure for whom they will cast their ballot. I know I can rule out certain candidates very easily. McCain is an absolute no in both the primary and the general election because (leaving aside his problems with ethics, honesty, and obeying the law he cosponsored) of McCain-Feingold. As AWArulz pointed out, Huckabee has got real issues that prevent me from seriously considering him. Ron Paul is a walking punchline. Tom Tancredo is a racist idiot. I don't agree with Giuliani on enough issues to seriously consider him. Romney has some real consistency problems that tend to make me discount him as well. That leaves me with Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter as the only two remaining candidates on the Michigan primary ballot and neither one of them enthuses me a whole lot. Help!

Tim



Vocatus atque non vocatus, Deus aderit. -- Erasmus

All others things being equal, the simplest solution is usually stupidity. -- Darwin Minor
General Zod
Italian








Since: 1.10.05
From: Mesa, Arizona

Since last post: 787 days
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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.71
    Originally posted by bash91
    McCain is an absolute no in both the primary and the general election because (leaving aside his problems with ethics, honesty, and obeying the law he cosponsored) of McCain-Feingold. As AWArulz pointed out, Huckabee has got real issues that prevent me from seriously considering him. Ron Paul is a walking punchline. Tom Tancredo is a racist idiot. I don't agree with Giuliani on enough issues to seriously consider him. Romney has some real consistency problems that tend to make me discount him as well. That leaves me with Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter as the only two remaining candidates on the Michigan primary ballot and neither one of them enthuses me a whole lot. Help!

    Tim


You can always change parties!



Keep it Funky!
bash91
Merguez








Since: 2.1.02
From: Plain Dealing, LA

Since last post: 747 days
Last activity: 18 hours
#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.81
    Originally posted by General Zod
    You can always change parties!


No, I can't.

Part of the problem is that I'm not really a Republican. Every time I do the Political Compass (politicalcompass.org), I end up in the bottom right quadrant where the economically conservative libertarians reside. (I just retook the test and my score ended up being 3.69, -3.01.) Any more, my vote tends to be about evenly split between Libertarians and Republicans with Libertarians dominating at the local level and Republicans, primarily because they're significantly more serious about national security than the Libertarians, at the state and national levels. There isn't going to be a libertarian primary, so I'll be voting in the Republican primary.

While I'm not enthusiastic about any of the GOP candidates and the GOP's pretense of being in favor of limited government is getting mighty threadbare, I'm still closer to that viewpoint than I am to the much more traditionally statist views of the Democrats. Plus, there isn't a Democratic candidate on the ballot here in Michigan for whom I could cast a vote and still respect myself in the morning.

Tim



Vocatus atque non vocatus, Deus aderit. -- Erasmus

All others things being equal, the simplest solution is usually stupidity. -- Darwin Minor
General Zod
Italian








Since: 1.10.05
From: Mesa, Arizona

Since last post: 787 days
Last activity: 2 days
#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.71
    Originally posted by bash91
    Plus, there isn't a Democratic candidate on the ballot here in Michigan for whom I could cast a vote and still respect myself in the morning.

    Tim


Funny, that's how I feel about the Republican candidates. Still, I have faith that you'll come around

That is an interesting test. I scored a -5.25 and a -6.31, somewhere in between Nelson Mandela and the Dalai Lama.



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OlFuzzyBastard
Knackwurst








Since: 28.4.02
From: Pittsburgh, PA

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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.64
Five years or so in this forum, I was bound to be right about something one of these days...
Captaincuba
Italian








Since: 25.10.05

Since last post: 181 days
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#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.61
Should I even bother waiting for Bloomberg...

I'll be honest, I normally don't do enough research come voting time.

So here ya go, my vote's out here wandering aimlessly...where do I start?

CC
AWArulz
Knackwurst








Since: 28.1.02
From: Louisville, KY

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Y!:
#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.57
    Originally posted by Captaincuba
    Should I even bother waiting for Bloomberg...

    I'll be honest, I normally don't do enough research come voting time.

    So here ya go, my vote's out here wandering aimlessly...where do I start?

    CC


If I were you I would start by taking a piece of paper and drawing a line down the middle

Pro - Eh?

On the pro side, the stuff you like, the issues and the stance on the issue you care about - and then prioritize them - Like, for me, at the top would be something like Pro Life, second might be limited government, third would be make our country secure, fourth might be Strong military

On the Eh? side, list the stuff you don't care about much. Like, I would have education policy in there (since Washington has shown is has almost zero influence on schools) and Trade policy and strategic alliances

Then, go to the candidates web pages' and see how you line up.



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