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The W - Current Events & Politics - Huckabee, Obama Win Iowa. Dodd, Biden Drop Out.
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spf
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.16
With pretty good sized majorities Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama win the Iowa Caucus. As of now Obama wins with 38%, and Edwards squeaks ahead of Clinton by a 30-29% margin. Huckabee beats Romney by a goodly amount of 34-25%. Third place is currently a near dead heat, with Thompson and McCain a few hundred votes apart, and Ron Paul coming in fifth, ahead of Giuliani.

According to CNN's coverage both Chris Dodd and Joe Biden are dropping out of the race, as neither of them did anything in Iowa. I wonder how long Bill Richardson will remain in the race.



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drjayphd
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Since: 22.4.02
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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.20
You wanted the best, you got... Out of Context Quote of the Week.

"Jesus Christ, he's got a fucking Sherman tank between the legs." (Cerebus)


MSNBC sez Giuliani only got three percent. I mean, he wasn't expected to do well in Iowa, but... Ron Paul tripled him up. Wow.



It's False
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Since: 20.6.02
From: I am the Tag Team Champions!

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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.00
I realize the Clinton camp was worried about Obama, but losing to John Edwards? Someone over there has to be hitting the panic button right about now.

This should effectively spell the end for Rudy. As soon as that story about him taking out his mistresses with taxpayer money leaked, he was pretty much cooked.




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SeVen ℱ
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Since: 11.1.02
From: Japan

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#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.00

Is it too early to talk Obama administation? Who should be VP? I would love if Dodd or Biden got it. Clinton and Edwards have too much pride to go that route and I would not want them to be a part of the administration. I would not be suprised if Obama nominated an outstanding Republican like Paul to be VP. I have never been as excited for the elections as I am now.






DrDirt
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Since: 8.10.03
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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.32
    Originally posted by SeVen ™

    Is it too early to talk Obama administation? Who should be VP? I would love if Dodd or Biden got it. Clinton and Edwards have too much pride to go that route and I would not want them to be a part of the administration. I would not be suprised if Obama nominated an outstanding Republican like Paul to be VP. I have never been as excited for the elections as I am now.




Yes. Don't forget what political animals the Clintons are. Obama certainly has a leg up but only God knows what Hillary will pull out. And if Obama gets the nomination he will NOT select a Republican, especially Ron Paul.



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Since: 12.8.02
From: Iowa

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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.00
    Originally posted by drjayphd
    MSNBC sez Giuliani only got three percent. I mean, he wasn't expected to do well in Iowa, but... Ron Paul tripled him up. Wow.


Giuliani's poor showing is his own fault. He has basically ignored Iowa, with few visits and almost no TV spots. The only person I've even met here who supports Giuliani is a crazy Isreali guy at my work.
It's False
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Since: 20.6.02
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#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.34
    Originally posted by SeVen ™

    Is it too early to talk Obama administation?


Howard Dean won the first caucus in '04. I'm just sayin'...

EDIT:

    Originally posted by StevieRichards
    I'm pretty sure that Kerry won Iowa in '04. Dean had a disappointing night, which spurred the infamous "breakdown".


Oops, I had an ignorance moment. You are correct, sir.

(edited by It's False on 5.1.08 1753)



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JayJayDean
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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.40
    Originally posted by It's False
      Originally posted by SeVen ™

      Is it too early to talk Obama administation?


    Howard Dean won the first caucus in '04. I'm just sayin'...


BYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH~!

(edited by JayJayDean on 4.1.08 1518)


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Since: 13.4.04
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#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.00
I'm pretty sure that Kerry won Iowa in '04. Dean had a disappointing night, which spurred the infamous "breakdown".

I proudly caucused for Joe Biden last night. He shoulda' been a contender.



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PeterStork
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Since: 25.1.02
From: Chicagoland with Hoosiers, or "The Region"

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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.00
    Originally posted by It's False
      Originally posted by SeVen ™

      Is it too early to talk Obama administation?


    Howard Dean won the first caucus in '04. I'm just sayin'...


As Stevie said, Dean did not win Iowa in '04. In fact, he finished third, with about half of the percentage of the winner, John Kerry.



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redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.02
Before beginning the Obama '12 re-election campaign, remember that a great deal of electoral controversy can occur between now and the convention. If it is close in the delegate count, it will be interesting what happens to the currently banned Michigan and Florida delegates, the majority of which will be pledged to Clinton. Edwards could stay in the race long enough to put himself in a slot where he could hold the balance of power over whether those delegates are seated. Could a wink/wink nod/nod promise of Supreme Court Justice Edwards cause him to determine what his delegates should do in that scenario?
A 4-way muddle of Huckabee/Rudy/Romney/McCain could cause things not to get settled immediately.
If both races can stay close and with more than 2 participants 'live', a weird thing could happen: 5 months of build-up to conventions that could matter.
spf
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Since: 2.1.02
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#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.16
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    Before beginning the Obama '12 re-election campaign, remember that a great deal of electoral controversy can occur between now and the convention. If it is close in the delegate count, it will be interesting what happens to the currently banned Michigan and Florida delegates, the majority of which will be pledged to Clinton. Edwards could stay in the race long enough to put himself in a slot where he could hold the balance of power over whether those delegates are seated. Could a wink/wink nod/nod promise of Supreme Court Justice Edwards cause him to determine what his delegates should do in that scenario?
    A 4-way muddle of Huckabee/Rudy/Romney/McCain could cause things not to get settled immediately.
    If both races can stay close and with more than 2 participants 'live', a weird thing could happen: 5 months of build-up to conventions that could matter.

I'll be honest, the thought of a brokered convention for either party gets the PoliSci geek in me all excited. But it seems like no matter how crazy things seem in the beginning, at some point someone breaks away and becomes the heir apparent. I suspect that will happen to both parties this time through as well. If, and it is a BIG if, Obama wins NH and SC I think you'll see him generate enough momentum to get to a point where even if numerically someone is able to make it difficult, there would be so much pressure to nominate him that it wouldn't be feasible to fight it. Of course, if Hilary wins NH and Edwards finds a state or two to win before Feb. 5 then all bets are off.

As for the GOP...wow, just wow. I seriously have no idea what the hell is going to happen there. I would love to see what happens if it turns out Ron Paul is holding a crucial bloc of delegates come the convention.



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Grimis
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Since: 11.7.02
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#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
    Originally posted by spf
    > I would love to see what happens if it turns out Ron Paul is holding a crucial bloc of delegates come the convention.
We'll riot....
CRZ
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Since: 9.12.01
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#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.00
    Originally posted by Grimis
      Originally posted by spf
      > I would love to see what happens if it turns out Ron Paul is holding a crucial bloc of delegates come the convention.
    We'll riot....
Do I even want to know which "we" you think you're representing with that inane remark?



MoeGates
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Since: 6.1.02
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#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.00
5 years away from the politics board and you're hating on Grimis already? Come on.



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CRZ
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Since: 9.12.01
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#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.00
    Originally posted by MoeGates
    5 years away from the politics board and you're hating on Grimis already? Come on.
(1) I'm sure it hasn't been five years, (2) it's not "hating on" - if/when we get there, you'll know it and (3) stay out of it, Canadian.

(edited by CRZ on 5.1.08 0134)


Grimis
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Since: 11.7.02
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#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
    Originally posted by CRZ
    Do I even want to know which "we" you think you're representing with that inane remark?
The actual Republican base. Paul's problem is not his message, because 80% of what he says I actually agree with. The problem is that the Republican base is not going to put up with a guy who starts spouting conspiracy theories, infers 9/11 was an inside job like he did during the one debate, and accepts the support of certain hate groups.

Paul is (mostly) a serious guy. But his hangers-on have given him a real, real bad name...
drjayphd
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Since: 22.4.02
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#18 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.07
You wanted the best, you got... Out of Context Quote of the Week.

"Jesus Christ, he's got a fucking Sherman tank between the legs." (Cerebus)


    Originally posted by Grimis
      Originally posted by CRZ
      Do I even want to know which "we" you think you're representing with that inane remark?
    The actual Republican base. Paul's problem is not his message, because 80% of what he says I actually agree with. The problem is that the Republican base is not going to put up with a guy who starts spouting conspiracy theories, infers 9/11 was an inside job like he did during the one debate, and accepts the support of certain hate groups.

    Paul is (mostly) a serious guy. But his hangers-on have given him a real, real bad name...


Psst: Paul's already denounced white-power groups and publicly said he won't accept their money any more.



MoeGates
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Since: 6.1.02
From: Brooklyn, NY

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#19 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.11
The very fact a presidential candidate has had to "denounce white power groups and said he won't accept their money" means he's done. Any time you have to even acknowledge that someone that far out of the mainstream and that repugnant to your average voter likes you, it means you also are too far out of the mainstream for your average voter. I mean, that certainly put an end to any thoughts I ever had about voting for the guy.

And I'm only visiting Canada - I'm still very much a proud voting American citizen. I always though the flag thing was where you said you were from in the profile, not based on an IP address.



Man's most valuable trait is a judicious sense of what not to believe.
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CRZ
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Since: 9.12.01
From: ミネケポăƒȘă‚č

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#20 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.00
    Originally posted by Grimis
      Originally posted by CRZ
      Do I even want to know which "we" you think you're representing with that inane remark?
    The actual Republican base. Paul's problem is not his message, because 80% of what he says I actually agree with. The problem is that the Republican base is not going to put up with a guy who starts spouting conspiracy theories, infers 9/11 was an inside job like he did during the one debate, and accepts the support of certain hate groups.

    Paul is (mostly) a serious guy. But his hangers-on have given him a real, real bad name...
This reply indicates to me that you are letting other people do your research for you. That's not only lazy, but it's dangerous. Fortunately, I don't believe that the "actual Republican base" is well-represented by your remarks, but let's address them anyway lest people start complaining about my replies being too short and dismissive.

Yes, Paul WILL accept money from anyone dumb enough to give it to him, including idiot "white power" racists. Guess what? Accepting their money doesn't equate to agreement with their views. It's funny that out of over 100,000 people who have donated to the campaign, ONE GUY will get all this attention - not to mention that when the story originally broke in the local papers back in October, it didn't last a single news cycle, but after Paul has a couple of record-breaking fundraising days, all of a sudden this story makes it way back, nationally, onto everybody's radar. Hmmm, what kooky theories could we infer from THAT?

Speaking of, I'm not sure which conspiracy theories you are associating with Paul - the only one of which I'm aware is the one about the NAFTA superhighway, which looks to me more like fact than conspiracy theory - but MONTHS ago, he made it pretty clear that he does NOT believe 9/11 was an inside job.

I don't even want to cloud the issue by saying "yeah, well let's get really deep into which corporations the 'top-tier' candidates are beholden to by virtue of THEIR financial support" because it shouldn't be an "everybody does it so it's okay" argument. Paul ISN'T "everybody else." And it ISN'T okay.

EDIT: Reply to MoeGates: Sorry to confuse you with one of the other Canadians. I'm also sorry that you're going to let one guy donating $500 determine whether a candidate is viable or not. Some have said that's exactly what he wanted to do when he made the donation. Surely it wouldn't take you more than a few minutes of research to find a REAL reason to not vote for him - and if you want to share that one here, I'll try to knock THAT one down, too. ;-)

(edited by CRZ on 5.1.08 1531)


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