Here are the results of last election year's polls.
Zogby underestimated Bush by 2, had Gore accurate. Washington Post had Bush accurate, Gore underestimated by 3. Pew underestimated Bush by 2; underestimated Gore by 5. Newsweek underestimated Bush by 3; underestimated Gore by 5. NBC/Wall Street Journal underestimated Bush by 1; underestimated Gore by 4. Marist overestimated Bush by 1, underestimated Gore by 4. Harris underestimated both Bush and Gore by one point. Gallup had Bush accurate, Gore underestimated by 2. Fox News underestimated both Bush and Gore by 5 percentage points each. CBS News underestimated Bush by 4, Gore by 3. Battleground overestimated Bush by 2, underestimated Gore by 3.
Kerry is giving up on Ohio, by the way. That's a bad sign. (Of course, from the sound of it Team Kerry decided to campaign in every rinky-dink town that they came across. Apparently, they were campaigning in towns that went 60-65% Bush in 2000.