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The W - Current Events & Politics - For what it's worth...the latest Field poll (Page 2)
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antizeus
Linguica








Since: 3.1.02

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#21 Posted on
I'm a Californian, and I haven't decided how I'm going to vote.

I'll probably vote "No" on the recall question, not because I like Davis (nobody likes Davis), but because I smell the hand of Evil Overlord (tm) Tom Delay manipulating things behind the scenes.

As for his replacement, I like Arianna Huffington the most out of all that I've heard, but I'll hold my nose and vote for Bustamante if it looks like Schwartzenegger might win.

In case you're curious about why I don't like Schwartzenegger, it's primarily due to his hypocrisy about taking special interest money. He stated early on that he wouldn't, but then proceeded to accept millions of dollars in donations from people who profit from state policy. He went on to clarify that "special interests" means groups like labor unions and Indian tribes, and not wealthy investors.

I'm also concerned about recent reports of his extreme racist rhetoric during some past bodybuilding events (involving loud, hateful, and repeated use of the 'N' word). We'll see how that plays out.

I don't care about his party affiliation. Both major parties can go to hell as far as I'm concerned. I recently voted for a Republican (Tom Campbell) because I considered his incumbant opponent (Dianne Feinstein) to be especially loathesome.



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MoeGates
Andouille








Since: 6.1.02
From: Brooklyn, NY

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#22 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.28
Jesus, how could I forget Edwards vs. Duke?

As for the Mayorality, Rizzo (that guy made Rudy Guiliani look like Al Sharpton) vs. Goode was a doozy, but I've got to go with Mark Green vs. Mike Bloomberg right here in NY in 2002. Although when Coleman Young decided to run for a (I think) 6th term of Mayor of Detroit despite being more out of it than the Pope is now, and nobody ran against him, is only disqualified on the technicality of it not being an actual race.



"I'm sorry, I didn't think I was going to talk about 'man on dog' with a United States Senator. It's sort of freaking me out."


Associated Press interview with Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), 04-07-2003.
CRZ
Big Brother
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Since: 9.12.01
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#23 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.65
Field takes a few shots at the Times poll in Why Polls Differ - A Rebuttal (field.com) (PDF)

While I have you looking at PDFs, here's Survey USA's 11 Year track record (surveyamerica.com) (PDF), where they claim to be closer to the actual election results more often than the Times AND Field AND most of the other ones. And remember, THESE are the guys that had the recall vote running 62-37 FOR, not to mention Schwarzenegger having ten points up on Bustamante...

(edited by CRZ on 17.9.03 0114)

CRZ
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#24 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.65
The Public Policy Institute of California (ppic.org) poll is the latest one making the media rounds. THEY say it's 53-42-5 for the recall, but most media outlets are reporting this as GOOD news for Davis, because the PPIC poll from LAST month had support for recall at 58%. If you ask me, anything over 50.1 is still pretty bad news for Davis....but nobody asks me. ;-)

They also have Bustamante at 28%, Schwarzenegger at 26% and McClintock at 14%. (Margin of error is 3%)

I have no idea why the PPIC doesn't just put the data online...but since it was free to order a copy, I went ahead and signed up - apparently I'll see it in my mailbox in 2-4 weeks. BAAAAAAA

EDIT: Better link here (ppic.org)

(edited by CRZ on 22.9.03 0607)


CRZ
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#25 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.65
The most underreported poll in the state STILL has support for the recall a "safe" distance north of 50% (albeit tightening), with Schwarzenegger continuing to hold a lead over Bustamante...except NOW it's JUST within the realm of statistical significance that we'd have a dead heat (or Bustamante win!)

http://surveyamerica.com/currentelectionpolls.html
23 Sep9 Sep
Recall Davis57%62%
Keep Davis4237
Undecided11
Margin of error3.53.7


23 Sep9 Sep
Schwarzenegger3939
Bustamante3229
McClintock1816
Huffington43
Others34 (+ Ueberroth 6)
Undecided43
Margin of error3.63.9

I wonder if we'll see another poll from SurveyUSA before the election...it'd be interesting to see if/how the numbers change now that the big debate is in the books...

With these numbers, is the possibility of McClintock staying in until the 7th *really* an issue...or just something else for the media to talk about?



CRZ
Grimis
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Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

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#26 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
    Originally posted by CRZ
    With these numbers, is the possibility of McClintock staying in until the 7th *really* an issue...or just something else for the media to talk about?

Somewhat. With a 3.5 margin of error, that means that there is a chance(at least in these results) that Arnold and Bustamante are closer than this.

Nevertheless, I think the reason that the GOP wants McClintock out is to be safer rather than sorry. Of course, nothing says that McClintock's conservative base would jump on board with Arnold either.



CRZ
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#27 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.65
All over the news is the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll...

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/09/28/recall.poll/

Recall ahead 63-35

Arnold up 40-25-18

±4%, claims Gallup

There were almost as many Davis attack ads on TV last night as there were Bustamante ads. (And boy, some of those tribe-sponsored Bustamante ads looked SOOOOOOOO CHEESY)



CRZ
redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

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#28 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.23
On the latest poll, I have faith that the recall number is probably a reliable number (everything except the LA Times has had it around 58-60 consistently for recall, so 63 would be in the margin of error), but the 40-25-18-5 (wouldn't it be hysterical if the Green Party screwed the Democratic Party again) number seems too dramatic a turn to be considered reliable. The 9th Circuit's initial decision is going to be the moment that gets looked back upon as what killed Davis' chances, as the bump from the Clinton visit disappeared within the vacuum of whether the election would actually occur.



Time to do a Red Sox pennant chase supply list: Arsenic: check. Cyanide: check. Booze: check. Fully loaded gun for full chamber Russian Roulette: check. Ok, I'm prepared, let the pennant race commence.
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#29 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.65
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    On the latest poll, I have faith that the recall number is probably a reliable number (everything except the LA Times has had it around 58-60 consistently for recall, so 63 would be in the margin of error), but the 40-25-18-5 (wouldn't it be hysterical if the Green Party screwed the Democratic Party again) number seems too dramatic a turn to be considered reliable.
Well, I think the margin of error AND a debate bump could account for the increase/decrease between Schwarzenegger and Bustamante. It also would have been helpful if we'd had a previous poll result from Gallup to compare this one to.

    The 9th Circuit's initial decision is going to be the moment that gets looked back upon as what killed Davis' chances, as the bump from the Clinton visit disappeared within the vacuum of whether the election would actually occur.
I'll wait and see, but my thinking is we'll look back at Arnold's "win by not losing" performance at the debate as the moment that iced it.

Of course, you could also ask Ol' Fuzzy about how I thought things would turn out right from the get-go...right after his two week suspension, that is... ;-)



CRZ
OlFuzzyBastard
Knackwurst








Since: 28.4.02
From: Pittsburgh, PA

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#30 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.80
    Originally posted by CRZ
    Of course, you could also ask Ol' Fuzzy about how I thought things would turn out right from the get-go...right after his two week suspension, that is... ;-)


Hey, it's not over yet and there's still a good chance that... *sigh* I'll pack my things.



"The most important thing is for us to find Osama Bin Laden. It is our number one priority and we will not rest until he find him."
-George W. Bush, September 13, 2001

"I don't know where he is. I have no idea and I really don't care. It's not that important. It's not our priority."
George W. Bush, March 13, 2002
Grimis
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Since: 11.7.02
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#31 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
Incidentally, looks like Cruz has some more problems of his own:

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante got credit but did not have to attend a basic speech class at Fresno State in the late 1990s because a professor decided in 15 minutes or less that the Fresno Democrat would have earned at least a C based on his public utterances.

Bustamante left Fresno State in the late 1970s without earning a bachelor's degree but returned 20 years later to complete it, which he did this spring. He needed to take approximately eight classes, and the speech class satisfied a general-education requirement.

"In my judgment at the time, he had certainly demonstrated minimal proficiency, and I emphasize minimal proficiency ... in the fundamental skills mandated by the course," Robert Powell, former chairman of the communication department, said last week. He interjected: "I'm not going to make any judgment about the eloquence or anything else" of Bustamante's speeches.




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spf
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

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#32 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.23
I have a feeling that this race will turn out tighter than the polls are saying, at least in terms of the next gov. of CA. To me Arnie seems kind of like Perot in '92 was for a lot of people, that is he is a good idea until the very last minute. IIRC, Perot was polling around 24-26% in the final days leading up to the '92 election, but on election night he came in around 19%, as a lot of people just couldn't pull the trigger on him. I'm not sure it'll be enough to put Bustamante in the lead, but it will likely up McClintock's numbers a couple points. Sadly I fear the recall vote is out of reach, as the 9th circuit likely killed any momentum Davis had been building.



Coming to Chicago Nov. 12...I am SO there! - Brenda Weiler

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Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1214 days
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#33 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
Yeah, but it looks like Arianna's gonna bail:

Independent commentator Arianna Huffington said Monday she is strongly considering leaving the recall race, signaling a growing fear among the political left that Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger stands a good chance of becoming California's next governor.

Huffington, appearing at a campaign event in San Francisco, said she would decide as soon as today whether to urge her supporters to oppose the recall and possibly back Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante -- reflecting the view that in a close race, votes by progressives for Huffington and Green Party candidate Peter Camejo could help elect Schwarzenegger.

"I'm talking to a lot of supporters and people who are part of the campaign. I'm going to make a decision later this week," she told reporters.




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You're talking about the infamous KROQ "Confess Your Crimes" segment of the Kevin & Bean Morning show. Archived article at TOTSE: http://www.totse.com/en/media/radio_free_amerika/radhoax.
Related threads: CA GCOTD: BURTON - CA GCOTD: BRITTON - CA GCOTD: WEBER - More...
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