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The W - Current Events & Politics - Flea - What the hell is going on in Financials?
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Guru Zim
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Since: 9.12.01
From: Bay City, OR

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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.17
Break it down for me. Is AIG toast?




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emma
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Since: 1.8.02
From: Phoenix-ish

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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.33
I hadn't even heard about Merrill Lynch selling themselves to Bank of America!

(Even as high as it is right now, gold is startin' to look better every day!)

(edited by emma on 16.9.08 1703)
Doc_whiskey
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Since: 6.8.02
From: St. Louis

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#3 Posted on
    Originally posted by Guru Zim
    Break it down for me. Is AIG toast?


Watch a re-run of Mad Money tonight on CNBC, Jim Cramer did a pretty good job of breaking it down.



Lisa: Poor predicatble Bart, always picks rock
Bart: Good ole rock, nothing beats that
redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

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#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.52
If the Fed had just let the market correct itself naturally last summer rather than trying to rig the game every time something negative occurred, things probably would have turned around now. They bail out AIG and it will help the markets for a day or 2, but things will then fall apart when the next shoe drops. Wait until the credit card defaults start hitting, the stimulus package only delayed that inevitability from occurring. Once the people who are maxing out their credit cards and paying the 30% penalty vig in order to avoid foreclosure finally capitulate, look out below on commercial banks.
hansen9j
Andouille








Since: 7.11.02
From: Riderville, SK

Since last post: 1 day
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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.36
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    If the Fed had just let the market correct itself naturally last summer rather than trying to rig the game every time something negative occurred, things probably would have turned around now. They bail out AIG and it will help the markets for a day or 2, but things will then fall apart when the next shoe drops. Wait until the credit card defaults start hitting, the stimulus package only delayed that inevitability from occurring. Once the people who are maxing out their credit cards and paying the 30% penalty vig in order to avoid foreclosure finally capitulate, look out below on commercial banks.


Two thoughts:

1) Without the past bailouts, the market still would have been sunk, but probably not to this degree. They kept it afloat, but kept pushing back the cost in hopes that it would recover.

2) Most reports I've read have suggested that people have been paying off their credit cards at the expense of their loan payments, largely because they already had negative equity, since they were even less likely to be foreclosed that a late paid mortgage with actual recovery.



It is the policy of the documentary crew to remain true observers and not interfere with its subjects.

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Since: 6.1.04
From: New York

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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.71
    Originally posted by Doc_whiskey
    Watch a re-run of Mad Money tonight on CNBC, Jim Cramer did a pretty good job of breaking it down.


Is this the same Jim Cramer who told everyone that Bear Sterns was a BUY BUY BUY days before IT went under?

I'll pass... ;-)
Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

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#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
Click Here (news.yahoo.com)

AIG gets $85 million billion in bailout money. Wow. Over the weekend, the Fed refused to bail out Lehman Bros. Why the change of heart for AIG?


EDIT

Click Here (news.yahoo.com)


Now, Barclay's is buying Lehman's banking division for $250 million.

(edited by Zeruel on 17.9.08 0050)

(edited by Zeruel on 17.9.08 2250)

-- 2006 Time magazine Person of the Year --

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emma
Cherries > Peaches








Since: 1.8.02
From: Phoenix-ish

Since last post: 157 days
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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.33
AIG is actually a bigger problem. Regional banks (money.cnn.com) in the US could have major ripple effect from AIG crashing. And, I'm still looking for an article I saw earlier today that had a very clear discussion about the exposure that some non-trivial overseas banks (besides the domestic ones) have on AIG.

edit: "How Banks Depend on AIG" (bbc.co.uk)

I'm no expert, but by my best understanding, it goes something lie this: A bunch of banks, in the US & overseas, took out insurance through AIG against high-risk loans they were giving. Because those high-risk loans were insured by somebody, the respective banking regulators then let those institutions offer yet more loans, based on the security of that first round. Bt if AIG fails, *&* various of those loans start to default (which is looking likely), then those institutions start to fail in a domino effect.

At least that's what I understood of it.

Ugly.

(I just can't figure out where the prudent bear should be holed up!!! Not even sure whether Prudent Bear Fund will work!)


(edited by emma on 16.9.08 2329)
lotjx
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Since: 5.9.08

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#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.92
I do have a few questions.

If these loan default ie student loans and mortgages does the consumer have to buy it all back or do they have to scramble to get another loan? Won't be easier just to wipe out the loans through bankruptcy or does the new bankruptcy laws we put in effect just delay the inevitable part of buying all of it back? How long can the U.S. government buy these banks out and not destroy our economy?
Big Bad
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Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.56
    Originally posted by Von Maestro
      Originally posted by Doc_whiskey
      Watch a re-run of Mad Money tonight on CNBC, Jim Cramer did a pretty good job of breaking it down.


    Is this the same Jim Cramer who told everyone that Bear Sterns was a BUY BUY BUY days before IT went under?

    I'll pass... ;-)


On the bright side, Cramer did upgrade the Bluth Company to 'risky.'



“How is it that I am a good actor? What I do is I... pretend to be the person I’m portraying. You’re confused. Case in point: in Lord of the Rings, Peter Jackson comes to me and says ‘I would like you to be Gandalf the Wizard,’ and I said ‘You are aware that I am not really a wizard?’ and Peter Jackson said ‘I would like you to use your acting skills to portray a wizard for the duration of the show.’ So I said ‘Okay’ and then I said to myself ‘Mmm.. How do I do that?’ And this is what I did: I imagined that I was a wizard, and then I pretended, and acted, in that way on the stage. How did I know what to say? The words were written down for me in a script. How did I know where to stand? People told me where to stand." -- Sir Ian McKellen, Extras
RYDER FAKIN
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Since: 21.2.02
From: ORLANDO

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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.17
There was no chance that the Fed would have let AIG fail - the absurd part of it is they could have done the bailout on Sunday evening instead of allowing the company to lose all of it's value and put the market in turmoil

AIG originally had until 9/25 to provide a restructure plan (i.e - sell off assets) - Merrill and Lehman going under made the Fed force AIG into a corner immediately - without a "buyer", so to speak. Which they knew - but instead of coming with the bailout at that moment, we had a cat and mouse game.

Today should be interesting. The Fed held off on the "feel good" lowering of the interest rate - I'm sure they will come back to that; the larger problem is that AIG, as we know it, is now in the hands of the government, pending a fire sale. Would YOU buy a stock like that?

FLEA



Demonstrations are a drag. Besides, we're much too high
Doc_whiskey
Frankfurter








Since: 6.8.02
From: St. Louis

Since last post: 29 days
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#12 Posted on
    Originally posted by Von Maestro
      Originally posted by Doc_whiskey
      Watch a re-run of Mad Money tonight on CNBC, Jim Cramer did a pretty good job of breaking it down.


    Is this the same Jim Cramer who told everyone that Bear Sterns was a BUY BUY BUY days before IT went under?

    I'll pass... ;-)


Slight correction to you

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/03/18/defending-jim-cramers-bear-stearns-call/



Lisa: Poor predicatble Bart, always picks rock
Bart: Good ole rock, nothing beats that
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Andouille








Since: 9.1.02
From: Winnipeg, MB, Canada

Since last post: 12 days
Last activity: 1 day
#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.12
    Originally posted by Zeruel
    Click Here (news.yahoo.com)

    AIG gets $85 million in bailout money. Wow.



Even bigger wow: That 85 million should actually say 85 "billion".
Reverend J Shaft
Liverwurst








Since: 25.6.03
From: Home of The Big House

Since last post: 16 days
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#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 0.95
Not that we all shouldn't be concerned about the current state of Wall Street, but these guys seemed pretty happy about the news of Lehman filing Chapter 11.

(I've been hearing rumblings that Barclays may buy out Lehman, too, so all is not lost yet.)
Guru Zim
SQL Dejection
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Since: 9.12.01
From: Bay City, OR

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#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.18
    Originally posted by RYDER FAKIN
    Would YOU buy a stock like that?

    FLEA



Who me? You know I'm a shareholder I'm a sucker.

I've got WaMu also.




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emma
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Since: 1.8.02
From: Phoenix-ish

Since last post: 157 days
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#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.33
    Originally posted by Guru Zim
    I've got WaMu also.
You shoulda scarfed up a little Wachovia too, out in the middle of the frenzy. Just to round out the portfolio. :-)
RYDER FAKIN
Six Degrees of Me








Since: 21.2.02
From: ORLANDO

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#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.17
Here's a good article, for reference, detailing what a hole we are in. I probably shouldn't even start on the need for America to become Imperialists - and not half-assed ones that are afraid to get some rape and pillage blood on the hands. What's the world doing walking around with OUR money?

Click Here (us.ft.com)

Now, everyone has the same question: how much worse can this get? This lack of confidence is self-fulfilling and endangers other financial institutions. These are companies that re­finance themselves in the capital markets every day. They depend on the confidence of lenders. But, if that disappears, their solvency is threatened. This is where we are now.

- from the article linked above

GURU says:

Who me? You know I'm a shareholder I'm a sucker.

I've got WaMu also.


FLEA ADVICE - Don't forget at tax time to check into writing off the loss(es) (key word is "worthless") - AND QUIT BUYING STOCK ;-)

FLEA



Demonstrations are a drag. Besides, we're much too high
Guru Zim
SQL Dejection
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Since: 9.12.01
From: Bay City, OR

Since last post: 7 hours
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#18 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.40
Well I kept it under what I could write off this year. It's still cheaper than finding a bookie :)




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Oliver
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Since: 20.6.02
From: #YEG

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#19 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.43
I kinda wish federal governments would offer these loans to airlines who are pretty much dead, so that people aren't stranded in the middle of nowhere during their trips.

Words cannot express how disappointed I am in the failures of Canada 3000, Jetsgo, and other airlines when they shut down.

I know, different subject, but still...that irks me.




You wouldn't like Ozu Makito when he's mad!
redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 425 days
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#20 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.52
    Originally posted by emma
    I hadn't even heard about Merrill Lynch selling themselves to Bank of America!

    (Even as high as it is right now, gold is startin' to look better every day!)

    (edited by emma on 16.9.08 1703)





If you bought it when you typed it, you would already have made around $100 per ounce after gold soared while everything else plummetted. If everything is going to implode, let Goldman Sachs suffer after all the times their former employees who get big positions running things for the government have 'helped' their former employers.
Anyway I can get the matching part of my 401k in lottery tickets?

(edited by redsoxnation on 17.9.08 2040)
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So Iran's president, Mohammed Khatemi, makes a historic visit to Lebanon, with a stadium full of people to greet him...looks like opening freakin' ceremonies for the Olympics.
- The Thrill, Man, I can't figure out Iran. (2003)
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