Fantasy Baseball #6: Fantasy All-Star Pitchers + Stolen Bases
Fantasy Baseball All-Star Pitchers:
The new system for picking the All-Stars was supposed to be a more fair system. Instead it is even worse than the previous method. They say it was just a popularity contest with the fans voting, but the players vote on popularity too. Only the players use secret ballots so nobody can tell who voted for who. Somehow they missed out on both the Hall of Fame players like Roger Clemens and the rookie sensations like Dontelle Willis. At least the Met fans get to see their hero Benitez in the game.
My selection is more fair because I go strictly by the numbers. I use my patented SkP point system where I award points based on a weighted average in the five categories of Wins, Saves, Ks, ERA, and WHIP. I picked 12 pitchers in each league, including 4 relievers. I give my numbers so you can see how they all rank. It is their value based on each inning that they pitch. The reason the NL guys have higher numbers is because they don’t have to face a DH. All things being equal the NL pitchers are better and relievers are better than starters. The statistics are as of 07/10/03.
Starter : Pedro Martinez – 25 Starter : Mike Mussina – 25 Starter : Esteban Loaiza – 24 Starter : Roger Clemens – 14 Starter : Jamie Moyer – 14 Starter : Roy Halladay – 12 Starter : Gil Meche - 11 Starter : Mark Mulder – 11
Starter : Jason Schmidt – 28 Starter : Dontrelle Willis – 28 Starter : Kevin Brown – 23 Starter : Brandon Webb – 22 Starter : Mark Prior – 22 Starter : Kerry Wood – 21 Starter : Hideo Nomo- 17 Starter : Randy Wolf – 17
Reliever : Eric Gagne – 56 Reliever : Octavio Dotel – 47 Reliever : John Smoltz – 42 Reliever : Billy Wagner – 33
I always understood the value of the stolen base in baseball. Every major league team should have at least one guy on their bench who can steal bases. It would be great if he could sacrifice bunt as well, but that might be asking for too much. If the National League really wanted to win the All-Star Game, wouldn’t they want Juan Pierre on the bench. In a close game in the ninth inning, you’d think they’d want a pinch-runner who will steal bases.
Only stolen bases are only good when they guy doesn’t get caught. If he often gets caught, it isn’t worth the risk. To get the net value of the stolen base, you need to subtract two steals for every one caught stealing. Using this formula, here are the real top steals guys in baseball.
Beltran : 23 SB, 1 CS, 21 Net SB. Pierre : 41 SB, 10 CS, 21 Net SB. Soriano : 25 SB, 4 CS, 17 Net SB. Renteria: 22 SB, 3 CS, 16 Net SB. Roberts : 24 SB, 5 CS, 14 Net SB. Damon: 18 SB, 2 CS, 14 Net SB. Crawford: 21 SB, 4 CS, 13 Net SB. Young : 19 SB, 3 CS, 13 Net SB. Ichiro: 24 SB, 6 CS, 12 Net SB. Podsednik:18 SB, 5 CS, 8 Net SB. Sanchez: 23 SB, 15 CS, -7 Net SB.
Bottom Line: Somebody should tie an anchor around Sanchez. He is killing Detroit. Beltran should still more bases. Keep running until they can catch him.
Who is better?
Carl Crawford or Jay Gibbons
This issue came up because my fantasy team is just too good. I have 4 top outfielders in Manny Ramirez, Juan Encarnacion, Jay Gibbons, and Carl Crawford. I can only play 3 of them because I have Jason Giambi as my DH and Carlos Delgado at first base.
The real baseball team would probably take Gibbons because of his run production. He even looks like a better fantasy player because Gibbons is better in 4 categories: especially homeruns and RBIs. But lets take a closer look.
The average team in our league has 96 HR, 47 SB, 400 Runs, 375 RBIs, and a .277 Average. This gives them 52.5 points in the standings in the middle of 20 teams with 10.5 points in each category. Replacing Gibbons with Crawford will give that team numbers of 84 HR, 68 SB, 391 Runs, 343 RBIs, and .275 Average for a total of 46.0 points. So Gibbons is more valuable to the average fantasy team.
But, I also did the math for MY TEAM and because I am already leading in HRs, Runs, and RBIs Crawford adds 2.5 points to my team because his steals will put me at the top of that category and I can afford the hit in the other four. So the answer is usually Gibbons, but it depends on your team. Steals are more valuable than people think.
Bottom of the Barrell Award:
Best Waiver Pick of the Week: Southern Panthers
The signing of the new closers from Toronto and Detroit were great moves. I wasn’t quick enough to add them myself. Acevedo and Mears will pick up saves this year. They’d help me out a lot more than Craig Counsell.
My favorite pick was when the Panthers took Tom Goodwin Goodwin is already among the league leaders in saves and has gotten very little playing time. Now that Patterson is out for the year he’ll be playing every day. You can expect at least a 40 SB season from him. Knowing how valuable steals are, he should start on any fantasy team.
They have to get a new field manager before they get too far into the offseason, they'll want to have the new GM hired to be part of that discussion, and so they can't wait until the season is over to make that move.