Well the Louisville win is probably good for Big East fans (unless you're a WVU fan of course). Even though Louisville was lower in the polls and BCS they are actually ranked higher by the computer rankings. This win should move them up some more in the computer rankings and should move them into 3rd in the polls, putting them in better shape than WVU was before this game. The only two questions now are how much would Auburn or Florida gain from winning an extra Championship game and how much will Ohio State or Michigan drop when they lose.
Michigan and Ohio State struggling against weaker competition this weekend might help Louisville/1 loss teams, as this could make it less likely that a Michigan/Ohio State rematch occurs. Weird that Florida could go play for a national title because Ron Zook only lost by 7. You can't spell quit without The U. Does hurt Louisville each time Miami loses though, as it no longer appears as the quality win that it was in September. When the going gets tough, Boston College finds a way to screw up. Enjoy the Music City Bowl. LSU did virtually everything possible to screw up the game against Tennessee, then their offense finally decides to do something right in the last 2 minutes. The possibility of a 1 loss Tennessee being in the Top 6 and not going to the BCS is now gone. Another trip to the Peyton Manning Citrus Bowl for UT? Maybe Arkansas will find a way to win 2 out of 3 and keep Auburn out of the conference title game. That would make things very interesting in the polls. Stanford was wrong team at the wrong time against USC. Anyway a Michigan State/Georgia Quitter Bowl match-up could be arranged? This might have been the end of Paterno. And, the Wisconsin coach did find a very large loophole in the clock running rule. Either that or his kicker is 10 yards slower than the rest of the kickoff unit.
Originally posted by redsoxnationThis might have been the end of Paterno. And, the Wisconsin coach did find a very large loophole in the clock running rule. Either that or his kicker is 10 yards slower than the rest of the kickoff unit.
Coach Bielema admitted that they took advantage of the rule. I thought it was good coaching -- look for it to happen more.
Originally posted by redsoxnationMichigan and Ohio State struggling against weaker competition this weekend might help Louisville/1 loss teams, as this could make it less likely that a Michigan/Ohio State rematch occurs. Weird that Florida could go play for a national title because Ron Zook only lost by 7.
That doesn't make any sense. Why would it hurt Ohio State or Michigan when it didn't seem to hurt Auburn (who struggled to beat Ole Miss) or Florida (Vanderbilt).
To me, the surprise isn't so much that OSU/Michigan got caught looking ahead, it's that they got caught looking ahead on the same weekend. Remember, they've been hyping this OSU/Michigan game for at least four weeks now-I don't care how well the teams are coached, it's impossible to keep those kids from thinking a few weeks ahead...especially given the competition in front of them.
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Florida's close win to Vanderbilt did hurt them they dropped from 4th in the computer average to 5th. It's just overshadowed by the fact that they are 6th in both polls instead of 7th last week because of WVU's loss. The polls outweigh the computers so the increase in the polls helped more than the computer rankings hurt. Same thing for Auburn when they just barely beat Ole Miss they dropped from 6th in the computers to 7th but since they moved up from 7th to 6th in the polls that made up for it.
However, Michigan and Ohio State's close wins didn't show any in the rankings so far. I'm sure the close losses hurt their computer scores in some way but they are still 1 and 2 in both polls and the computer rankings so they still have about the same score. However, when one team finally loses then the computer score might be lower than it would have if they won by a lot today.
(edited by Quezzy on 6.11.06 0121) Lance's Response:
Originally posted by Quezzy I'm sure the close losses hurt their computer scores in some way but they are still 1 and 2 in both polls and the computer rankings so they still have about the same score.
The BCS rules keep changing every year so I can't remember if Margin of Victory (MoV) is limited to 28 points or had been eliminated completely for the computers.
I think MoV had to be removed completely, which is why the New York times was removed as a computer poll because they refused to remove MoV.
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Yeah, there's no margin of victory in the computer polls. So Sagarin, for example, has three different ratings systems. The one the BCS uses, ELO CHESS, is the one without any margin of victory. So if a team is going to fall because of a close match, then the human polls are going to have to be the ones to do it, which they never do.
Florida and Auburn might have fallen just because they played a bad team. Playing a bad team, even if you beat them, can lower your Strength of Schedule, and therefore you ranking.
Or it could have been because some of the teams that they beat lost that week. For instance, both Tennessee and Alabama, which were teams that Florida had beaten, lost last week. That would have dropped them in the computer rankings, which in turn would have dropped Florida's Strength of Schedule.
Or it might not have anything to do with Florida and Auburn at all. The team that moved past Florida in the computer rankings was Louisville, who obviously just had the big win over West Virginia. The computers could have calculated that that win makes West Virginia better than Florida.
In terms of these close wins coming back to haunt Ohio State/Michigan: One of them has to lose when they face each other. It is one of the few concrete items in college football. That means one of them has to drop. This could put the thought in voters heads that they struggled against inferior competition, then did whatever occurs this weekend against Indiana/Northwestern, then lost the next weekend when they oppose each other. This possible weakness might cause the voters to drop the loser to 6 instead of 4, which would make a rematch more unlikely. Now, a real wacky scenario to throw into the mix: Big East has no unbeaten teams at the end of the year. Arkansas loses once more before the SEC Title game, thus having 2 losses but winning their division. Ohio State wins by double digits over Michigan. Arkansas defeats Florida in the SEC Title game to get the automatic bid and giving Florida 2 losses. Auburn wins out. Texas wins out. USC destroys Oregon, 1 loss Cal, 1 loss Notre Dame and UCLA. Now, who plays Ohio State in that scenario: Texas (in a rematch of a double digit home loss), Auburn (who doesn't win their conference) or USC?
Difference being Georgia had zero desire to play that game last year. I don't see Notre Dame being that lucky here. Though honestly I don't see that game as a blowout anyway. I think ND matches up with LSU better than they did USC and Michigan.