Only one or two games left in most colleges seasons, it's time for a conference tiebreakers report. Let's go alphabetically (odds are given as if every game had a 50/50 outcome).
ACC: Florida State has won the Atlantic Division (100%). Miami clinches with two wins or a win and a Virginia Tech loss (62.5%). Virginia Tech can win the Coastal with two wins and a Miami loss, or a win and two Miami losses (31.25%). Virginia can win the Coastal with two wins, two VT losses, and two Miami losses (6.25%).
Big 12: Texas has won the Southern Division (100%). Colorado clinches the Northern Division with a win or an Iowa State loss (75%). Iowa State wins the Northern Division with a win and a Colorado loss and a Missouri loss (12.5%). Missouri wins the Northern Division with a win and a Colorado loss and an Iowa State win (12.5%).
Big East: South Florida and West Virginia each control their own destiny. West Virginia clinches the Big East with a win against South Florida, or with a win against Pittsburgh and a South Florida loss (68.75%). South Florida clinches the Big East with 3 wins (12.5%). Pittsburgh wins the Big East with a win, a South Florida win over West Virginia, and either a Louisville loss or exactly one other South Florida win (17.1875%). If West Virginia loses both games, Louisville wins both, and South Florida loses the other two (besides their game against West Virginia), the Big East champ is whichever is the highest in the BCS rankings (1.5625%).
Big Ten: Penn State clinches the Big Ten with a win (50%). Ohio State wins the Big Ten with a win and a Penn State loss (25%). Michigan wins the Big Ten with a win and a Penn State loss (25%).
C-USA: Central Florida clinches the East Division with a win or a Southern Miss loss (87.5%). Southern Miss wins the East division with two wins and a Central Florida loss (12.5%). UTEP clinches West Division with a win or a Tulsa loss (87.5%). Tulsa wins West Division with a win and two UTEP losses (12.5%).
MAC: Bowling Green clinches East division with two wins or a win over Miami and an Akron loss (43.75%). Miami clinches East Division with two wins or a win over Bowling Green and two Ohio losses (34.375%). Ohio wins East Division with two wins and two Bowling Green loses (6.25%). Akron wins East Division with two wins and two Miami losses and a Bowling Green loss to Toledo (3.125%). There is a 12.5% chance of a 3-way-tie involving Miami, Bowling Green, and either Akron or Ohio in which each team has gone 1-1 against the other two. I can't find the MAC tiebreakers online, so I don't know what the next tiebreaker is. Toledo wins West Division with two wins (or a win and a Northern Illinois loss) (62.5%). Northern Illinois wins West Division with two wins (25%). Western Michigan wins West Division with a win and two Toledo losses (12.5%).
Mountain West: TCU has clinched the Mountain West Conference Championship.
Pac-10: USC clinches the Pac-10 with a win (50%). UCLA wins the Pac-10 with a win (50%).
SEC: LSU clinches West with two wins (25%). Alabama wins West with a win and an LSU loss (37.5%). Auburn wins West with a win and an LSU loss (37.5%). Georgia wins East with a win over Kentucky(50%). South Carolina wins East with a Georgia loss to Kentucky (50%).
Sun Belt: Lousiana-Monroe clinches Sun Belt with a win over Louisiana-Lafeyette (50%). Louisiana-Lafeyette wins Sun Belt with a win and an Arkansas State loss (25%). Arkansas State wins Sun Belt with a win and two Louisiana-Monroe losses (12.5%). There is a 12.5% chance of a 3 way tie, in which I believe all 3 are named co-champions and the New Orleans Bowl picks the Sun Belt representative.
WAC: Fresno State clinches WAC with two conference wins or a win and a Louisana Tech loss and a Nevada loss (50%). Louisana Tech wins WAC with two wins and a Nevada loss (18.75%). Nevada wins WAC with two wins and a Boise State loss (18.75%). Boise State wins WAC with two wins and two Fresno State conference loses or a win over Lousiana Tech, two Fresno State losses and a Nevada loss to Utah State (9.375%) There is a 3.125% chance that Fresno State, Nevada, and Boise State could be tied with 7 conference wins. The Bowl Selection Committee would then choose the champion.
EDIT: Fixed a mistake I made with the Pac 10.
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Michigan also needs to beat Ohio State to win the Big Ten. If that happens, and PSU loses, all 3 top Big Ten teams will have two conference losses. Michigan would then hold the tiebreakers over both other teams.
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