The W
Views: 95706606
Main | FAQ | Search: Y! / G | Calendar | Color chart | Log in for more!
21.4.14 0235
The W - Current Events & Politics - Coleman/Franken recount.
This thread has 12 referrals leading to it
Register and log in to post!
Thread rated: 4.48
Pages: 1
(273 newer) Next thread | Previous thread
User
Post (18 total)
JimBob Skeeter
Bratwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: MN

Since last post: 3 days
Last activity: 2 days
#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.43
This one is gonna be a while, folks:

____________________________________________________


http://www.kare11.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=528872&catid=2

Could recount rewrite the Senate race?

A mere mention of the word "recount" triggers memories of hanging chads, court battles and Florida in 2000.

But something you should know, say Minnesota election officials, is that this isn't Florida.

"Florida had no state voter intent law like we do, which was one of the reasons that their recount was so chaotic," said Joe Mansky, the chief elections official in Ramsey County.

He explained, as Minnesota prepares to review each of the nearly 3 million ballots cast in the U.S. Senate race here, a state law makes it much easier to decide how those votes should be registered.

Election judges in every county and major cities will look for any marks that clearly indicate a voter's intent. A circle around the candidate's name, a check mark, or an "x" all can be interpreted legally as signaling a voter's intent, even though that voter failed to fill in the optical-scan oval as directed.

Those votes that wouldn't have been counted by a scanning machine will be counted now, and a panel made up of four judges and Secretary of State Mark Ritchie will settle any disputes.

"Any that are questionable or challenged go in a third pile, and they will eventually come to the canvassing board for being determined, ultimately, if we know the voters intent or not," Ritchie said.

As of Wednesday night, Republican incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman was leading his Democratic challenger Al Franken by 477 votes, or .01 percent. A margin narrower than .5 percent triggers an automatic recount under Minnesota state law.

In Ramsey County, Mansky said about two of every 1,000 ballots cast in any given election typically are defective, meaning they weren't counted by the optical scan machines.

Extrapolated statewide, that means there could be almost 6,000 new votes in the recount -- more than enough to swing the election.

Coleman said he was opposed to the recount Wednesday and claimed he won the election. He blamed Franken for the recount, despite the fact that their virtual dead heat automatically triggered the recount.

"Mr. Franken has the right to pursue an official review of the election results," Coleman said. "It is up to him whether such a step is worth the tax dollars it will take to conduct."

Secretary of State Ritchie said the automatic recount would cost three cents per ballot, or roughly $87,000.

Franken said the votes should be counted.

"We are lucky enough to live in a state with built-in protections to ensure that, in close elections like these, the will of the people is accurately reflected in the outcome," Franken said.

The official recount begins in two weeks and could stretch into December or beyond.

Both candidates will send observers to every county to watch the people reviewing the ballots. And both candidates have enlisted former U.S. attorneys to represent them in court if they're not satisfied with the way the recount is going.

David Lillehaug is representing Franken and said they would look into reports of voting irregularities.

Tom Heffelfinger is representing Coleman and said, in a statement, "The Secretary of State must ensure, without delay, the security of all ballots in the state, and to ensure that the voters of Minnesota have the highest degree of confidence that their votes are being protected aggressively."
__________________________________________________________

This may be one race where my one vote might actually count. I voted for Franken, mainly cuz I'm sick of Coleman, and I'm GOP.

I saw this on the news last night and found it very interesting about the recount actually taking those "intended" votes into account. This is going to be an interesting month or three.

-------------------------------------------------------
-edit: down to 337 votes!
http://www.kare11.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=528970&catid=2

Senate race continues to tighten; deficit down to 337 votes

MINNEAPOLIS -- Democrat Al Franken says the recount of votes in his U.S. Senate race should proceed in order to make sure that every vote is counted properly.

Republican Sen. Norm Coleman leads Franken in unofficial returns by 337 votes out of nearly 2.9 million cast. That's well within the margin that triggers an automatic recount.

Coleman has declared himself the victor in the race and said Wednesday that Franken should consider stepping aside. But Franken said on Minnesota Public Radio Thursday morning that "candidates don't get to decide when an election's over -- voters do."

Franken says if the recount determines he lost, then "I'll be the first to congratulate Senator Coleman."





(edited by JimBob Skeeter on 6.11.08 1329)
Promote this thread!
CajunMan
Boudin blanc
No longer registered








Since: 2.1.02
From: Give me a Title shot!

Since last post: 914 days
Last activity: 51 days
#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 0.93
I thought Coleman would have won this race easily. Coleman must have said or did something that really hacked off a bunch of Minnesotans. Then again Minnesota did elect Ventura for Governor.
DJ FrostyFreeze
Knackwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: Hawthorne, CA

Since last post: 4 days
Last activity: 3 hours
#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.27
Read it and weep, fella


    Originally posted by CajunMan
    Then again Minnesota did elect Ventura for Governor.
Did Ventura campaign for either of them?



CLICK OR DIE
JimBob Skeeter
Bratwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: MN

Since last post: 3 days
Last activity: 2 days
#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.43
NOt that I can remember. The only thing Ventura-ish I remember about the campaign was that for about two hours there was a possibility that Ventura was going to run against Coleman. I think it was Jesse's Jack Sparrow beard knock-off that made his advisors tell him not to go.
Mr. Boffo
Scrapple








Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 266 days
Last activity: 227 days
#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.62
Ventura ended up campaigning for Dean Barkley, the 3rd party candidate who ended up receiving about 15% of the vote.
A Rasmussen poll from right before the election said that Barkley had the support of 10% of Democrats and 5% of Republicans. From those numbers one can posit that Barkley played spoiler to Franken.
JimBob Skeeter
Bratwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: MN

Since last post: 3 days
Last activity: 2 days
#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.43
I can't find a link anywhere, but on the local news this morning, they said that a town in MN mis-read Franken'votes in their town as 24 instead of 124, so the split is down to 220-some votes. Out of 2.7 million. That is crazy, but not the closest races:
------------------------------------------------
http://www.sos.state.mn.us/student/Onevote2.htm

In the 2003/ 2004 elections, in the race for MN State Senator between Grace Stabell Schwab (R) and Dan Sparks (DFL), the race was decided by just 7 votes. Schwab received 15,084 while Sparks won with 15,091 votes. That same year, a MN State Representative race was won by just 46 votes, by Rep. Ray Cox (R).
-------------------------------------------------

That's not the closest, tho:

In 1800, Thomas Jefferson was elected as our third President by one vote in the US House of Representatives, after receiving a tie in the Electoral College. That one vote prevented Aaron Burr, who would later be charged with treason, from becoming President.

Peter The Hegemon
Lap cheong








Since: 11.2.03
From: Hackettstown, NJ

Since last post: 4 days
Last activity: 9 hours
#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.02
The closest election of this year was a school board election that actually finished in a tie. http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/28287794.html

It was settled by a coinflip. Somehow it seems to me that there ought to be a better way, but I don't know what it is.
spf
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

Since last post: 3 days
Last activity: 2 days
AIM:  
#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.16
As of this afternoon the margin is now down to 239 votes for Coleman.



2007 W-League Fantasy Football champion!
JimBob Skeeter
Bratwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: MN

Since last post: 3 days
Last activity: 2 days
#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.42
http://www.kare11.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=529224&catid=2

Franken trails Coleman by 204 votes now

One thing is certain: the final margin in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race is still not certain. The day after the election, Sen. Norm Coleman led Al Franken by 725 votes. By Wednesday night the lead was 477 votes. By Thursday night it was 336. As of Monday morning, it's 204.

All 87 counties must certify their results Monday and then send their results to the state by Friday.

The state will certify those results on Nov. 18 and then the statewide recount will start.

Counties must submit their recount results to the state by Dec. 5. The state canvassing board will start meeting on Dec. 16 to rule on disputed ballots.

Here is the official recount timeline:


November 12 - Exact dates, times and locations of county-by-county recounts to be made public


November 18 - State canvassing board approves recount plan


December 5 - Deadline for Counties to complete their recounts and forward disputed ballots to sec of state


December 16 - State canvassing board meets to begin work on disputed ballots


December 19 - State canvassing board to wrap up work on disputed ballots and final count

After the final vote count is certified the campaigns can launch formal legal actions to contest the state's official results.
_______________________________________________________
I bet it gets down to less than 100 by the time recount starts.
Mr. Boffo
Scrapple








Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 266 days
Last activity: 227 days
#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.63
Here's an article from FiveThirtyEight.Com that details the relevant factors to figuring out the eventual winner.
There are two types of correctable errors. There is overvoting, where the machine registers two votes for the same race. This can happen when you've marked one, then you cross it out and mark a second one (my polling place had signs teling me to get a new ballot if I made a mistake, but not everyone is going to see that or know to do that).
The second type is undervoting, where you don't vote at all for one race, even though you've voted for the other races. This can happen if you're filling out the ballot incorrectly, like putting a check mark or an x by the candidates name rather than filling in the circle.

We can figure out the odds of one candidate winning if we can estimate the number of ballots which are going to suffer from those two types of errors (he estimates it at between .25% and .9% of ballots), as well as the percentage of votes the two candidates are going to receive among those corrected ballots. Obviously if the corrected votes go 50/50 (or actually 42/42/16), that means Coleman still wins. Luckily for Franken the demographics that he did well in are the demographics that studies have shown make more of those errors (low income voters, minorities, first-time voters).
But given the range of possible values of these two factors, it's too early to tell how it could end up.
CajunMan
Boudin blanc
No longer registered








Since: 2.1.02
From: Give me a Title shot!

Since last post: 914 days
Last activity: 51 days
#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 0.76
Coleman's lead seems to be shrinking everyday, Something fishy, or just plenty of errors, miscounts?
DrDirt
Banger








Since: 8.10.03
From: flyover country

Since last post: 10 days
Last activity: 2 days
#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.77
    Originally posted by CajunMan
    Coleman's lead seems to be shrinking everyday, Something fishy, or just plenty of errors, miscounts?


Even Franken said today the process in MN is pretty clean. Out of 3,000,000 votes, errors will occur.



Perception is reality
bash91
Merguez








Since: 2.1.02
From: Plain Dealing, LA

Since last post: 613 days
Last activity: 11 hours
#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.18
    Originally posted by CajunMan
    Coleman's lead seems to be shrinking everyday, Something fishy, or just plenty of errors, miscounts?


Yes.

Depending on who you read and who they favor, it seems like all of the above are happening. For instance, according to the Wall Street Journal (online.wsj.com)you've got goofy things like the Director of elections announcing 72 hours after the election that she had forgotten to count 32 absentee ballots that were in the back seat of her car. On the other hand, fivethirtyeight (fivethirtyeight.com) has a fairly convincing argument that the changing vote totals are merely indicative of the demographics of those likely to make errors while filling out their ballot. Either way, I don't think we're ever going to know for sure who the winner "really" was in this race. In addition, it's an absolute certainty that this will end up in court multiple times.

Tim



Vocatus atque non vocatus, Deus aderit. -- Erasmus

All others things being equal, the simplest solution is usually stupidity. -- Darwin Minor
Cerebus
Knackwurst








Since: 17.11.02

Since last post: 5 days
Last activity: 59 min.
#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.48
No matter what the outcome is, I bet Al Franken will turn this mess into an EXCELLENT book.



Forget it Josh... it's Cerebustown.
Caliban
Bauerwurst








Since: 18.5.02
From: Orlando

Since last post: 67 days
Last activity: 2 days
#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.00
It is worth pointing out that Coleman is picking up votes too, not just Franken. Irregularities like this happen in every election, it just happened that this time the race was close enough that they make a difference.
CajunMan
Boudin blanc
No longer registered








Since: 2.1.02
From: Give me a Title shot!

Since last post: 914 days
Last activity: 51 days
#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 0.77
Hmmmm, down to a hand count now. Does Minnesota have CHADS too?
CRZ
Big Brother
Administrator








Since: 9.12.01
From: ミネアポリス

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 9 hours
AIM:  
ICQ:  
Y!:
#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.02
    Originally posted by CajunMan
    Hmmmm, down to a hand count now. Does Minnesota have CHADS too?
Ahahahahahaha no.

Coleman by 215!

NORM!



Mr. Boffo
Scrapple








Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 266 days
Last activity: 227 days
#18 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.62
Minnesota Public Radio has an article showing a bunch of different ballots that have been challenged by one campaign or another. It's amazing how many different ways someone can screw up a ballot.
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2008/11/19_challenged_ballots/

Also interesting is the Minnesota law that says if a voter does something to make their ballot identifiable, the ballot is invalid. So several were challenged on the basis that a signature or a fingerprint is identifiable.

Also: Lizard People.
Currently a 135 vote lead for Coleman, but they'll have to review all the challenged ballots before they're completely done.
Thread rated: 4.48
Pages: 1
Thread ahead: Wal-Mart employee trampled to death on Black Friday
Next thread: Sarah Palin pardons a turkey, then misses 2 others being slaughtered
Previous thread: Lieberman's position
(273 newer) Next thread | Previous thread
By Mark Rasch America's Domestic Spying Renaissance John Ashcroft's decision to unshackle the FBI's domestic surveillance powers seem perfectly reasonable...
The W - Current Events & Politics - Coleman/Franken recount.Register and log in to post!

The W™ message board

ZimBoard
©2001-2014 Brothers Zim

This old hunk of junk rendered your page in 0.14 seconds.