Lexus
Lap cheong
   
   
     
  
Since: 2.1.02
From: Stafford, VA
Since last post: 2 days
Last activity: 3 min.
| AIM: |  |
| | |
|  #1 Posted on 7.4.03 1354.04 | The coyote goes...On the eve of what seems to be a highly successful war in Iraq, and debates already happening on behalf of the Democratic party to find their man, what would you consider George W. Bush's odds are as to winning re-election?
I own a Gamecube, and I own Eternal Darkness.| Promote this thread! |           | MoeGates
Andouille
Since: 6.1.02
From: Brooklyn, NY
Since last post: 3 days
Last activity: 14 hours
| #2 Posted on 7.4.03 1400.16 | Instant Rating: 6.28 | Depends on how long the deal for Karl Rove's soul was for.
It seems that I am - in no particular order - Zack Morris, John Adams, a Siren, Michael Novotny, Janeane Garofalo, Cheer Bear, Aphrodite, a Chihuahua, Data, Cletus the Slack Jawed Yokel, Amy-Wynn Pastor, Hydrogen, Bjork, Spider-Man, Tom Daschle, Boston, and a Chaotic Good Elvin Bard-Mage. | redsoxnation
Scrapple
Since: 24.7.02
Since last post: 22 hours
Last activity: 5 hours
| #3 Posted on 7.4.03 1404.14 | Its 19 months out, so who knows what happens. However, handicapping the field right now, Bush would have to be considered a strong favorite. The Democratic Party looks like they are going to have a street fight for a primary (and remember all non affiliated (coughRepublicancough) voters: Al Sharpton for President in the Democratic Primary). If this war continues to go successfully and everything Bush said turns out to be true, the peace wing of the Democratic Party will be badly damaged, but considering their high percentage in a Democratic Primary, they could still elect a peace candidate like Dean to sacrafice in the general election.
Odds on Winning Presidency [as of now](Party Nomination Odds in Italics).
Republican
Bush: 4-5 (1-20)
Democratic
Dean: 23-1 (8-1)
Kerry: 6-1 (3-1)
Lieberman: 7-1 (4-1)
Gephardt: 19-1 (10-1)
Sharpton: 1,000-1 (75-1)
Mosely-Braun: 500,000-1 (100,000-1)
There is only one man left to save Vince McMahon and the WWF/E. Where have you gone Greg Gagne, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you. | Grimis
Scrapple
Since: 11.7.02
From: MD
Since last post: 752 days
Last activity: 549 days
| #4 Posted on 7.4.03 1412.28 | Instant Rating: 7.29 | My odds, set up like RSN's
GOP
Bush: 2-5 (1-40)
Dems
Dean: 25-1 (6-1; the anti-war stuff plays better than you'd think)
Kerry: 15-1 (8-1; and getting worse with the "regime change" stuff)
Lieberman: 8-1 (4-1)
Gephardt: 11-1 (6-1)
Sharpton: 25,000-1 (1,000-1)
Braun: 1 million-1 (100,000-1)
The Field(everyone else): 25-1 (15-1)
| Downtown Bookie
Morcilla
Since: 7.4.02
From: The Inner City, Now Living In The Country
Since last post: 2 days
Last activity: 8 hours
| #5 Posted on 7.4.03 1451.14 |
Originally posted by Lexus
On the eve of what seems to be a highly successful war in Iraq, and debates already happening on behalf of the Democratic party to find their man, what would you consider George W. Bush's odds are as to winning re-election?
Remember your history. Back in 1991, after the first Gulf War, Bush Sr.'s approval rating with the American people was over 90%. However, by the time the election came around in November of 1992, Bush could only garner fewer than 38% of the popular vote.
The bottom line: Glory is fleeting; approval ratings a year and a half before an election are meaningless. Tell me the condition of the U.S. economy in Autumn 2004 and I'll tell you the odds of Bush Jr. winning a second term.
Patiently waiting to be Stratusfied. | Gavintzu
Summer sausage
Since: 2.1.02
From: Calgary ... Alberta Canada
Since last post: 2349 days
Last activity: 2349 days
|  #6 Posted on 7.4.03 1605.16 | Instant Rating: 0.00 | Downtown Bookie sez:
Remember your history. Back in 1991, after the first Gulf War, Bush Sr.'s approval rating with the American people was over 90%. However, by the time the election came around in November of 1992, Bush could only garner fewer than 38% of the popular vote.
Very good point. And also remember that approval ratings for sitting presidents always seem to be higher than the votes they pull in. I remember a poll done after Dubya's first 100 days gave him 55% ... it seems a little doubtful that millions and millions of Gore and Nader voters completely changed their minds about Bush after only three months on the job.
2000 was of course an incredibly close race ... if the economy continues to shed thousands of jobs a day, and if the Dems nominate someone competent and "presidential", 2004 could be just as close.
Any man who hates small dogs and children can't be all bad. | Grimis
Scrapple
Since: 11.7.02
From: MD
Since last post: 752 days
Last activity: 549 days
| #7 Posted on 7.4.03 1933.16 | Instant Rating: 7.29 |
Originally posted by Gavintzu
and if the Dems nominate someone competenent and "presidential"
That's quite an if...I mean when was the last time they did that, Kennedy?
| spf
Scrapple
Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada
Since last post: 28 days
Last activity: 6 days
| AIM: |  |
| | |
| #8 Posted on 7.4.03 2259.28 | Well Clinton was able to pull it off well enough to be a two-termer ;)
"It is well that war is so terrible, lest we grow too fond of it." - Robert E. Lee
For anyone who thinks that Booker will be going over HHH at Backlash, feel free to PM me about the HHH Challenge. | Big Bad
Scrapple
Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario
Since last post: 10 hours
Last activity: 10 hours
| #9 Posted on 8.4.03 0119.27 | Instant Rating: 5.54 | I thought Kerry dropped out because he has cancer.
And what about Wesley Clark? Is he still in the race?
(edited by Big Bad on 8.4.03 0219)
1000 posts and still not Wiener of the Day!
Are you racist?
Brought to you by the good folks at sacwriters.com.
|
| | | | | | | | | |
