Gray Davis (c) vs. Recall (OlFuzzyBastard vs. CRZ in a loser leaves town for 2 weeks match): This has blowout written all over it. Its also more likely that with a rout apparent, the anti-Gray Davis'ites will be more willing to go to the polls to rub salt in the wounds than the marginal Davis supporters will be to vote for him in a lost cause. Recall 68-32.
Special Sideshow Match:
Gary Coleman vs. Arianna Huffington: Arianna was annoying as a Republican, she's annoying as whatever type populist she claims to be now. Any remnants of political relevance she has dissipates as Gary Coleman outpolls her 2%-1%.
Arnold vs. Bustamante vs. McClintock vs. Green Party vs. Field: The larger the margin of victory for Recall, the worse the chances for Bustamante, as he gets the Carter in California in '80 treatment (Democrats don't bother turning out in large numbers). Although I still find it hard to see the two Republicans getting close to 60% of the vote, low Democratic turnout plus celebrity novelty somehow pulls it off: Arnold 36%, Bustamante 30%, McClintock 21%, Green Party 7%, Field 6%. Technically, the Green Party will toss the election to Arnold.
(edited by redsoxnation on 30.9.03 1006) Time to do a Red Sox pennant chase supply list: Arsenic: check. Cyanide: check. Booze: check. Fully loaded gun for full chamber Russian Roulette: check. Ok, I'm prepared, let the pennant race commence.
Davis vs Recall: This is a laugher. Davis will be recalled with a minimun 60 percent of the vote.
Coleman v Huffington: Coleman is a more realistic candidate than Huffington has been, which shows how bad she's been. Huffington, though has loyal followers; Coleman endorsed Arnold. Arianna beats Coleman, but doesn't get more than 3 percent total....but I hope Gallagher beats them both.
The Main Event: Nobody is going to crack 40 percent, and probably nobody will crack 35 either. Bustamante keeps tripping over his own feet(and getting no help from Davis either), while Arnold manages to dodge the McClintock landmine. McClintock, the guy California actually needs to win to get things moving, will be a distant but solid third. Camejo sounds more like a competent Democratic/liberal choice than Bustamante does, which is bad news for the Donkeys. Totals will be:
Much like with the indie vote in any demographic, that Nader number will go down the closer we get to the election. Though every Nader vote sucks for Kerry, it won't be quite as abysmal as it looks right now.