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The W - Current Events & Politics - Bush will win in '04 (Page 2)
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BigDaddyLoco
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02

Since last post: 2 days
Last activity: 9 hours
#21 Posted on
Is Rudy waiting until '08?



DMC
Liverwurst








Since: 8.1.02
From: Modesto, CA

Since last post: 3441 days
Last activity: 3435 days
#22 Posted on
That's almost as laughable as my suggestion of Keyes. Where you at, Moe?

DMC



Proverbs 9:8
Dahak
Frankfurter








Since: 12.5.02
From: Junction City OR.

Since last post: 1992 days
Last activity: 1645 days
#23 Posted on
I said this before in the "Who will the Dems run in 04" thread. The GOP needs to get rid of Cheney. The dual rich white male ticket will eventually bite the GOP in the ass. Replace Cheney with a woman or a minority to beat the Dems to the punch. Yes I remember Feraro but that was when the Democrats knew they had no chance in hell of winning and it was a joke. If Bush looks strong then replace Cheney. After all what does he gain them in 08? A 70 year old canidate with a heart problem? Pick someone younger in 04 and go for the jugular.



Marge I am just trying to get into heaven not run for Jesus.
MoeGates
Andouille








Since: 6.1.02
From: Brooklyn, NY

Since last post: 30 days
Last activity: 1 day
#24 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.02
Rev. Al's problem is that he's always overreaching. He runs for stuff like Mayor and Senate to make a point and to get press and to try and take the "Head Negro in Charge" title from Jesse Jackson. He could easily get elected to state office, and probably could even take Ed Towns' or Major Owens' Congressional seat away from one of them without too much trouble if he wanted (they're two political hack representives from Brooklyn, and collectively waste 50 years of seniority for New York City).

Charlie Rangle's Harlem Congressional seat is probably the only one that would interest him though, as it's essentially considered the most prestigious minority-held Congressional seat in Nation (even though the South Side of Chicago has had minority representation in Congress longer than Harlem), and Al could make a case that by holding that seat he speaks for Black America or whatever.

If it makes you feel any better DMC, yes, Al Sharpton as president is even more of a pipe dream than Alan Keyes as president. I'll qualify that by saying that I do think Al Sharpton as the Democratic nominee for president is less of a pipe dream than Alan Keyes as the Republican nominee for president.

As I've said before though, while I wouldn't vote for the guy (actually, I would vote for him over that waste of space that's my representative, Major Owens) I do think Al Sharpton gets an underserved bad rap, and that many people use him as a bogeyman without really even listening to his ideas or what he's really trying to say. Yes, he's essentially an egomaniacal media hound, but no more than your average politician, and certainly no more than our current Senior Senator from New York, Chuck Schumer. As I usually say when the Rev. Al comes up in this forum, I urge people to read his campaign book "Al on America" and keep an open mind before passing judgement on the guy.

To give you conservatives a counter-example you might be familiar with, you know how you guys hate it and think it's cheap button-pushing when Dems cry "racist" at people like Trent Lott and Strom Thurmond? That's essentially how I feel when people start calling "reverse racist" at Al.

EDIT: Upon further inspection of the maps, I've concluded Al could oust Ed Towns from his congressional seat, but not Major Owens. Al could probably win Owens' seat if he retired though.

(edited by MoeGates on 3.1.03 2247)


It seems that I am - in no particular order - Zack Morris, John Adams, a Siren, Aphrodite, Cletus the Slack Jawed Yokel, Amy-Wynn Pastor, Hydrogen, Spider-Man, and Boston.
DMC
Liverwurst








Since: 8.1.02
From: Modesto, CA

Since last post: 3441 days
Last activity: 3435 days
#25 Posted on
I meant that Guiliani is laughable. Too liberal for the base and New Yorkers would likely pull up all kinds of bad memories of him.

Again I don't think Frist is the way to go for the Republicans in 04, but I do still agree that a minority or female candidate would pretty much blow the Democrats out of the water. I just don't know if the "fat cat" Republicans who control everything would go for it. How about Condy Rice though?

DMC



Proverbs 9:8
BigDaddyLoco
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02

Since last post: 2 days
Last activity: 9 hours
#26 Posted on
I don't think most people care about all that. I think many Americans will vote for the friendly face that got them through a very tough time. It really isn't about issues as much anymore. Everyone pretty much spouts the same stance these days. People want a likable guy in there. A guy they wouldn't mind working for themselves or a guy they wouldn't mind drinking a beer with. Rudy isn't as laughable as you might thnk. If America can forgive Clinton they will surely fogive Rudy.


I also don't see where you think a woman or minority would make the election a shoe in. It already is. Your libal to lose as many voters do to a woman or minority on the ticket. The all white male ticket is still the best way for Republicans to go.

(edited by BigDaddyLoco on 4.1.03 1556)


Downtown Bookie
Morcilla








Since: 7.4.02
From: The Inner City, Now Living In The Country

Since last post: 100 days
Last activity: 17 days
#27 Posted on

    Originally posted by MoeGates
    I do think Al Sharpton gets an underserved bad rap, and that many people use him as a bogeyman without really even listening to his ideas or what he's really trying to say.


Just speaking for myself, of course, but I heard all I needed to hear of Al Sharpton's ideas and what he was really trying to say during the Tawanna Brawley affair. By the way, has Reverend Al yet paid the civil damages he owes Steven Pagones for slandering him in the Tawanna Brawley case?

As to the question at the top of this thread, tell me what the economy will be in 2004 and I'll tell you if Bush wins or not. The smoke and mirrors trick with Iraq worked well in the mid-terms, but I don't think the Americans voters will fall for it two elections in a row. At least, that's my opinion.





Patiently waiting to be Stratusfied.
Dahak
Frankfurter








Since: 12.5.02
From: Junction City OR.

Since last post: 1992 days
Last activity: 1645 days
#28 Posted on
O.K. Big Daddy Loco how is the Democrats not a rich white man party? Why I said that the GOP or if it is close the Democrats should consider picking up a woman or minority not just to gain any of the current voters but to gain some of the people who don't vote at all.
Right now you have old people, rich people, and govt employees voting. What percentage voted in 00? Like 40%. If you could get even 10% more of the eligible Americans to vote and 2/3 vote for the party with a woman or minority that would compute into a gain of 3% or 4%. Unless it is a blowout like Reagan vs. Mondale that should basicly guarantee a victory. Plus how much of the 30% swing voters (who actually vote) would they gain? Even a 1% added to the above would translate to 5% so say 55 to 45%. Kind of an asswipping wouldn't you say?



Marge I am just trying to get into heaven not run for Jesus.
OlFuzzyBastard
Knackwurst








Since: 28.4.02
From: Pittsburgh, PA

Since last post: 7 days
Last activity: 7 days
AIM:  
#29 Posted on
The American public will believe whatever they're told.



BigDaddyLoco
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02

Since last post: 2 days
Last activity: 9 hours
#30 Posted on
You are just throwing random percentages out there that don't mean anything. I still stand by my claim that they will lose as many votes as they gain. A good deal of Americans are still uncomfortable with a minority or woman leader, even a token one.

There is still no reason for the Republicans or Democrats for that matter to stray from the status quo. Neither one of them wants to change no matter how much they claim otherwise.

(edited by BigDaddyLoco on 5.1.03 0124)


Dahak
Frankfurter








Since: 12.5.02
From: Junction City OR.

Since last post: 1992 days
Last activity: 1645 days
#31 Posted on
Well, I guess my "random percentages" mean less that your "feelings".
Maybe you are right. Actually I fear that you are right. But getting the US people to give a shit about the govt would help out the country. I don't think that the dual white male ticket will do that. You will start to end up with political dynastys controlling the House, Senate, and Presidency. When both canidates running for President got to where they are in large part because of who their daddies were then the whole political process would look like a big joke wouldn't it?
Actually to a degree the Trent Lott statement proves my point of why it should be the GOP. The GOP is perceived to be the "racist" of the two parties. I don't agree with that but I can see how people could see that. Picking a minority for Veep could to a small degree change that belief. That is why I said that if GW looks strong in 04 to dump Cheney and replace him with a woman or minority. Yes I know that women actually vote against women more often than not so it's a risk. But if it worked it could permanently damage the Democrats. If the Democrats did it first and won then the GOP would look even more like the "racist" party. Also even if they pick another white guy I ask what does Cheney gain them in 08? He will be old with a heart problem. He would be the 08 equivalant of Dole without the war record. Not a strong canidate.

(edited by Dahak on 5.1.03 1436)


Marge I am just trying to get into heaven not run for Jesus.
BigDaddyLoco
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02

Since last post: 2 days
Last activity: 9 hours
#32 Posted on
People aren't as dumb as you take them for. They'll see a token V.P. as a token V.P., making it seem as nothing more than an empty gesture.

(edited by BigDaddyLoco on 5.1.03 1818)


Dahak
Frankfurter








Since: 12.5.02
From: Junction City OR.

Since last post: 1992 days
Last activity: 1645 days
#33 Posted on
How is the VP a "token" any more than it always is? Just because I don't believe that Bush isn't going to kill 100K Iraqis to win a reelection doesn't make me a dumbass.
I have given you some numbers that IF they worked would basicly insure a victory all things being equal. I don't really think that the racist crackers would vote for the Democrats if the GOP picked a black Veep canidate. If Bush looks strong and doesn't have someone to the right of him they will still vote for him.
Maybe you should pay attention to the last 50 years but except for Quayle (who didn't run) the former VP always wins their parties canidacy. So how would the person who is at least guaranteed an even chance of being the GOP canidate in 08 be a "token"?
Of course little would be gained by more people voting would there be? As long as we have Uncle Sam telling us what to do, paying for everything, and taking all our money we are living in Xanadu aren't we? Waking up the populace to seeing how much both parties aren't doing their job would be a mistake now wouldn't it? What would all those govt. employess do then when people find out the private sector could do the same job with the same pay for 50% of the labor cost? Personally I think that rich people, seniors, and govt. employees shouldn't decide everyone in the countries future so I want everyone to vote whether they vote GOP, Democrat, or whatever. But you think that people are just too stupid to vote don't you?



Marge I am just trying to get into heaven not run for Jesus.
calvinh0560
Boudin rouge








Since: 3.1.02
From: People's Republic of Massachusetts

Since last post: 526 days
Last activity: 3 hours
#34 Posted on | Instant Rating: 0.00
You know I love the idea of Condoleezza Rice as the VP in '04. It hard to call someone who was National Security Adviser a token VP. As for people who would not vote for her is she is a woman you could can play up the fact that she wants to the commissioner of the NFL. I think alot of football fans would vote for her just for that (I know that is not saying alot about football fans :)
PalpatineW
Lap cheong








Since: 2.1.02
From: Getting Rowdy

Since last post: 2796 days
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AIM:  
#35 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.44
The former VP may win the nomination, but how often do they win the general election? Maybe Moe or Grimis have some facts handy.



Damn your eyes!
BigDaddyLoco
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02

Since last post: 2 days
Last activity: 9 hours
#36 Posted on

    But you think that people are just too stupid to vote don't you?


That's not my point at all. I did say ,"People aren't as dumb as you take them for. They'll see a token V.P. as a token V.P., making it seem as nothing more than an empty gesture."

Cheney will be the VP in '04 because Bush V 2.0 is just an extension of the old regime, just with a different figurehead. There is no need for them to do anything radical like throw a woman or minority in there for extra votes. If anything they will be content with less people going to the polls.



Dahak
Frankfurter








Since: 12.5.02
From: Junction City OR.

Since last post: 1992 days
Last activity: 1645 days
#37 Posted on
Unfortunately I agree with you. Most likely in 04 we will have another close election with dwindling voter returns. So for the 4th election in a row the winner isn't likely to even win a majority. But that doesn't mean that the GOP is the only party who gains by people not voting. Basicly the better things are the less people who vote. The less people who vote the better the incumbents do. If I remember correctly of the 33 Senators up for reelection in 04 19 are Democrats. So it will be hard for the Dems to gain much next election. As long as Bush and the GOP don't fuck up they should win. But if they fuck up they are screwed since they can't blame the Dems since they hold power.
But naive or not I want both parties to change. The GOP has started to back away a little from the Christian right. But the DNP seems stuck with the govt is all powerful and all good groups. I don't see much improving as long as people let the govt make all their decisions and I am sick and tired of 2nd and 3rd generation politicians. Of the 587 top elected officials (govs, congress members, VP, and Pres) how many got their because of their Dad held the job before them or they used to screw another politician? Bringing well, not new blood but different blood couldn't make things worse. Does anyone really want to see Jeb Bush vs. Hillary Clinton? Cheney has no future in 08 so the GOP should look to the future and not the past. Maybe you are right about Bush Jr. being a sequel but I hope you are wrong. But I guess it's just easier to bad mouth everything than to come up with an idea no matter how naive isn't it?



Marge I am just trying to get into heaven not run for Jesus.
redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 445 days
Last activity: 445 days
#38 Posted on

    Originally posted by PalpatineW
    The former VP may win the nomination, but how often do they win the general election? Maybe Moe or Grimis have some facts handy.







Not counting VP's who went into office upon the death of a President (who were then re-elected in their own right), the number is 4. John Adams (Washington-1796), Thomas Jefferson (Adams-1800, led to a change in the manner of elections), Martin Van Buren (Jackson-1836. Some day, I'll do a rant about how scary it would have been to have Andy Jackson with a nuke), and George Bush (Reagan-1988).



I once put together an 800 piece jigsaw puzzle and only had to use 500 pieces.
Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1235 days
Last activity: 1032 days
#39 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
I remember Bush winning was ah uge deal...mainly because people kept talking about Van Buren a lot.

Also, FDR did have a primary challenge in 1936 from Maryland Gov. Albert Ritchie and would have had an even more serious challenge from Huey Long had he not been killed.



Tank: So what do you need? Besides a miracle.
Neo: Guns. Lots of guns.
The Matrix
PalpatineW
Lap cheong








Since: 2.1.02
From: Getting Rowdy

Since last post: 2796 days
Last activity: 2638 days
AIM:  
#40 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.44

    Originally posted by redsoxnation

      Originally posted by PalpatineW
      The former VP may win the nomination, but how often do they win the general election? Maybe Moe or Grimis have some facts handy.







    Not counting VP's who went into office upon the death of a President (who were then re-elected in their own right), the number is 4. John Adams (Washington-1796), Thomas Jefferson (Adams-1800, led to a change in the manner of elections), Martin Van Buren (Jackson-1836. Some day, I'll do a rant about how scary it would have been to have Andy Jackson with a nuke), and George Bush (Reagan-1988).



Thank you, sir.

So, there you go. Being VP isn't, historically, that big a deal.



Damn your eyes!
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With due respect, I don't doubt for a second that a whole lot of shit that could be used for terrorist ends has been downloaded in this country. I'd hope that wouldn't count as grounds for a US invasion though.
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