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The W - Current Events & Politics - Brits and the EU (Page 2)
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-proletarian-
Chipolata








Since: 29.4.03

Since last post: 3867 days
Last activity: 3866 days
#21 Posted on
How does Grimis suddenly know how valuable the Euro is going to be long-term? Either he's some sort of super-psychic-economist, or he's talking shit. Hmmm, I wonder.....


And yes, the Roman Empire was a very successful one in it's time. They only collapsed once they forgot who they were, which is a mistake America is currently making.
Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1080 days
Last activity: 877 days
#22 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29

    Originally posted by -proletarian-
    How does Grimis suddenly know how valuable the Euro is going to be long-term? Either he's some sort of super-psychic-economist, or he's talking shit. Hmmm, I wonder....

Yes, it's called making an education prediction after thinking critically; try it sometime.



"You will never get that TV show. You'll never, ever get the Republican TV show. The Writers Guild of America, my union, is at a minimum, 99 percent leftist liberal and, like me, socialist. And we don't know how to write it. We don't."
- Lawrence O'Donnell, former Capitol Hill aide; co-producer/executive story editor/writer for "The West Wing"; and, creator/Executive Producer of "Mister Sterling" on why Republicans and conservatives are "practically invisible" on TV during CNN's "Relibable Sources", 3/25.
-proletarian-
Chipolata








Since: 29.4.03

Since last post: 3867 days
Last activity: 3866 days
#23 Posted on

    Originally posted by Grimis

      Originally posted by -proletarian-
      How does Grimis suddenly know how valuable the Euro is going to be long-term? Either he's some sort of super-psychic-economist, or he's talking shit. Hmmm, I wonder....

    Yes, it's called making an education prediction after thinking critically; try it sometime.




I think you meant to say "educated" prediction.


And the fact that economists can't even say definitively what the value of a given currency will be vis-a-vis another currency long-term doesn't bode well for your prediction.

What parameters did you consider when making your statement?
Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1080 days
Last activity: 877 days
#24 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29

    Originally posted by -proletarian-
    I think you meant to say "educated" prediction.

Bah!

    Originally posted by -proletarian-
    And the fact that economists can't even say definitively what the value of a given currency will be vis-a-vis another currency long-term doesn't bode well for your prediction.

    What parameters did you consider when making your statement?


I am considering the strength of the relative economies pre Euro conversion, as well as the current economic climate both pre and post 9/11 as factors. Also, the current lack of a concrete industrialized base in eastern European countries that are using the Euro.



"You will never get that TV show. You'll never, ever get the Republican TV show. The Writers Guild of America, my union, is at a minimum, 99 percent leftist liberal and, like me, socialist. And we don't know how to write it. We don't."
- Lawrence O'Donnell, former Capitol Hill aide; co-producer/executive story editor/writer for "The West Wing"; and, creator/Executive Producer of "Mister Sterling" on why Republicans and conservatives are "practically invisible" on TV during CNN's "Relibable Sources", 3/25.
-proletarian-
Chipolata








Since: 29.4.03

Since last post: 3867 days
Last activity: 3866 days
#25 Posted on
"I am considering the strength of the relative economies pre Euro conversion, as well as the current economic climate both pre and post 9/11 as factors. Also, the current lack of a concrete industrialized base in eastern European countries that are using the Euro."


American Q1 growth came in at 1.9%. The Eurozone as a whole is growing at about 1.2% last time I checked. However, we all know that the value of a currency is determined by the demand for said currency on the international currency market. The primary reason for the euro's strength against the dollar is the fact that U.S. treasury secratary John Snow has made some coy comments recently suggesting that a weak dollar was a new tactic being pursued by the Bush administration as a way to get the economy moving again. The euro is seen as a safe haven, and the fact that interest rates in Europe (3.25%, I think) give a much higher return than American rates that are set at 1.25% doesn't hurt either.

Doesn't 9/11 hurt the dollar more than it would the euro? I don't see how you use that as a reason as to why the euro should depreciate against the greenback.

To my knowledge, no Eastern European countries currently use the euro. The only euro countries today are 12 of the 15 existing EU nations, minus the UK, Sweden and Denmark. Kosovo uses the euro, but only because they are administered by a European peacekeeping force and their economy is in a shambles. And to be honest, the problem isn't a LACK of an industrial base in Eastern Europe; if anything, their problem is their economies are TOO heavily industrialized, and are without the high level of service industries that are a trademark of an advanced economy, but your point is taken. However, seeing as those countries don't currently use the euro, their economic weakness doesn't tarnish the currency's value.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Is it just me or have we gotten waaaaaaay off topic in this thread?

-lol-
Mr. Boffo
Scrapple








Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 262 days
Last activity: 223 days
#26 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.44
Saw the Roman Empire mentioned, and while this getting far afield from the topic, I felt I should mention it anyway.
From "An Incomplete Education" by Judy Jones and William Wilson, available at amazon.com, when speaking about Edward Gibbon, who wrote "The Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire":

Gibbon believed that there existed a special connection between Rome at its height and his own England (which had, after all, just passed through its Augustan Age and which was about to enter its imperial heyady), and that everyone would surely like to see that connection analyzed, complete with it-can-happen-here overtones. Of course, it now seems clear--as far as ancient-modern analogies go--that the role Britian really played was Greece, leaving to America the somewhat thankless and totally grandiose role of Rome. Which is precisely why The Portable Gibbon deserves a place on the old bookshelf right next to Animal Farm and 1984.

Um, I don't know what that makes the EU exactly ...



NOTE: The above post makes no sense. We apologize for the inconvenience.
dMr
Andouille








Since: 2.11.02
From: Edinburgh, Scotland

Since last post: 9 days
Last activity: 13 hours
#27 Posted on

    Originally posted by Grimis
    I am considering the strength of the relative economies pre Euro conversion


Do you mean their strengths relative to each other or to the US? If its to each other then fair enough, but performance in comparison to non EU areas isn't a critical factor in determining the success of the Euro in the medium to long term particularly.

As far as the UK is concerned, we are considering our economy relative to our neighbours, thats what the 5 tests are for.

Actually in reality the 5 tests are really entirely subjective criteria designed to make sure New Labour can do whatever they want, whenever they want with regards a referendum (ie hold one only once they think they can win) but thats another matter.


as well as the current economic climate both pre and post 9/11 as factors.


Do you mean the patterns witnessed in the world economy as a whole or how they've changed post 9/11. What I would say is that a more coherent military policy would be needed to prevent drastic polar shifts in the economies of 2 euro participants due to their differing actions in any future wars we embark on.

Also, the current lack of a concrete industrialized base in eastern European countries that are using the Euro.


Countries currently using the euro: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain.

Wouldn't really consider them Eastern European. Other factors you should consider are the potential for increased competition among both retailers and suppliers due to price transparency, the removal of exchange rate risk stimulating trade and facilitating less risky transactions in the world of futures and options (though rather complex measures to offset exchange rate risk do currently exist, most of which I'll have to know by Saturday, bugger).

But like proletarian said, better educated folks than us have discussed this point and been failed to reach agreement, so I doubt either of us is gonna radically alter our views.




Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1080 days
Last activity: 877 days
#28 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
OK....mea clpa on the Eastern Euro countries using the Euro.....

However, those countries when they are formally brought into the EU(and I'm looking at YOU Greece, Turkey and Cyprus) are going to bring the currecny down some.

Incidentally, Bloomberg is reporting that France's jobless rate is appraoching 10% and the economies in Germany, Italy, and the Nethelands contracted in the first quarter. Also, the Financial Times reports that France's deficit is twice the limit allowed by the EU.

EDIT: Incidentally, think that Blair might think differently now that he will be accused of war crimes before the ICC? Or that because of the EU superstate, EU police could potentially arrest him to face trial before the aforementioned court?

(edited by Grimis on 2.6.03 1100)


"You will never get that TV show. You'll never, ever get the Republican TV show. The Writers Guild of America, my union, is at a minimum, 99 percent leftist liberal and, like me, socialist. And we don't know how to write it. We don't."
- Lawrence O'Donnell, former Capitol Hill aide; co-producer/executive story editor/writer for "The West Wing"; and, creator/Executive Producer of "Mister Sterling" on why Republicans and conservatives are "practically invisible" on TV during CNN's "Relibable Sources", 3/25.
-proletarian-
Chipolata








Since: 29.4.03

Since last post: 3867 days
Last activity: 3866 days
#29 Posted on
Arresting Blair for war crimes? Talk about priorities.....Lukashenko has a nice little dictatorship right on Europe's doorstep, Ukraine's leader (name escapes me) rigs elections every 7 (yes, 7!) years, and they want to arrest TONY BLAIR? Geez......


I doubt it'll happen. Most of these rumours seem to be started due to something that a bitter, low-level bureaucrat says, and don't necessarily reflect official policy.
dMr
Andouille








Since: 2.11.02
From: Edinburgh, Scotland

Since last post: 9 days
Last activity: 13 hours
#30 Posted on

    Originally posted by Grimis
    those countries when they are formally brought into the EU(and I'm looking at YOU Greece, Turkey and Cyprus) are going to bring the currecny down some.


While the likes of France and Germany might have the clout to get away with bending the restricions for euro introduction you can pretty much guarntee these guys wont get in unless evrythings in working order for that very reason.


Incidentally, Bloomberg is reporting that France's jobless rate is appraoching 10% and the economies in Germany, Italy, and the Nethelands contracted in the first quarter. Also, the Financial Times reports that France's deficit is twice the limit allowed by the EU.


Yup, its the makings of a recession. You get them sometimes regardless of what currency you use.


Incidentally, think that Blair might think differently now that he will be accused of war crimes before the ICC? Or that because of the EU superstate, EU police could potentially arrest him to face trial before the aforementioned court?


Right now I'm thinking that Germany and France could call a press conference where Jacques accused the British of being war-mongering, ignorant, uncultured yobs, while Gerhard circulated photos of Blair in a gimp suit performing oral sex on an infected llama and Tony would still be all for Europe.





Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1080 days
Last activity: 877 days
#31 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
    Originally posted by dMr

      Originally posted by Grimis
      those countries when they are formally brought into the EU(and I'm looking at YOU Greece, Turkey and Cyprus) are going to bring the currecny down some.


    While the likes of France and Germany might have the clout to get away with bending the restricions for euro introduction you can pretty much guarntee these guys wont get in unless evrythings in working order for that very reason


Actually, Greece is already in, Cyprus will be in May 2004(along with the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia), and Turkey is looking like December 2004. Bulgaria and Romania hop on in 2007.

(edited by Grimis on 2.6.03 1528)


"You will never get that TV show. You'll never, ever get the Republican TV show. The Writers Guild of America, my union, is at a minimum, 99 percent leftist liberal and, like me, socialist. And we don't know how to write it. We don't."
- Lawrence O'Donnell, former Capitol Hill aide; co-producer/executive story editor/writer for "The West Wing"; and, creator/Executive Producer of "Mister Sterling" on why Republicans and conservatives are "practically invisible" on TV during CNN's "Relibable Sources", 3/25.
-proletarian-
Chipolata








Since: 29.4.03

Since last post: 3867 days
Last activity: 3866 days
#32 Posted on
Actually the current timetable set out by the Turkish PM is for a realistic goal of Turkey joining the EU in 2012. He made that announcement just a few days ago, in fact.

About Cyprus, the Greek part is set to join in 2004, with or without the Turkish portion of the island. Of course, it'd be better for all concerned if they could bury the hatchet before then, but don't count on it.
dMr
Andouille








Since: 2.11.02
From: Edinburgh, Scotland

Since last post: 9 days
Last activity: 13 hours
#33 Posted on

    Originally posted by Grimis
      Originally posted by dMr

        Originally posted by Grimis
        those countries when they are formally brought into the EU(and I'm looking at YOU Greece, Turkey and Cyprus) are going to bring the currecny down some.


      While the likes of France and Germany might have the clout to get away with bending the restricions for euro introduction you can pretty much guarntee these guys wont get in unless evrythings in working order for that very reason


    Actually, Greece is already in, Cyprus will be in May 2004(along with the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia), and Turkey is looking like December 2004. Bulgaria and Romania hop on in 2007.

    (edited by Grimis on 2.6.03 1528)



Uh, huh. Have you seen the rate of improvement thats been occuring in central European countries like Poland? Its currently one of the hot areas for large firms (particularly major retailers) to move into an GDP's been rocketing since about 1997.

Seriously, the vast majority of those countries you mentioned would be of benefit to the euro by the time next year rocks around, although I would question the readiness of Romania by 2007. We shall see.



Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1080 days
Last activity: 877 days
#34 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
More follow-up to this story: A former director of Germany's Bundesbank says the UK would be crazy to go to the Euro because of all the damage it has done to the German economy. Here's a telling quote.

"But the whole system could eventually collapse, given the problems when one central bank has to steer an entire continent of nation states. Certainly, the more countries that join, the more ungovernable it will become," Nolling says. "In that sense, the euro was born to die."

(edited by Grimis on 9.6.03 1500)


"Certainly one of the chief guarantees of freedom under any government, no matter how popular and respected, is the right of citizens to keep and bear arms. This is not to say that firearms should not be very carefully used and that definite safety rules of precaution should not be taught and enforced. But the right of citizens to bear arms is just one more guarantee against arbitrary government, one more safeguard against a tyranny which now appears remote in America, but which historically has proved to be always possible."
- Sen. Hubert H. Humphrey, 1960
messenoir
Summer sausage








Since: 20.2.02
From: Columbia, MO

Since last post: 356 days
Last activity: 223 days
AIM:  
#35 Posted on
I can certainly see where one central bank would have problems governing a large continent made up of many seperate areas all with their own government. It's too bad it's never been tried before, so we can't know for sure.
-proletarian-
Chipolata








Since: 29.4.03

Since last post: 3867 days
Last activity: 3866 days
#36 Posted on
What is the difference between one central bank setting interest rates for 12 states, while another sets the rates for 50 states? That whole argument is a smokescreen, you can never avoid the problem of a central bank being unresponsive to the needs of a certain region.

For instance, in Britain over the past few years, the South has boomed while the North has been in recession, yet you never hear about Northern England being repressed by a tyrranical British Central Bank. The Bank of England raised rates in recent years to avoid a bubble in the South while the North stagnated. Even within countries you get these situations, so what would be the difference between that and a transnational European Central Bank? There's always going to be regions that need higher rates and regions that need lower rates, no matter what framework they operate under.
Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1080 days
Last activity: 877 days
#37 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
More reading on the EU Superstate:

The Euro Menace by Andrew Sullivan from the 6/14 New Republic.





"Certainly one of the chief guarantees of freedom under any government, no matter how popular and respected, is the right of citizens to keep and bear arms. This is not to say that firearms should not be very carefully used and that definite safety rules of precaution should not be taught and enforced. But the right of citizens to bear arms is just one more guarantee against arbitrary government, one more safeguard against a tyranny which now appears remote in America, but which historically has proved to be always possible."
- Sen. Hubert H. Humphrey, 1960
-proletarian-
Chipolata








Since: 29.4.03

Since last post: 3867 days
Last activity: 3866 days
#38 Posted on
Yet more whining conspiracy theories from over-caffinated columnists.

I couldn't believe he actually had the audacity to rail against the CAP (which is a shitty policy, yes) while Bush signed the farm bill not long ago.

It's painfully easy to read between the lines of columns like those; "This could undermine American hegemony and therefore must be stopped". That's the cut and thrust of it, everything else is just layered propoganda intended to bring the read around to the original point. (see above)
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