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The W - Baseball - Blyleven & Alomar into 2011 Hall Of Fame. (Page 2)
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Joseph Ryder
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Since: 19.3.02
From: Seattle, WA

Since last post: 1106 days
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#21 Posted on
    Originally posted by supersalvadoran
    Except he doesn't compare with Williams at all. In fact, according to his Baseball-reference page (baseball-reference.com), he doesn't compare to any hofer in the 'similar scores' category.

    Edgar Martinez was a good player, a really good player. But not a Hall of Famer. If you think he deserves to get in, then you must allow guys like Bagwell, Gonzalez, Palmeiro, Murphy, and even Albert freaking Belle in before him. Hell, he's barely even in my top 3 players named Martinez who deserve to get in (#1 is Pedro, #2 is Dennis, and Edgar just beats out Ramon).

How do you define hitting greatness? I think my fav stat at the moment is wRC+ (sort of a better version of OPS+, it's also Park and Era-adjusted). Here are the names you listed...and some other recent inductees and nominees I threw in for fun.

Name     wRC+
Bagwell 152 (36th all-time)
ARod 152 (39th all-time)
Martinez 151 (41st all-time)
R.Henderson 145
Walker 145
Belle 144
W. Clark 138
Raines 137
T. Gwynn 134
Palmeiro 133
Gonzalez 132
R. Alomar 125
B. Larkin 124
Murphy 121


Deduct what you will for the whole DH thing, but Martinez could hit. So could Bagwell.

(edited by Joseph Ryder on 6.1.11 1719)

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graves9
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Since: 19.2.10
From: Brooklyn NY

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#22 Posted on
    Originally posted by StaggerLee
      Originally posted by El Nastio
      It's about time Bert "Be Home" Blyleven made it. And with 4% to spare! Alomar should've been voted in last year though.

      Hopefully people will take up the zeal they had for Blyleven and throw their efforts behind Tim Raines and Egdar Martinez.


    You spelled Jack Morris wrong. Twice in fact.
Jack Morris is not deserving of making the Hall. If not for the incredible 1991 World Series performance nobody would be mentioning him as a being worthy of being a Hall of famer. Raines, Larkin, Martinez all very deserving , imo.
El Nastio
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Since: 14.1.02
From: Ottawa Ontario, by way of Walkerton

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#23 Posted on
    Originally posted by supersalvadoran
      Originally posted by El Nastio
      I'll be fine with Bagwell getting in but Martinez was a modern day Ted Williams in the sense that he was a hitting MACHINE.




    Except he doesn't compare with Williams at all. In fact, according to his Baseball-reference page (baseball-reference.com), he doesn't compare to any hofer in the 'similar scores' category.

    Edgar Martinez was a good player, a really good player. But not a Hall of Famer. If you think he deserves to get in, then you must allow guys like Bagwell, Gonzalez, Palmeiro, Murphy, and even Albert freaking Belle in before him. Hell, he's barely even in my top 3 players named Martinez who deserve to get in (#1 is Pedro, #2 is Dennis, and Edgar just beats out Ramon).


People like Joe Po are great because they compile numbers for easy reference. Here's some for you;

Only sixteen men have had (min. 5000 plate appearances);

- On base percentage higher than .400
- Slugging percentage higher .500

Martinez and Bagwell are in that group.

Now, if you remove those who hit LESS than .300 Martinez is one of 13 (Bagwell is not included). If you factor in Martinez his 300 homers and 500 doubles do you know who is left in that list? Take a wild guess before you look;

Ruth. Gehrig. Hornsby. Williams. Musial. Bonds. And Martinez.

You see those names? Those are names who know on a Last Name Basis, where we only hear the name and we know who it is. That's greatness. All-time type names. Martinez is among them in fine style. Don't let him being along-time DH fool you. Don't let him not being flashy fool you. Don't let him being a Seattle Mariner fool you.

He deserves to get in. So does Raines.

(edited by El Nastio on 6.1.11 2309)


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Toolpox
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Since: 13.6.08
From: Kohler, WI

Since last post: 1292 days
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#24 Posted on
Ruth .342/.474/.690
Gehrig .340/.447/.632
Hornsby .358/.434/.577
Williams .344/.482/.634
Musial .331/.417/.559
Bonds .298/.444/.607

And Martinez .312/.418/.515

You can take the lowest stat from any of the others (.298/.417/.559), and Martinez's line is as close to John Olerud (.295 .398 .465) as he is the worst-case scenario of the one-name basis group.

I'd say more, but then I'd owe Bill James royalties for the "We can make a group" fallacy. The point (his point) is that you can make a set of qualifications like that for literally anyone who is in a HOF discussion. Well, except for Jack Morris.


(edited by Toolpox on 6.1.11 2232)
supersalvadoran
Landjager








Since: 10.1.08
From: westbury, new york

Since last post: 8 days
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#25 Posted on
    Originally posted by Toolpox

    I'd say more, but then I'd owe Bill James royalties for the "We can make a group" fallacy. The point (his point) is that you can make a set of qualifications like that for literally anyone who is in a HOF discussion. Well, except for Jack Morris.


    (edited by Toolpox on 6.1.11 2232)


I understand what you're saying about people, including me, using certain numbers 'qualify' anyone for the HOF. But that's the thing: a big part of getting into the HOF is numbers. Important stats that determine their entry (at least 'power hitters')IMO include career stats in run-producing such as runs, home runs, and RBIs and I personally don't believe Martinez has them, at least not the ones that usually allow entry. Yes, he had a great batting avg., but when people say he's a modern-day Ted Williams, I find that ridiculous. For him to have numbers comparable to Williams, he would had needed (over a regular 162 game season) to increase his average by over 30 points, home runs by 13, and RBI by 31. Or if he were to have the same amount of batting appearances as Williams, he would need in just over 1100 appearances (not even at-bats, mind you) to have 212 more home runs, 578 more RBI, and 579 more runs. Simply put, he's not at William's level. Maybe I'm being too cranky about it, but when you go and compare Martinez to one of all-time great baseball players, you better make sure he has all-time great stats, which he really doesn't. If Jim Rice had so much difficulty getting in, why do you believe Martinez (who in two *more* seasons had 72 less home runs, 190 less RBI, and one less MVP in a era that was considered easier to batters) deserves it more than most anyone else?

One more thing: not once in either of my posts did I ever mention Martinez being a DH. That's a fall-back excuse used by his defenders IMO ("You just don't want him in the HOF because he was mostly a DH."). I don't have a problem with DH's being in the Hall. Like El Nastio said earlier, Molitor got in with a ton of his at-bats as a DH. I could see other DHs getting in the future, but not Martinez. He does not have the overall stats that most voters really look into. in fact, I think the DH kind of helps him: if he was just your average outfielder or even in some infield positions, his stats wouldn't compare as well as other HOFers in most of those positions. If say he was a first baseman, how would he be allowed in, but not say Fred McGriff?

Then again don't really take my word for it. I'm just venting in part because everybody's seem to be rushing to Edgar's defense while no one is crying at the outrage of John Franco being eliminated from the ballot. Maybe it's the Met homer in me, but while I never thought he would actually be elected in, I thought Franco would last more than just one year in the ballot. What BS.

(edited by supersalvadoran on 7.1.11 0447)











Mr. Boffo
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Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 359 days
Last activity: 320 days
#26 Posted on
Can we agree that the 5 guys who turned in an empty ballot should just be removed from the BBWAA? I'm sure everyone on here thinks at least one guy from the group of Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Morris, Smith, Bagwell, Raines, or Martinez are Hall of Famers. If you don't think any of these guys are, then I think we have the right to ignore your opinion.

As for future years:
The only one who failed this ballot who will definitely get in is Barry Larkin. He should definitely make it in next year.

Morris, Smith, and Bagwell are each questionable.
* Morris has only 3 years left, and I'm not sure if he's reached the critical mass that is going make people change their minds on him.
* Smith has 6 years left, and likewise he needs to go up 30% if he's going to make it. Voting could follow the Blyleven path where he steadily increases, or it could follow the Ron Santo path where he never makes it close.
* After one year, it's too soon to make decisions on Bagwell. There is precedent for getting 40% of the vote in your first year and not making it in (Steve Garvey). I'm not saying Bagwell is like Garvey, just saying that it's hard to know how people are going to feel on this guy in 15 years.
Toolpox
Weisswurst








Since: 13.6.08
From: Kohler, WI

Since last post: 1292 days
Last activity: 1237 days
#27 Posted on
I don't have a dog in the HOF fight, I just think illegitimate arguments should be called out. Anybody with a good career can have their numbers pared down until it is just them and the usual suspects (Mays, Williams, et al). The problem is that Edgar Martinez is closer to Moises Alou than he is Ted Williams. Sure, Alou doesn't make the .400/.500 group, but Martinez barely makes it on both counts. I don't think it would be a travesty if Edgar Martinez made it, but I certainly don't think he ought to make it before his contemporaries that are being stiffed on the PED issue.

The DH thing isn't a disqualifier, and shouldn't be, but it should certainly affect the context in which we view his numbers. The reality is that Ozzie Smith or Brooks Robinson would not have sniffed the HOF if they played 1B. And that's how it should be. If Edgar Martinez put up his numbers as a catcher, he'd be a no-brainer, but since his only contribution was as a hitter, I think his batting numbers should be a little more eye-popping than they are before we start insisting he make it in.

The arguments for Jack Morris are a stroll through the bullshit dump. He was a workhorse (6 times top 3 IP, led the league once), but not significantly moreso than his peers, but people talk about his grit. People have used retrosheet to debunk all the nonsense spouted about how his ERA was never good because he'd coast with a lead or soak up innings on a bad day, yet it gets tossed out every year. The case for him is that he was a good pitcher for good teams, and he had a memorable game on the biggest possible stage. It wouldn't be a crime if he made it, but the line for pitchers had started with Blyleven, and there are still more who should make it before we talk about Morris.
cfgb
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Since: 2.1.02
From: Ottawa, Ontario

Since last post: 42 days
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#28 Posted on
    Originally posted by Mr. Boffo
    * Morris has only 3 years left, and I'm not sure if he's reached the critical mass that is going make people change their minds on him.



I can't see it happening. Unless he gets a massive surge during next year when the only person who's going to get any consideration (but come far short) is Bernie Williams, it's game over. He will be forgotten about with the 2013/14 debates when the following floodgates open:

2013: Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, Sosa, Schilling, Biggio, Lofton, Wells

2014: Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Kent, Mussina, Alou

(Note: I'm not saying all of these guys are HOFers, just the ones who will merit some sort of debate.)

Morris probably only rates ahead of David Wells, Moises Alou, possibly Kenny Lofton, and that's it. He's cooked.



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El Nastio
Andouille








Since: 14.1.02
From: Ottawa Ontario, by way of Walkerton

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#29 Posted on
    Originally posted by cfgb
      Originally posted by Mr. Boffo
      * Morris has only 3 years left, and I'm not sure if he's reached the critical mass that is going make people change their minds on him.



    I can't see it happening. Unless he gets a massive surge during next year when the only person who's going to get any consideration (but come far short) is Bernie Williams, it's game over. He will be forgotten about with the 2013/14 debates when the following floodgates open:

    2013: Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, Sosa, Schilling, Biggio, Lofton, Wells

    2014: Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Kent, Mussina, Alou

    (Note: I'm not saying all of these guys are HOFers, just the ones who will merit some sort of debate.)

    Morris probably only rates ahead of David Wells, Moises Alou, possibly Kenny Lofton, and that's it. He's cooked.


If the Steroid Backlash is still going on, 2013 will only bring Schilling. I could see Bonds eventually getting in, maybe even first ballot if things die down enough. I could see a couple of perennial contenders sneak into the Hall then.

2014 on the other hand, we have three no doubt for sure 110% people are gigadumb if they don't vote for them candidates. There is no doubt that Maddux will make it in. Where there is doubt is whether or not he'll be unanimous (or simply break the record for first ballot votes). Glavine will make it in as well. Thomas has the numbers and the presence to make it in. Plus he volunteered to come forward with Mitchell. Really, all three stand to actually benefit from the Steroid Backlash.



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Peter The Hegemon
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Since: 11.2.03
From: Hackettstown, NJ

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#30 Posted on
    Originally posted by Mr. Boffo
    Can we agree that the 5 guys who turned in an empty ballot should just be removed from the BBWAA? I'm sure everyone on here thinks at least one guy from the group of Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Morris, Smith, Bagwell, Raines, or Martinez are Hall of Famers. If you don't think any of these guys are, then I think we have the right to ignore your opinion.


Well, the only guy who I think is an absolute lock is Alomar. And obviously the 5 guys who didn't vote for anyone weren't the only ones who failed to vote for him. I would have much more respect for someone who voted for no one than for someone who voted for ten guys and left Alomar off, or who didn't vote for Alomar but did vote for someone like Santiago or Olerud.

It's going to be really interesting to see how far the Steroid Backlash goes. (Not sure why we're capitalizing it, but I'll go with the flow. B^) Bagwell probably has the numbers to get in, but he's not coming close, despite the fact that there is NO actual evidence of him doing steroids. That surprises me. If he can't get in, could Piazza suffer the same fate? He's an absolute no-brainer on the numbers, but like Bagwell there are suspicions about him even though he was never caught doing anything. And if they're leaving out guys like that, how can they put Bonds and Clemens in? I mean, if it were up to me, I would put both of them in because both established themselves as Hall-worthy before they ever took a steroid, whereas I have no problem leaving out guys like McGwire, Palmiero, and Sosa where I think there's real doubt about how great they would have been if they were clean.

And what happens if someone already in turns out to have taken steroids? Do they try to remove him? Does it change the voting after that?

I do think Biggio gets in along with Schilling if the first four names on the 2013 list all get the PED blacklist treatment.
Joseph Ryder
Head cheese








Since: 19.3.02
From: Seattle, WA

Since last post: 1106 days
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#31 Posted on
    Originally posted by supersalvadoran
    If Jim Rice had so much difficulty getting in, why do you believe Martinez (who in two *more* seasons had 72 less home runs, 190 less RBI, and one less MVP in a era that was considered easier to batters) deserves it more than most anyone else?

Because there's a hell of a lot more to batting than HRs, RBIs, and MVPs.
Name      OBP wOBA wRC+ WAR*   SO   BB IBB** Outs*** NeutOPS****
Martinez .418 .405 151 71.6 1202 1283 113 5273 .940
Rice .352 .375 132 56.1 1423 670 77 6221 .832
*This is Fangraph's WAR. On Baseball-Reference the gap widens to 67.2-41.5.
**Just cause Rice's big claim to fame was how "feared" he was.
***In two *more* seasons! Not making outs is the batter's main objective.
****since you brought up Rice's "easier" era, via BR, their OPS after converting all their seasons to the same neutral park, 716-run environment.
    Originally posted by supersalvadoran
    I think the DH kind of helps him: if he was just your average outfielder or even in some infield positions, his stats wouldn't compare as well as other HOFers in most of those positions. If say he was a first baseman, how would he be allowed in, but not say Fred McGriff?

Because Martinez was better. 71.6 WAR to 61.3 (fangraphs), or 67.2 to 50.5 (BR).

(edited by CRZ on 7.1.11 1327)


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Big Bad
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Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

Since last post: 2 days
Last activity: 6 hours
#32 Posted on
    Originally posted by Peter The Hegemon
    It's going to be really interesting to see how far the Steroid Backlash goes. (Not sure why we're capitalizing it, but I'll go with the flow. B^) Bagwell probably has the numbers to get in, but he's not coming close, despite the fact that there is NO actual evidence of him doing steroids. That surprises me. If he can't get in, could Piazza suffer the same fate? He's an absolute no-brainer on the numbers, but like Bagwell there are suspicions about him even though he was never caught doing anything. And if they're leaving out guys like that, how can they put Bonds and Clemens in? I mean, if it were up to me, I would put both of them in because both established themselves as Hall-worthy before they ever took a steroid, whereas I have no problem leaving out guys like McGwire, Palmiero, and Sosa where I think there's real doubt about how great they would have been if they were clean.

    And what happens if someone already in turns out to have taken steroids? Do they try to remove him? Does it change the voting after that?

    I do think Biggio gets in along with Schilling if the first four names on the 2013 list all get the PED blacklist treatment.


1. Piazza probably gets voted in just because as a catcher, his numbers stand out more than Bagwell's do among his peers at first base. Plus, Piazza has the edge over Bags since Piazza played for big markets in Los Angeles and New York.

2. If they haven't taken out Ty Cobb, Cap Anson, etc. for being racists and assholes, then they can't take out someone for steroids. Hell, Gaylord Perry was inducted and his claim to fame was an illegal pitch.

3. Biggio has a much stronger case than most suspect, given that he reached the magical 3000-hit plateau. He and Piazza get in in 2013 along with maybe Schilling; the high-profile roiders like Clemens and Bonds might be made to wait a year as 'punishment,' if at all.
odessasteps
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Since: 2.1.02
From: MD, USA

Since last post: 35 days
Last activity: 2 days
#33 Posted on

I think it was Bill James who has had that he believes there is already one Steroid User that has been elected.

The usual theories are that he is talking about Rickey or maybe Nolan Ryan.

Personally, I think every era has a knock against it (integration, dead ball, greenies, steroids) so it should all wash out in the end.





Mark Coale
Odessa Steps Magazine
ISSUE FOUR - OCTOBER 2009
odessasteps
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: MD, USA

Since last post: 35 days
Last activity: 2 days
#34 Posted on
http://www.news-press.com/article/20110113/SPORTS/101130390/1075/Blyleven-has-show-of-support#

stat guy who spearheaded hof campaign meets blyleven



Mark Coale
Odessa Steps Magazine
ISSUE FOUR - OCTOBER 2009
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You can count out Sheffield, as the Yanks picked up his option. And he's not exactly happy they did. Bonds I don't think the Sox would want, nor do I think Barry would come here anyway. Zito though, I'd take a chance on.
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