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27.11.14 1239
The W - Football - BCS Bowl Projections for Week 14
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Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 7 days
Last activity: 2 days
#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
The Sugar Bowl's tie-in, the SEC is an At-large as it hosts the championship game.
The Orange Bowl can take the ACC or Big East champion, it is not required to take both.
The Fiesta Bowl gets to pick first, they lost the tie-in to the #1 BCS team, the Pac-10 picks second.

Conference Champs (If the season ended today, I actually found the tiebreaking procedures, so I will apply them)
***(FSU, Michigan, and USC, are the only teams to win their conference so far this season, The Big XII & SEC have title games we have to wait for. Teams with *** have won their Conference and/or division)

ACC: ***FSU
Big XII: Oklahoma (over K State)
~~~~~North: ***K State
~~~~~South: ***Oklahoma
Big East: Miami (Tiebreaker #1, Head-to-head. They haven't played Pitt yet, but they did beat WV, which did beat Pitt)
Big Ten: ***Michigan
Pac-10: *** USC (1 conf game left, and is tied with WA state with 6 wins, USC has the head to head)
SEC: LSU (Only because of their one-loss season)
~~~~~East: Georgia ((in)famous Tiebreaker #7, Georgia is BCS #7, Tennessee #8, Florida #11. Tennessee is within 5 spots of Georgia, so it goes to head to head, Georgia wins)
~~~~~West: ***LSU. Tie Breaker #1, head to head with Mississippi.

BCS TOP 10 RANKINGS CONF. BREAKDOWN
#1 Oklahoma (Big XII Leader)
#2 USC (Pac-10 Champ)
#3 LSU (SEC Leader)
#4 Michigan (Big Ten Leader)
#5 Ohio State (Big Ten, At-large)
#6 Texas (Big XII, At-Large)
#7 Georgia (SEC, Bowl Elegible, BCS Bowl Eligible, 9-2)
#8 Tennessee (SEC, Bowl Elegible, BCS Bowl Eligible, 9-2)
#9 Florida State (ACC Champion)
#10 Miami, FL (Big East Leader)
#11 Florida (SEC, Bowl Eligible, 7-3, with one I-AA win, BCS Ineligible)
#12 Iowa (Big Ten, 9-3, BCS Bowl Eligible)

At-large teams:
Ohio State (Big Ten), Highest ranked non-champion, ranked #5
Texas (Big XII), next highest ranked non-champion , ranked #6

On the Bubble:
-- Georgia, They have a good chance of overtaking OSU in the standings. They have almost equal poll points (12.5 to Georgias 12.75), OSUs SOS is .24 to GAs 1.28, and GA gets a .3 subtraction because they beat #8 Tennessee. If OSUs SOS can go up while they're IDLE and GA can lower theirs, and get some help from the polls, they can do it.
-- Tennessee, They need Texas or Georgia to lose, and drop low enough for them to move into #6 or #7 in the standings
-- Florida, They need to beat FSU AND then use the I-AA execption), and then need Texas to lose to Texas A&M, Ohio State to move down the rankings for some reason, Georgia to lose to GA Tech, Tennesee lost to Kentucky, and Miami, OH to lost to Central Florida, just for good measure. Odds? 10,000 to 1 against.
-- Miami, OH. No chance in Hell.


A Team is Bowl Eligible if they go 6-6 (12 game sch.) or 6-5 (11 game sch.)

Why Should we care who is BCS Bowl Eligible? If BCS Numbers 1 through 6 are all the BCS conf champions, then we have to choose based on the following
1) The team has 9 I-A wins (once every 4 years a team can claim a win over a I-AA team, but so far, no team has done that yet)
2) The team is in the BCS top 12.


Note: Below are 4 at-large selections, 1 for the SEC champ, 1 for the ACC/Big East champ (remember, the Orange bowl doesn't have to take both) and the other 2 are Texas and OSU.

Sugar Bowl (BCS #1 vs BCS #2): Oklahoma (Big XII) vs USC (Pac-10)
Orange Bowl (ACC/Big East vs. At-large): Miami (Big East Leaders (see ya, losers!)) vs LSU (SEC Leader, At-large)
Rose Bowl (Big Ten vs At-large): Michigan (Big Ten Champ) vs FSU (ACC Champ)
Fiesta Bowl (At-large vs At-large): Ohio State (Big Ten, At-large) vs Texas (Big XII, At-large)

Fiesta loses Oklahoma to the Sugar, so I have them taking Texas.
Rose lost USC, so I have them taking FSU.

SPECULATION:
Miami, FL vs Pitt. Winner will be tied with WV for Big East Leader (If WV can beat Temple *snicker*)

--If Miami, FL is tied with WV, then Tiebreaker #1, Head to head, and Miami, FL is higher ranked then WV (10 vs 30 using current BCS Standings)

--If Pitt is tied with WV, then Tiebreaker #2, Head to head, plus BCS position, like SEC TB#7. Using current BCS Standings, #30 WV beat #26 Pitt. Now, If Pitt beats Miami, FL, then they will move up a few spots, right??? Looks like WVs best chance is for Pitt to win, and then have one or more of the following lose (Southern Miss to East Carolina, Maryland to Wake Forest, VT to Virginia, Nebraska to Colorado, and/or Arkansas to LSU)

--And even IF WV somehow gets the Big East BCS Bid, a #25 to #30 something WV might invoke the "Big East Rule" where they may revoke the selection. Schools like Georgia, Tennessee, Florida and Miami, OH (Only 1 loss!!!) would be yelling that one of them should get the bid over a 8-4 WV ranked #25 in the BCS (They would be unranked in last years 1-15 BCS Standings!!!, and could be this years 1-25 standings)

--Techinally the BCS goes to 25, but if you plug in the numbers you can get the unoffical BCS standing for any school, so if Pitt and WV stay under 25 in the official BCS Standings, then Tiebreaker #5 is used "If the two teams have the same ranking, or both are unranked, the bid goes to the team that has won the head-to-head contest." Advantage WV, so they will be rooting for Pitt. If Pitt even makes it to #25 in the OFFICIAL standings, they a 25 will beat a no ranking for WV....something to remember

USC has a game with Oregon State. If USC wins, they keep the BCS #2. Even if they lose, they'll still win the Pac-10 and go to the Rose Bowl with Michigan (Unless they somehow overtake LSU while Idle, which could happen if LSU loses too. The first Tiebreaker with Washington State is Head to head, and both are 6-2 in conf play, and USC would share the Championship and get the BCS bid.

--------------------------------------------------------------
The following is my Playoff idea. If you aren't interested, quit reading now.

My playoff: all 11 Conf champs get in + 13 At-Large selections for 24 teams.
BCS is used for getting the 13 At-large.
Procedure for selection
1) All Conference Champions are automatcally selected (11)
EXECPTION -- If there are co-champions, then BCS Tiebreaking procedures are used (usually head-to-head)
2) ANY 9, 10, 11 or 12 I-A win team is automatically in (upto 13)
3) If any spots are open, starting at the top of the BCS Standing, fill out the bids with any 8 I-A win team
4) If there are still any spots open, highest ranked 7 I-A win teams get in, Higher ranked first.

Why24 teams? There are enough spots for ALL the conf champs, so no one is left out, and there is ample room for schools so there is no more areguments as to which one-loss school gets the pleasure to lose to Oklahoma.

Top 8 in BCS get a first round Bye.
23 Games would be played, (8 first round, 8 second round, 4 for round of 8, 2 for final four, and 1 championship game) there are 28 bowls, so almost the same number of games would be played. Existing bowl sites would be used to host the games. Sugar would host the title game, Orange and Rose would host the final four, and Fiesta would get it's pick of who they host for the round of 8 over the other sites) If they were worried about travel costs, higher ranked could host the 1st round games, imangine Miami, OH hosting Minnesota...a Big Ten school. that would be a hot ticket...
Also, if there was a Big Ten vs Pac-10 matchup, the Rose bowl could get the choice of hosting it, and the same for the other bowl sites and their tie-ins...

1) Automatic Bids -- Champions
BCS Rank -- School (Conf)
#1 Oklahoma (Big XII)
#2 USC (Pac-10)
#3 LSU (SEC)
#4 Michigan

#9 FSU (ACC)
#10 Miami, FL (Big East)
#13 Miami, OH (MAC)
#19 Bosie State (WAC)

#22 Utah (MTW)
#29 Southern Miss (CUSA)
#51 North Texas (Sun Belt)

2) Automatic Bids -- 9+ I-A wins (Upto 13, 10 taken, leaves 3 free spots)
BCS Rank -- School (Record)
#5 Ohio State (10-2)
#6 Texas (9-2)
#7 Georgia (9-2)
#8 Tennessee (9-2)

#12 Iowa (9-3)
#14 Purdue (9-3)
#15 Washington State (9-3)
#17 TCU (10-1)

#28 Minnesota (9-3)
#34 Northern Illinois (9-2)

3) Whatever is left (3)
BCS Rank -- School (record)
#11 Florida (7-3) I'm leaving them in unless they lose next week
#16 Kansas State (8-3)
#18 Mississippi (8-3)

Okay, the seeds #1 plays winner of #9 - #24, #2 plays winner of #10 - #13 and so on.
#1 bracket plays #8 bracket, #2 plays #7 bracket and so on...

#1, #3, are in bracket A, #2, #4 in bracket B
Winner of bracket A plays winner of bracket B....hard to describe w/o a graphic
Top Eight get a first round bye (By giving the top eight a bye, it could be argued that IF the big six were that could, they should be in the top eight and get a bye)
Seeding (BCS rank if different) -- School (Conf, record)
#1 Oklahoma (Big XII South Champions, Big XII Leader)
#2 USC (Pac-10 Champ)
#3 LSU (SEC Leader)
#4 Michigan (Big Ten Leader)
#5 Ohio State (Big Ten, 10-2)
#6 Texas (Big XII, 9-2)
#7 Georgia (SEC, 9-2)
#8 Tennessee (SEC, 9-2)

#9 Florida State (ACC Champion)
#10 Miami, FL (Big East Leader)
#11 Florida (SEC, 7-3, MUST win their last game, or they're out!!!!!) <--------------------------------
#12 Iowa (Big Ten, 9-3)
#13 Miami, OH (MAC -- East Division Champion, MAC Leader, 10-1)
#14 Purdue (Big Ten, 9-3)
#15 Washington State (Pac-10, 9-3)
#16 Kansas State (Big XII North Champ, 8-3)

#17 TCU (CUSA, 10-1)
#18 Mississippi (SEC, 8-3)
#19 Bosie State (WAC Champion, 9-1)
#20 (#22) Utah (Mountain West Champion, 9-2)
#21 (#28) Minnesota (Big Ten, 9-3)
#22 (#29) Southern Miss (CUSA Champion, 8-3)
#23 (#34) Northern Illinois (MAC, 9-2)
#24 (#51) North Texas (Sun Belt Champion, 8-3)

If Florida is out, then Oklahoma State, has a chance of getting a bid

Conf Breakdowns
ACC: 1 out of 9 (0.111%)
Big XII: 3 out of 12 (0.250%)
Big East: 1 out of 8 (0.1250%)
Big Ten: 5 out of 11 (0.4545%)

CUSA: 2 out of 11 (0.1818%)
MAC: 2 out of 14 (0.1429%)
MTW: 1 out of 8 (0.1250%)
Pac-10: 2 out of 10 (0.2000%)

SEC: 5 out of 12 (0.4167%)
Sun Belt: 1 out of 8 (0.1250%)
WAC: 1 out of 10 (0.1000%)
Total 24 out of 113 (0.2124%) (None of the 4 Independent teams qualified)

Big Ten and the SEC both give 5 bids, showing the strength of those conferences
"BCS Six" give 17 bids, the "other five" give 7 bids (Only CUSA and the MAC gave 2 bids, the rest just 1)

What will do with all this at the end of the season, if I have the free time, I'll simulate the games with NCAA 2004 for the PS2, just like ESPN did last year with their 16 team (8?) playoff with NCAA 2003.

(edited by rikidozan on 24.11.03 1830)



Finished week 1 of my 2002-2003 College Football raitings. Only 17 weeks to go, then I can start on this season, sigh...

Watch this space for a link to my ratings

Promote this thread!
Bullitt
Shot in the dark








Since: 11.1.02
From: Houston

Since last post: 13 days
Last activity: 13 days
#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.00
How Jeff Sagarin and his all-knowing computer have Miami of Ohio as the 4th best team in Division 1A college football is beyond me...





This one's super lucky!
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The Patriots (my favorite team) traded Bledsoe (my favorite player - d'oh!) to the Bills right after the draft for Buffalo's 2003 1st-round pick.
- JayJayDean, AFC East Predictions (2002)
Related threads: BCS Bowl Projections for Week 13 - Homage to JayJayDean, BCS Bowl Projections for Week 12 - BCS Standings - More...
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