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17.9.14 0037
The W - Football - BCS Bowl Projections for Week 13
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Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
The Sugar Bowl's tie-in, the SEC is an At-large as it hosts the championship game.
The Orange Bowl can take the ACC or Big East champion, it is not required to take both.
The Fiesta Bowl gets to pick first, they lost the tie-in to the #1 BCS team, the Pac-10 picks second.
-------
Conference Champs (If the season ended today, I actually found the tiebreaking procedures, so I will apply them)
(FSU is the only team to win their conference so far this season)

ACC: FSU
Big XII: Oklahoma (over K State)
*****North: K State
*****South: Oklahoma
Big East: Miami (Tiebreaker #1, Head-to-head. They haven't played Pitt yet, but they did beat WV, which did beat Pitt)
Big Ten: Ohio State (Tiebreaker #4, Winning percentage of ALL games played, tOSU 0.909%, Michigan 0.818)
Pac-10: USC (BCS #3, WSU #10, USC is more than 5 spots higher.)
SEC: Mississippi (Only because of their 6-0 conf record)
*****East: Georgia ((in)famous Tiebreaker #7, Georgia is BCS #6, Tennessee #7, Florida #13. Tennessee is within 5 spots of Georgia, so it goes to head to head, Georgia wins)
*****West: Mississippi
At-large teams:
LSU (SEC), Highest ranked non-champion, ranked #4.
Texas (Big XII), next highest ranked non-champion , ranked #5
-------
Note: Below are 4 at-large selections, 1 for the SEC champ, 1 for the ACC/Big East champ (remember, the Orange bowl doesn't have to take both) and the other 2 are Texas and LSU.

Sugar Bowl (BCS #1 vs BCS #2): Oklahoma (Big XII) vs Ohio State (Big Ten)
Orange Bowl (ACC/Big East vs. At-large): Miami (Big East Champ, (see ya losers!)) vs Mississippi (SEC Champ, At-large)
Rose Bowl (At-large vs Pac-10): FSU (ACC Champ) vs USC (Pac-10 Champ)
Fiesta Bowl (At-large vs At-large): LSU (SEC, At-larg) vs Texas (Big XII, At-large)

Fiesta loses Oklahoma to the Sugar, so I have them taking Texas.
Rose lost Ohio State, so I have them taking FSU
-------
Next Week:
LSU plays Ole Miss. If LSU wins, they will stay in the race for #2 AND take possession of the SEC West (They would both be tied, but LSU would have the head-to-head AND BCS ranking
If Ole Miss wins, they win the SEC West, and will jump a few spots. Whatever happens, one will knock the other out of a BCS bowl.

Ohio State vs Michigan. Winner stays in the hunt for #2, and pretty much wins the Big Ten.

WV vs Syracuse. 'Cuse gave Miami a scare, and WV needs the win to stay in the Big East title hunt.

(edited by rikidozan on 17.11.03 1756)


Finished week 1 of my 2002-2003 College Football raitings. Only 17 weeks to go, then I can start on this season, sigh...

Watch this space for a link to my ratings
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redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.36
That Texas could somehow end up in the National Title game or even in a BCS game is a disgrace. The biggest game they played this year and they have 66 hung on them. And then they barely survive a Texas Tech team because Tech has a lousy kicker.
Ohio State should get taken out this week at the Big House, and if LSU gets through this week, they should have a chance if things break right to come out of nowhere and play for the national title at home against Oklahoma (might be the best chance anyone has of knocking the Sooners off).
As for tiebreaker #7, here's an interesting question: What if Florida knocks of FSU, and the SEC East teams are 5,6,9 in the BCS? Does it revert to old tiebreaker #7? And, would USC start making calls to the other SEC teams, promising them visits by USC or large guarantees in basketball in order for them to vote for the team that could prevent LSU from jumping them in the BCS?



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Quezzy
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Since: 6.1.02
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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.89
What if Georgia, Tennessee, AND Florida are within five spots of each other. They can't take the winner head to head because it's a three way tie again. So do they go back to just taking the highest ranked team?


Ahh sorry, already been asked. Guess i should read all the posts?

(edited by Quezzy on 17.11.03 1606)


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Zeruel
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

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#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
gleaned from the press release:

In the event of a three-way tie between Florida, Georgia and Tennessee, the highest team in the Bowl Championship Series standings would represent the East, with one caveat. If the top two teams are within five places of each other in the BCS, the head-to-head winner would go to the title game.

---

So, the only thing that they care about is the top 2 ranked teams. Florida will most likely be on the outside if all 3 win out, as Georgia has the win over TN.




Finished week 1 of my 2002-2003 College Football raitings. Only 17 weeks to go, then I can start on this season, sigh...

Watch this space for a link to my ratings

TheCow
Landjager








Since: 3.1.02
From: Knoxville, TN

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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.00
I still stand by my theory of Georgia winning the SEC East, but not going to a BCS game, by the way.





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Grimis
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Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
Think about this: there is a chance, if Michigan beats Ohio State, and Washington State loses once more, for Michigan to leapfrog USC in the computers, even though Michigan has 2 losses and USC only 1.



Quezzy
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Since: 6.1.02
From: The Moon

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#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.89
    Originally posted by rikidozan
    gleaned from the press release:

    In the event of a three-way tie between Florida, Georgia and Tennessee, the highest team in the Bowl Championship Series standings would represent the East, with one caveat. If the top two teams are within five places of each other in the BCS, the head-to-head winner would go to the title game.

    ---

    So, the only thing that they care about is the top 2 ranked teams. Florida will most likely be on the outside if all 3 win out, as Georgia has the win over TN.


According to some BCS expert, Tennessee has Vanderbilt and Kentucky left on the schedule who are combine 6 - 15, that dragging Tennessee down combined with a FLorida win over FSU could put Florida over Tennessee. Meaning the East championship would be between Florida and Georgia. Florida won head to head so that would put them in the CHampionship. This is also the best scenario for LSU. If LSU beats Georgia again in the SEC CHampionship they get no quality win because according to the BCS you can't get quality win points for beating the same team twice. But they could get quality win points for beating Florida. ALso, if LSU avenges their only loss this season they might seem even better in the pollsters eyes.



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JayJayDean
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Since: 2.1.02
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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.22
I have tried to be a supporter of the BCS as an objective way of picking among one-loss teams if necessary, but if USC wins out and somehow gets knocked off as the #2 team in the country someone should be shot.



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Battlezone
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Since: 27.2.03
From: Seattle, Washington

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#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.79
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
    I have tried to be a supporter of the BCS as an objective way of picking among one-loss teams if necessary, but if USC wins out and somehow gets knocked off as the #2 team in the country someone should be shot.


I know there's a lot of Buckeye haters on this board, but IMO, if Ohio State runs the table and doesn't get a chance to defend their title, then there's something horribly wrong. No, they haven't won pretty, but they've played one of the most difficult schedules of teams in the country, and their defense is probably second only to Oklahoma. (And considering how easy it is to play defense when you're up 77-0 as opposed to 17-10, I might even give the Bucks the nod there too.)

As far as the BCS, I've changed my tune a bit. I'm not sure it's the best way to determine the two teams playing for a championship, but it is a damn good way to determine the best teams in the country. I've said before that I couldn't think of a viable playoff system, but one involving the BCS might not be a bad start.



Does this make any sense? Let's say you're at a restaurant, and you see a man stagger away from the bar and walk directly into the wall, mistaking it for a door, banging his face and falling down, only to pick himself up and walk into the wall again, and then again, over and over. Would you say to yourself: "I admire that man! He is loyal to the tactic of walking into the wall, in the hope that it eventually will turn into a door!"

No! You'd say: "He must be a Cubs fan."
-Dave Barry
Quezzy
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Since: 6.1.02
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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.89
I also would not object to Ohio State in the championship game. THey have beaten better teams, played harder places and their one loss is to a better team and they are the defending champions. So they win by a touchdown or less all the time and win with defense. The Bucs did the same thing last year and nobody complained.

Really if LSU, Ohio State and USC all finish with one loss then you could make an argument for any of them which is why it's stupid that they basically just pick one of them at random.



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Reverend J Shaft
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Since: 25.6.03
From: Home of The Big House

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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.27
    Originally posted by Quezzy
    I also would not object to Ohio State in the championship game. THey have beaten better teams, played harder places and their one loss is to a better team and they are the defending champions. So they win by a touchdown or less all the time and win with defense. The Bucs did the same thing last year and nobody complained.

    Really if LSU, Ohio State and USC all finish with one loss then you could make an argument for any of them which is why it's stupid that they basically just pick one of them at random.


Though I obviously despise the Buckeyes, I would find it hard to disagree that OSU would deserve to play in the championship game if they beat U-M (which isn't going to happen). They would have beaten 4 teams ranked in the top 25 and 1 of them on the road. USC will have beaten 1 team at home in the top 25 and LSU will have gone 1-1 at home against top 25 teams. Plus, wouldn't everyone want to see the defending champs play the #1 team (if they beat U-M, which they won't)? Can you imagine the point spread in that game?

I guess my point is... don't worry, OSU won't win this weekend anyway.



Grimis
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Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

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#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
Here's a question though: if Ohio State, USC and LSU all finish with one loss, and Oklahoma beats Texas Tech but loses the Big 12 title game, who winds up in New Orleans? Would a loss that late in the season drop Oklahoma far enough to finish # 3 or 4?

And I bet the Rose Bowl would love the concept of their USC/OSU matchup going to New Orleans and geting stuck with Oklahoma vs LSU or something like that.



JayJayDean
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Since: 2.1.02
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#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.22
USC would only be getting hosed because the Pac-10 is so down this year it's hurting their schedule strength. The Big 10 has seven teams with records of 7-4 or better. The Pac-10 has four. Their non-conference schedules are fairly comparable, especially when you look at LSU's, which was ridiculously easy by comparison. It's just too bad for USC that the other Pac-10 teams decided to get play like they were Conference USA teams instead.

I think USC beats Ohio State by at least two TDs on a neutral field.



“To get ass, you’ve got to bring ass." -- Roy Jones Jr.

"Your input has been noted.
I hope you don't take it personally if I disregard it." -- Guru Zim
Battlezone
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Since: 27.2.03
From: Seattle, Washington

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#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.79
    Originally posted by Grimis
    Here's a question though: if Ohio State, USC and LSU all finish with one loss, and Oklahoma beats Texas Tech but loses the Big 12 title game, who winds up in New Orleans? Would a loss that late in the season drop Oklahoma far enough to finish # 3 or 4?

    And I bet the Rose Bowl would love the concept of their USC/OSU matchup going to New Orleans and geting stuck with Oklahoma vs LSU or something like that.


I think that even if Oklahoma loses, their lead is big enough that they might not drop from #1. They'd drop to #2 at the very least. I think the only way that changes is if they get clobbered in the Big 12 Championship Game.

    Originally posted by JJD
    I think USC beats Ohio State by at least two TDs on a neutral field.


I disagree. I think the top three teams in the Big 10 (Michigan, OSU, Purdue) could handle USC, with OSU being the only close game. Hey, I live in Seattle, and I've been forced to watch Pac-10 games every Saturday (stupid ABC regional coverage), and I'm NOT impressed with the Pac-10. Sorry.




Does this make any sense? Let's say you're at a restaurant, and you see a man stagger away from the bar and walk directly into the wall, mistaking it for a door, banging his face and falling down, only to pick himself up and walk into the wall again, and then again, over and over. Would you say to yourself: "I admire that man! He is loyal to the tactic of walking into the wall, in the hope that it eventually will turn into a door!"

No! You'd say: "He must be a Cubs fan."
-Dave Barry
ShotGunShep
Frankfurter








Since: 20.2.03

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#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.04
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
    USC would only be getting hosed because the Pac-10 is so down this year it's hurting their schedule strength. The Big 10 has seven teams with records of 7-4 or better. The Pac-10 has four. Their non-conference schedules are fairly comparable, especially when you look at LSU's, which was ridiculously easy by comparison. It's just too bad for USC that the other Pac-10 teams decided to get play like they were Conference USA teams instead.

    I think USC beats Ohio State by at least two TDs on a neutral field.

Well, let's look at the Pac-10's schedule. Arizona played LSU(13) and TCU(17). ASU played Iowa(14). CAl played Kansas State(5). Oregon played Michigan. The pussy ass beavers played nobody. The cardinal played nobody. UCLA played Colorado(22) and Oklahoma(1). USC played Auburn(6). Washington played Ohio State(2). WSU played Notre Dame(16) and Colorado(17).

Now sure, most of those teams have fallen in the rankings since they played the Pac Ten schools. But how are the coaches/ADs gonna know that? I think most teams put in a good effort to play good teams(and you do schedule years ahead).

Traditionally the Pac 10 schools beat the hell out of each other. Washington Kills Oregon. Oregon kills Cal. Cal kills Washington.
ASU stomps Oregon. Oregon stomps Cal. Cal beats ASU.

Everybody and their dead grandmothers murder the Wildcats. They beat Washington. etc. etc.



You Samoans are all the same. You have no faith in the essential decency of the white man's culture.
JayJayDean
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Since: 2.1.02
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#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.22
    Originally posted by Battlezone
    I disagree. I think the top three teams in the Big 10 (Michigan, OSU, Purdue) could handle USC, with OSU being the only close game. Hey, I live in Seattle, and I've been forced to watch Pac-10 games every Saturday (stupid ABC regional coverage), and I'm NOT impressed with the Pac-10. Sorry.



I live in Seattle, too. GO HUSK--...never mind.

I think USC is so far above everyone else in the Pac-10 right now (a la early '90s Washington) that it's not fair to judge them relative to the Pac-10. USC destroyed Auburn's offense and OSU's offense isn't much better. PLUS USC's offense is miles better than anyone in the Big 10 that I can think of.



“To get ass, you’ve got to bring ass." -- Roy Jones Jr.

"Your input has been noted.
I hope you don't take it personally if I disregard it." -- Guru Zim
Reverend J Shaft
Liverwurst








Since: 25.6.03
From: Home of The Big House

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#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.27
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
    PLUS USC's offense is miles better than anyone in the Big 10 that I can think of.


Whoa, easy there on the comparisons. A quick check shows Michigan's offense is pretty much equal to USC's statistically:

Team TDs RushYds PassYds TotalYds
USC 46 173 pg 285 pg 458 pg
Michigan 48 188 pg 270 pg 458 pg

Both conferences have a tendency to beat up on each other, I believe.
ShotGunShep
Frankfurter








Since: 20.2.03

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#18 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.04
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
    I live in Seattle, too. GO HUSK--...never mind.

    I think USC is so far above everyone else in the Pac-10 right now (a la early '90s Washington)

Do you think they will get put on probation just like the early 90's Huskies?
(edited by ShotGunShep on 19.11.03 1511)

(edited by CRZ on 19.11.03 1721)
Quezzy
Knackwurst








Since: 6.1.02
From: The Moon

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#19 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.89
USC vs. Ohio State is a tough one. I think i'd have to go with USC in that one but I DO think that Michigan would beat USC, maybe even by 2 or 3 touchdowns.

And I do agree that Ohio State will lose to Michigan.

As for Oklahoma losing the Big 12 championship. Well I just checked the BCS standings to see that Oklahoma has a 6 point lead. I don't think a loss is going to hurt them enough but who knows. I'm not sure how much the one loss effects the score though. They'd probably still be atleast 2 if not 1 in all the polls and computers. And their strength of schedule is number 10? Hmm, I don't remember them playing that many good teams, but then again nobody looked good compared to them.



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ges7184
Lap cheong








Since: 7.1.02
From: Birmingham, AL

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#20 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.49
If OK lost the Big 12 Championship, they would have still have a shot to the championship game as long as they didn't drop out of the top 4.

They would pick up one point for the loss, and one point for every spot they dropped. I agree with you, the computers probably won't drop them significantly (and they could very well stay 1 in some of them), and the SOS will only be stronger after the Big 12 game.

But keep in mind that both Ohio State and USC would probably pick up a spot in the polls, and thus gain a point in the BCS score. That should put them in the 6.something range. OK is at 1.8, would go to 2.8 automatcally with the loss, and automatically pickup whatever number their rank ends up (so at 4, they would be at 6.8 without even beginning to calculate the change in computer score).

But I don't think OK is losing anyway.



(edited by ges7184 on 21.11.03 1355)


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