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The W - Football - BCS - 11/11/2002
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CubsWoo
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Since: 25.4.02
From: Chi-town burbs

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#1 Posted on
The current BCS rankings, from espn.com:

1. Ohio State - 3.41
2. Miami (FL) - 4.10
3. Washington State - 8.77
4. Oklahoma - 10.05
5. Texas - 11.50
6. Georgia - 14.48
7. Notre Dame - 14.93
8. Iowa - 16.01
9. USC - 17.71
10. Michigan - 24.02
11. Florida State - 30.58
12. Kansas State - 31.17
13. LSU - 33.45
14. Florida - 35.11
15. Penn State - 36.41

Bowl Projections:

Rose Bowl - Iowa vs. Washington State
Sugar Bowl - Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl - Texas vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl - Ohio State vs. Miami

Remaining Games for undefeated and one-loss teams:

Ohio State:
At Illinois
Vs. #10 Michigan

Miami:
Vs. #21 Pittsburgh
At Syracuse
Vs. #13 Virginia Tech

Washington State:
Vs. Washington
At UCLA

Oklahoma:
At Baylor
Vs. Texas Tech
At Oklahoma State
Possible Big 12 Championship game (Current opponent - #18 Colorado)

Texas:
At Texas Tech
Vs. Texas A&M
Possible Big 12 Championship game (Current opponent - #18 Colorado)

Georgia:
At Auburn
Vs. Georgia Tech
Possible SEC Championship game (Current opponent - #12 LSU)

Notre Dame:
Vs. Rutgers
At #8 USC

Iowa:
At Minnesota

So what does this all prove? Not much. With four weeks (plus championship games) left to go, there's probably going to be a lot of turmoil in the BCS. My picks:

Ohio State - Michigan, Michigan, Michigan. Illinois is improving but I don't think they get it done against the Buckeye defense. That leaves a showdown in Columbus 2 weeks from now. Tressel isn't Woody Hayes and he isn't John Cooper but he can beat Michigan as he proved last year. Michigan has stopped OSU from winning the national title at least once in the 90's and they'll do their best to do it again. I for one think they won't, but I'm in the minority here.

Miami - Probably the hardest road of these 8 teams with 2 opponents in the top 25 and a very hot Syracuse team that beat Va. Tech in a 3OT thriller. Thankfully Pitt and Tech are in the Orange Bowl where the 'Canes are basically unbeatable. They need to keep the same fire they used to rout Tennessee into next week, and if they take care of business they'll probably run the table. Never count out Tech though.

Washington State - Winning the Apple Cup assures them a spot in the Rose Bowl and they need to beat UCLA to keep their BCS standing. They're poised to take over the #2 spot if OSU or Miami falters and they're salivating at the chance to get revenge on Ohio State for their only loss. WSU/OSU would make for a very cool title game - especially if they move it to the Rose Bowl where the Pac 10 and Big 10 belong.

Oklahoma - 3 cupcakes to get their confidence back after losing a heartbreaker to A&M. Too bad they won't help their strength of schedule. They need these 3 wins AND the Big 12 title game to keep their title hopes alive. They might still be the best team in the nation but you can't call yourself that after a loss like that. Root for Colorado.

Texas - In the same boat as OU. I'm not sure how the Big 12 title game tiebreakers work, but I believe they need OU to lose to get into the title game. And as much as I like Texas as a team, seeing another team not win their conference championship and be in the national title game is just awful.

Georgia: They're a lock for the SEC title game, but they'll need to win out and get a LOT of help to play in Tempe. They'll get into a major bowl, though.

Notre Dame: I don't think the Irish beat USC on the road, so with 2 losses, expect to see them in the Cotton Bowl. Unless the BCS people decide money is more important than the best teams (which they've been known to do.)

Iowa: I've heard a lot of people call them the best team in the Big 10. I disagree with that, but an OSU/Iowa national title game would be very cool. Expect them to rout Minnesota and meet WSU or USC in the Rose Bowl.






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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 0.00
Ohio State/Michigan - I can't wait.

How sweet would it be for Miami to lose and the top 2 be Ohio State and Washington State. Does the Rose Bowl take priority over the Fiesta Bowl in that situation?





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Since: 29.1.02
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#3 Posted on
How sweet would it be for Miami to lose and the top 2 be Ohio State and Washington State. Does the Rose Bowl take priority over the Fiesta Bowl in that situation?

I would love to see anything that again exposes the flaws of the BCS, but it probably won't happen, though it's kind of interesting, isn't it? The Big Ten can screw up a lot of things having so many highly ranked teams. Iowa should go to the Rose Bowl, but then it gets complicated. The #2 team in the Big Ten should face the #2 SEC team (I think) in the Capital One Bowl. Iowa, right now, is the #1 Big Ten team, just based on number of games played. But if they wind up with just that one loss, it's non-conference, and if OSU wins out, there's a tie for the Big Ten Championship. Iowa and OSU don't play each other this year. Anyway. Supposing OSU goes to the Fiesta Bowl, does Iowa automatically get the Rose Bowl bid, or does the Rose Bowl decide that Michigan is a little more lucrative, even though they got walloped by Iowa? On a technicality, there's no #2 team if 1st place is a tie, so I'd assume that means the Cap One and Rose Bowls can pick n choose there. Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl and you've got one more team clamoring (rightly) for a conference playoff as well as a National title playoff.

Notre Dame will shoot through the roof if they beat USC. I think USC's got the #1 toughest schedule as of right now. Those are some big quality points for beating the #9 team, as well as the team with the toughest schedules (so says the BCS). The echoes will have their alarm clocks set extra early for this one. Miami's strength of schedule just got shot down a few points (#40 I think). Having VT with two losses doesn't help, and even though Pitt and Syracuse have been playing well lately, they're not exactly ranked highly, so that will keep on hurting Miami's strength of schedule. VT being out of the Top 15 also takes away any more "quality" points Miami could have gotten. As of right now, Notre Dame's beaten two top 15 teams (FSU and Michigan), and USC would make 3. So there's a very good chance that, two weeks from now, we'll be looking at a BCS poll that has Notre Dame ranked above Miami...

Is it 2006 yet? :)



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Since: 23.5.02
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#4 Posted on
Miami should be #1 just by the beating they put on UT.

And yes I hate the University of Tennessee,why do you ask? :)



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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
    Originally posted by CubsWoo
    The current BCS rankings, from espn.com:
    Bowl Projections:

    Rose Bowl - Iowa vs. Washington State
    Sugar Bowl - Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame
    Orange Bowl - Texas vs. Georgia
    Fiesta Bowl - Ohio State vs. Miami




ARE YOU HIGH??????????

2/4 ain't bad i suppose, but you have 2 bowl games alllllll wrong.


just an fyi to everyone. to be considered as an at large team, the team must have 9 non exempt wins against Div I-A teams, and be ranked in the top 12 of the BCS standings.

Rose bowl - Iowa vs Washington state. -- Big ten vs Pac 10, i have your back there, good call

Sugar bowl Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame --- Sugar bowl is a SEC champ vs At large game. right now Georgia has the best SEC conference record at 6-1 in the east, and LSU is at 4-1 in the west, behind the inelegible Alabama at 5-1. Texas is #5 in the BCS with a 9-1 record and it would be most likly Georgia vs Texas if the season ended right now
MY PICK: Georgia vs Texas

Orange bowl Texas vs Georgia -- Orange bowl is ACC champ vs Big East champ. Texas nor Georgia fit the bill. Florida State is 6-0 in the ACC with Maryland close behind at 4-1, their sole loss coming from Florida State. If both FSU and Maryland end the season with 1 conference loss each, Maryland would take it if they finished 5 spots higher in the average of both polls, otherwise FSU would be champs.
Right now Maryland is 19 in both polls, FSU is 15 in both polls. A FSU loss and Marylands wins would push them past FSU.

Currently Pittsburgh is leading with a 5-0 record, and Miami is 4-0, but the Big East is going to be in the Fiesta bowl, so that is moot. Because the Big East will be in the Fiesta bowl, Oklahoma from the Big 12 will be in the Orange bowl, because they lost their bid from the Fiesta bowl which is the big game, so they will take colorado because of that. Oklahoma is 8-1 and #4 in the BCS, and one more win, they will be eligible.
MY PICK: FSU vs Oklahoma

/// i had FSU vs Colorado before the edit, but i forgot about the at-large rule. Colorado is 7-3, would have to win their 2 games, AND make the top 12 of the BCS. they are not ranked right now in the BCS. they are 18 in the Coaches poll, and 17 in the AP right now. right there is 17.5 BCS points...and i'm to lazy right now to look up their computer rankings...

Fiesta Bowl Ohio State vs Miami, (FL) -- BCS #1 vs BCS #2 yup-yup-yup


for the benifit of several readers, the Terps will go to the Gator bowl, unless Maryland makes the tie breaker as explained above.
Gator bowl is ACC vs Big East and it would be Maryland vs Notre Dame in a rematch of the Season opener, and the dir. of the Gator bowl has no objection to that match-up, according to The Washington Post.



(edited by rikidozan on 12.11.02 0701)

(edited by rikidozan on 12.11.02 0704)

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CubsWoo
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Since: 25.4.02
From: Chi-town burbs

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#6 Posted on
The BCS does calculate things differently. Sure, you COULD go with conference champions, but I think that's the wrong way to go(and at the official bowl site, Orange/Sugar are simply "BCS vs. BCS".) If you go the championship route, you get:

Rose: Iowa v. Wash. St. The Rose Bowl doesn't HAVE to take Iowa if Ohio State makes the Fiesta, but this should always be a Big 10/Pac 10 bowl. Tradition!

Orange: Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame. Big 12 vs. the best non-conference team in the nation seems to fill enough seats and keep enough people watching.

Sugar: Georgia vs. Florida State. But really, does it MATTER who plays Georgia? (I'd rather see Texas or USC, since that'd make for a more competitive game,) but I suppose Georgia will bring enough fans to fill the Superdome and that's all they want, isn't it?

Fiesta: Ohio State vs. Miami (FL). Easiest pick in the book.

And the lesser bowls (many of these are fudges on my part, so nyah - teams without a winning record are not included until they get their 6 wins and .500+)

New Orleans Bowl - New Mexico State vs. Tulane

GMAC Bowl - Southern Mississippi vs. #25 Bowling Green

Tangerine Bowl - Virgina vs. #22 Iowa State

Sega Sports Las Vegas Bowl - New Mexico (Need a win) vs. #22 Oregon

ConAgra Foods Hawaii Bowl - Louisville(need a win) vs. Hawaii

Motor City Bowl - Northern Illinois vs. Wisconsin/at-large

Insight Bowl - West Virginia vs. #24 Arizona State

Houston Bowl - Texas Tech vs. At-Large(no C-USA teams qualify)

MainStay Independence Bowl - Nebraska vs. Kentucky

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl - #8 USC vs. #3 Texas

2002 Alamo Bowl presented by Mastercard: #11 Kansas State vs. Minnesota

Continental Tire Bowl - #13 Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl - South Carolina (need a win) vs. At-Large(no Big 10 teams qualify)

Seattle Bowl - BYU (Need a win) vs. Clemson

Crucial.com Humanitarian Bowl - Boise State vs. Texas A&M

Wells-Fargo Sun Bowl - #16 Penn State vs. UCLA

Silicon Valley Football Classic - Nevada (Need a win) vs. California

AXA Liberty Bowl - #17 Colorado State vs. #24 TCU

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl - Arkansas vs. #20 North Carolina State

San Francisco Bowl - Air Force vs. Boston College (need a win) or Syracuse (Need 2 wins)

Outback Bowl - #10 Michigan or At-Large vs. Auburn

SBC Cotton Bowl - #18 Colorado vs. #12 LSU

Toyota Gator Bowl - #19 Maryland vs. #21 Pittsburgh

Capital One Bowl - #10 Michigan or At-Large vs. #5 Florida

Teams not bowl-slated, but are eligible:

Miami (OH)
Marshall
Toledo
Oregon State
South Florida

Teams that become bowl-eligible with a win:

Wake Forest
Boston College
Louisville
New Mexico
BYU
Washington
South Carolina
Tennessee
Mississippi
North Texas
Nevada
Fresno State







ges7184
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Since: 7.1.02
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#7 Posted on
Doesn't Notre Dame have some rules working in their favor as far as getting into the BCS bowls? It hasn't been a factor for a while, but I seemed to remember that if ND met certain criteria, the bowl committee would HAVE to take them as an at-large. Even if rules are not in place, I have to believe if ND finishes in the top 10, they will be an at-large team.

Cubs-woo, a FYI, Kentucky is not eligible for a bowl this year. They are under NCAA sanctions from the Hal Mumme era.
Zeruel
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
"Rose: Iowa v. Wash. St. The Rose Bowl doesn't HAVE to take Iowa if Ohio State makes the Fiesta, but this should always be a Big 10/Pac 10 bowl. Tradition!"

Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong.

the Rose bowl MUST have a Big Ten vs. Pac 10 match.

From http://www.collegebcs.com/
"The Fiesta Bowl is serving as the BCS title game this year. The Big Ten and Pac 10 Champions go back to playing each other in the Rose Bowl, as long as neither qualifies for the Fiesta Bowl.
...[I]t is expected that the Rose Bowl will matchup a Big Ten team with a Pac 10 team if at all possible, even if it is unable to have the champion from either conference (or both)."
---
from http://www.tournamentofroses.com/history/bowlhistory.htm
"Following the 1998 regular season Big Ten and Pac-10 Teams will be eligible to compete for the national championship in an arrangement with the Bowl Championship Series. The Rose Bowl hosted the National Championship Game in 2002."
---

Because the Rose bowl was the National Championship game last year, the tie in teams MUST play NO MATTER WHAT.

So, next year, the Fiesta Bowl is EXPECTED to have the Big 12 vs an At-Large team, NO MATTER WHAT.

The Bowl are stated BCS vs BCS because the teams depend on who's in the Fiesta bowl. once the #1 and #2 are chosen, then all the other teams fall in like to tie-ins. if you go to the actual bowl sites, they explain this.

from http://www.nokiasugarbowl.org/football/bcs.html

"The BCS, which runs through the 2005 regular season and 2006 bowl season, consists of the Rose Bowl, Nokia Sugar Bowl, FedEx Orange Bowl and the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. Conferences with automatic berths include the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 and the Southeastern Conferences.

The BCS also notes the importance of regional consideration regarding team selection. Specifically, as participating members of the BCS, the four BCS Bowls will host the following conference champions in the years the national championship game is not played at their site. Regional consideration tie-ins include the ACC or Big East champion in the FedEx Orange Bowl, the SEC champion in the Nokia Sugar Bowl, the Big Ten and the Pac-10 champions in the Rose Bowl and the Big 12 champion in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl.


Should a BCS Bowl's regional tie-in champion be ranked number one or two in the final BCS standings, when such bowl is not hosting the national championship game, the number one or two-ranked team shall move to the national championship game and the Bowl shall select a replacement team from the BCS pool of eligible teams. The pool will consist of any Division I-A team that is ranked among the Top 12 in the final BCS standings and has achieved nine wins during the regular season excluding NCAA-exempted contests."

---------
from http://www.collegebcs.com/

"Which teams are eligible for BCS bowls?

There are eight spots in the four BCS bowl games. Six of those spots are reserved for the champions of the six BCS conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac Ten, SEC), regardless of their ranking in the BCS standings.

Exception: If the #1 and #2 teams are from the same BCS-conference and neither is the champion, then the champion of that conference will not participate in the BCS.
After that, two at-large teams are selected. The at-large teams must come from different conferences, unless the #1 and #2 teams are from the same conference.

At-large teams can earn guaranteed selection in the following ways (in order of preference):

Finish first or second in the BCS rankings.
Finish in the top 6 of the BCS standings as an independent team or non-BCS conference champion. If this happens, then Notre Dame would also automatically qualify by winning 9 non-exempt games or finishing in the top 10 in the BCS standings.
Finish third in the BCS rankings.
Finish fourth in the BCS rankings.
If at any step along the way, the two at-large spots become filled, the process stops.

If a situation arises where there are more "automatically qualified" teams than spots available (note that this could only happen in step 2), then the bowls get to select from among the automatically qualified teams, and someone gets their feelings hurt.

If there are still open spots after all that, then any team can be selected if it:


Has 9 wins against I-A opponents in non-exempt games, and
is rated in the top 12 of the BCS standings.
Note that once every four years, a team may count a win against a I-AA opponent toward the nine needed for BCS-eligibility. So far, no one has used that exception.

You're kidding about Notre Dame, right?
No. Notre Dame, because they are an independent, could go out and schedule the worst teams money can buy - the kind of schedule that would make Kansas St jealous - go 9-2 and automatically qualify for a BCS spot, but only if another independent or non-BCS conference champion did also. The message here is that any 9-win Notre Dame team is at least as deserving of a BCS spot as any "minor" team who manages to finish in the top 6 of the BCS standings. Given how hard it is for non-BCS teams to finish in the top 6, It is not likely that this will happen anytime soon. "

------------
ok...

Champs if season ended today:
ACC: FSU 6-0
Big East: Miami (FL) 8-0 (4-0) they play pittsburgh which is 8-2 (4-0) and will most likly lost to Miami and the conf. title.
Big Ten: Iowa 7-0
Big 12: Colorado or Texas, both are 5-1 in their divisions
Pac 10: Washington State 6-0
SEC: Georgia 6-1 in the East

those are 6 of your 8 BCS vs BCS teams.

now for the 2 at-large teams

BCS top 4
#1 Ohio State
#2 Miami (FL)
#3 Washington State (Pac 10 leader)
#4 Oklahoma

Washington State is the Pac 10 leader, so they're already counted for the Rose Bowl.

Oklahoma gets the first At-Large spot.

What about the 2nd At-Large spot? It goes to a team with 9 I-A wins and is in the BCS top 12.
#5 Texas is 9-1 in the Big 12



The following WILL happen because it is what the BCS system has mandated:
Fiesta: Big 12 vs At-Large
Rose: Big Ten vs Pac 10
Orange: ACC vs Big East
Sugar: SEC vs At-Large

Fiesta has the National Championship game this year, therefore:

Fiesta: BCS #1 vs BCS #2 -- Ohio State of the Big Ten vs Miami (FL) of the Big East

Rose: Big Ten vs Pac 10 -- Iowa vs Washington State

Orange: ACC vs Big East -- FSU vs Miami (FL) Whoa! Miami (FL) is in the Fiesta bowl, therefore an At-Large team gets the spot...lets pick....Oklahoma

Sugar: SEC vs At-Large -- Georgia vs Texas, the other At-large team.

When you say "Orange: Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame..." you are making a prediction that CAN NOT HAPPEN. First of all, Oklahoma is Big 12, and Notre Dame is considered Big East for non BCS games only, UNLESS a non-BCS conference team finishs with at least 9 Div I-A non exempt wins, AND finish in the Top 6 of the BCS, or ND is #3 or #4 in the BCS and are selected as a At-Large Team.

Therefore, there WILL be an ACC vs Big East in the Orange Bowl. I don't know why you can not accept that. It is unchangeable unless one is in the Fiesta Bowl, like Miami (FL). The Orange Bowl must select an At-Large team.

The 8 BCS team selection is unchangable:
BCS #1 + #2 + 6 conf champs + 2 at large (if needed). cut and dry.









Wrestling has been rhyming with ass. I miss shows and it makes me all shades of ambivalence. WWE is starting to suck again. The crops?
Jeezum Spice! Someone stole my crops. What in the ham fat is going on. That's just poo-doo!
That's just my 2.4856 Yen.
R-D-Z
CubsWoo
Bauerwurst








Since: 25.4.02
From: Chi-town burbs

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#9 Posted on
I understand your point about the At-Large spots. But like you said:

Finish first or second in the BCS rankings.
Finish in the top 6 of the BCS standings as an independent team or non-BCS conference champion.
Finish third in the BCS rankings.
Finish fourth in the BCS rankings.
Has 9 wins against I-A opponents in non-exempt games, and
is rated in the top 12 of the BCS standings.

So far, Notre Dame is at the same level as Texas - "9 wins in non-exempt games, and in the top 12."

In my opinion, Texas NEEDS to finish in the top 4 of the BCS to make a BCS bowl. Straight from ESPN.com:

"If Miami is ranked first, then the Orange Bowl will declare the Big East champion as its host team. The 'Canes would be put in the Fiesta and then the Orange would get first pick among the at-large teams. The Orange Bowl wants the Irish even if they lose to USC and fall to 10-2.

"We have to put asses in seats. Notre Dame will fill us up," Art Hertz, a past president of the game, said Saturday in Knoxville. "The way the system is now, if we don't sell our tickets, we're in the hole.""




evilwaldo
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Since: 7.2.02
From: New York, NY

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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 0.00

    Originally posted by CubsWoo


    "We have to put asses in seats. Notre Dame will fill us up," Art Hertz, a past president of the game, said Saturday in Knoxville. "The way the system is now, if we don't sell our tickets, we're in the hole.""



That is why teams like Michigan, Notre Dame, and Penn State get a little more leaway than others. Their alumni can and will fill any stadium in the country by themselves. The couple of extra million dollars that they generate through ticket sales, not to mention hotel rooms, dinners, airfares, etc. are the difference between losing money and making money.

Notre Dame did get a break this year when the Kickoff Classic was changed to count as a BCS eligable win. The rule not counting that game was stupid to begin with and the NCAA made a rare decision that made sense.



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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 7 days
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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
    Originally posted by CubsWoo
    I understand your point about the At-Large spots. But like you said:

    Finish first or second in the BCS rankings.
    Finish in the top 6 of the BCS standings as an independent team or non-BCS conference champion.
    Finish third in the BCS rankings.
    Finish fourth in the BCS rankings.
    Has 9 wins against I-A opponents in non-exempt games, and
    is rated in the top 12 of the BCS standings.

    So far, Notre Dame is at the same level as Texas - "9 wins in non-exempt games, and in the top 12."

    In my opinion, Texas NEEDS to finish in the top 4 of the BCS to make a BCS bowl. Straight from ESPN.com:

    "If Miami is ranked first, then the Orange Bowl will declare the Big East champion as its host team. The 'Canes would be put in the Fiesta and then the Orange would get first pick among the at-large teams. The Orange Bowl wants the Irish even if they lose to USC and fall to 10-2.

    "We have to put asses in seats. Notre Dame will fill us up," Art Hertz, a past president of the game, said Saturday in Knoxville. "The way the system is now, if we don't sell our tickets, we're in the hole.""



i still don't understand why you think Oklahoma will take the ACC's spot in the orange bowl...doesn't make a lick of sense...

true, ND and Texas are both 9-1, but Texas is in the top 6 of the BCS right now, ND isn't at #7.
Ohio State should run the table
Miami (FL) should too, but VA tech MIGHT beable to take the last game
Washington State "" "" ""
Oklahoma "" "" ""
Texas "" "" ""
Georgia "" "" ""

so ND has to pray for just one of them to lose one game, drop out of the top 7, and ND moving up, after beating rutgers and so cal.


(edited by rikidozan on 12.11.02 1234)


Wrestling has been rhyming with ass. I miss shows and it makes me all shades of ambivalence. WWE is starting to suck again. The crops?
Jeezum Spice! Someone stole my crops. What in the ham fat is going on. That's just poo-doo!
That's just my 2.4856 Yen.
R-D-Z
mskj
Summer sausage








Since: 10.1.02
From: Tennessee

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#12 Posted on
As a Buckeye fan I am happy to see Ohio State number 1. I can't help but think of the last time we were number 1 in the BCS though. It was the first one that ever came out, back in 1998. OSU lost at home that weekend to unranked Michigan State. That ended up being one of only two years that a John Cooper team beat Michigan and the Buckeyes ended up number 2 in the final standings.

I don't think the Buckeyes will lose this year, but it wouldn't surprise me. Tressel is doing an awesome job recruiting, and his best team is probably two years away. Hopefully by then we will be going for back to back to back titles.



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Since: 2.1.02
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#13 Posted on

    As of right now, Notre Dame's beaten two top 15 teams (FSU and Michigan), and USC would make 3. So there's a very good chance that, two weeks from now, we'll be looking at a BCS poll that has Notre Dame ranked above Miami...

Also, as of right now, Miami has beaten two top 15 teams. As it stands right now, Notre Dame has to make up close to 11 points to overtake Miami. The only way I could see that happening would be for Miami to lose. If Miami runs the table, ND has *no* shot to finish above of them (and rightly so).





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#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.03

It's a good thing we have the BCS to keep all this stuff from becoming complicated
I tend to think a be-all, end-all, national champion-crowning solution for College football does not exist. Except maybe in theory.

There are too many teams who all play games based on agreements between schools that are made, usually, several years before a game is ever played between the two schools.

I personally think that the only solution that would work would involve something akin to the system in place in European (nay, World) soccer. That's the only other sporting league I can think of that's got similar complications: way too many teams, too many divisions, too many historic rivalries. And even they have several cups (fuck, they've even got a cup-winners' cup fer chrissakes). And they play for 8 or 9 months of the year.

The problem is that every college team in the country is in business for itself. And getting them to change is not going to be easy, especially at storied football schools like Miami, Florida, FSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Texas, Oklahoma, etc.

Without a full-scale restructuring of NCAA football replete with governing body determining schedules, etc., I don't see how a solution can be found. And I just don't see every school in the NCAA signing on for such a system when it risks (as they see it) everything they've built for themselves over the last hundred years.




/tarnish...

how come you're so afraid of things that dont make any sense to you? do you water your raisins daily? do you have any raisins? is there anything that does make sense to you? are you afraid of twelve button suits? how come you're so afraid to stop talking?
Swordsman Yen
Frankfurter








Since: 16.2.02
From: Shaolin

Since last post: 3993 days
Last activity: 3976 days
#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 10.00
From the desk of Swordsman Yen
A couple of thoughts:

- Everybody has already punched Oklahoma's ticket for the Big 12 Championship. Not so fast there. The remaining games they have are against Baylor, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. Baylor is probably the only true cupcake of these 3. Tech has a high powered offense that could give the Sooners trouble if Oklahoma's defense naps for the second week in a row, and let's not forget that OSU is the team that derailed Oklahoma's run at the title last year and is certainly upset capable.

- I'd like to see a playoff system that still includes the BCS. Have the champions of all 6 major conferences get automatic bids, then the 2 at-large bids go to the top two teams in the BCS that either didn't win a conference title or don't belong in any of the 6 conferences. Also, eliminate the exception for Notre Dame: finish in the top 2, or you're not in the tourney. There's plenty of time in the month of December to have an 8 team tournament.






"I don't care what people think. People are stupid." -- Charles Barkley

Cowboys 3-6-0. Can't lose on a bye week, thank goodness.

Spurs 5-2. Still looks good, brain fart vs. Portland aside.

Yao Ming Watch - Tracking Yao's efforts to elevate his game to Shawn Bradley's level. Good luck Yao!
(through 5 games)

PPG: Bradley 9.6, Yao 2.6
RPG: Bradley 9.3, Yao 3.6
BPG: Bradley 2.7, Yao 0.3
MPG: Bradley 26.7, Yao 14.0
Dutchie
Kishke
Moderator








Since: 29.1.02
From: PA

Since last post: 14 days
Last activity: 45 min.
#16 Posted on
Also, as of right now, Miami has beaten two top 15 teams. As it stands right now, Notre Dame has to make up close to 11 points to overtake Miami. The only way I could see that happening would be for Miami to lose. If Miami runs the table, ND has *no* shot to finish above of them (and rightly so).

I'm not saying Notre Dame will absolutely, positively, get-to-Vegas-and-put-money-on-it-now, jump Miami in the BCS standings in two weeks, I'm saying it's mathematically possible because of the way the BCS is set up.
ND and Miami have both beaten FSU. They get the same number of quality points. ND has beaten Michigan, and Michigan is currently ranked higher than Miami's other Top 15 victory, Florida. ND makes up a few points there. Should they beat USC, they get QP's for that win, as well as another bump most likely for strength of schedule, as USC has the toughest schedule, according to the BCS. I know margin of victory has nothing to do with how the BCS system ranks, but it still has a hell of a lot to do with how the AP writers and ESPN/Coaches rank teams. If Notre Dame beats USC by a touchdown or more, they move up in both of those rankings. The average of those two polls is taken into account for the BCS system. Probably won't happen, but it's still a flaw of the BCS, just like the non-Big 12 champion getting into the title game...

A playoff system would be awesome, except take away the ND contingency and give them an ultimatum. Join the Big East for all sports or sit out in December. That should go for all independents. There's also no way that an 8 team tourney would fly either, with the number of bowls that would be put out of commission. I mean, I know I can't survive without my December 12th Tuna Bowl sponsored by Joe's Fish Shack. Unfortunately, until there's a way to resolve the money issues surrounding the I-A postseason, we're stuck with this.

By the way, including the 6 conference champions in a playoff system sounds great, but I'm guessing that y'all mean "Big Ten, Pac 10, SEC, ACC, Big East, Big 12" by your 6 - aren't the WAC, Conference USA, Mountain West, and MAC still included in the I-A scheme of things? Throw those guys in, with the second place teams in every "Big 6" [for Big 12 and SEC, you could just take the champ of each division of the conferences, but that takes away alot of fun] conference, and you could have yourself a nice 16 team, 5-week tourney that includes most of the "major" bowls. Nice in theory, but I'm sure there's a bunch of 'student-athlete' rules I just broke there...



"This is not Nam. This is bowling. There are rules."
TheCow
Landjager








Since: 3.1.02
From: Knoxville, TN

Since last post: 2505 days
Last activity: 2505 days
AIM:  
Y!:
#17 Posted on
Steg, I like your idea of a playoff - it's got most teams handled, but not many people on the college ranks (if any) are going to go for a team playing potentially 18 games (12 regular, plus conference championship, then the 5 games).

Moving back to your ND arguement, I don't think ND can jump Miami. You're forgetting one important component of the BCS: Computer Ranking.

Let's say, for example, that all the teams ranked above ND (except for Ohio State and Miami) lose next week, and keep losing 'til ND gets to #3. The FSU quality win points cancel, if there's any difference between Michigan and Florida in terms of quality wins, it's small - .1 or .2 (I think - feel free to correct me). However, this still means Miami has 2 points fewer than ND due to poll average (1 for Miami to 3 for ND).

Strength of schedule wouldn't give a huge boost to ND. That leaves it up to the computer rankings, basically. You're going to have a hard time convincing me that Notre Dame is going to make up those remaining points in rankings when they have one loss, as opposed to an undefeated Miami.







Which Neglected Mario Character Are You?

Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
Moderator








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 7 days
Last activity: 23 hours
#18 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05

    Originally posted by TheCow
    Steg, I like your idea of a playoff - it's got most teams handled, but not many people on the college ranks (if any) are going to go for a team playing potentially 18 games (12 regular, plus conference championship, then the 5 games).

    Moving back to your ND arguement, I don't think ND can jump Miami. You're forgetting one important component of the BCS: Computer Ranking.

    Let's say, for example, that all the teams ranked above ND (except for Ohio State and Miami) lose next week, and keep losing 'til ND gets to #3. The FSU quality win points cancel, if there's any difference between Michigan and Florida in terms of quality wins, it's small - .1 or .2 (I think - feel free to correct me). However, this still means Miami has 2 points fewer than ND due to poll average (1 for Miami to 3 for ND).

    Strength of schedule wouldn't give a huge boost to ND. That leaves it up to the computer rankings, basically. You're going to have a hard time convincing me that Notre Dame is going to make up those remaining points in rankings when they have one loss, as opposed to an undefeated Miami.



also some of the computer rankers give bonuses to teams based on how well their conference does in non conference games. independant teams lose out out on that plus (or minus)

Anderson-Hester leaps to mind, and according to their index, the Pac-10 has the best non-conference SOS at 29-10 (.465) and the Sun Belt is last at 10-31 (.501) the Big East is in the middle at 26-13 (.461)



Wrestling has been rhyming with ass. I miss shows and it makes me all shades of ambivalence. WWE is starting to suck again. The crops?
Jeezum Spice! Someone stole my crops. What in the ham fat is going on. That's just poo-doo!
That's just my 2.4856 Yen.
R-D-Z
TheCow
Landjager








Since: 3.1.02
From: Knoxville, TN

Since last post: 2505 days
Last activity: 2505 days
AIM:  
Y!:
#19 Posted on
What now? If the Pac-10 has the best non-conference SOS, and that's .465, why is the Big East a .461 if they're in the middle?

Maybe it's because I don't normally keep track of computer rankings - which one's which and so forth, but that confused me entirely.

Either way, I did get your general point.







Which Neglected Mario Character Are You?

Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
Moderator








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 7 days
Last activity: 23 hours
#20 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05

    Originally posted by TheCow
    What now? If the Pac-10 has the best non-conference SOS, and that's .465, why is the Big East a .461 if they're in the middle?

    Maybe it's because I don't normally keep track of computer rankings - which one's which and so forth, but that confused me entirely.

    Either way, I did get your general point.




ya, it's odd
the SOS is 2/3 your winning % and 1/3 your opp winning %...so i guess he's using the conf's non-conf winning % and their opp's conf's non-conf winning %






Wrestling has been rhyming with ass. I miss shows and it makes me all shades of ambivalence. WWE is starting to suck again. The crops?
Jeezum Spice! Someone stole my crops. What in the ham fat is going on. That's just poo-doo!
That's just my 2.4856 Yen.
R-D-Z
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I forget what I was watching or even if it is the same kid (it has to be though) but I saw video of him and it was quite impressive. He runs very well on his hands and he gets through the line quick. I saw him make a few tackles and was impressed.
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