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The W - Basketball - As the ping-pong balls bounce... it's Lottery Time.
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Kawshen
Liverwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: Bronx, NY

Since last post: 1993 days
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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.38
Time for the probabilities in the Greg Oden/Kevin Durant sweepstakes....

Memphis: 46.5% chance of pick #1 or #2
Boston: 38.7%
Milwaukee: 31.33%
Atlanta: 24.49%
Seattle: 18.45%
Portland: 11.33%
Minnesota: 11.33%
Charlotte: 4.13%
New York Chicago: 4.13%
Sacramento: 3.92%
Indiana: 1.75%
Philadelphia: 1.53%
New Orleans: 1.3%
LA Clippers: 1.09%



(edited by Kawshen on 22.5.07 1008)


The preceding post was brought to you by the letter K and the number 22.
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DJ FrostyFreeze
Knackwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: Hawthorne, CA

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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.85

    Originally posted by Kawshen
    New York Chicago: 4.13%
That must've hurt. Sorry about that.



CLICK OR DIE
JayJayDean
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: Seattle, WA

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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.40
    Originally posted by Kawshen
    Seattle: 18.45%


My fingers and toes are crossed.



Holy fuck shit motherfucker shit. Read comics. Fuck shit shit fuck shit I sold out when I did my job. Fuck fuck fuck shit fuck. Sorry had to do it....

*snip*

Revenge of the Sith = one thumb up from me. Fuck shit. I want to tittie fuck your ass.
-- The Guinness. to Cerebus
dunkndollaz
Banger
Back to Back Survivor








Since: 3.1.02
From: Northern NJ

Since last post: 6 days
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#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.21
    Originally posted by DJ FrostyFreeze
      Originally posted by Kawshen
      New York Chicago: 4.13%
    That must've hurt. Sorry about that.

As a knicks fan, I just know that one of these 19 balls is going to wind up in the 1, 2 or 3 spot. Damn you Zeke



I'm Blind Jimmy Winthrop, Blues singer for the Rich.
Reverend J Shaft
Liverwurst








Since: 25.6.03
From: Home of The Big House

Since last post: 48 days
Last activity: 3 hours
#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.92
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
      Originally posted by Kawshen
      Seattle: 18.45%


    My fingers and toes are crossed.


Boston: 38.7%

So are mine... but probably for the opposite outcome.

(And mostly thanks to people like Bill Simmons, who wrote this HI-larious piece, explaining why his beloved Celtics DESERVE the 1st or 2nd pick. Totally unbiased, of course.)



(edited by Reverend J Shaft on 22.5.07 1344)
Mr. Boffo
Scrapple








Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 485 days
Last activity: 446 days
#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.12
I could be the only one who cares about the mathematics involved, but it's not making sense to me.

Memphis has a 250/1000 chance of being the #1 pick. Boston has a 199/1000 chance. Let's say Boston gets it. Doesn't that mean that Memphis has a 250/801 chance (because they redraw if Boston gets picked again) of being #2?

Basically, it seems to me that if a team doesn't get picked, their odds of getting the next pick should increase (because that's one less team involved). But on wikipedia ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery ) Memphis' odds of getting the 2nd pick are less (which matches the 46.5% Kawshen gives).
Reverend J Shaft
Liverwurst








Since: 25.6.03
From: Home of The Big House

Since last post: 48 days
Last activity: 3 hours
#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.92
(deleted by Reverend J Shaft on 22.5.07 1615)
Guru Zim
SQL Dejection
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Since: 9.12.01
From: Bay City, OR

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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.81
OK, there is a problem here:

Do you want to know the probability of something happening (which is determined in advance) or do you want to know the chance that, Knowing Teams A, B, C, and D are already picked - what are the odds that my team comes up next?

Most people actually don't want to know the probability of a team getting a spot - they want to know the odds at each iteration of the pick.

If you want to know the latter, you take out the total number of balls for the teams that have already gotten a choice. So if it is pick #3 and #1 had 200 balls and #2 had 199, then you would look at your team's # of balls / (total balls - 399). That isn't the same as the probability that they would get the #3 pick if you tried to figure it out before the event started.




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edoug
Summer sausage








Since: 13.2.04
From: Maine

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 10 hours
#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.52
    Originally posted by Reverend J Shaft
      Originally posted by JayJayDean
        Originally posted by Kawshen
        Seattle: 18.45%


      My fingers and toes are crossed.


    Boston: 38.7%

    So are mine... but probably for the opposite outcome.

    (And mostly thanks to people like Bill Simmons, who wrote this HI-larious piece, explaining why his beloved Celtics DESERVE the 1st or 2nd pick. Totally unbiased, of course.)



    (edited by Reverend J Shaft on 22.5.07 1344)


Imagine if the Celtics don't get a top 2 pick and they fire Rivers. It may not be the most sporting or ethical thing to do but he won too many losable games. Especially to the Spurs



JayJayDean
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: Seattle, WA

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Y!:
#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.40
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
      Originally posted by Kawshen
      Seattle: 18.45%


    My fingers and toes are crossed.


FUCK YEAH!!!!!!!



Holy fuck shit motherfucker shit. Read comics. Fuck shit shit fuck shit I sold out when I did my job. Fuck fuck fuck shit fuck. Sorry had to do it....

*snip*

Revenge of the Sith = one thumb up from me. Fuck shit. I want to tittie fuck your ass.
-- The Guinness. to Cerebus
Kawshen
Liverwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: Bronx, NY

Since last post: 1993 days
Last activity: 253 days
AIM:  
#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.38
Results:

1. Portland
2. Seattle
3. Atlanta
4. Memphis
5. Boston
6. Milwaukee
7. Minnesota
8. Charlotte
9. Chicago (via New York) whew...
10. Sacramento
11. Atlanta (via Indiana)
12. Philadelphia
13. New Orleans
14. LA Clippers



The preceding post was brought to you by the letter K and the number 22.
kedzie.net

ekedolphin
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Since: 12.1.02
From: Indianapolis, IN; now residing in Suffolk, VA

Since last post: 160 days
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#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.29
The Celtics get their hearts broken again...



"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."
--Inigo Montoya, The Princess Bride 8/28/04; 12/16/05)

Fan of the Indianapolis Colts-- Super Bowl XLI Champions

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odessasteps
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: MD, USA

Since last post: 162 days
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#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.72
    Originally posted by ekedolphin
    The Celtics get their hearts broken again...


Simmons' pre-lottery column was pretty funny.

I can imagine what tomorrow's will be like.



Mark Coale
Odessa Steps Magazine
The Affirmation, Baby Blog
It's False
Scrapple








Since: 20.6.02
From: I am the Tag Team Champions!

Since last post: 2 days
Last activity: 23 min.
#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.73
If I'm Seattle, I'm hoping Portland goes with Kevin Durant. A Ray Lewis/Greg Oden combo could be huge!

And so much for the Grizz and Celtics. Now that they don't have Durant or Oden to fall back on, it'll be up to the GM's to keep them afloat. Maybe this is the year that Pau Gasol gets dealt.




The Wisdom of Homsar:
Let's sing a song of Pennzoil!
JayJayDean
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: Seattle, WA

Since last post: 2 days
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Y!:
#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.40
    Originally posted by It's False
    If I'm Seattle, I'm hoping Portland goes with Kevin Durant. A Ray Lewis/Greg Oden combo could be huge!


I think not. The Sonics can draft Durant and do a sign-and-trade for Rashard, and maybe get a couple of better pieces back. Plus, Durant will be cheaper than Rashard so that should help the cap situation, which isn't *bad* but it's not really that great, either.

I predict Simmons will live here within nine months.



Holy fuck shit motherfucker shit. Read comics. Fuck shit shit fuck shit I sold out when I did my job. Fuck fuck fuck shit fuck. Sorry had to do it....

*snip*

Revenge of the Sith = one thumb up from me. Fuck shit. I want to tittie fuck your ass.
-- The Guinness. to Cerebus
DrewDewce
Bratwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Derby City

Since last post: 52 days
Last activity: 1 day
Y!:
#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.36
So, will Portland get killed for taking the big guy *this* time? (Bowie/Jordan v. Oden/Durant)

Of course not, but I'm just glad my Sonics snagged the 2nd pick and will be happy with whomever we draft. Not quite the sneak-in that it was when we got Gary Payton back in '90 despite being the "best" of the lottery teams, but good news for a franchise that could definitely use some.

Keep 'em in Seattle!!!!!!!! Let's go Seattle Supersonics!!!!!!!



It is a good rule in life never to apologize. The right sort of people do not want apologies, and the wrong sort take a mean advantage of them.
P. G. Wodehouse (1881 - 1975), The Man Upstairs (1914)
redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 513 days
Last activity: 513 days
#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.78
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
      Originally posted by It's False
      If I'm Seattle, I'm hoping Portland goes with Kevin Durant. A Ray Lewis/Greg Oden combo could be huge!


    I think not. The Sonics can draft Durant and do a sign-and-trade for Rashard, and maybe get a couple of better pieces back. Plus, Durant will be cheaper than Rashard so that should help the cap situation, which isn't *bad* but it's not really that great, either.

    I predict Simmons will live here within nine months.





Don't you mean Simmons will be living in Oklahoma City in 9 months? Sorry. Time to join hands with Pieman as we walk into the chopper blades.
As for the Bowie comparison: No one has ever killed Houston for taking the big man Olajuwon over Jordan and they actually had a 7'4" center already in place.

(edited by redsoxnation on 22.5.07 2236)


'Ric Flair wishes he was Paul Roma.' Congratulations Paul on winning the Idiotic Comment of the Decade Award.
StingArmy
Andouille








Since: 3.5.03
From: Georgia bred, you can tell by my Hawk jersey

Since last post: 52 days
Last activity: 26 days
#18 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.98
As a longtime Hawks fan, watching this lottery was like watching a Game 7 for me. I was going ballistic with every pick knowing what was at stake (i.e., Top 3 Or Bust). I totally forgot about getting Indiana's pick, which made tonight just that much sweeter. Obviously I would have preferred getting the #1 or #2, but not even Billy Knight could fuck up a #3. We need a PG badly, and that's been the case for 5+ years. His only choices are getting Mike Conley or duping Portland into trading their #1 for our #3 and #11. If we end up with Corey Brewer or Acie Law, somebody's gonna have to die.

Speaking of Portland, holy shit that team is going to be good. My boy Jarrett Jack is going to be rewarded handsomely, QBing what could be the league's #1 frontcourt next season. Assists + 3? Sounds about right.

- StingArmy
CajunMan
Boudin blanc
No longer registered








Since: 2.1.02
From: Give me a Title shot!

Since last post: 1133 days
Last activity: 270 days
#19 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.37
Watching Rivers and Ainge reaction was priceless. I wonder if they are worried about their jobs yet.



I'm CajunMan and I approve this message.
Quezzy
Knackwurst








Since: 6.1.02
From: Pittsburgh, PA

Since last post: 37 min.
Last activity: 37 min.
#20 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.51
I understand that Oden and Durant are the prizes of this draft but if the Hawks do go with a point guard and get Conley with the third pick then that means the Grizzlies or Hawks get Al Horford, that's still pretty damn good. Horford is a beast, will be a starter his whole career and is probably more ready mentally than Oden and more ready physically than Durant. Really the first 10 picks could all be really good players. I understand Oden and Durant are supposed to be franchise players but missing out on them isn't the end of the world.



Lance's Response:

THAT IS AWESOME!
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