I think strikeouts are growing much less concerning to observers. I mean, obviously you don't WANT a guy to make outs at all, but the idea that "guys who make contact are better than guys who strike out" is being replaced by looking at the results of said contact.
That said, a career 900 OPS for a guy with no other skills is probably not enough, even if maintained for a while, to get him in the hall of fame. He would need to put up a stretch of some truly dominant, 1.000+ OPS years I think to get HOF consideration.
Spf already took the best argument with the only above average OPS despite numerous walks point. But to add, he will never reach 600 doubles and probably won't reach 2200 hits given just how many walks he does take. Factor in his body size as well, he probably will not make it to 40 still playing at the b+ level he does now.
Also take how watered down 500 home runs is right now and add 15-20 years. Even now, despite his reputation of raining home runs, he is only a one time allstar and has never even sniffed an MVP race. Zero chance he ever makes the hall of fame.
You wanted the best, you got... Out of Context Quote of the Week: FROM THE VAULTS.
"I just want the ability to crush a man's neck with my thighs." (JST)
I'd love it, but don't see it happening. Even in the post-steroidal context, big HR numbers with a very good OPS alone isn't going to cut it. Should he go off for a few years and hit for average well enough to bring the OPS up, maybe, but doubt it.
If anything what kills his OPS is that he hits for very few doubles for a power hitter. If he could hit another 10-12 doubles per year, that might bring his numbers up enough to make him a reasonable candidate. But 25 doubles a year isn't going to do it.
Dunn has always struck me as a Dave Kingman type - all or nothing at the bat (albeit with better plate discipline). He also reminds me of Kong in the field. If Dunn is to play another 10 seasons, I don't see it happening without much of that time spent as a DH, which isn't going to help his case.
Well, Dunn strikes me as a Mark McGwire type, where he was a home run hitter and not much else. Yeah, they produced some runs with their power, but their lack of decent batting averages, hits other than 4-baggers, and missing most of the other 5 tools IMO (speed & defense among others) is too much to overcome to merit such high regard. Even without the steriod issue hanging over his head, I'm not convinced McGwire should be in the HOF. And I think he would be thought of before Dunn either way.
For me, a major qualifacation for the HOF would be to have been dominant in many different facets. For instance, to use someone who has been in the majors the same time as Dunn, Albert Pujols is obiviously far more likely to get in. In fact, if he only played next year (his 10th) and then ended his career at the drop of a hat, he still would get in without a second thought, IMO. He has the awards (2 MVPs going to most likely be 3, 8 all-star apperances, 4 silver sluggers), he has the average season stats (43/129/.334 over 162 avg. games), and he has the winning track record for his teams (6 postseason apperances including this year, 2 ws apperances & 1 ws win). What does Dunn have? 0 MVPs, 1 AS, 0 SS, 0 playoff experience, and decent avg. numbers but lesser to Pujols (40/98/.249).
In short, Dunn is good in one area. Pujols rules in plenty of others. Albert gets the nod, but not Adam, not unless he either slams it up to 50+ HRs a year for a couple of years or his teams become winning teams that contend for titles. I don't see either one of those options happening.
You should probably try to compare Dunn to a more fringe candidate, not someone who's going to be considered (if not already) one of the five greatest hitters who ever lived. Otherwise you're stepping into Joe Morgan territory here.
"Wade Boggs hit lead off most of his career, had 200 hits a lot, high batting average, high OBP, but couldn’t run. His OBP was higher than Rickey Henderson’s but who would you rather have leading off?"
Agreed...Oliver has been the designated AW CRAP guy in the rotation this year. Hopefully he can help them out more in middle relief, but it's not like he can go to the bullpen and then miraculously learn how to get guys out.