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The 7 - Random - Your Oscar Nomination Predictions
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Freeway
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#1 Posted on 12.1.04 1654.25
Reposted on: 12.1.11 1654.40
The nominations for the 76th annual Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences Awards, known as the Oscars, will be announced January 27th...but for the time being, let's play the guessing game!

BEST PICTURE:
-The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
-Mystic River
-Lost In Translation
-Cold Mountain
-The Last Samurai
ALTERNATES: Seabiscuit or In America
WHY: Return of the King, Mystic & LoT have gotten nothing but good reviews. It's a three horse race between Cold Mountain, the Samurai & Seabiscuit for the final two spots, and Cold Mountain has the Miramax machine behind it...and Seabiscuit is likely to get awarded in only one of the top two categories (Picture or Director), so Director is probably what it'll get.

BEST DIRECTOR:
-Peter Jackson [Return of the King]
-Sofia Coppola [Lost In Translation]
-Clint Eastwood [Mystic River]
-Peter Weir [Master & Commander]
-Gary Ross [Seabiscuit]
ALTERNATE: Anthony Minghella [Cold Mountain]
WHY: The three locks, plus Weir (while M&C wasn't excellent, the direction was superb) and Ross, since everyone (and me) seems to like Seabiscuit now. Minghella cold sneak in via Miramax's campaign.

BEST ACTOR:
-Sean Penn [Mystic River]
-Bill Murray [Lost In Translation]
-Ben Kingsley [House of Sand & Fog]
-Tom Cruise [The Last Samurai]
-Johnny Depp [Pirates of the Carribean]
ALTERNATES: Jude Law [Cold Mountain] & Russell Crowe [Master & Commander]
WHY: SAG nominations basically cement Depp, Penn, Murray & Kingsley. It's between Law, Crowe & Cruise for the final spot, as all of them have Golden Globe noms...but no SAG nomination.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
-Alec Baldwin [The Cooler]
-Tim Robbins [Mystic River]
-Peter Sarsgaard [Shattered Glass]
-Ken Watanabe [The Last Samurai]
-Benicio Del Toro [21 Grams]
WHY: Baldwin, Robbins, Watanabe & del Toro are practically locks. Sarsgaard is probable, but no SAG nom means somebody from Seabiscuit (Chris Cooper, William H. Macy or Jeff Bridges) could sneak in.

BEST ACTRESS:
-Charlize Theron [Monster]
-Naomi Watts [21 Grams]
-Diane Keaton [Something's Gotta Give]
-Nicole Kidman [Cold Mountain]
-Evan Rachel Wood [Thirteen]
WHY: Theron, Keaton, Watts & Kidman are locks. Wood is probable, especially since she got nods from the Golden Globes & SAG...and she's only a teenager!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
-Renee Zellweger [Cold Mountain]
-Scarlett Johansson [Lost In Translation]
-Shohreh Ashdashloo [House of Sand & Fog]
-Holly Hunter [Thirteen]
-Maria Bello [The Cooler]
ALTERNATES: Keisha Castle-Hughes [Whale Rider] & Patricia Clarkson [Pieces of April]
WHY: Everyone loves Lost in Translation, so Pieces of April's Patricia Clarkson gets bumped...for now. SAG nom for Clarkson means the race is uber-tight.

BEST SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL):
-Sofia Coppola [Lost In Translation]
-Jim, Naomi & Kirsten Sheridan [In America]
-John Logan, Edward Zwick & Marshall Herskovitz [Last Samurai]
-Steve Knight [Dirty Pretty Things]
-Denys Arcand [The Barbarian Invasions]

BEST SCREENPLAY (ADAPTED):
-Peter Jackson, Phillipa Boyens & Fran Walsh [Return of the King]
-Brian Hedgeland [Mystic River]
-Anthony Minghella [Cold Mountain]
-Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini [American Splendor]
-Peter Weir & John Collee [Master & Commander]

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
-Finding Nemo
-The Triplets of Belleville
-Brother Bear

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
-Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
-Seabiscuit
-Finding Nemo
-Mystic River
-Master & Commander

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
-Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
-Seabiscuit
-Master & Commander
-Last Samurai
-Cold Mountain

BEST ART DIRECTION:
-Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
-Seabiscuit
-Cold Mountain
-Big Fish
-Pirates of the Carribean

BEST FILM EDITING:
-Last Samurai
-Seabiscuit
-Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
-Mystic River
-Cold Mountain

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
-Mystic River
-Cold Mountain
-Lost In Translation
-Finding Nemo
-Lord of the Rings: Return of the King

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
-"Into the West" [Return of the King]
-"Man of the Hour" [Big Fish]
-"School of Rock" [School of Rock]
-'Time Enough for Tears" [In America]
-"You Will Be My True Love" [Cold Mountain]

BEST SOUND EDITING:
-Kill Bill Vol. 1
-Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
-Seabiscuit

BEST SOUND MIXING
-Kill Bill Vol. 1
-Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
-Master & Commander
-Last Samurai
-Pirates of the Carribean

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
-Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
-Master & Commander: Far Side of the World
-The Hulk

BEST MAKE-UP:
-Monster
-Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
-Cold Mountain

Other categories I didn't guess for because I have no idea: Documentary Feature & Short, Animated Short & Foreign Language Film

SO, the FILM BY FILM TALLY:
13 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
9 - Cold Mountain
8 - Mystic River
7 - Seabiscuit & The Last Samurai
6 - Lost In Translation & Master & Commander: The Far Side of the World
3 - Pirates of the Carribean: The Curse of the Black Pearl & Finding Nemo
2 - House of Sand & Fog, Kill Bill Vol. 1, The Cooler, 21 Grams, Monster, Big Fish & In America
1 - Shattered Glass, The Hulk, Something's Gotta Give, Veronica Guerin, School of Rock, Thirteen, Dirty Pretty Things, The Barbarian Invasions, American Splendor, The Triplets of Belleville & Brother Bear
(Note: The Barbarian Invasions is Canada's official entry into the Best Foreign Film category, and may also be nominated there)

(edited by Freeway420 on 15.1.04 1446)
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Brian P. Dermody
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#2 Posted on 12.1.04 1726.19
Reposted on: 12.1.11 1726.37
I just hope nobody forgets about "My Baby's Daddy" this time next year.
The King of Keith
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#3 Posted on 12.1.04 1751.57
Reposted on: 12.1.11 1752.03
I might go with Sean Astin getting a nod for best supporting actor. New Line is promoting him pretty hard.
Tenken347
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#4 Posted on 12.1.04 1755.12
Reposted on: 12.1.11 1755.19
I haven't seen Cold Mountain myself, but with all the media attention it's getting I think it's a lock for a best picture nomination.
Retrovertigo
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#5 Posted on 12.1.04 1834.50
Reposted on: 12.1.11 1835.46
(This assumes that Big Fish will be eligible for 2003 Oscars.)

Awards shows are mostly worthless anyway, but if Albert Finney doesn't even get nominated for his amazing work in Big Fish, then the Oscars are officially a complete waste of time. Since I saw a sneak preview before New Year's, I have to call Big Fish the best film of the year, but if it's considered a 2004 film, there damn well better be a whole bunch of nominations for it in January of 2005.
Freeway
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#6 Posted on 12.1.04 1928.23
Reposted on: 12.1.11 1929.01
    Originally posted by Retrovertigo
    (This assumes that Big Fish will be eligible for 2003 Oscars.)

    Awards shows are mostly worthless anyway, but if Albert Finney doesn't even get nominated for his amazing work in Big Fish, then the Oscars are officially a complete waste of time. Since I saw a sneak preview before New Year's, I have to call Big Fish the best film of the year, but if it's considered a 2004 film, there damn well better be a whole bunch of nominations for it in January of 2005.


Big Fish opened in Los Angeles County in December 2003, so it's eligible for the 2003 Academy Awards. I also really enjoyed Finney's work (as well as Ewan McGregor's), but the fact remains that neither of them have won Critics Awards or Guild Awards...yet. The Screen Actors Guild Awards next week will basically spell out the acting nominations clear as daylight. But as of yet, Finney, McGregor & Sean Astin haven't really gotten much critical acclaim...YET.
Big Bad
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#7 Posted on 12.1.04 1930.59
Reposted on: 12.1.11 1931.33
I'll just stick to the big six.

Picture
Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
Mystic River
Cold Mountain
Seabiscuit
Lost in Translation

Director
Peter Jackson
Sofia Coppola
Clint Eastwood
Anthony Minghella
Peter Weir

Actor
Sean Penn
Bill Murray
Ben Kingsley
Russell Crowe
Jude Law (or Johnny Depp)

Actress
Diane Keaton
Charlize Theron
Scarlett Johansson
Naomi Watts
Nicole Kidman

Supporting Actor
Albert Finney
Tim Robbins
Ken Watanabe
Sean Astin
Alec Baldwin

Supporting Actress
Renee Zellweger
Holly Hunter
Marcia Gay Harden
Shohreh Aghdashloo
Patricia Clarkson

Winners: LOTR, Jackson, Penn, Theron, Finney or Robbins and Zellweger
evilwaldo
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#8 Posted on 12.1.04 2217.44
Reposted on: 12.1.11 2217.49
    Originally posted by Retrovertigo
    (This assumes that Big Fish will be eligible for 2003 Oscars.)

    Awards shows are mostly worthless anyway, but if Albert Finney doesn't even get nominated for his amazing work in Big Fish, then the Oscars are officially a complete waste of time. Since I saw a sneak preview before New Year's, I have to call Big Fish the best film of the year, but if it's considered a 2004 film, there damn well better be a whole bunch of nominations for it in January of 2005.


Big Fish was easily eligible. It opened in New York more than a month ago.

Peter The Hegemon
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#9 Posted on 13.1.04 0203.27
Reposted on: 13.1.11 0204.21
I think Scarlett Johansson will be submitted for Best Actress, not Best Supporting Actress, for Lost In Translation.

Also, unless there's been a rule change, I think LOTR will not be eligible in the makeup category because of the use of digital effects. Several films were disqualified on that basis last year.
The Vile1
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#10 Posted on 13.1.04 1527.55
Reposted on: 13.1.11 1529.01
Someone please tell me why Cowboy Bebop isn't nominated for best animated feature? I know there was some kind of technicality bullshit but does anyone know for sure?
oldschoolhero
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#11 Posted on 13.1.04 1621.02
Reposted on: 13.1.11 1621.28
"I think Scarlett Johansson will be submitted for Best Actress, not Best Supporting Actress, for Lost In Translation."

The studio's pushing for a supporting nod, apparently. Which is fair enough, seeing as she would have no chance of winning the lead category due to Oscar politics and all that BS.

Good choices, Freeway-but I think you've overlooked Cold MOuntain waaaay too much in the top categories. Aside from the fact that it's a really well-made movie, it's Big Harv Weinstein's Miramax Oscar Whore. Do you really think he wouldn't find a way of influencing Academy members into ensuring some big-time nominations?

Also, I'm really not feeling the love for Seabiscuit. It was really poorly paced, there was no serious conflict there ("Hey! I'm blind in one eye!" "Eh, who cares?" Pfft), and the direction was, to put it kindly, obvious. It wasn't, like, BAD or anything, but it never got oout of the "middling" range.

Okay, here we are:

Best Picture
LotR: RotK
Cold Mountain
Mystic River
The Last Samurai
Lost In Translation

Best Director
Peter Jackson-LotR:RotK
Anthony Minghella-Cold Mountain
Clint Eastwood-Mystic River
Peter Weir-Master And Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Sofia Coppola-Lost In Translation

Best Actor
Bill Murray-Lost in Translation
Sean Penn-Mystic River
Tom Cruise-The Last Samurai (although could be snubbed in favour of Crowe)
Ben Kingsley-House Of Sand And Fog
Johnny Depp-Pirates Of The Caribbean: The Curse Of The Black Pearl

Best Actress
Diane Keaton-Something's Gotta Give
Nicole Kidman-Cold Mountain
Charlize Theron-Monster
Jennifer Connelly-House Of Sand And Fog
Naomi Watts-21 Grams

Best Supporting Actor
Albert Finney-Big Fish
Paul Bettany-Master And Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Ken Wanatabe-The Last Samurai
Alec Baldwin-The Cooler
Tim Robbins-Mystic River

Best Supporting Actress
Scarlett Johanssen-Lost In Translation
Renee Zellweger-Cold Mountain
Marcia Gay Harden-Mystic River
Maria Bello-The Cooler
Shohreh Aghdashloo-House Of Sand And Fog

And your winners are: Rings, Jackson, Cruise/Crowe (Penn loses due to his politics, Murray & Depp due to being comedy performers, Kingsley due to winning before-IT'S IN REVELATIONS, PEOPLE), Theron (voila-instacred), Wanatabe (at least, he should do), Zellweger (someone shut the Oscar Bitch UP).


odessasteps
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#12 Posted on 13.1.04 1813.11
Reposted on: 13.1.11 1815.47
    Originally posted by The Vile1
    Someone please tell me why Cowboy Bebop isn't nominated for best animated feature? I know there was some kind of technicality bullshit but does anyone know for sure?


It was made in 2001.

And was actually released in the US in 2002.

http://us.imdb.com/title/ tt0275277/releaseinfo
It's False
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#13 Posted on 14.1.04 1438.13
Reposted on: 14.1.11 1439.05
I have a very bad feeling that Johnny Depp will get snubbed in favor of Russell Crowe, which would be a huge travesty.

Peter Jackson deserves his Oscar this time around. Third time's the charm for Lord of the Rings, as it goes up against a weak crop of movies and actually shows how a trilogy SHOULD be concluded (Matrix, I'm looking at YOU!). Easily my pick for Best Picture.
Freeway
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#14 Posted on 14.1.04 1503.54
Reposted on: 14.1.11 1505.35
OldSchoolHero, the Academy is insane when it comes to cycles. Almost Famous was a brutally fantastic film, but got snubbed due to Cameron Crowe's Jerry Maguire being a big winner a few years beforehand. The Academy is about politics and "fairness", and it's unlikely that a former Best Director winner like Anythony Minghella will get a lot of nominations since The English Patient was so recent. One could argue the same about Mystic River, but Unforgiven was 11 years ago.

Plus, Cold Mountain wasn't (in my opinion) as good as any of the five films I want to see nominated for Best Picture. It was great, but the others were even better.
oldschoolhero
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#15 Posted on 14.1.04 1514.37
Reposted on: 14.1.11 1514.37
Sorry, but I can't in good conscience call Seabiscuit better than Cold Mountain. On any level. And Minghella's recent win is cancelled out by the fact that he's an Oscar darling, which Cameron Crowe was not. He's British, he's arty, he's erudite, he's everything Oscar loves. Besides, both Spielberg and Soderbergh have proven in the past that close proximity means little-Christ, the 'Berg won two in five years and Soderbergh was nominated TWICE in one year! Plus, again I play the Miramax card. Weinstein got both Chocolat and The Cider House Rules up for major awards-you think he's going to have ANY problems with a film that's actually, y'know, GOOD? Care to bet against it? ;-)
Freeway
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#16 Posted on 14.1.04 1722.34
Reposted on: 14.1.11 1722.34
Hey...the Cider House Rules WAS good (or at least I thought so).

Still, after your film wins Best Picture, you're practically persona non grata to the Academy.
SINCE 1990:
1990: Kevin Costner's Dances With Wolves
1991: Jonathan Demme's The Silence of the Lambs
1992: Clint Eastwood's Unforgiven
1994: Robert Zemeckis' Forrest Gump
1995: Mel Gibson's Braveheart
1996: Minghella's The English Patient
1997: James Cameron's Titanic
1998: John Madden's Shakespeare In Love
1999: Sam Mendes' American Beauty
2000: Ridley Scott's Gladiator
2001: Ron Howard's A Beautiful Mind
2002: Rob Marshall's Chicago

The exception?
1993: Steven Speilberg's Schindler's List
Speilberg's been since nominated for Saving Private Ryan, but one could argue that it was one of the most seminal pieces of filmmaking in the decade, so the Academy would have to be friggin' BLIND to not nominate it. But heck, they gave the Oscar to Shakespeare In Love...so, maybe they ARE blind.
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#17 Posted on 14.1.04 1829.15
Reposted on: 14.1.11 1829.27
Freeway420, there is one problem with your theory. With few exceptions none of the winning directors followed up their wins with anything decent. Costner went on to make some of the worst films ever. Demme made "Philadelphia", but his direction was overshadowed by Hanks performance. Eastwood returned to making schlock until "Mystic River." Minghella did get a writing nomination for "The Talented Mr. Ripley" so I don't see how you could argue Oscar bias. Zemeckis has made good films, just not great films since "Forrest Gump". Gibson is just now returning to directing. Cameron hasn't. John Madden made "Captain Corelli's Mandolin" and I'm sure you know how well that was received. Ridley Scott made films taht while successful aren't the type of films to garner Oscar attention. Mendes next effort "Road to Perdition" came out amidst a strong Oscar crop and was overshadowed. Ron Howard missed with "The Missing" and Rob Marshall hasn't made a follow up yet.

I saw Cold Mountain and thought it was "eh" but it is Miramax's Oscar film and they will push it down the throats of the voters and I guarantee you it will be one of the five films nominated.

(edited by krakken2000 on 14.1.04 1630)
Freeway
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#18 Posted on 15.1.04 1538.00
Reposted on: 15.1.11 1538.23
And now, The SAG Nominations:

ACTOR: Bill Murray [Lost in Translation]; Ben Kingsley [House of Sand & Fog]; Peter Dinklage [The Station Agent]; Sean Penn [Mystic River] & Johnny Depp [Pirates of the Caribbean]
ACTRESS: Patricia Clarkson [The Station Agent], Diane Keaton [Something's Gotta Give], Charlize Theron [Monster], Naomi Watts [21 Grams] & Evan Rachel Wood [Thirteen]
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Alec Baldwin [The Cooler], Chris Cooper [Seabiscuit], Benicio del Toro [21 Grams], Tim Robbins [Mystic River] & Ken Watanabe [The Last Samurai]
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Maria Bello [The Cooler], Keisha Castle-Hughes [Whale Rider], Patricia Clarkson [Pieces of April], Holly Hunter [Thirteen] & Renee Zellweger [Cold Mountain]
ENSEMBLE: In America, Return of the King, Mystic River, Seabiscuit & The Station Agent

I adjusted my predictions accordingly, as others have constantly provided evidence that Cold Mountain will probably get a nod in either Picture or Director. Plus, acting choices adjusted, as the Acting members of the Academy vote for the actors.
Big Bad
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#19 Posted on 15.1.04 1701.55
Reposted on: 15.1.11 1702.44
Freeway, I still think you're shafting Albert Finney with your predictions. Despite his lack of a SAG nomination, he's still the only lock in the supporting category other than Robbins. I'd be surprised if Baldwin or Watanabe get snubbed, but I'd be SHOCKED if Finney didn't get a nom.


    And Minghella's recent win is cancelled out by the fact that he's an Oscar darling, which Cameron Crowe was not.


I find it hard to consider anyone who actually has an Oscar (Crowe won Best Screenplay in 2000) not an Oscar darling.
Freeway
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#20 Posted on 15.1.04 1919.19
Reposted on: 15.1.11 1919.29
Well, from what I understand, the various branches of the Academy vote specifically for their branches awards. Thus, the acting awards are decided by fellow actors. The only awards Finney has garned thus far has been a Golden Globe nomination.

To compare:
Finney: Globe nom.
Robbins: Boston ensemble win, Broadcast Critics win, Florida win, Online Critics nom, Southeast win,
Baldwin: Globe nom, Dallas win, Golden Satellite nom, National Board of Review win, Online Critics nom, SAG nom,
Sarsgaard: Globe nom, Independent Spirit nom, National Critics win, Online Critics win, San Fran. win, Toronto win
Watanabe: Globe nom, Golden Satellite nom, SAG nom
Del Toro: SAG nom, Golden Satellite nom, Venice Film Festival win
Chris Cooper: SAG nom

To be blunt, every award from every critics group of note has gone to somebody OTHER than Albert Finney. All Finney has is the support of the Hollywood Foreign Press. Finney did a splendid job in Big Fish. But Tim Robbins was spectacular in Mystic River & Ken Watanabe was the core of the Last Samurai, and they probably deserve the awards more than Finney does.
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