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26.7.07 0218
The 7 - Random - Weekend Box Office for new movies
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Torchslasher
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#1 Posted on 9.8.02 1408.16
Reposted on: 9.8.09 1411.15
Since I was so good at predicting the box office draw of Spiderman (I picked 50 and it was only more than twice that number), I thought I would come back with predictions for this weekend.

1. XXX- Reviews have been mediocore to awful (D from Entertainment Weakly), but enough teens will see this movie to give it number 1.

2. Signs- Word of mouth and decent reviews should help this movie have a decent sophmore frame.

3. Spy Kids 2- It's a sequel, so you know it will make tons of dough.

4. Blood Work- Older audiences will be split between this and Signs, but I think that Eastwood's movie will out-perform expectations.

My predictions:

XXX- 52 million
Signs- 35 million
Spy Kids 2- 28 million (for the weekend only, I'm not counting Wednesday and Thursday)
Blood Work- 16 million (a respectable number)

Any other predictions out there?
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The Psycho Pirate
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#2 Posted on 9.8.02 1424.01
Reposted on: 9.8.09 1429.06

Triple X - $49.9
SIgns - $29
Spy Kids - $19.3 (weekend only)
Bloodwork - $ 13.5
Freeway
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#3 Posted on 9.8.02 1556.05
Reposted on: 9.8.09 1559.11
It's simple math. For second week releases, take 30% off of the previous week's total, and for everything past that, cut the gross in half! The rest of the cash goes to XXX.

Last Week's Numbers (Courtesy boxofficemojo.com)
1. Signs $60.1M
2. Goldmember $31.1M
3. Master of Disguise $12.5
4. Run Tel Dat $7.3
5. Road to Perdition $6.6

This Week's Estimates
1. XXX $65M
2. Signs $30M
3. Spy Kids $20M
4. Goldmember $15M
4. Bloodwork $10M
XXX will make more than Signs becuase of more screens showing the movie. It's gonna have a Men In Black style opening where it has a HUGE first weekend, then gradually tapers off. Signs drops down, but not a lot because of the amount of people wanting an alternative to XXX. Powers has staying power...

(edited by Freeway420 on 9.8.02 1358)
tomvejada
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#4 Posted on 9.8.02 1725.16
Reposted on: 9.8.09 1729.09
1. XXX-$58 Mil

2. Signs-$39 Mil

3. Spy Kids 2-$34 Mil

4. Goldmember-$20 Mil

5. Blood Work-$17 Mil
Super Shane Spear
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#5 Posted on 9.8.02 1959.34
Reposted on: 9.8.09 2003.30
Signs - $25M
XXX - $23M
Spy Kids 2 - $19M (weekend)
Goldmember - $9M
Run Tel Dat - $6M
Net Hack Slasher
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#6 Posted on 10.8.02 1619.06
Reposted on: 10.8.09 1623.32
I think you guys (and most experts) are underestimating the popularity of Spy Kids and overestimating the staying power of signs.

Spy Kids 1 had a real good word of mouth and stayed in the top 4 for a month. I think a lot of kid liked the first one and will come out opening weekend for this. Opening on Wednesday will effect the number so that might give signs a chance.

I do not see signs having much staying power. I've heard some bad word of mouth on it and I don't know how many people will watch it twice or tell there friend "you have to watch this"

I see XXX and Spy kids fighting for first (XXX will probabley take it) while signs is in third
Mr Heel II
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#7 Posted on 10.8.02 1955.05
Reposted on: 10.8.09 1959.02

    Originally posted by Torchslasher
    XXX- Reviews have been mediocore to awful (D from Entertainment Weakly), but enough teens will see this movie to give it number 1
Ebert gave it 3 1/2 stars. Hardly bad.

Expect XXX to do a monster business, higher than anybody's expectations, with "Signs" impressive in second. "Spy Kids" has horrible trailers, but should still be third.
Teppan-Yaki
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#8 Posted on 11.8.02 1351.34
Reposted on: 11.8.09 1352.10
From Yahoo! Movies Weekend Estimates

The last two numbers are weeks released and amount of theatres released in.

1 - XXX SONY $46,000,000 $46,000,000 1 3374
2 1 Signs BV $30,000,000 $118,300,000 2 3310
3 - Spy Kids M'MAX $17,000,000 $25,329,000 1 3307
4 2 Austin Powers in Goldmember NL $13,075,000 $167,795,000 3 3508
5 - Blood Work WB $7,235,000 $7,235,000 1 2525
6 3 The Master of Disguise SONY $5,100,000 $23,800,000 2 2568
7 5 Road to Perdition D'WORKS $4,000,000 $84,100,000 5 2211
8 4 Martin Lawrence Live: Runteldat PARA $3,175,000 $13,185,000 2 774
9 9 My Big Fat Greek Wedding IFC FILMS $3,150,218 $45,080,882 17 723
10 6 Stuart Little 2 SONY $2,700,000 $53,000,000 4 2382
11 7 Men in Black II SONY $2,100,000 $186,500,000 6 2076


Congrats to Psycho Pirate to being *very* close... no Double Showcase Winner -- but you do receive a day's supply of Turtle! Turtle! Wax.


(edited by Teppan-Yaki on 11.8.02 1354)
Torchslasher
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#9 Posted on 12.8.02 1241.42
Reposted on: 12.8.09 1242.02
What a world we live in when an opening weekend of 46 million is considered a disappointing number. Box office expectations were too high for Vin and his movie, as evidenced by most of us prognosticators here(except for SSS). I'm glad that Signs continued to perform well, but I do feel for Eastwood after what looks like a good movie underperformed.
Mild Mannered Madman
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#10 Posted on 12.8.02 1254.58
Reposted on: 12.8.09 1259.02

    Originally posted by Torchslasher
    What a world we live in when an opening weekend of 46 million is considered a disappointing number. Box office expectations were too high for Vin and his movie, as evidenced by most of us prognosticators here(except for SSS). I'm glad that Signs continued to perform well, but I do feel for Eastwood after what looks like a good movie underperformed.


Eastwood's bailiwick isn't #1 films. His films usually do a slow burn while getting good acclaim.

spf
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#11 Posted on 12.8.02 1507.14
Reposted on: 12.8.09 1514.34
I just think it's great that "Greek Wedding" is going to end up doing over $50 million at the box office. Gives me hope that a small film that gets some promotional push can actually make money for people and hopefully bring about more of the same.
evilwaldo
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#12 Posted on 12.8.02 1543.18
Reposted on: 12.8.09 1552.21

    Originally posted by spf2119
    I just think it's great that "Greek Wedding" is going to end up doing over $50 million at the box office. Gives me hope that a small film that gets some promotional push can actually make money for people and hopefully bring about more of the same.


I agree.

Greek Wedding is my second favorite movie this year behind Signs.

The Psycho Pirate
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#13 Posted on 12.8.02 1546.00
Reposted on: 12.8.09 1553.11

Down here in the sunny climates of Va Beach, one theatre has been showing Greek Wedding for like 6 or 8 weeks. Which is all well and good, but it's the "mainstream" theatre that shows one indy film at a time. And I want them to be showing Full Frontal soon. :>
Super Shane Spear
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#14 Posted on 12.8.02 2019.37
Reposted on: 12.8.09 2021.56
I did pretty well, outside of XXX this week. I'm am surprised about the lack of new people to go see Runteldat, but I am NOT surprised about the somewhat lackluster fall for SK2.
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