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15.12.11 1932
The 7 - Basketball - As the ping-pong balls bounce... it's Lottery Time. Register and log in to post!
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Kawshen
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#1 Posted on 22.5.07 0908.32
Reposted on: 22.5.14 0909.01
Time for the probabilities in the Greg Oden/Kevin Durant sweepstakes....

Memphis: 46.5% chance of pick #1 or #2
Boston: 38.7%
Milwaukee: 31.33%
Atlanta: 24.49%
Seattle: 18.45%
Portland: 11.33%
Minnesota: 11.33%
Charlotte: 4.13%
New York Chicago: 4.13%
Sacramento: 3.92%
Indiana: 1.75%
Philadelphia: 1.53%
New Orleans: 1.3%
LA Clippers: 1.09%



(edited by Kawshen on 22.5.07 1008)
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DJ FrostyFreeze
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#2 Posted on 22.5.07 1003.08
Reposted on: 22.5.14 1003.49
    Originally posted by Kawshen
    New York Chicago: 4.13%
That must've hurt. Sorry about that.
JayJayDean
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#3 Posted on 22.5.07 1024.47
Reposted on: 22.5.14 1025.05
    Originally posted by Kawshen
    Seattle: 18.45%


My fingers and toes are crossed.
dunkndollaz
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#4 Posted on 22.5.07 1112.06
Reposted on: 22.5.14 1113.37
    Originally posted by DJ FrostyFreeze
      Originally posted by Kawshen
      New York Chicago: 4.13%
    That must've hurt. Sorry about that.

As a knicks fan, I just know that one of these 19 balls is going to wind up in the 1, 2 or 3 spot. Damn you Zeke
Reverend J Shaft
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#5 Posted on 22.5.07 1240.40
Reposted on: 22.5.14 1241.16
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
      Originally posted by Kawshen
      Seattle: 18.45%


    My fingers and toes are crossed.


Boston: 38.7%

So are mine... but probably for the opposite outcome.

(And mostly thanks to people like Bill Simmons, who wrote this HI-larious piece, explaining why his beloved Celtics DESERVE the 1st or 2nd pick. Totally unbiased, of course.)



(edited by Reverend J Shaft on 22.5.07 1344)
Mr. Boffo
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#6 Posted on 22.5.07 1313.25
Reposted on: 22.5.14 1315.14
I could be the only one who cares about the mathematics involved, but it's not making sense to me.

Memphis has a 250/1000 chance of being the #1 pick. Boston has a 199/1000 chance. Let's say Boston gets it. Doesn't that mean that Memphis has a 250/801 chance (because they redraw if Boston gets picked again) of being #2?

Basically, it seems to me that if a team doesn't get picked, their odds of getting the next pick should increase (because that's one less team involved). But on wikipedia ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery ) Memphis' odds of getting the 2nd pick are less (which matches the 46.5% Kawshen gives).
Reverend J Shaft
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#7 Posted on 22.5.07 1348.47
Reposted on: 22.5.14 1349.11
(deleted by Reverend J Shaft on 22.5.07 1615)
Guru Zim
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#8 Posted on 22.5.07 1406.18
Reposted on: 22.5.14 1406.18
OK, there is a problem here:

Do you want to know the probability of something happening (which is determined in advance) or do you want to know the chance that, Knowing Teams A, B, C, and D are already picked - what are the odds that my team comes up next?

Most people actually don't want to know the probability of a team getting a spot - they want to know the odds at each iteration of the pick.

If you want to know the latter, you take out the total number of balls for the teams that have already gotten a choice. So if it is pick #3 and #1 had 200 balls and #2 had 199, then you would look at your team's # of balls / (total balls - 399). That isn't the same as the probability that they would get the #3 pick if you tried to figure it out before the event started.
edoug
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#9 Posted on 22.5.07 1457.38
Reposted on: 22.5.14 1459.01
    Originally posted by Reverend J Shaft
      Originally posted by JayJayDean
        Originally posted by Kawshen
        Seattle: 18.45%


      My fingers and toes are crossed.


    Boston: 38.7%

    So are mine... but probably for the opposite outcome.

    (And mostly thanks to people like Bill Simmons, who wrote this HI-larious piece, explaining why his beloved Celtics DESERVE the 1st or 2nd pick. Totally unbiased, of course.)



    (edited by Reverend J Shaft on 22.5.07 1344)


Imagine if the Celtics don't get a top 2 pick and they fire Rivers. It may not be the most sporting or ethical thing to do but he won too many losable games. Especially to the Spurs
JayJayDean
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#10 Posted on 22.5.07 1955.27
Reposted on: 22.5.14 1959.01
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
      Originally posted by Kawshen
      Seattle: 18.45%


    My fingers and toes are crossed.


FUCK YEAH!!!!!!!
Kawshen
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#11 Posted on 22.5.07 2001.55
Reposted on: 22.5.14 2005.00
Results:

1. Portland
2. Seattle
3. Atlanta
4. Memphis
5. Boston
6. Milwaukee
7. Minnesota
8. Charlotte
9. Chicago (via New York) whew...
10. Sacramento
11. Atlanta (via Indiana)
12. Philadelphia
13. New Orleans
14. LA Clippers
ekedolphin
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#12 Posted on 22.5.07 2014.03
Reposted on: 22.5.14 2015.11
The Celtics get their hearts broken again...
odessasteps
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#13 Posted on 22.5.07 2025.51
Reposted on: 22.5.14 2028.26
    Originally posted by ekedolphin
    The Celtics get their hearts broken again...


Simmons' pre-lottery column was pretty funny.

I can imagine what tomorrow's will be like.
It's False
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#14 Posted on 22.5.07 2040.46
Reposted on: 22.5.14 2041.00
If I'm Seattle, I'm hoping Portland goes with Kevin Durant. A Ray Lewis/Greg Oden combo could be huge!

And so much for the Grizz and Celtics. Now that they don't have Durant or Oden to fall back on, it'll be up to the GM's to keep them afloat. Maybe this is the year that Pau Gasol gets dealt.
JayJayDean
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#15 Posted on 22.5.07 2044.21
Reposted on: 22.5.14 2044.55
    Originally posted by It's False
    If I'm Seattle, I'm hoping Portland goes with Kevin Durant. A Ray Lewis/Greg Oden combo could be huge!


I think not. The Sonics can draft Durant and do a sign-and-trade for Rashard, and maybe get a couple of better pieces back. Plus, Durant will be cheaper than Rashard so that should help the cap situation, which isn't *bad* but it's not really that great, either.

I predict Simmons will live here within nine months.
DrewDewce
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#16 Posted on 22.5.07 2117.23
Reposted on: 22.5.14 2118.15
So, will Portland get killed for taking the big guy *this* time? (Bowie/Jordan v. Oden/Durant)

Of course not, but I'm just glad my Sonics snagged the 2nd pick and will be happy with whomever we draft. Not quite the sneak-in that it was when we got Gary Payton back in '90 despite being the "best" of the lottery teams, but good news for a franchise that could definitely use some.

Keep 'em in Seattle!!!!!!!! Let's go Seattle Supersonics!!!!!!!
redsoxnation
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#17 Posted on 22.5.07 2135.17
Reposted on: 22.5.14 2137.21
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
      Originally posted by It's False
      If I'm Seattle, I'm hoping Portland goes with Kevin Durant. A Ray Lewis/Greg Oden combo could be huge!


    I think not. The Sonics can draft Durant and do a sign-and-trade for Rashard, and maybe get a couple of better pieces back. Plus, Durant will be cheaper than Rashard so that should help the cap situation, which isn't *bad* but it's not really that great, either.

    I predict Simmons will live here within nine months.





Don't you mean Simmons will be living in Oklahoma City in 9 months? Sorry. Time to join hands with Pieman as we walk into the chopper blades.
As for the Bowie comparison: No one has ever killed Houston for taking the big man Olajuwon over Jordan and they actually had a 7'4" center already in place.

(edited by redsoxnation on 22.5.07 2236)
StingArmy
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#18 Posted on 22.5.07 2216.42
Reposted on: 22.5.14 2217.46
As a longtime Hawks fan, watching this lottery was like watching a Game 7 for me. I was going ballistic with every pick knowing what was at stake (i.e., Top 3 Or Bust). I totally forgot about getting Indiana's pick, which made tonight just that much sweeter. Obviously I would have preferred getting the #1 or #2, but not even Billy Knight could fuck up a #3. We need a PG badly, and that's been the case for 5+ years. His only choices are getting Mike Conley or duping Portland into trading their #1 for our #3 and #11. If we end up with Corey Brewer or Acie Law, somebody's gonna have to die.

Speaking of Portland, holy shit that team is going to be good. My boy Jarrett Jack is going to be rewarded handsomely, QBing what could be the league's #1 frontcourt next season. Assists + 3? Sounds about right.

- StingArmy
CajunMan
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#19 Posted on 22.5.07 2305.34
Reposted on: 22.5.14 2305.47
Watching Rivers and Ainge reaction was priceless. I wonder if they are worried about their jobs yet.
Quezzy
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#20 Posted on 23.5.07 0326.18
Reposted on: 23.5.14 0327.48
I understand that Oden and Durant are the prizes of this draft but if the Hawks do go with a point guard and get Conley with the third pick then that means the Grizzlies or Hawks get Al Horford, that's still pretty damn good. Horford is a beast, will be a starter his whole career and is probably more ready mentally than Oden and more ready physically than Durant. Really the first 10 picks could all be really good players. I understand Oden and Durant are supposed to be franchise players but missing out on them isn't the end of the world.
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