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The 7 - Site Bashing - How random is random?
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Stephanie
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#1 Posted on 22.5.02 0520.27
Reposted on: 22.5.09 0520.47
Well...the Wiener Of The Day - for the fourth time - is Keeper, a non-poster who hasn't even visited Wienerville in two and a half *months*. Shouldn't folks who - y'know - actually visit the site and contribute be recognized, rather that people who couldn't care less if all of Wienerville was consumed by rabid dingoes?

Steph
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CRZ
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#2 Posted on 22.5.02 0539.28
Reposted on: 22.5.09 0540.49
But then it wouldn't be, you know, random. ;-)
Stephanie
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#3 Posted on 22.5.02 0550.05
Reposted on: 22.5.09 0550.33

    Originally posted by CRZ
    But then it wouldn't be, you know, random.


Considering how many repeat Wieners there have been, I question how random the selection mechanism is.

Steph
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#4 Posted on 22.5.02 0651.38
Reposted on: 22.5.09 0651.57
Well now I don't think there have been as many repeats as you think there have...

Here's the list again, this time sorted by id:

04.04 - 23 - Eddie Famous
13.03 - 61 - DrHogie
19.03 - 70 - chuckc14
24.04 - 72 - PinkSkunk
17.04 - 74 - Ozzysun
02.03 - 78 - WAPU Bandit
15.04 - 85 - David Adams
27.03 - 91 - KevinKellyisFNHardcore
08.03 - 117 - BigDaddyLoco
19.04 - 129 - CajunMan
28.04 - 129 - CajunMan
22.04 - 131 - RDTAcuna
31.03 - 145 - kakapo
14.04 - 151 - Merc
06.03 - 158 - bigwavedave
07.05 - 165 - TheCardinalsFan
26.04 - 168 - calvinh0560
24.03 - 186 - Mixdorf
28.02 - 187 - SamZim
10.05 - 188 - GLyons
29.04 - 190 - Ruby Trax
10.04 - 196 - probleus
04.03 - 198 - vince316
28.03 - 199 - squiz
27.04 - 202 - Cactusbix David
01.03 - 214 - Markme123
17.05 - 216 - ges7184
30.04 - 218 - Heelturn
21.05 - 219 - Well Its The Big O
18.05 - 226 - Aaron Thomas
07.03 - 228 - britain
06.04 - 248 - Tribal Prophet
11.05 - 256 - Acrid
18.04 - 256 - Acrid
17.03 - 263 - SeVen
10.03 - 265 - dfallan
12.05 - 274 - andy1278
12.03 - 284 - Joe Kock
23.03 - 291 - mightymunchkin
14.03 - 318 - Catapult
25.04 - 322 - paragon
19.05 - 324 - Tod deKindes
15.03 - 325 - Chumpstain
09.04 - 326 - MonteCarl
09.05 - 337 - Tha Puerto Rican
04.05 - 347 - charlesfosterkane
12.04 - 349 - jimimium
22.03 - 349 - jimimium
02.04 - 374 - Gumbercules
30.03 - 377 - shea
03.03 - 378 - ScreamingHeadGuy
14.05 - 390 - Waspinator69
05.03 - 398 - CHUBBYLOVE
16.05 - 402 - jfkfc
08.05 - 408 - DasJeepGuy
21.03 - 414 - tarnish
20.05 - 424 - GoldenFan
11.03 - 429 - Omega Red
29.03 - 429 - Omega Red
08.04 - 447 - Big Bob
01.04 - 454 - Mr Heel II
09.03 - 456 - BigPofo
01.05 - 467 - Mild Mannered Madman
05.04 - 468 - Keeper
16.04 - 468 - Keeper
22.05 - 468 - Keeper
25.03 - 468 - Keeper
26.03 - 479 - ilovepuroresu
16.03 - 485 - Aquamarinebeard
03.04 - 494 - astrobstrd
18.03 - 496 - Ross
03.05 - 500 - Agent Graves
13.05 - 507 - ProdigalSmark
20.03 - 514 - Joseph Ryder
23.04 - 529 - Debaser
21.04 - 537 - NashNoSoldCancer
06.05 - 538 - Tha Crippler
07.04 - 541 - EvilActivity
15.05 - 545 - DeRF
02.05 - 549 - DONUTDREAMS
05.05 - 560 - The Psycho Pirate
11.04 - 577 - Marky Mark
20.04 - 586 - JJ
13.04 - 590 - Alpha Male

That's five repeats (seven actually, since Keeper has the fourpeat) out of eighty-four days. So we're getting a repeat-winner approximately every twelve days. Currently the pool has 623 eligible id's to choose from. It just doesn't strike me as stastically significant that we have one aberration, that "468" happened to have gotten drawn four times.

Still, I'm redoing the process to bring it in line with the database and I'll see if there's some other way I can salt the random number generator.

This is usually the point where I remind the world that this is JUST A THROWAWAY FEATURE although it *is* one of the best damn ideas I've ever had. ;-)
JohnPi
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#5 Posted on 22.5.02 0653.29
Reposted on: 22.5.09 0654.02
Technically, it is neigh impossible to make something completely random using a computer. True randomness if *very* hard to come by. He'd be better off using dice to find the Wiener on the day (doubt he could find a dice with enough sides, though).
pieman
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#6 Posted on 22.5.02 0717.01
Reposted on: 22.5.09 0717.11
Well thats what makes it random. Keeper has the smae chance EVERY DAY of being the Wiener of the Day - 1 in 623. By definition, random means having no pattern. If there were no repeats, then the pattern would be that each Wiener would have his or her day before there were any repeats and that, in and of itself, would be a pattern.

As another random point, I am always telling my mom that for the lottery, the winning ticket coulod be 1-2-3-4-5-6 and she says it will never happen. But, it has the same chance of coming up as any other six numbers.

Eh.
JohnPi
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#7 Posted on 22.5.02 1356.50
Reposted on: 22.5.09 1359.01
Actually, computer random number generators have a tendency to repeat themselves when reset to the beginning, unless pretty extreme measure are used to protect against it.

You're right, that in true randomness a number, even though it was just picked, will have the same chance of being picked as any other number. But, the computer doesn't have true randomness.

The point being: computers really don't make random numbers. What you are calling random, isn't really.
Jobberman
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#8 Posted on 22.5.02 1535.27
Reposted on: 22.5.09 1544.17
Is there anyway to figure out what number I am?
chuckc14
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#9 Posted on 22.5.02 1644.06
Reposted on: 22.5.09 1652.26
I'm assuming it comes from the registering order of all the wieners on the board...I guess if you REALLY want to know you could go to the wienerlist, sort the list by date registered, and start counting til you get to your name.

edit: ...and it's SOOO obvious the randomization process is more than a little bit biased, cause the top 100 ID #'s are gettin' NO love (as compared to the 100's, 200's, etc.) :-)



(edited by chuckc14 on 22.5.02 1649)
Guru Zim
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#10 Posted on 22.5.02 1721.56
Reposted on: 22.5.09 1722.14
Mouse over your name in the post to the left. Look at the bottom of the screen where it shows you the url. ?id= followed by your number.

Stephanie
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#11 Posted on 22.5.02 1728.17
Reposted on: 22.5.09 1729.01

    Originally posted by Guru Zim
    Mouse over your name in the post to the left. Look at the bottom of the screen where it shows you the url. ?id= followed by your number.




I'm #36! I'm #36!

And the Guru is #1. Well, he *did* design this board.

Steph

P.S. Come to notice it, everyone in this thread so far is in the top 70. Are we the wise elders of this board?
Llakor
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#12 Posted on 22.5.02 2148.49
Reposted on: 22.5.09 2157.10
As another random point, I am always telling my mom that for the lottery, the winning ticket coulod be 1-2-3-4-5-6 and she says it will never happen. But, it has the same chance of coming up as any other six numbers.

You are of course absolutely right, EXCEPT that because most lotteries are done with those spinning machines with the balls, they are not truly random either. Because it is impossible to guarantee that all of the balls used are identical, some balls will tend to be picked more often because they are heavier, lighter, shinier, smell more like Dove, more in contact with their inner Jesus, newer, older, have more paint on them, have heavier or lighter paint on them, have certain numbers on them, are closer to the moon's gravitational pull, have CAA as an agent instead of ICM or whathaveyou...

None of which is to say that the lottery companies don't try their damnedest to make the system as random as possible, but at best it simulates randomness rather than actually being random.
zoggy1
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#13 Posted on 22.5.02 2236.04
Reposted on: 22.5.09 2239.47
Heh, like anyone is gonna re-register to try to improve their Wiener of the Day chances

I don't know if it's entirely random or whether it's filtered for removed ID numbers. 2.5 months idle is a pretty short time...on muds some people idle for a year and expect their account to still be there.
Jobberman
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#14 Posted on 23.5.02 0731.18
Reposted on: 23.5.09 0734.55
Alright! #40! Maybe I'll get a Wienerville jersey with my number and name on it!
calvinh0560
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#15 Posted on 24.5.02 1041.14
Reposted on: 24.5.09 1053.09
Wow I was a wiener of the day and did not even know it. GO ME!!!
UAsnake2002
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#16 Posted on 24.5.02 1345.12
Reposted on: 24.5.09 1347.46
My number is #458 *sigh*. If I could the middle number to drop one, I would be a 4 time wiener...no wait.
pieman
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#17 Posted on 24.5.02 1451.33
Reposted on: 24.5.09 1451.46

    Originally posted by UAsnake2002
    My number is #458 *sigh*. If I could the middle number to drop one, I would be a 4 time wiener...no wait.


Does that make sense to anyone else?
TheBucsFan
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#18 Posted on 24.5.02 1529.07
Reposted on: 24.5.09 1529.07
#468 was drawn four times, but he is 458.
UAsnake2002
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#19 Posted on 24.5.02 2216.10
Reposted on: 24.5.09 2220.57
Sorry I made a crappy joke. The random drawing makes you wiener of the day. I'm no wiener, well except here.

*Hogan flex to prove it*
ges7184
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#20 Posted on 24.5.02 2252.56
Reposted on: 24.5.09 2253.20
And I was thinking all this time that I had never been chosen! But I have a feeling that very good feeling that soon I will be a two-time, two-time, two-time Wiener of the Day!

Random awards, the only kind I can win....sigh.
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