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The 7 - Baseball - The playoff picture with one week left!
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It's False
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#1 Posted on 25.9.06 1558.40
Reposted on: 25.9.13 1558.44
Today starts the last week of the baseball season and some playoff chases are still going. They look like this:

AL East:
Yankees 93-62 Clinched Division

Better luck next year, Sox fans.

AL Central:
Detroit 94-62 Clinched playoff spot
Minnesota 92-63 1.5 GB
Chicago 87-69 7 GB

The White Sox are pretty much out of it for the division. Congrats to the long-suffering Tigers fans. You're finally playing October baseball again! Whether you guys get the division is another story...

AL West:
Oakland 90-65 (Magic Number = 2)
Anaheim 84-71 6 GB

Technically, the Angels are still in it. They're more than capable of sweeping the A's in a four-game series this weekend and nearly swept this past weekend's series. Unfortunately, the fact that Oakland gets a three-game series with Seattle seals the Angels' fate.

AL Wild Card:
Minnesota 92-63
Chicago 87-69 5.5 GB

It'd take a total Twins collapse to get the White Sox in. Pencil in the Twins for the fourth team...and to crash and burn in the first round due to all the injuries plaguing their pitching staff.

NL East:
New York 93-62 Clinched Division

And thus ends the Atlanta reign of terror...

NL Central:
St. Louis 80-74
Houston 77-78 3.5 GB
Cincinnati 77-79 4 GB

Wouldn't that be a huge kick in the ass if somehow, someway, the Astros would just swoop in and steal the division out of nowhere? Don't laugh. They swept the Cardinals this weekend and have a real shot at doing just that.

NL West:
San Diego 83-72
Los Angeles 82-74 1.5 GB

Nice to know that all the good feelings brought on by last week's miracle comeback were immediately thrown in the shitter when the Dodgers lost two to PITTSBURG! Sigh...

NL Wild Card:
Philadelphia 82-73
Los Angeles 82-74 .5 GB

The Dodgers are as inconsistent as ever. Philly's on a 5-game tear. Yeah, it's gonna be another wait 'til next year case for the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Philly will wake up next Monday and wonder, "Did we really trade Bobby Abreu and STILL make the playoffs?"
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TheBucsFan
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#2 Posted on 25.9.06 1605.10
Reposted on: 25.9.13 1605.12
    Originally posted by It's False
    NL Central:
    St. Louis 80-74
    Houston 77-78 3.5 GB
    Cincinnati 77-79 4 GB

    Wouldn't that be a huge kick in the ass if somehow, someway, the Astros would just swoop in and steal the division out of nowhere? Don't laugh. They swept the Cardinals this weekend and have a real shot at doing just that.


Except, the Cardinals' remaing games are all at home, where they are a *much* better team (for example, they've lost nine of their last 10 road games). They need to win four of their final seven games at home to gurantee a title, and that's just in case the Astros win out. Also to note, the Cards have one home game not being played - it was rained out against the Giants earlier this month - unless it has an impact on the standings. So if it's a half-game race in either direction, they have that game in St. Louis to play.
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#3 Posted on 25.9.06 1618.41
Reposted on: 25.9.13 1618.41
Unfortunately I don't think the Astros are going to make it, they are way too inconsistent, they can't seem to make up their minds if they want to win or not. They play those same Pirates that beat the Cards twice, don't sleep on those Pirates. They also swept the Mets (before the Mets had clinched and started restling players). They're actually playing pretty well this last month of the season.

Lance Berkman is seriously being overlooked as a MVP candidate though. I don't have the stats to back it up but I'm pretty sure out of the teams still in the playoff race he probably accounts for a larger percentage of his team's offense than anybody.

(edited by Quezzy on 25.9.06 1425)
TheBucsFan
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#4 Posted on 25.9.06 1634.40
Reposted on: 25.9.13 1634.40
    Originally posted by Quezzy
    Unfortunately I don't think the Astros are going to make it, they are way too inconsistent, they can't seem to make up their minds if they want to win or not. Lance Berkman is seriously being overlooked as a MVP candidate. I don't have the stats to back it up but I'm pretty sure out of the teams still in the playoff race he probably accounts for a larger percentage of his team's offense than anybody.


Bill James probably has a much more telling statistic than this but for now I offer my version of that stat:

Albert Pujols ([113 runs + 129 RBI]/747 St. Louis runs) = 32.4 percent
Ryan Howard ([102 Runs +143 RBI]/829 Phillie runs) =29.6 percent
Lance Berkman ([92 Runs +130 RBI]/706 Astros runs) = 32.3 percent

So it's very close. Carlos Beltran also warrents mention, but really it's down to Pujols and Howard, sorry. Unless some miracle happens, Berkman's not going to the playoffs while the other three are, and in the case of Howard and Pujols, it is due largely to those two players' presence. But I'm going to mention a column written, I believe, by Buster Olney, though I can't find it in the archives at ESPN. The gist of it was that Pujols, in addition to his gaudy numbers (he's the only player in the top five in homes, RBI and batting average), also leads the league in game winning RBI, late-inning, pressure situation hits and RBI, batting average with runners in scoring position and two-out RBI. And that's after missing about three weeks midseason with a DL stint.

I should also mention that in that same column, the writer concluded that Howard should be MVP.

(edited by TheBucsFan on 25.9.06 1635)
MisterHenderson
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#5 Posted on 25.9.06 1803.51
Reposted on: 25.9.13 1803.59
I love these close pennant races that come down to the wire. Makes for exciting baseball. I am happy for the Tigers and Tiger fans, too. I can't believe this is the team that lost 119 games two years ago.
StaggerLee
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#6 Posted on 25.9.06 1908.22
Reposted on: 25.9.13 1908.32
Unless Brandon Looper wakes up and has a closer's mentality, the cardinals are in BIG trouble if they arent leading by more than three past the 8th inning.
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#7 Posted on 25.9.06 1955.20
Reposted on: 25.9.13 1955.21
I don't understand why Howard is a candidate but Beltran isn't. I guess only homeruns and RBI matter? It doesn't matter that Beltran is a better runner, a more patient batter and a gold glove caliber defender. It doesn't matter that his team is 11 games ahead and that his team is going to have home field advantage and be able to rest and set their pitching staff because of him. It doesn't matter that according to ESPN's park factor Philadelphia is the 8th easiest park to hit at this year and New York was the 6th hardest? But no, Howard has more homeruns and RBI so he MUST be a better candidate than Beltran.
TheBucsFan
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#8 Posted on 25.9.06 2009.13
Reposted on: 25.9.13 2009.13
    Originally posted by Quezzy
    I don't understand why Howard is a candidate but Beltran isn't. I guess only homeruns and RBI matter? It doesn't matter that Beltran is a better runner, a more patient batter and a gold glove caliber defender. It doesn't matter that his team is 11 games ahead and that his team is going to have home field advantage and be able to rest and set their pitching staff because of him. It doesn't matter that according to ESPN's park factor Philadelphia is the 8th easiest park to hit at this year and New York was the 6th hardest? But no, Howard has more homeruns and RBI so he MUST be a better candidate than Beltran.


Howard is ahead of Beltran in HR (58 to 40), RBI (143 to 114), BA (.314 to .277), OBP (.420 to .383), SLG (.673 to .603) ... Beltran has more runs (121 to 102), but that's one number. Do Beltran's 17 SB really impress you to the point that it's more impressive than Howard picking the Phillies up on his back for the last month to put them in the wild card hunt (and lead)? And it's not like Howard is barely edging out Beltran in those numbers; he's killing him.
It's False
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#9 Posted on 25.9.06 2236.25
Reposted on: 25.9.13 2236.25
Monday hasn't ended yet, but it looks like the White Sox are out!

Three AL spots have been clinched with Oakland's spot a formality at this point. Should we just pencil in the Yankees for the World Series now?
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#10 Posted on 25.9.06 2238.21
Reposted on: 25.9.13 2238.24
I think the Cardinals are going to pull off the Fold to End all Folds, eclipsing even the '95 Angels (the forgotten collapse), '78 Red Sox(who did come back down the stretch and won out to force that infamous game) and the '64 Phillies, the benchmark for El Foldo. Dodgers/Giants from '51 is a different cosmic level. Down to 2.5 games with 6 to play for Houston and 7 to play for St. Louis. For those fans of the chaos theory, the perfect storm is Houston either up .5 or down .5 forcing the Monday game, with the Cardinals achieving the tie against the Giants, while the Dodgers and Phillies have a 1 game playoff on Monday. This would really cause the playoff scheduling to be a mess, with a Tuesday play-in game. Who won the coin toss between the Phillies and Dodgers and has to travel cross country should they tie, and has a coin toss been held yet for the Astros and Cardinals? When your team quit on the season in mid-August you take whatever enjoyment you can find.

(edited by redsoxnation on 25.9.06 2340)

(edited by redsoxnation on 25.9.06 2342)
TheBucsFan
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#11 Posted on 25.9.06 2240.24
Reposted on: 25.9.13 2240.27
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    has a coin toss been held yet for the Astros and Cardinals? When your team quit on the season in mid-August you take whatever enjoyment you can find.


It was held today; the Astros would host a playoff.
It's False
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#12 Posted on 25.9.06 2244.48
Reposted on: 25.9.13 2244.50
    Originally posted by TheBucsFan
      Originally posted by redsoxnation
      has a coin toss been held yet for the Astros and Cardinals? When your team quit on the season in mid-August you take whatever enjoyment you can find.


    It was held today; the Astros would host a playoff.


If the playoff scenario does play out, it's almost a sure thing that Roger Clemens will make this his last home start. Meaning one of two things:

1. Cards fold. Clemens is hailed as a hero.
2. Houston offense folds (as they're prone to do during Clemens starts). Cards barely hang on.
Gugs
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#13 Posted on 25.9.06 2248.36
Reposted on: 25.9.13 2248.39
    Originally posted by It's False
      Originally posted by TheBucsFan
        Originally posted by redsoxnation
        has a coin toss been held yet for the Astros and Cardinals? When your team quit on the season in mid-August you take whatever enjoyment you can find.


      It was held today; the Astros would host a playoff.


    If the playoff scenario does play out, it's almost a sure thing that Roger Clemens will make this his last home start. Meaning one of two things:

    1. Cards fold. Clemens is hailed as a hero.
    2. Houston offense folds (as they're prone to do during Clemens starts). Cards barely hang on.


Or, 3. Roger Clemens folds, because it's a big game and he's Roger Clemens.
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#14 Posted on 26.9.06 0817.07
Reposted on: 26.9.13 0817.09
    Originally posted by Gugs
    Or, 3. Roger Clemens folds, because it's a big game and he's Roger Clemens.


I know your DNA is programmed to elicit such a reaction, but I'd think even Red Sox fans would have to accept that line of thinking as not really true anymore.

EDIT: It sure is cool that the Yankees and Tigers have 94 wins each and the Mets have 93, so if the Mets catch and pass the AL teams they get absolutely no reward for it. Well played as usual, MLB.

(edited by JayJayDean on 26.9.06 0621)
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#15 Posted on 26.9.06 1022.59
Reposted on: 26.9.13 1023.36
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
    EDIT: It sure is cool that the Yankees and Tigers have 94 wins each and the Mets have 93, so if the Mets catch and pass the AL teams they get absolutely no reward for it. Well played as usual, MLB.
If they had kept the alternating home-field advantage thing instead of giving it to the league that won the All-Star game, it would have been the American League's year to have the advantage in 2006 (since the last year of the alternating was 2002, and Anaheim had the HFA). Thus, your point is moot.
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#16 Posted on 26.9.06 1027.50
Reposted on: 26.9.13 1028.31
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
      Originally posted by Gugs
      Or, 3. Roger Clemens folds, because it's a big game and he's Roger Clemens.


    I know your DNA is programmed to elicit such a reaction, but I'd think even Red Sox fans would have to accept that line of thinking as not really true anymore.







2003 ALCS Game 7: Didn't get out of the 4th.
2004 NLCS Game 7: Lost despite having an early lead.
2005 World Series Game 1: Quit on team after having bad 1st inning.

The track record is still there for Roger.
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#17 Posted on 26.9.06 1049.46
Reposted on: 26.9.13 1049.55
    Originally posted by jfkfc
      Originally posted by JayJayDean
      EDIT: It sure is cool that the Yankees and Tigers have 94 wins each and the Mets have 93, so if the Mets catch and pass the AL teams they get absolutely no reward for it. Well played as usual, MLB.
    If they had kept the alternating home-field advantage thing instead of giving it to the league that won the All-Star game, it would have been the American League's year to have the advantage in 2006 (since the last year of the alternating was 2002, and Anaheim had the HFA). Thus, your point is moot.


The All-Star-winner's league gets home-field is stupid, as is the alternating of leagues.

    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    2003 ALCS Game 7: Didn't get out of the 4th.
    2004 NLCS Game 7: Lost despite having an early lead.
    2005 World Series Game 1: Quit on team after having bad 1st inning.

    The track record is still there for Roger.


I know your DNA is programmed to elicit such a reaction, but you can throw the 2000 ALCS Game 4, the 2003 World Series Game 4, and the 2004 Division Series Game 4 as counterpoints. The guys has a 3.71 career postseason ERA, with a 2.37 World Series ERA.

I don't even LIKE Clemens. I just think he's clearly gotten past the "post-season-choker"-label.
Gugs
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#18 Posted on 26.9.06 1451.28
Reposted on: 26.9.13 1453.47
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
    I know your DNA is programmed to elicit such a reaction, but you can throw the 2000 ALCS Game 4, the 2003 World Series Game 4, and the 2004 Division Series Game 4 as counterpoints. The guys has a 3.71 career postseason ERA, with a 2.37 World Series ERA.

    I don't even LIKE Clemens. I just think he's clearly gotten past the "post-season-choker"-label.


Game 4 is much less important than Game 7, or even Game 1. If your team's going into Game 7 of the World Series or the ALCS, you shouldn't feel safe giving the ball to Roger Clemens. If you're up 3-1 in a series where you have homefield, go ahead.
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#19 Posted on 26.9.06 1532.07
Reposted on: 26.9.13 1533.31
Game 4 is pretty important. Ask the Padres about 1998 and if they would have liked to have seen game 5.
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#20 Posted on 26.9.06 1901.41
Reposted on: 26.9.13 1902.48
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