User | Post (24 total) |

pieman
As young as he feels Level: 111
Posts: 2220/3593 EXP: 14856483 For next: 11923
Since: 11.12.01 From: China, Maine
Since last post: 17 days Last activity: 1 day
| #21 Posted on *29.4.06 0618.26* Reposted on: 29.4.13 0618.57 | |

*Originally posted by CRZ*
*Originally posted by pieman* See, this is why my wife tells me to stop talking to the TV.
You had a 3% chance of picking the right case at the beginning. It's still 3% when you are down to two cases. Guru is right.
But, since you randomly eliminated the other 24 cases to get to the final two, wouldn't the odds of the other case having the million be 3% at the beginning, too? Thus, the 50/50 proposition at the end?
Now my head hurts. I am still going with Guru on this one.
If you think it's 50/50, you're right. Unfortunately, Aaron doesn't think it's 50/50. He also has one less math degree than I do.
Exactly. I wrote in my explanation that I thought it was 50/50 (I think) and then I said I agreed with Guru. Those two things cannot both be correct. My head really hurts now. 50/50 it is! |

Tribal Prophet
Andouille Level: 88
Posts: 1367/2065 EXP: 6453162 For next: 197528
Since: 9.1.02 From: Winnipeg, MB, Canada
Since last post: 4 days Last activity: 1 day
| #22 Posted on *29.4.06 1057.32* Reposted on: 29.4.13 1058.49 | |

If you had a multiple choice question on a test that you were completely guessing in the dark on, your odds would be 25% of getting it right. Now if you may your decision and then eliminate two of the answers because they're absolutely not the right one, then you've now got a 50% chance (not 25%) because it's only one or the other. If the million is still in play, then odds that you picked the million at the beginning are 3%, but the odds that you could win it go up.
Everytime that they take a briefcase of the board (without it being the million) the odds of you picking the right one go up to a maximum of 50/50.
The only way that going with 3% to the end would work would be if the contestant just picked the case and then thy just opened all the cases at once. It's the difference between finding out if you were right at once, and finding out that you *may* be right with breaks for you to quit.
The 1/26 doesn't work because "26" is a variable in the equation. Everytime the variable changes, the answer (odds) do too.
Tribal Prophet |

Teppan-Yaki
Pepperoni Level: 66
Posts: 1019/1083 EXP: 2406647 For next: 55217
Since: 28.6.02
Since last post: 997 days Last activity: 967 days
| #23 Posted on *29.4.06 1358.30* Reposted on: 29.4.13 1358.31 | |

*Originally posted by britishiles* After she made the deal, Howie asked her what her next case was. She chose the $1000 case. Howie then said that the next offer would have been $500,000.
But yeah, the kid was cute.
This was the first time in the history of DOND that someone picked the million dollar case.
First time on the US that the top prize has been picked, but not the first time that DoND has had the top prize selected. The Aussie has had it at least twice, and the UK at least three times.
Semi-off-topic -- NBC has bought the rights to "1 vs. 100," which is also distributed by endemol; top prize is supposedly $3M. |

jwrestle
Lap cheong Level: 77
Posts: 951/1591 EXP: 4151261 For next: 39887
Since: 4.4.03 From: Nitro WV
Since last post: 227 days Last activity: 5 days
| #24 Posted on *2.5.06 1332.54* Reposted on: 2.5.13 1333.02 | |

Go play the addictive flash game.
http://www.nbc.com/Deal_or_No_Deal/game/
I was actually luck enough last night to pick the million dollar case on that sucker only problem is I don't see any of the money in my pocket. Darn flash game! :-D |