#21 Posted on 29.4.06 0618.26 Reposted on: 29.4.13 0618.57
Originally posted by CRZ
Originally posted by piemanSee, this is why my wife tells me to stop talking to the TV.
You had a 3% chance of picking the right case at the beginning. It's still 3% when you are down to two cases. Guru is right.
But, since you randomly eliminated the other 24 cases to get to the final two, wouldn't the odds of the other case having the million be 3% at the beginning, too? Thus, the 50/50 proposition at the end?
Now my head hurts. I am still going with Guru on this one.
If you think it's 50/50, you're right. Unfortunately, Aaron doesn't think it's 50/50. He also has one less math degree than I do.
Exactly. I wrote in my explanation that I thought it was 50/50 (I think) and then I said I agreed with Guru. Those two things cannot both be correct. My head really hurts now. 50/50 it is!
#22 Posted on 29.4.06 1057.32 Reposted on: 29.4.13 1058.49
If you had a multiple choice question on a test that you were completely guessing in the dark on, your odds would be 25% of getting it right. Now if you may your decision and then eliminate two of the answers because they're absolutely not the right one, then you've now got a 50% chance (not 25%) because it's only one or the other. If the million is still in play, then odds that you picked the million at the beginning are 3%, but the odds that you could win it go up.
Everytime that they take a briefcase of the board (without it being the million) the odds of you picking the right one go up to a maximum of 50/50.
The only way that going with 3% to the end would work would be if the contestant just picked the case and then thy just opened all the cases at once. It's the difference between finding out if you were right at once, and finding out that you *may* be right with breaks for you to quit.
The 1/26 doesn't work because "26" is a variable in the equation. Everytime the variable changes, the answer (odds) do too.