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pieman
As young as he feels Level: 113
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Since: 11.12.01 From: China, Maine
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| #21 Posted on *29.4.06 0618.26* Reposted on: 29.4.13 0618.57 | |

*Originally posted by CRZ*
*Originally posted by pieman* See, this is why my wife tells me to stop talking to the TV.
You had a 3% chance of picking the right case at the beginning. It's still 3% when you are down to two cases. Guru is right.
But, since you randomly eliminated the other 24 cases to get to the final two, wouldn't the odds of the other case having the million be 3% at the beginning, too? Thus, the 50/50 proposition at the end?
Now my head hurts. I am still going with Guru on this one.
If you think it's 50/50, you're right. Unfortunately, Aaron doesn't think it's 50/50. He also has one less math degree than I do.
Exactly. I wrote in my explanation that I thought it was 50/50 (I think) and then I said I agreed with Guru. Those two things cannot both be correct. My head really hurts now. 50/50 it is! |

Tribal Prophet
Andouille Level: 89
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Since: 9.1.02 From: Winnipeg, MB, Canada
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| #22 Posted on *29.4.06 1057.32* Reposted on: 29.4.13 1058.49 | |

If you had a multiple choice question on a test that you were completely guessing in the dark on, your odds would be 25% of getting it right. Now if you may your decision and then eliminate two of the answers because they're absolutely not the right one, then you've now got a 50% chance (not 25%) because it's only one or the other. If the million is still in play, then odds that you picked the million at the beginning are 3%, but the odds that you could win it go up.
Everytime that they take a briefcase of the board (without it being the million) the odds of you picking the right one go up to a maximum of 50/50.
The only way that going with 3% to the end would work would be if the contestant just picked the case and then thy just opened all the cases at once. It's the difference between finding out if you were right at once, and finding out that you *may* be right with breaks for you to quit.
The 1/26 doesn't work because "26" is a variable in the equation. Everytime the variable changes, the answer (odds) do too.
Tribal Prophet |

Teppan-Yaki
Pepperoni Level: 67
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Since: 28.6.02
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| #23 Posted on *29.4.06 1358.30* Reposted on: 29.4.13 1358.31 | |

*Originally posted by britishiles* After she made the deal, Howie asked her what her next case was. She chose the $1000 case. Howie then said that the next offer would have been $500,000.
But yeah, the kid was cute.
This was the first time in the history of DOND that someone picked the million dollar case.
First time on the US that the top prize has been picked, but not the first time that DoND has had the top prize selected. The Aussie has had it at least twice, and the UK at least three times.
Semi-off-topic -- NBC has bought the rights to "1 vs. 100," which is also distributed by endemol; top prize is supposedly $3M. |

jwrestle
Lap cheong Level: 78
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Since: 4.4.03 From: Nitro WV
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| #24 Posted on *2.5.06 1332.54* Reposted on: 2.5.13 1333.02 | |

Go play the addictive flash game.
http://www.nbc.com/Deal_or_No_Deal/game/
I was actually luck enough last night to pick the million dollar case on that sucker only problem is I don't see any of the money in my pocket. Darn flash game! :-D |

Guru Zim
SQL Dejection
**Administrator** Level: 141
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Since: 9.12.01 From: Bay City, OR
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| #25 Posted on *10.4.08 1931.27* Reposted on: 10.4.15 1932.32 | |

I was wrong.
Included is an excel file with the Monty Hall problem and Deal or No Deal (Simplified).
For the Deal or No Deal I was looking at the scenario where there are 3 cases left. For the sake of argument, I've called them dollar, dollar, million - the goal is to get the million.
If you update any cell it will "Play" the game 100 times for you.
DonD is a 50/50 shot. Monty is a 2/3 shot if you switch.
I knew you were right, but I had to prove it to myself.
http://the-w.com/Monty_DonD.xls
Yes, I did drag this thread back up to the top to post this.
//edit: To simplify the Monty Hall problem, if door 2 and 3 were both goats, I said he showed you door 3. It would actually be random between the two, but I didn't want to code that in.
(edited by Guru Zim on 10.4.08 1733) |

TheOldMan
Landjager Level: 62
Posts: 375/937 EXP: 1960892 For next: 23805
Since: 13.2.03 From: Chicago
Since last post: 246 days Last activity: 243 days
| #26 Posted on *10.4.08 2235.16* Reposted on: 10.4.15 2235.28 | |

I dunno about the maths, but I gave up on this show when they gave up on "The Million Dollar Mission".
There was a show back in the day called "Treasure Hunt". Part of it involved three contestants picking random jack-in-the-boxes, cranking to find the one 'winner' where Jack popped out, and gave you a chance to go for up to $25,000.
I swear to God I could pick the winning jack-in-the-box about 80% of the time. Thought I was haunted..
I got better... |

dMr
Andouille Level: 91
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Since: 2.11.02 From: Edinburgh, Scotland
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| #27 Posted on *11.4.08 0451.02* Reposted on: 11.4.15 0451.46 | |

The first time I saw them offer the switch this very question hurt my head for WAY longer than it should have done.
I knew deep down there was no logical reason to switch, but still couldn't convince myself of it.
The easiest way I found to think about it was that on the DOND side of the problem, the 'other person' once you get down to the final two is in exactly the same position as yourself. The fact that you have been the one randomly selecting the boxes up to that point is irrelevant. For it to make sense for you to swap, it would have to also make sense for them to swap, which would make no sense.
Your natty spreadsheet illustrates it rather better than my wordiness though. Kudos I say.
Me, I lost interest in the show when they seemingly started going exclusively for contestants who believed they got 'feelings' about what was in their box. And were eternally surprised when they were wrong. Muppets.
(edited by dMr on 11.4.08 1256) |

Mayhem
Scrapple Level: 112
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Since: 25.4.03 From: Nashville, TN
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| #28 Posted on *11.4.08 0630.07* Reposted on: 11.4.15 0631.17 | |

The Monday, April 28th episode of Deal or No Deal is going to be a Star Wars (community.tvguide.com) themed show, complete with R2D2, Carrie Fisher & Darth Vader as the banker ...
Hmmmm ... |

Mr. Boffo
Scrapple Level: 116
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Since: 24.3.02 From: Oshkosh, WI
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| #29 Posted on *11.4.08 1418.39* Reposted on: 11.4.15 1419.02 | |

Yeah, the commercials are advertising all the special Deal or No Deals they are doing. They're doing a spring break episode, the Star Wars episode, and some sort of episode which involves Howie spinning a wheel that has a bunch of countries listed on it. I don't know what that's about. |

SchippeWreck
Banger Level: 100
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Since: 26.3.03 From: Glendale, CA
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| #30 Posted on *11.4.08 1510.40* Reposted on: 11.4.15 1510.44 | |

*Originally posted by Mr. Boffo* Yeah, the commercials are advertising all the special Deal or No Deals they are doing. They're doing a spring break episode, the Star Wars episode, and some sort of episode which involves Howie spinning a wheel that has a bunch of countries listed on it. I don't know what that's about.
The wheel is part of the World Tour episodes. Howie will be traveling to countries which have international versions of the show and playing their version of the game. That means the 26K Girls from the Philippines version (which, incidentally, isn't in production anymore) will be getting exposure on US TV. I wish it was the ASF instead.
(I think only one other person on this board knows what the hell I'm talking about.) |

TheOldMan
Landjager Level: 62
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Since: 13.2.03 From: Chicago
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| #31 Posted on *11.4.08 2210.34* Reposted on: 11.4.15 2211.38 | |

I saw an act with 26 Filipino girls in Olongapo City once...
HIYOOOOOO!!
I'll be here all week - open a nice, cool San Mig, and try the monkey meat. |

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