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27.8.07 0619
The 7 - Current Events & Politics - Canadian Election Hits Homestretch
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richcon
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#21 Posted on 21.1.06 1819.08
Reposted on: 21.1.13 1819.10
I find it frustrating that the NDP can garner 19% of the national vote but will get something like 6% of the seats.

I find the Liberals strategy of campaigning from the left and ruling from the right laughable. Their cuts to the health care system are what is causing our "crisis", yet they try to claim they are defenders (and the Conservatives are the attackers) of Medicare. I can't in good concsious vote for the Conservatives (their stance on Gay Marriage and Abortion are enough to turn me off alone). My riding looks close between the Liberals and the PC, but I am voting NDP.

(edited by richcon on 21.1.06 1619)
Freeway
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#22 Posted on 22.1.06 2159.38
Reposted on: 22.1.13 2200.13
ONE DAY REMAINS!

Poll Updates...
-Conservatives ahead Nationally by about 10%.
-BC has Tories ahead by 5-6% over NDP (36-31 in Strategic poll, 35-29 in Ipsos poll). Liberals are third, slightly behind NDP.
-Alberta's Conservative. Surprise. Ipsos has Tories at staggering 64%, with the Greens nipping at the Liberals heels for second.
-Sask./Manitoba's dominantly Conservative (Ipsos poll has them at 47% to 29% for Liberals).
-Ontario's a dead heat between Grits & Tories. Strategic poll has them tied at 37%. That poll also says Grits are up 45-to-30 in the Greater Toronto Area, whilst the Tories dominate 42-to-30 in the rest of the province. An SES poll in the Greater Toronto Area had them pretty much in a deadlock, though.
-Quebec's going Bloc. Strategic poll has them at 47%. Conservatives lead for second with 24% to the Liberal 15%. As with Ontario, the major urban area shows a odd pattern: Liberals & Conservatives are tied for second in Montreal, but the Conservatives are a clear second choice throughout the rest of Quebec (31% to the Grits' 11%).
-Atlantic Canada's another deadlock, with the two major parties polling neck & neck.

So, like most years, it boils down to this: The West goes Conservative (with the NDP picking up some seats in BC). Quebec goes Bloc. The election will swing depending on:
i) How many seats the Conservatives can get in Ontario, Quebec & the Maritimes...
ii) How many seats the NDP gets in the Maritimes.

And we'll know all the answers in 24 hours...
The Goon
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#23 Posted on 23.1.06 0732.36
Reposted on: 23.1.13 0733.36
One day remains? The campaign ended yesterday.

Just as a small FYI to everyone (particularly those out east):

Apparently it's illegal to blog/discuss election results online (or on any medium) until the polls close in British Columbia at 10pm EST.

Yeah, I know-how enforcable is it, satellite dishes, yadda yadda...but the maximum fine is $25 000 and some jail time, so why risk it.
Guru Zim
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#24 Posted on 23.1.06 2109.53
Reposted on: 23.1.13 2109.54
CBC called it WAY too early. I bet they got it wrong. They're calling conservative minority govt. right now, but as they did they dropped the conservative lead / win down by 4 seats.

Urk.
The Goon
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#25 Posted on 23.1.06 2211.22
Reposted on: 23.1.13 2211.37
No, they knew what the deal was going in, especially considering the Western votes.

As it goes back and forth I am very pleased with the results, particularly for the NDP. I hope that they end up holding the balance of power.
tarnish
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#26 Posted on 24.1.06 0630.01
Reposted on: 24.1.13 0631.37
    Originally posted by Guru Zim
    CBC called it WAY too early. I bet they got it wrong. They're calling conservative minority govt. right now, but as they did they dropped the conservative lead / win down by 4 seats.


CanWest Global had a "breaking news" item right at 2100h Eastern (just when the polls closed in ON, QC, and MN) saying it would be a Conservative minority. CBC didn't hop on the bandwagon until more than an hour later.

Turns out they were right, sadly.

    Originally posted by The Goon

    As it goes back and forth I am very pleased with the results, particularly for the NDP. I hope that they end up holding the balance of power.


If there is one bright spot from my perspective, it's that the NDP holds the balance of power. If the Conservatives had no choice by to attempt coalition with the Bloc, then we wouldn't be able to hold it against them if it happens. With the NDP sitting right there with enough seats to give Harper a house majority, one would hope Harper will be willing to at least try that dance.

I still can't believe Stephen Harper is now the face of my nation. I will now go out and huff gas.
The Goon
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#27 Posted on 24.1.06 0742.47
Reposted on: 24.1.13 0743.05
Well, the final numbers don't, in fact, leave the NDP with the balance of power:

CPC: 124
LPC: 103
BQ: 51
NDP: 29
IND: 1

...with 155 making a majority. I'm not sure if there's any recounts pending. I wonder how soon before we do this dance again?

I'm pretty happy with how it turned out-An Alberta-based government that's going to rely heavily on Quebec. Democracy at its sweetest.

Prime Minister Harper's speech last night was as good a speech I've heard from a leader of this country-he spoke of inclusion and respecting all members of parliament. I'm optimistic for the future for the first time in a while.
Bullitt
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#28 Posted on 24.1.06 0829.42
Reposted on: 24.1.13 0829.55
    Originally posted by tarnish
    I still can't believe Stephen Harper is now the face of my nation. I will now go out and huff gas.


Has the country sunk into a giant hole yet?

Clocks are still working...trains are still running on time.

Granted, it IS only 7:30am in Calgary...maybe Harper hasn't had enough time to destroy the country, right?

Sounds like all the chest thumping done by all those lefties in the States who said they'd move to Canada if Bush won a second term.

He'll be kept in check with the minority government...I think we'll be fine.
TheOldMan
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#29 Posted on 24.1.06 0851.17
Reposted on: 24.1.13 0851.36
Speaking as an American who gave your election a bit more than a glance, let me welcome you to the United States of the Great White North America - at least if those Liberal ads I saw online are to be taken seriously. Not that I suppose Martin & the Grifters Grits could really run on their record.

But I have a question that I'm hoping our Canadian W's can help me out with. On the political spectrum, it's my impression that the NDP is even farther out on the left than the Liberals. I presume something like if Ted Kennedy formed a splinter party here, leaving the more moderate Democrats as a more centrist alternative.

With all the talk about the NDP gaining "balance of power", I get that it would potentially allow them to get pandered to when the minority government couldn't get an agreement on proposed legislation with the Libs or the Bloc - but I don't see where it would really come up in practice. Anything the Tories might want to go in with the NDP on, wouldn't the Liberals actually be closer politically (and so easier to make a deal with)? And then on the stuff that the Grits won't go for, they'll have to grease the legislative skids with some fine Quebecois pork?

Or is the whole point that with NDP coming up just short, all the Liberals now have to do is convince the Bloc that it's time for new elections, when they feel the time is right?
The Goon
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#30 Posted on 24.1.06 0857.43
Reposted on: 24.1.13 0858.21
TheOldMan:

I think all of the scenarios you present are viable. The CPC will have to get the support of at least one party to get anything passed. So the other parties could agree to bring the government down. However, with the Liberals having to go through a leadership change, that won't be happening any time soon. As well, we as voters certainly don't want to have another election right now. So each side has some cards up its sleeve.

Personally, I want to dress in cowboy gear, head to downtown Toronto, and start ordering random people to get me a coffee.
raygun
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#31 Posted on 24.1.06 0939.38
Reposted on: 24.1.13 0940.30
You know, if they weren't the Reform party cloaked in Tory blue, they might have won a majority government.
haz
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#32 Posted on 24.1.06 1120.21
Reposted on: 24.1.13 1120.24
There won't be an election again for at least two years.

If there was, no matter what happens Harper would win a majority as the people of this country would revolt on anyone who forces another election now. That gives the Liberals some time to replace Paul Martin and to really rebuild the party with some new blood/ideas...

It was the result that most expected, so no big surprise. I returned to my roots for my vote and supported the Liberals. Overall, I think we are probably further ahead as a nation than we were 12-13 years ago, and despite all their transgressions, the Liberals do deserve some credit for that. Oh, and I do not believe that any party in power wouldn't have had similar scandals. (see former Tory governments and former NDP Ontario government...)

Anyhow, I am quite happy to watch Steven Harper lead the country, knowing that he is going to held in check by ALL the other parties. I hope this leads to something better for all people, which seemed to be the rhetoric all leaders were spewing last night....
tarnish
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#33 Posted on 24.1.06 1611.11
Reposted on: 24.1.13 1611.13
    Originally posted by Bullitt
    Has the country sunk into a giant hole yet?

    Clocks are still working...trains are still running on time.

    Granted, it IS only 7:30am in Calgary...maybe Harper hasn't had enough time to destroy the country, right?


Oh, I know I was being trite.

And I know that the Liberals are lucky not to be stuck in a hole like the PCs were in the mid-nineties when they went from Government in power to 2 seats in the whole country.

Harper isn't going to destroy the country. I don't agree with some of his beliefs, but that's why we have a government: to reflect the wishes of the people. And the people have spoken.

I talked with a lot of people at work today who think that we'll see another election in 12 to 18 months. I hope not. I say let the Conservatives work at it for a little bit; even if they're terrible, I don't suspect they'll be able to do anything irreversibly tragic in 4 years. They said all along, "give us a chance." They've got it now, and I'm not eager to throw the whole thing in a blender again before we can get a good read on what this party is like in power.

    Originally posted by Bullitt

    He'll be kept in check with the minority government...I think we'll be fine.


In some ways I hate to say it, but I have to agree.
MoeGates
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#34 Posted on 24.1.06 1754.38
Reposted on: 24.1.13 1755.24
Can someone explain why Alberta is so much more Conservative than Sastakatoba? Just curious.
Bullitt
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#35 Posted on 24.1.06 1759.04
Reposted on: 24.1.13 1759.15
I knew what you were getting at, tarnish...

I can't see another election in the next two years.

People will turn on whomever is the cause of it pretty darn quick!
Freeway
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#36 Posted on 24.1.06 1917.13
Reposted on: 24.1.13 1918.41
    Originally posted by MoeGates
    Can someone explain why Alberta is so much more Conservative than Sastakatoba? Just curious.


Here's the demographic information you need: By 2016, Alberta's government will have as much revenue as the Canadian Federal Government. We're RICH, and we're only getting richer.

As such, we HATE socialism and all the evils associated with it and tend to vote fiscally conservative, which allows us to make more money and keep it.

Ontario & BC are well-off, but much less so than Alberta. The rest of the country depends on transfer payments (federal tax dollars from Alberta, for instance, are used to give the Maritimes more money to work their social programs) to run their social & welfare programs.

QUICK & DIRTY: The rest of Canada is married to the welfare state (Liberals/NDP), while Alberta's rich enough to not need it.

AND FOR THE CURIOUS, CANADA'S PRIME MINISTERS:
1. Sir John A. MacDonald [Conservative; 1867-73 & 1878-91]
2. Alexander MacKenzie [Liberal; 1873-78]
3. Sir John Abbott [Conservative; 1891-92]
4. Sir John Thompson [Conservative; 1892-94]
5. Sir MacKenzie Bowell [Conservative; 1894-96]
6. Sir Charles Tupper [Conservative; 1896]
7. Sir Wilfred Laurier [Liberal; 1896-1911]
8. Sir Robert Borden [Conservative/Unionist; 1911-20]
9. Arthur Meighen [Conservative; 1920-21 & 1926]
10. MacKenzie King [Liberal; 1921-26, 1926-30 & 1935-48]
11. Calgary's own Richard Bennett [Conservative; 1930-35]
12. Louis St. Laurent [Liberal; 1948-57]
13. John Diefenbaker [Progressive Conservative; 1957-63]
14. Lester B. Pearson [Liberal; 1963-68]
15. Pierre Trudeau [Liberal; 1968-79 & 1980-84]
16. Joe Clark [Progressive Conservative; 1979-80]
17. John Turner [Liberal; 1984]
18. Brian Mulroney [Progressive Conservative; 1984-93]
19. Kim Campbell [Progressive Conservative; 1993]
20. Jean Chretien [Liberal; 1993-2003]
21. Paul Martin [Liberal; 2003-06]
22. Stephen Harper [Conservative; 2006]

(edited by Freeway420 on 24.1.06 1914)
Stilton
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#37 Posted on 24.1.06 2221.41
Reposted on: 24.1.13 2221.43
Note that the Harperites got NO SEATS in any of the three main urban centres. NONE.

These aren't the Red Tories of yesteryear. This are scary Buchananist Neo-Con turds. It's not going to take long for this party's mysogyny, homophobia, racism, and religious kookery (Stockwell Day is one of those morons who think the Universe is only 6000 years old... imgaine making him minister of foreign affairs.... what a national embarrassment!) to spook the rest of the country into reconsidering this little electoral experiment.


(edited by Stilton on 24.1.06 2323)
El Nastio
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#38 Posted on 25.1.06 0021.13
Reposted on: 25.1.13 0026.16
I fail to see how making the issue a free vote in the House equals homophobia. I thought it equals democracy because the guys we VOTED in will make the calls and won't be srrong armed or blackmailed into voting. And the Supreme Court and other Courts won't have to do the government's work for them.

If you don't like the "Harperites" for some (SOME) of their views, tough break. They represent their riding. Complain to the voters. And hey, if the "Harperites" are religous, the Sacred Charter protects them and gives them the "right" to have it (after all, "it's the charter, stupid!"). Oh, and you do know that people's religious beliefs actually effects their core values right? It effects their desisions as well. Voters should (and usually do) know this when voting.

As a Roman Catholic (a REAL one, not some wishy-washy "I'll pick what I want to believe and ignore other stuff" bullshit that our now former Prime Minister does), my faith plays a pivital role in all aspects of my life. In my everyday desisions. Including voting. And if the people who vote do that, it makes sense it goes (or should go) for politicians too.

I can understand seperation of Church and State. I can't understand the sepration of Church and Person. Often, one completes the other. You can't (and shouldn't) be asked to check your beliefs with your coat at the door. Paul Martin can say "I have responsibilites as a legislator!". I can just as easily say to him is "bullshit". His chief responsibility is as a Catholic. But then again, our friend Paul has always been quick to jump sides. Remeber a couple of years ago when the Liberals voted to keep the traditional definition of marriage? Guess they're all homophobic too.

If you're THAT scared about Big Bad Stevie Harper and the Neanderthal Posse attack on rights, I guess you were equally scared at Paul Martin and his liberals taking away other's rights.


Steve Harper is an intelligent man, he's got some good people on his side. We now have a system with some checks and balances. I'm looking forward to the future in some respects. More than I was last week.


Oh, and newsflash Stilton (and anyone else); being against same-sex marriage isn't homophobic. So layoff the haterade when it comes to religous people, please.

(edited by El Nastio on 25.1.06 0123)
Guru Zim
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#39 Posted on 25.1.06 0026.46
Reposted on: 25.1.13 0029.01
I thought the polls closed at 7:00 Pacific, which is when I was watching CBC. They called the election at 7:09. Was I watching a replay of something from the night before? WTF
tarnish
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#40 Posted on 25.1.06 0724.44
Reposted on: 25.1.13 0724.49
    Originally posted by Guru Zim

    I thought the polls closed at 7:00 Pacific, which is when I was watching CBC. They called the election at 7:09. Was I watching a replay of something from the night before? WTF


This chart shows the polling times across the country. CanWest Media (Global) called it within seconds of the polls closing in Ontario/Quebec at about 2130h Eastern (1830h Pacific). If CBC called it 10 minutes after the polls closed in BC, at 1900h Pacific (2200h Eastern), they were about forty minutes behind.

I actually thought there was a bigger gap than that, but the numbers don't lie.
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