Mr. Boffo
Scrapple Level: 124
Posts: 1445/3844 EXP: 21356659 For next: 480003
Since: 24.3.02 From: Oshkosh, WI
Since last post: 3886 days Last activity: 3846 days
| #1 Posted on 27.12.05 0903.24 Reposted on: 27.12.12 0904.34 | NFL AFTER WEEK 16 SPECTACULAR
AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE
1. Indianapolis 2. Denver 3. Cincinnati 4. New England 5. Jacksonville 6. Pittsburgh Out - Kansas City
New England and Cincinnati would switch if New England won and Cincinnati lost. Pittsburgh and Kansas City would switch if Kansas City won, Pittsburgh lost, and San Diego lost.
But otherwise, the first round games will be Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati and Jacksonville @ New England.
NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE
This is entirely more screwed up. Right now, it's:
1. Seattle 2. Chicago 3. Tampa Bay 4. New York 5. Carolina 6. Washington Out - Dallas
But if we assume that each game in the final week has two options that are equally likely, here is the table showing what is possible.
Team | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Total | Seattle | 100% | | | | | | 100% | Chicago | | 100% | | | | | 100% | Tampa Bay | | | 50% | 25% | 19.58% | 4.5% | 99.08% | New York | | | 31.25% | 43.75% | 18.75% | 6.25% | 100% | Carolina | | | 12.5% | 12.5% | 37.5% | 25% | 87.5% | Washington | | | 6.25% | 18.75% | 12.5% | 37.5% | 75% | Dallas | | | | | 14.79% | 23.63% | 38.42% |
edit: found an error in the table that changed New York, Tampa Bay, and Dallas slightly.
For everyone else, it's time to start thinking about next year.
DRAFT ORDER RIGHT NOW 1. Houston 2. New Orleans 3. Green Bay 4. N.Y. Jets 5. San Francisco 6. Tennessee 7. St Louis 8. Arizona 9T. Detroit 9T. Tennessee 11. Oakland 12. Cleveland 13. Buffalo 14. Philadelphia 15. Baltimore 16. Miami 17. Minnesota 18. Atlanta 19. Kansas City 20. Dallas 21. San Diego 22. Carolina 23. Tampa Bay 24. New England 25T. N.Y. Giants 25T. Pittsburgh 27. Chicago 28. Cincinnati 29. Jacksonville 30. Denver 31. Seattle 32. Indianapolis *Playoff team's draft order subject to change.
I have a thing that shows what the draft order could be after next week's games finish, but I ran out of time. I'll have to post it later. I apologize in advance for any errors I may make.
(edited by Mr. Boffo on 28.12.05 1940) Promote this thread! | | redsoxnation
Scrapple Level: 165
Posts: 4981/7534 EXP: 58154583 For next: 781222
Since: 24.7.02
Since last post: 3913 days Last activity: 3913 days
| #2 Posted on 27.12.05 0912.01 Reposted on: 27.12.12 0915.31 | I think the only question that matters is if Houston beats San Francisco while the Jets, Packers and Saints all lose, how does the 5 way multi-conference, multi-division tie break? | Gugs
Bierwurst Level: 90
Posts: 1468/1857 EXP: 7123386 For next: 65250
Since: 9.7.02 From: Sleep (That's where I'm a viking)
Since last post: 3952 days Last activity: 3081 days
| | Y!: | |
|
| #3 Posted on 27.12.05 0928.09 Reposted on: 27.12.12 0929.01 | Originally posted by redsoxnation I think the only question that matters is if Houston beats San Francisco while the Jets, Packers and Saints all lose, how does the 5 way multi-conference, multi-division tie break?
It would go by strength of schedule, then divisional/conference tiebreakers, then coin flips. So...
1. San Francisco 2. Houston 3. New York 4. Green Bay 5. New Orleans | Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit Moderator Level: 142
Posts: 2876/5284 EXP: 34592930 For next: 375585
Since: 2.1.02 From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.
Since last post: 1666 days Last activity: 1666 days
| #4 Posted on 27.12.05 1143.37 Reposted on: 27.12.12 1149.51 | ESPN's take on the 5-way mess: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2272110
The tiebreaker for determining the draft's No. 1 spot, whether it's two teams tied for the dubious honor or five franchises, is each club's strength of schedule. Or, more accurately, their weakness of schedule. The 2005 records of each team's opponents would be totaled and the franchise that played the "easiest" schedule would land the first pick. And under that scenario, the displaced Saints could sneak into the top spot.
New Orleans' opponents have an aggregate winning mark of just .507. Then, in order, comes Green Bay (.520), the Jets (.547), Houston (.556) and San Francisco (.573), according to the league. Final analysis of strength of schedule standings cannot be determined until after all Sunday's games are completed. But it is conceivable that the Texans, who have essentially led the race all year, could fade in the stretch if they defeat the 49ers.
Originally posted by Gugs 1. San Francisco 2. Houston 3. New York 4. Green Bay 5. New Orleans
According to ESPN.com, you have it the wrong way around. 1. Saints 2. Packers 3. J-E-T-S 4. Texans 5. 49ers
(edited by Zeruel on 27.12.05 1246) | BigSteve
Pepperoni Level: 71
Posts: 946/1091 EXP: 3053089 For next: 114040
Since: 23.7.04 From: Baltimore, MD
Since last post: 6276 days Last activity: 6004 days
| #5 Posted on 27.12.05 1247.40 Reposted on: 27.12.12 1247.42 | So what happens in the event of Redskins and Cowboys wins along with Giants, Panthers, and Bucs losses to create a five way tie at 10-6? I'm pretty sure that Washington wins the division and New York gets one of the Wild Cards, a I think Dallas would be the odd team out, but how does seeding shake out there? | JayJayDean
Scrapple Level: 136
Posts: 2466/4750 EXP: 29484279 For next: 612713
Since: 2.1.02 From: Seattle, WA
Since last post: 2975 days Last activity: 2553 days
| | Y!: | |
|
| #6 Posted on 27.12.05 1321.51 Reposted on: 27.12.12 1321.51 | Originally posted by BigSteve So what happens in the event of Redskins and Cowboys wins along with Giants, Panthers, and Bucs losses to create a five way tie at 10-6? I'm pretty sure that Washington wins the division and New York gets one of the Wild Cards, a I think Dallas would be the odd team out, but how does seeding shake out there?
ACCORDING TO NFL.COM:
Washington can clinch division title with: 1) WAS win + NYG loss AND Tampa Bay can clinch division title with: 1) TB win, OR 2) CAR loss, OR 3) TB tie + CAR tie.
So Washington wins the NFC East and Tampa Bay wins the NFC South. The Bucs get the #3 seed because they defeated Washington 36-35 on 11/13 (when Gruden went for two and the win).
The Giants have clinched a playoff spot, so the last spot would be between Dallas and Carolina, and since the Cowboys were nice enough to beat the Panthers on Saturday Dallas would be in and Carolina would be home for the playoffs. The Giants would get the #5 seed based on their superior divisional record to Dallas.
1. Seattle 2. Chicago 3. Tampa Bay 4. Washington 5. N.Y. Giants 6. Dallas | Mr. Boffo
Scrapple Level: 124
Posts: 1446/3844 EXP: 21356659 For next: 480003
Since: 24.3.02 From: Oshkosh, WI
Since last post: 3886 days Last activity: 3846 days
| #7 Posted on 27.12.05 1851.12 Reposted on: 27.12.12 1851.25 | Ah, finally done at work. Anyway, I wrote a program last night that looked at every possible outcome of the 16 games this week, and the draft order associated with it. (Math geeks know that that is 2^16, or 65536 possible combinations). Below was the result. A quick caveat. If two (or more) teams with the same record finish with the same SOS, it gives the higher pick to the team that is first alphabetically. I'm too lazy to modify it to properly give the spot to the team with the higher conference or divisional record where applicable.
Team | High Rank | Low Rank | Houston | 4 | 1 | New Orleans | 6 | 1 | New York Jets | 6 | 1 | Green Bay | 7 | 1 | San Francisco | 7 | 1 | Tennessee | 11 | 2 | Oakland | 12 | 4 | Buffalo | 12 | 6 | Detroit | 12 | 6 | St Louis | 12 | 6 | Arizona | 13 | 6 | Cleveland | 13 | 7 | Baltimore | 14 | 12 | Philadelphia | 14 | 12 | Atlanta | 17 | 15 | Miami | 17 | 15 | Minnesota | 17 | 15 | Dallas | 19 | 18 | Kansas City | 26 | 18 | San Diego | 26 | 19 | Tampa Bay | 26 | 19 | Washington | 26 | 19 | Carolina | 27 | 19 | New England | 29 | 19 | New York Giants | 29 | 19 | Pittsburgh | 29 | 19 | Chicago | 29 | 23 | Cincinnati | 29 | 24 | Jacksonville | 29 | 24 | Denver | 32 | 30 | Indianapolis | 32 | 30 | Seattle | 32 | 30 |
Apologies if this shows up bad under a non-IE browser. FrontPage adds all this useless formatting. High Rank is the latest they could pick. Low Rank is the highest.
I then modified the program to only look at those possibilities where the 5 teams all finish at 3-13. Under those parameters, the printout for those 5 teams came out like this.
Team | High Rank | Low Rank | Green Bay | 5 | 2 | Houston | 4 | 2 | New Orleans | 1 | 1 | New York Jets | 5 | 2 | San Francisco | 5 | 3 |
So it said that New Orleans always gets the first pick if there is a five-way-tie at 3-13. I can't assure that the program is figuring properly, but I would be willing to base my personal reputation on this board (HA!) on them being at worst a coinflip away from the #1 pick. The caveat from earlier is moot because there would be no tiebreakers with NYJ, and New Orleans wins the tiebreaker with San Francisco (because of NO's 1-11 conference record). Notice also that this does not contradict the first printout that states that New York, Green Bay, and San Francisco can finish #1. What it does say is that they can't finish #1 if New Orleans loses. | Sec19Row53
Lap cheong Level: 89
Posts: 769/1765 EXP: 6678283 For next: 237645
Since: 2.1.02 From: Oconomowoc, WI
Since last post: 22 days Last activity: 3 hours
| #8 Posted on 27.12.05 2049.21 Reposted on: 27.12.12 2051.11 | I don't believe that tiebreakers come into play on draft order. You either have a different strength of schedule (SOS), or you have a coin flip.
I'm pretty sure that this is what the text that Zeruel quoted from ESPN says. | Mr. Boffo
Scrapple Level: 124
Posts: 1448/3844 EXP: 21356659 For next: 480003
Since: 24.3.02 From: Oshkosh, WI
Since last post: 3886 days Last activity: 3846 days
| #9 Posted on 27.12.05 2104.45 Reposted on: 27.12.12 2105.52 | From http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers :
TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING If two or more clubs are tied in the selection order, the strength-of-schedule tie breaker is applied, subject to the following exceptions for playoff clubs:
1. The Super Bowl winner is last and the Super Bowl loser next-to-last. 2. Any non-Super Bowl playoff club involved in a tie shall be assigned priority within its segment below that of non-playoff clubs and in the order that the playoff clubs exited from the playoffs. Thus, within a tied segment a playoff club that loses in the Wild-Card game will have priority over a playoff club that loses in the Divisional playoff game, which in turn will have priority over a club that loses in the Conference Championship game. If two tied clubs exited the playoffs in the same round, the tie is broken by strength of schedule.
If any ties cannot be broken by strength of schedule, the divisional or conference tie breakers, whichever are applicable, are applied. Any ties that still exist are broken by a coin flip. | ekedolphin
Scrapple Level: 147
Posts: 2914/5747 EXP: 39214915 For next: 223280
Since: 12.1.02 From: Indianapolis, IN; now residing in Suffolk, VA
Since last post: 480 days Last activity: 4 days
| #10 Posted on 29.12.05 1458.10 Reposted on: 29.12.12 1458.23 | Gotta love the last couple weeks of the NFL regular season, 'cuz that's when all the numbers geeks show up. | Big Bad
Scrapple Level: 161
Posts: 3848/7062 EXP: 53443734 For next: 669499
Since: 4.1.02 From: Dorchester, Ontario
Since last post: 1917 days Last activity: 1486 days
| #11 Posted on 1.1.06 1951.03 Reposted on: 1.1.13 1951.16 | And the final word on the draft order (barring trades)
1. Houston 2. New Orleans 3. Tennessee 4. The Jets 5. Green Bay
San Fran and Oakland will be the 6 and 7 picks, but apparently the exact order hasn't been determined yet.
So Bush to Houston, from all accounts.....maybe the Packers draft AJ Hawk to shore up the defense? Or maybe trade down and amass as much help in the secondary as possible. | redsoxnation
Scrapple Level: 165
Posts: 4990/7534 EXP: 58154583 For next: 781222
Since: 24.7.02
Since last post: 3913 days Last activity: 3913 days
| #12 Posted on 1.1.06 2038.00 Reposted on: 1.1.13 2038.21 | Have to give the Texans credit: There were many chances over the last 5 weeks of the season where they could have screwed up and had a winning streak. They did slip up once against Arizona, but they had enough of a safety net to allow margin for error. Of course, if the Texans had screwed up and won in overtime against the 49ers, it would have been interesting to see whether the Saints would draft Bush while still having Deuce coming back from injury, or would Bush have pulled an Elway/E. Manning and demand not to be taken by the Saints. A few teams really screwed up there draft position the last week of the season (Packers, Jets, 49ers). | Big Bad
Scrapple Level: 161
Posts: 3849/7062 EXP: 53443734 For next: 669499
Since: 4.1.02 From: Dorchester, Ontario
Since last post: 1917 days Last activity: 1486 days
| #13 Posted on 2.1.06 0125.25 Reposted on: 2.1.13 0125.48 | If I'm the Texans, I'm trading the #1 pick for a Herschel-esque bucket of draft picks. They could take Bush and then try to deal Davis, but they'd get a lot less in return since the other teams would know the Texans would be stuck with two premier backs.
Saints need a QB badly, so Leinart (or Vince Young, if he comes out) would be the best bet. Leinart doesn't seem like the kind of jerk who would hold out ala Eli Manning, and if the Saints end up moving to LA anyway, that works out great for him since he's already the king of SoCal.
Titans and Jets both could use help at RB, so they might be candidates to trade up for Bush. Failing that, taking D'Brickashaw wouldn't be too sexy, but it would shore up their O-lines for the next decade.
(edited by Big Bad on 2.1.06 0225) | Mr. Boffo
Scrapple Level: 124
Posts: 1453/3844 EXP: 21356659 For next: 480003
Since: 24.3.02 From: Oshkosh, WI
Since last post: 3886 days Last activity: 3846 days
| #14 Posted on 2.1.06 0743.35 Reposted on: 2.1.13 0744.51 | Here's what the program I made spit out for all the non-playoff teams.
TEAM W SOS 1. HOU 2 137 2. NO 3 134 3. TEN 4 131 4. NYJ 4 135 5. GB 4 136 6T. OAK 4 138 (coin toss decides the #6 seed) 6T. SF 4 138 8. BUF 5 128 9. DET 5 129 10. ARI 5 130 11. STL 6 124 12. CLE 6 130 13. BAL 6 134 14. PHI 6 136 15. ATL 8 126 16. MIA 9 117 17. MIN 9 124 18. DAL 9 134 19. SD 9 143 20. KC 10 129
That's supposed to be all lined up, but I can never get the PRE tag to work. If a mod comes here and fixes it, let me know how to get it right. EDIT: Yeah, it looked fine at work (in IE), but at home (in Firefox), it's not lined up. Weird.
(edited by Mr. Boffo on 2.1.06 1740) | Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit Moderator Level: 142
Posts: 2877/5284 EXP: 34592930 For next: 375585
Since: 2.1.02 From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.
Since last post: 1666 days Last activity: 1666 days
| #15 Posted on 2.1.06 1412.18 Reposted on: 2.1.13 1412.39 | Originally posted by Mr. Boffo That's supposed to be all lined up, but I can never get the PRE tag to work. If a mod comes here and fixes it, let me know how to get it right.
I guess it doesn't look lined up for you, but it does for me.
So who do you all think gets Leinart first, the Titans or Jets? | It's False
Scrapple Level: 151
Posts: 1451/6155 EXP: 43033921 For next: 262655
Since: 20.6.02 From: I am the Tag Team Champions!
Since last post: 2189 days Last activity: 572 days
| #16 Posted on 2.1.06 1643.03 Reposted on: 2.1.13 1644.29 | Originally posted by Zeruel So who do you all think gets Leinart first, the Titans or Jets?
Jets. McNair will likely end up back in Tennessee, but after two shoulder surgeries, it'd be crazy to stick with Chad Pennington. It's time to hit the reset button and go with Leinart. | Jaguar
Knackwurst Level: 116
Posts: 3202/3284 EXP: 16927134 For next: 397011
Since: 23.1.02 From: In a Blue State finally
Since last post: 1894 days Last activity: 1894 days
| #17 Posted on 2.1.06 1955.06 Reposted on: 2.1.13 1955.25 | Originally posted by It's False
Originally posted by Zeruel So who do you all think gets Leinart first, the Titans or Jets?
Jets. McNair will likely end up back in Tennessee, but after two shoulder surgeries, it'd be crazy to stick with Chad Pennington. It's time to hit the reset button and go with Leinart.
Why would Anywhere-But-Nawlins pass up the change to dump Brooks? | ALL ORIGINAL POSTS IN THIS THREAD ARE NOW AVAILABLE |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |