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The 7 - Football - The State of the BCS - Week 7 Register and log in to post!
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Alpha Dog
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#21 Posted on 1.12.05 0000.01
Reposted on: 1.12.12 0000.10
    Originally posted by BigSteve
    That was Oregon's only loss while Notre Dame lost to a poor Michigan State team.

*snip*
    Originally posted by BigSteve
    After all, Oregon completely blew out Stanford while Notre Dame stole a win in the final minute. By that logic, Oregon is much better than ND.


In fairness, you're looking at these games as though the teams that they played were static; in reality, Michigan State and Stanford were both Jekyll-and-Hyde teams this season.

People forget, that Michigan State team was ROLLING and was getting some National Title hype after the Notre Dame win, they were that impressive, especially on offense. A tough loss to Michigan (in a game that Michigan had to have to save their season), and then the colossal meltdown at the end of the first half against Ohio State (in a game Michigan State was controlling) with the botched FG in the last play of the half, which shattered the Spartans' fragile psyche and sent their season into a tailspin. But lest we forget, before they imploded, that was an impressive Michigan State ballclub.

Similarly, the Stanford team that Oregon played on 10/1 was not the same Stanford team that Notre Dame played last week. Oregon got the shellshocked Cardinal that had lost to UC-Davis their previous game, with a gimpy Trent Edwards. Once Edwards got healthy (right around the ASU game on 10/22), Stanford was a brand new team, manhandling the Sun Devils before dominating and then giving away the big meltdown against UCLA.

An important thing to remember when evaluating teams, especially in short-season sports like college football, is that these teams are not just Strat-O-Matic cards, performing at a baseline level the entire season.

Believe me, I feel the pain of Oregon fans here, but Notre Dame is Notre Dame and Oregon is Oregon, and until that changes Oregon has to be appreciably and obviously better when competing directly against Notre Dame for bowl bids. Notre Dame is the college football institution, so of course they're going to get the nod when all things are equal.

Besides, if they played on neutral field, I know where my money is going (and it's not on the boys in the Nikes).
JayJayDean
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#22 Posted on 1.12.05 0034.46
Reposted on: 1.12.12 0035.17
    Originally posted by ShotGunShep
    The only difference is that ND lost to a bad Michigan State team. Advantage Oregon.


As much as I want to stick up for my Pac-10 brothers (even THOSE guys), I TOTALLY believe that on a neutral field Notre Dame beats Oregon. The Ducks would score, but they would give up a ton of points to Chaz Weis' offense, especially if Weis had four weeks to prepare for the game.

Personally, I'd be much more inclined to watch a Ducks-Nits or Ducks-Irish Fiesta Bowl than an Irish-Buckeyes matchup, but the sad fact for the Ducks is they picked a BAD year to be 10-1 with the number of more glamorous schools (ND, PSU, and OSU) they had to fight for a BCS-spot.

Of course, if USC or Texas loses (won't happen, but the point still stands) than this is all moot, anyway.
wmatistic
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#23 Posted on 1.12.05 0347.21
Reposted on: 1.12.12 0348.08
    Originally posted by BigSteve
      Originally posted by wmtastic
      The facts show ND had a slightly better season.


    What facts? Going back to strength of victory Oregon's nine I-A wins came against teams that were a combined 46-52 (.469). Notre Dame's nine I-A wins came against teams that were a combined 43-56 (.444). Both lost to #1 USC. That was Oregon's only loss while Notre Dame lost to a poor Michigan State team. Oregon beat four likely bowl teams (Fresno, Cal, Az St and Houston) while Notre Dame only beat three (Michigan, BYU, and Navy).

    The only advantage that I can see that says Notre Dame is definitvely better is that they almost beat USC while Oregon was blown out by the Trojans. It's important not to look to far into one single game though. After all, Oregon completely blew out Stanford while Notre Dame stole a win in the final minute. By that logic, Oregon is much better than ND. Of course that's foolish logic. If ND had beat USC, then I understand the argument, but as it stands it was a loss.

    Is there something I'm missing about why Notre Dame is better than Oregon (let alone Ohio State should Texas or LSU lose)? I guess I'm beating a dead horse at this point, but from what I see, if the stats show anything it's that Oregon had a slightly better season.


You're using generic statements to support your point though. yes Oregon beat "four likely bowl teams" but look at those teams. Houston is 6-5, ASU 6-5, Cal 7-4 and Fresno 8-3. I would say two of those are not worth mentioning and none is a top 20 BCS team. The only top 20 team they did play is USC, and they got whupped badly.

Notre Dame's win over Navy or BYU likewise aren't worth discussing, both are 6-5. But against top 20 teams they came within a hair of knocking off USC and beat a solid Michigan team.

So one win and one almost win versus no wins and a blowout loss. Those are the only games that matter in this discussion. It's not like either had a huge edge, but how you do against top competition matters most to me.
Whitebacon
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#24 Posted on 1.12.05 0439.43
Reposted on: 1.12.12 0440.15
    Originally posted by wmatistic
      Originally posted by Whitebacon
      They did manage to climb to 16 for a couple of weeks. That loss against Reno was excrutiating though.


    And Tennessee was ranked number four at one time this year too so beating them must mean more! Oregon just doesn't have a great case unfortunatly, cause I do like that team. And Notre Dame is overrated too, but still. The facts show ND had a slightly better season.

    Now Fresno State I love. Being an FSU guy I can say that it's great to see another team go with the old Bowden "King of the Road" strategy and build a team into something special out of nothing. With thier success and location I can see things getting better if they keep the same coaching staff around.


And honestly, I'd forgotten where they were ranked when we played them.

JJD: We would've too. And with neutral officials.

(edited by Whitebacon on 1.12.05 0241)
tarnish
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#25 Posted on 1.12.05 0808.24
Reposted on: 1.12.12 0808.52
    Originally posted by Alpha Dog
    Notre Dame is the college football institution, so of course they're going to get the nod when all things are equal.


Frankly, ND tends to get the nod even when all things aren't equal. I suspect one of the reasons for this oft-mentioned bias is because they're a guaranteed moneymaker. Not too many other teams have the same mindshare, especially nation-wide. Throw in the Charlie Weis feel-good story this year and it's that much worse.

And no, I'm not saying it's "fair". But lots of things about college football aren't fair. I've been a Notre Dame fan since childhood, so I'm not exactly disappointed about all of this, but I can understand those who feel their teams aren't getting a fair shake for bowl season--because they're probably not.

If you want to get a leg up on the Floridas and Michigans and Penn States and USCs and Notre Dames of the world, you've got to be that much better. And it's hard to get that much better when those teams also tend to win the cherry recruits exactly because of the storied nature of their programs. And the good coaches. And the loyal fans. And the TV contracts.

(all that said, I still think Notre Dame creams Oregon on any field this year)
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#26 Posted on 3.12.05 1546.43
Reposted on: 3.12.12 1548.48
I take back all the nice things I said about Fresno State. That game last night was disgusting.
redsoxnation
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#27 Posted on 3.12.05 2011.14
Reposted on: 3.12.12 2013.01
If the Holiday Bowl had a sense of humor, they would match up Colorado vs. UCLA in a Bizarro World Preview of Texas vs. USC. They need to put in a rule that if you lose your last 2 games 100-6, you forfeit bowl eligibility.
Texas Kelly
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#28 Posted on 3.12.05 2022.56
Reposted on: 3.12.12 2024.13
Looks like Georgia will be sliding into LSU's position. Virginia Tech/Florida State looks *ugly* right now - who knows what will happen there.

I'm guessing the Fiesta takes Notre Dame, so that means we should be seeing USC v. Texas (Rose), Notre Dame v. West Virginia (Fiesta), Georgia v. Ohio State (Sugar), and Virginia Tech v. Penn State (Orange), assuming things stand as they are now.

I missed one other possibility in the event that Penn State goes first, and that's that the Fiesta puts Notre Dame third on its list and opts to take Oregon to face Penn State rather than be stuck with West Virginia (which would move West Virginia into the Sugar to face Georgia and shut Ohio State out). I don't think this will happen though since I'm pretty sure the Fiesta won't pass on Notre Dame (which would force the previously stated scenario under BCS rules, since Ohio State would HAVE to go to the Sugar since it would have to be put third on all bowl lists).

(edited by Texas Kelly on 3.12.05 2126)
BigSteve
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#29 Posted on 3.12.05 2208.40
Reposted on: 3.12.12 2208.44
I'm hoping now that there will be three (and depending on how far VT falls maybe four) At-Large teams ahead of ND for two spots that maybe they'll be on the outside looking into the BCS. I'm not optimistic though.
Roy.
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#30 Posted on 3.12.05 2228.26
Reposted on: 3.12.12 2228.38
I think anybody who thinks that Notre Dame isn't getting a BCS game is fooling themselves. Yes, there are all the reasons listed above as to why to exclude them, but they bring money and fans wherever they play, and the rules state that they are BCS eligible. ABC, chambers of commerce, and the BCS people themselves are probably salivating at the huge amounts of ratings and money that Notre Dame fans are going to bring after a long BCS hiatus. The same applies to Penn State fans, too, I guess.

My credit card will be screaming in pain this time tomorrow night. I'm booking my flight and condo for wherever Penn State's going right after the selection show.
Texas Kelly
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#31 Posted on 3.12.05 2231.58
Reposted on: 3.12.12 2233.37

    I'm hoping now that there will be three (and depending on how far VT falls maybe four) At-Large teams ahead of ND for two spots that maybe they'll be on the outside looking into the BCS. I'm not optimistic though.

Not happening. All that's going to happen is that LSU & Virginia Tech will fall out of the BCS completely, while Georgia & Florida State slide into the traditional spots that they would've taken. The only issue is whether Oregon is going to leapfrog Ohio State, and as I said a few posts ago, the only way that happens is if the Fiesta passes on Notre Dame for Penn State.


    My credit card will be screaming in pain this time tomorrow night. I'm booking my flight and condo for wherever Penn State's going right after the selection show.

Make your reservations for Miami. I'm almost sure that's where they're headed, unless Tempe decides to pass on Notre Dame (which I don't think they will).

(edited by Texas Kelly on 3.12.05 2346)
BigSteve
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#32 Posted on 3.12.05 2241.36
Reposted on: 3.12.12 2242.26
As much as I've argued against ND, I can certainly see why they're going to be in the BCS, and I really can't say I blame the parties involved. After all, the point of the BCS was only to get 1 vs 2 rather than the top 8 in the four bowls.

Looking ahead, can anyone explain how the format changes after this year with the National Title game being added? Will teams play in two bowls if they play in the title game? I looked at the BCS website but they were a bit unclear.
Texas Kelly
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#33 Posted on 3.12.05 2250.10
Reposted on: 3.12.12 2250.16
    Originally posted by BigSteve
    As much as I've argued against ND, I can certainly see why they're going to be in the BCS, and I really can't say I blame the parties involved. After all, the point of the BCS was only to get 1 vs 2 rather than the top 8 in the four bowls.

    Looking ahead, can anyone explain how the format changes after this year with the National Title game being added? Will teams play in two bowls if they play in the title game? I looked at the BCS website but they were a bit unclear.

I have to do some research on this subject once the semester's over, but I don't believe teams will be playing in two bowls. What I recall is that the BCS will select #1 & #2 like they've always done, and the national championship game will be staged separately from the four traditional bowls (at one of the traditional bowl's locations, which would rotate from year to year). Meaning that once every four years, Miami, Tempe, New Orleans (once the Superdome is rebuilt), & Pasadena would get to host TWO big money bowls.

The four traditional bowls will still get their traditional tie-ins (assuming that they're not taken for the championship game) and then the field gets filled in like now, only with three at-larges plus a guaranteed spot to a conference winner of a non-BCS conference.

LATE BREAKING UPDATE
After hashing things out, it appears that based on LSU & Virginia Tech's losses today, Ohio State & Notre Dame will move into positions on the BCS rankings that would automatically secure them at-large berths. (Ohio State is projected to finish fourth, making their bid automatic under the third of the BCS automatic qualification bylaws; Notre Dame is projected to finish sixth, making their bid automatic under the non-BCS-conference rule that got Utah into the BCS last year.)

This provides the BCS with a great deal of flexibility in making pairings, since no teams in the pool would be subject to the 1-2 rule that limits how the bowls can list their preferences.

My projections for tomorrow's selections are as follows:

Rose Bowl: Southern California v. Texas
Orange Bowl: Florida State v. Penn State
Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame v. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Georgia v. West Virginia

USC & Texas go into the title game; FSU & Georgia go into their traditional spots; Notre Dame is selected as the Fiesta host; the bowl rankings (and allocations) go in order according to the rankings (Penn State to the Orange, Ohio State to the Fiesta, West Virginia to the Sugar).

(edited by Texas Kelly on 4.12.05 0113)
ShotGunShep
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#34 Posted on 4.12.05 0035.16
Reposted on: 4.12.12 0037.18
Fucking Hokies.
Mr. Boffo
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#35 Posted on 4.12.05 0051.57
Reposted on: 4.12.12 0051.59
    Originally posted by Texas Kelly
    LATE BREAKING UPDATE


Darn. You beat me. I was just working on that same thing. With my (possibly not at all accurate) projections, I see the Top 12 being like this:
USC, Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Georgia, Miami(FL), Auburn, LSU, Virginia Tech, West Virginia.

USC, Texas, Penn State, Georgia, Florida State, and West Virginia are the conference champions, and as you noted Ohio State and Notre Dame are guaranteed according to the selection rules. #5 Oregon is out of luck.

EDIT: Except I don't see why "Any team that is guaranteed a berth in a BCS bowl game and that has not already placed in such a game must be listed among such bowl game's first two selections." still doesn't affect the outcome. If the Fiesta picks Notre Dame, the 3 teams left are Penn State, West Virginia, and Ohio State. Penn State and West Virginia have to be 1 & 2, which puts Penn State in the Orange, West Virginia in the Fiesta Bowl, and Ohio State in the Sugar.

(edited by Mr. Boffo on 4.12.05 0058)
BigSteve
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#36 Posted on 4.12.05 0112.31
Reposted on: 4.12.12 0112.53
I caught College Gameday final tonight after the dust had settled. I didn't catch all of it, but Fowler/Corso/Herbstreit were talking as if OSU vs ND in the Fiesta Bowl was a done deal. I think that Texas Kelly's predictions are right on the money.
Battlezone
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#37 Posted on 4.12.05 0425.05
Reposted on: 4.12.12 0426.38
Dammit, I just found out I have a seat in a luxury suite waiting for me in the Georgia Dome if OSU lands in the Sugar, so I hope you're wrong. Why would the Fiesta want Ohio State again, anyway? They were there in back-to-back years just a couple of years ago.
redsoxnation
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#38 Posted on 4.12.05 0742.27
Reposted on: 4.12.12 0742.37
    Originally posted by Battlezone
    Dammit, I just found out I have a seat in a luxury suite waiting for me in the Georgia Dome if OSU lands in the Sugar, so I hope you're wrong. Why would the Fiesta want Ohio State again, anyway? They were there in back-to-back years just a couple of years ago.







Because Notre Dame vs. Ohio State would be the highest rated non-National Title Bowl Game of the year, while Notre Dame vs. West Virginia would not have that appeal. Remember, the Fiesta is in the traditional Rose Bowl TV slot, and they get two marquee national teams that rarely face each other. Similar circumstances are why Oregon's last Fiesta Bowl appearance had higher ratings than Ohio State's, as Oregon faced Colorado when the Rose had the national title game, thus giving the Fiesta the Rose slot, while Ohio State played Kansas State in a Fiesta that was non New Year's Day/non national title, thus not bringing in the casual viewers.
In a way, the Orange actually catches a break with Florida State facing Penn State. IT won't be the dueling Top 5 match-up that Va. Tech vs. Penn State would have been, but the Bowden vs. Paterno storyline could draw in additional viewers for the game played on January 3rd, played after a weekend of NFL football, a day of bowl games, and a day before the national title game between 2 marquee programs.
And Roy., book Ft. Lauderdale instead of Miami. Cheaper to fly into Ft. Lauderdale than Miami, cheaper to stay in Ft. Lauderdale than Miami, and closer proximity to the stadium. If you do go to Miami, Happy Hour is much easier on the wallet than South Beach.

Edit: On the Florida State vs. Virginia Tech game: Was the personal foul penalty committed by Va. Tech when Florida State was taking a knee one of the dumbest penalties in the annals of college football? The way the clock was set up, I figured there was going to be about a 15-20 second diffential in the play and game clocks come 4th down, thus forcing Florida State to punt or hand the ball over at the 45. Considering FSU was doing everything possible to achieve an historic come from ahead defeat and with Va. Tech's punt blocking capabilities, Tech still had a punchers shot. And, if they turn it over at the 45, Vick did have a strong enough arm to reach on a Hail Mary.

(edited by redsoxnation on 4.12.05 1021)
Texas Kelly
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#39 Posted on 4.12.05 0844.09
Reposted on: 4.12.12 0844.18
    Originally posted by Mr. Boffo
    Except I don't see why "Any team that is guaranteed a berth in a BCS bowl game and that has not already placed in such a game must be listed among such bowl game's first two selections." still doesn't affect the outcome. If the Fiesta picks Notre Dame, the 3 teams left are Penn State, West Virginia, and Ohio State. Penn State and West Virginia have to be 1 & 2, which puts Penn State in the Orange, West Virginia in the Fiesta Bowl, and Ohio State in the Sugar.

Since Ohio State is guaranteed a berth in a BCS bid by virtue of their ranking, this means that all the teams left would be guaranteed a position, and since there's nothing in the bylaws that says how to handle such a situation, that means the bowls can rank the three teams in any order of their choosing.

If Ohio State wasn't ranked fourth, you'd be spot on - they'd have to go to the Sugar since their position would no longer be guaranteed (and hence, they'd be subject to be placed third on all lists under the 1-2 rule).
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#40 Posted on 4.12.05 1521.39
Reposted on: 4.12.12 1522.11
    Originally posted by Texas Kelly
    If Ohio State wasn't ranked fourth, you'd be spot on - they'd have to go to the Sugar since their position would no longer be guaranteed (and hence, they'd be subject to be placed third on all lists under the 1-2 rule).


No, that's flat wrong. Here's how it most likely would've broken down:

Fiesta: Notre Dame, Penn State, Ohio State
Orange: Penn State, W. Va., Ohio State
Sugar: Some random combination that wouldn't have mattered.

So, Fiesta gets No. 1 and No. 3. Notre Dame and Ohio State.
Orange gets Penn State.
Sugar gets W. Va.

See, there were four teams with flexibility. The Fiesta only had to pick three. And one of them did not have to be West Virginia. And the Orange would go for Penn State first, because everybody and their brother knew that Notre Dame was going to be the Fiesta's first pick. And, the Sugar has the last pick. The Fiesta gets two before the Sugar gets its selection because the Fiesta lost its host team. So the order would be Fiesta, Orange, Fiesta, Sugar.
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