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The 7 - Football - College Football End of Year Possibilities Register and log in to post!
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Mr. Boffo
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#1 Posted on 28.11.05 0236.45
Reposted on: 28.11.12 0236.47
The conference championships finished up like this:
ACC - Virginia Tech vs. Florida State on December 3rd
Big 12 - Texas vs. Colorado on December 3rd
Big East - West Virginia
Big Ten - Penn State & Ohio State share championship (tiebreaker to Penn State for BCS Bowl Bid)
C-USA - Central Florida vs. Tulsa on December 3rd
MAC - Akron vs. Northern Illinois on December 1st
MWC - TCU. They should go to the Emerald Bowl, but instead are playing in the EV1.net Houston Bowl. The Emerald Bowl slot goes to Utah.
Pac 10 - USC wins championship outright with a win over UCLA. Otherwise, they share it with Oregon and UCLA (tiebreaker goes to USC for BCS Bowl Bid)
SEC - LSU vs. Georgia on December 3rd
Sun Belt - Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafeyette share championship. Tiebreaker goes to Arkansas State, which gets the Wyndham New Orleans Bowl Bid.
WAC - Boise State and Nevada (and Fresno State if they beat Louisiana Tech on December 2nd) are co-champions. If Fresno State loses, Boise State gets the MPC Computers Bowl Bid. Otherwise, the bowl will have its choice of Boise State and Nevada (Fresno State has accepted a bid for the AutoZone Liberty Bowl).

Next, the list of bowl-eligible teams (Underlined teams are the ones likely to be available for the at-large bids):
ACC (8) - Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Florida State, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Virginia, NC State
Big 12 (8) - Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa State, Missouri, Kansas
Big East (4) - West Virginia, Louisville, South Florida, Rutgers (UConn can become bowl eligible with a win over Louisville on December 3rd)
Big Ten (7) - Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa
C-USA (6) - Central Florida, Tulsa, UTEP, Southern Miss, Memphis, Houston
MAC (7) - Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan, Miami (OH), Akron, Bowling Green, Central Michigan
MWC (5) - TCU, BYU, Colorado State, Utah, New Mexico,
Pac 10 (5) - USC, Oregon, UCLA, California, Arizona State
SEC (6) - LSU, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina
Sun Belt (2) - Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafeyette
WAC (4) - Boise State, Nevada, Fresno State, Louisiana Tech
Indepedent (2) - Notre Dame, Navy
That's a total of 64 teams going for 56 slots. There are 9 bowl eligible teams going for the spot in the Motor City Bowl. News articles say they have been having talks with Nevada (which would move Louisana Tech to the Hawai'i Bowl) and South Florida (which is only possible if UConn becomes bowl eligible, which would put Rutgers in the Meineke Car Care Bowl and UConn in the Insight Bowl).


With that said, here are the bowl projections at this time. I'm not exactly sure about the bowl priority in some conferences, nor can I predict when a bowl might choose to take a lower ranked team than the one available. This list is subject to change based on the outcome of the conference championship games listed above.

Wyndham New Orleans Bowl - Memphis (C-USA 5) vs. Arkansas State (Sun Belt 1)
GMAC Bowl - Tulsa (C-USA 2) vs. Toledo (MAC 2)
Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl - Arizona State (Pac 10 #5) vs. BYU (MWC 2)
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl - Colorado State (MWC 3) vs. Navy (Independent At-Large)
PlainsCapital Fort Worth Bowl - Southern Miss (C-USA 4) vs. Kansas (Big 12 8)
Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl - UTEP (C-USA 3) vs. Nevada (WAC 2)
Motor City Bowl - Northern Illinois (MAC 1) vs. At-Large (supposed to be Big 10 7)
Champ Sports Bowl - Boston College (ACC 4) vs. Missouri (Big 12 7)
Insight Bowl - Rutgers (Big East 4) vs. California (Pac 10 4)
MPC Computers Bowl - Boise State (WAC 1) vs. Clemson (ACC 6)
Mastercard Alamo Bowl - Minnesota (Big 10 4) vs. Colorado (Big 12 4)
Emerald Bowl - Utah (MWC 1 [in place of TCU, who choose the EV1.net Houston Bowl instead]) vs. Virginia (ACC 7, was originally Pac 10 6)
Pacific Life Holiday Bowl - Oklahoma (Big 12 3) vs. Oregon (Pac 10 2)
Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl - Iowa (Big 10 6) vs. NC State (ACC 8, originally SEC 7)
Independence Bowl - Nebraska (Big 12 5) vs. South Carolina (SEC 6)
Vitalis Sun Bowl - Northwestern (Big 10 5) vs. UCLA (Pac 10 3)
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl - Florida State (ACC 3) vs. Florida (SEC 5) (*** this outcome won't happen. Maybe Georgia and Florida switch spots? ***)
Meineke Car Care Bowl - Georgia Tech (ACC 5) vs. South Florida (Big East 3)
EV1.net Houston Bowl - Iowa State (Big 12 6) vs. TCU (MWC-At Large, originally SEC 8)
AutoZone Liberty Bowl - Central Florida (C-USA 1) vs. Fresno State (WAC-At Large)
Toyota Gator Bowl - Miami (FL) (ACC 2) vs. Louisville (Big East 2)
Outback Bowl - Michigan (Big 10 3) vs. Georgia (SEC 4)
SBC Cotton Bowl - Texas Tech (Big 12 2) vs. Alabama (SEC 3)
Capital One Bowl - Wisconsin (Big 10 2) vs. Auburn (SEC 2)
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl - Penn State (BCS-Big Ten)/Notre Dame (BCS-At Large) vs. West Virginia (BCS-Big East)
Nokia Sugar Bowl - LSU (BCS-SEC) vs. Ohio State (BCS-At Large)
FedEx Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech (BCS-ACC) vs. Penn State (BCS-Big Ten)/Notre Dame (BCS-At Large)
Rose Bowl - USC (BCS 1-Pac 10) vs. Texas (BCS 2-Big 12)

Here is last week's BCS rankings. None of the Top 12 teams lost, so I don't expect to see any changes in the rankings for this week. Underlined have already clinched a BCS spot.

Rank Team BCS Average Game Remaining
1. USC .9807 vs. (12) UCLA
2. Texas .9791 vs. (NR) Colorado in Big 12 Championship
3. Penn State .8900 N/A
4. LSU .8372 vs. (15) Georgia in SEC Championship
5. Virginia Tech .8294 vs. (NR) Florida State in ACC Championship
6. Ohio State .7841 N/A
7. Oregon .7340 N/A
8. Notre Dame .6908 N/A
9. Miami (FL) .6718 N/A
10. Auburn .6333 N/A
11. West Virginia .5813 vs. (NR) South Florida
12. UCLA .5787 vs. USC
13. TCU .4547 N/A

Other BCS possibilties:
I have assumed that the #1 at large bid will go to Notre Dame. If they move up to #6, that spot is guaranteed to them.
A UCLA loss could move TCU up to #12, which would make them eligible. However, if UCLA lost and Georgia beat LSU, then Georgia (currently 15th) could move ahead of TCU and into the #12 spot.
If a team other than Ohio State is chosen for the second at large bid, then Ohio State moves into the Capital One Bowl, and every other Big Ten team moves down one bowl (eliminating the at-large bid in the Motor City Bowl).
If USC loses: USC has clinched the Pac 10's BCS bid. If they lose and fall below #2 in the BCS rankings, though, they would fall out of the championship game. Penn State and USC would then most likely switch spots, with Penn State going to the Rose Bowl, and USC competing with Notre Dame for the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl bid, with the loser going to the FedEx Orange Bowl.
If Texas loses: Colorado would get the Big 12's automatic bid, and would be slotted in the Tositos Fiesta Bowl. If Texas dropped any spots in the BCS rankings, then Penn State would move to the title game, and Texas would probably have to fight for the #2 at large bid.
If both Texas and USC lose: the top two teams will play for the national title. This could be USC & Texas (neither falls any spots), USC & Penn State, Texas & Penn State, Penn State vs. LSU, or even theoretically something like Penn State vs. Virginia Tech (USC, Texas, and LSU all lose, Virginia Tech moves up to #2) or Penn State vs. Ohio State (USC, Texas, LSU, and Virginia Tech all lose, Ohio State moves up to #2), but the odds of both Texas and USC falling below LSU, Virginia Tech, or Ohio State seem unlikely.
If LSU loses: Georgia would replace LSU in the Nokia Sugar Bowl, and LSU would have to remain in the BCS Top 12 to have a chance for the #2 at large bid.
If Virginia Tech loses: Florida State would replace Virginia Tech in the Fedex Orange Bowl. Virginia Tech would have to stay in the BCS Top 12 to have a chance for the #2 at large bid.
EDIT: Made a bunch of changes. Found out nearly all of the at large spots have been filled, so I updated those matchups.

(edited by Mr. Boffo on 28.11.05 0329)

(edited by CRZ on 28.11.05 1011)
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redsoxnation
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#2 Posted on 28.11.05 0854.07
Reposted on: 28.11.12 0856.25
The game that holds up hold all possibilities for this week is USC vs. UCLA. UCLA did lose by less than a touchdown last year, and they can score. Of course, they can't play defense either, but they have had 3 weeks to prepare for the game.
If UCLA springs the upset, then the SEC Title game becomes Must View TV, as an LSU win over Georgia in Atlanta could vault them past Penn State to #2. If the computers don't respect a team that beats Florida, Alabama, Auburn and Georgia, something is seriously wrong with those computers. Also, a 1-loss UCLA win to stop USC's undefeated streak could vault them into the #2 at large big spot.
After laying down like dogs last week at home against a mediocre at best Nebraska, I don't see any chance short of the avian flu spreading through the Texas locker room of Colorado beating Texas, especially after A&M gave them a scare last week.
Unless Florida State has done the best job of playing possum in football history, they aren't beating Virginia Tech.
West Virginia is in the Sugar Bowl.
If anyone doubts whether the Fiesta will take a 9-2 Notre Dame team, look back to the '94 season when they took a 6-4-1 Notre Dame. And I think the only way Ohio State doesn't face Notre Dame, barring avian flu striking Texas, is if UCLA beats USC and UCLA goes to the Fiesta as an at large to face Notre Dame.

Broncolanche
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#3 Posted on 28.11.05 1033.03
Reposted on: 28.11.12 1034.41
I love how Colorado backed in to the Big XII Championship. What Nebraska did to them this past Friday will pale in comparison to what Texas will do to them.
dunkndollaz
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#4 Posted on 28.11.05 1040.52
Reposted on: 28.11.12 1046.49
    Originally posted by Broncolanche
    I love how Colorado backed in to the Big XII Championship. What Nebraska did to them this past Friday will pale in comparison to what Texas will do to them.


And Texas still has an axe to grind with CU for the 2001 Big 12 Championship game.....

The best bowl game on the schedule, as always, is the MPC Computers Bowl (formerly the Humanitarian Bowl) - doesn't matter who is playing because it is played on the BLUE field of Boise State !
Mr. Boffo
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#5 Posted on 28.11.05 1343.14
Reposted on: 28.11.12 1345.04
This week's BCS rankings are out, and as expected, nothing changed in the top 12. Georgia did move past TCU for 13, though.

    Originally posted by redsexnation

    West Virginia is in the Sugar Bowl.
    If anyone doubts whether the Fiesta will take a 9-2 Notre Dame team, look back to the '94 season when they took a 6-4-1 Notre Dame. And I think the only way Ohio State doesn't face Notre Dame, barring avian flu striking Texas, is if UCLA beats USC and UCLA goes to the Fiesta as an at large to face Notre Dame.


I respectfully disagree.
    Originally posted by http://www.bcsfootball.org/index2.cfm?page=eligibility

    The Big 12 championship will host the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (January 2), the Southeastern Conference champion shall host the Nokia Sugar Bowl (January 2), and the Atlantic Coast Conference champion will host the FedEx Orange Bowl (Jan. 3) should those teams not be ranked No. 1 or No. 2.

That's LSU in the Sugar Bowl, and Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. The Fiesta Bowl loses Texas because they're playing in the national championship.
    Originally posted by same page again

    If a BCS bowl loses a host team to the national championship game, then that BCS bowl shall be the first to select a replacement team from the pool of eligible teams.

That's the Fiesta Bowl. They can choose from Penn State, West Virginia, or any of the at large teams (currently Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Miami, Auburn, or UCLA). Penn State and Notre Dame are the two most attractive teams out of those. I have no idea which they would pick.

    Originally posted by same page, last time

    Any BCS bowl game(s) still remaining unfilled will submit a listing of its top three team selections to fill its at-large slot. Any team that is guaranteed a berth in a BCS bowl game and that has not already placed in such a game must be listed among such bowl game's first two selections. Each BCS bowl will then be given its highest preference of teams.
    For the bowls not hosting the national championship game this season, the following selection priority will apply if necessary:
    1. FedEx Orange Bowl
    2. Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
    3. Nokia Sugar Bowl

The Orange Bowl gets the next choice, and I expect them to choose the team that the Fiesta Bowl doesn't take. So that eliminates Penn State and Notre Dame.
Notice what I underlined in that section. West Virginia can be at most 2nd among the 3 teams (once the Fiesta makes their first choice). Depending on whether the Fiesta takes Notre Dame or Penn State, I see two different possible outcomes.
If the Fiesta Bowl picks Notre Dame: The three teams are Penn State, West Virginia, and an at large team. According to that rule, Penn State and West Virginia must be first and second on all 3 bowls lists. Penn State goes to the Orange, West Virginia goes to the Fiesta, and the Sugar Bowl has their pick of at-large teams.
But What If The Fiesta Bowl picks Penn State: The three teams are West Virginia, and two at large teams (presumably Notre Dame is one of them). And West Virginia must be one of the top 2 on each bowl's ballot (probably 2nd on all of them). The Orange would no doubt choose Notre Dame. If the Fiesta Bowl was smart, they'd pick a different at large team (not Notre Dame) as their #1 choice. Because if they pick Notre Dame, then they'll get their 2nd choice, West Virginia. But if say Oregon is their first choice, then they'd get them, and West Virginia would by default go to the Sugar Bowl.

To summarize:
Rose: USC vs. Texas
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Notre Dame or Penn State
Sugar: LSU vs. At Large team or West Virginia (West Virginia only possible if Fiesta picks Penn State and lists an at large team #1)
Fiesta: Notre Dame or Penn State vs. West Virginia or an at large team (at large only possible if Fiesta chooses Penn State).

So the Fiesta has to decide if they'd rather have Notre Dame vs. West Virginia or Penn State vs. Oregon, Miami, Auburn, or UCLA (they wouldn't do Penn State vs. Ohio State). Frankly, given the rules the bowls have, Notre Dame vs. Ohio State just isn't possible.

(edited by Mr. Boffo on 28.11.05 1344)
Quezzy
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#6 Posted on 28.11.05 1404.15
Reposted on: 28.11.12 1405.23
    Originally posted by Mr. Boffo
    Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl - Florida State (ACC 3) vs. Florida (SEC 5) (*** this outcome won't happen. Maybe Georgia and Florida switch spots? ***)


From what I hear, the Peach Bowl is going to pass on Florida and get South Carolina instead. My guess is for a Spurrier vs. Bowden matchup. Florida would then be in the Independence Bowl, my understanding was they would play Oklahoma but I don't know how they figured that if the Independence Bowl gets the Big 12 #5.
Mr. Boffo
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#7 Posted on 30.11.05 0857.06
Reposted on: 30.11.12 0857.06
Someone asked me about the average payout for each conference.
Average Payout Per Conference Per Team
ACC-$1.75 million (12 teams)
Big 12-$2 million (12 teams)
Big East-$2.14 million (8 teams)
Big Ten-$3.5 million (11 teams)
C-USA-$362,500 (12 teams)
MAC-$127,500 (12 teams)
MWC-$344,444 (9 teams)
Pac 10-$1.89 million (10 teams)
SEC-$2.25 million (12 teams)
Sun Belt-$93,750 (8 teams)
WAC-$311,111 (9 teams)

Navy-$750,000
Notre Dame-$14 million

The Big Ten's big money comes from projecting two teams into the BCS games. Otherwise it would be at about $2.32 million, which is still first, but not by nearly as much.
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