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The 7 - Football - The State of the BCS - Week 4
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Texas Kelly
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#1 Posted on 7.11.05 2335.52
Reposted on: 7.11.12 2337.02
THE STATE OF THE BCS - Week 4

CURRENT BCS STANDINGS
The bracketed sequence following a team's name in the BCS standings refers to (in order) the team's Harris Interactive poll ranking, the team's USA Today coaches' poll ranking, and the average of the six computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin, and Peter Wolfe). The average of these three rankings determines the team's BCS ranking.

1. Southern California [1, 1, 2]
2. Texas [2, 2, 1]
3. Alabama [4, 3, T4] (+1)
4. Miami [3, 4, T4] (+2)
5. Penn State [6, 6, 3] (+2)
6. Virginia Tech [8, 8, 6] (-3)
7. Louisiana State [5, 5, T13] (+1)
8. Ohio State [10, 10, 7] (+2)
9. Georgia [9, 9, T12] (+2)
10. Oregon [11, 11, 8] (+3)
11. Notre Dame [7, 7, 18] (+3)
12. Texas Tech [12, 13, 10] (+3)
...
14. West Virginia [17, 15, T13] (+3)

-----

Lots of shifts in the standings this week thanks to losses by UCLA, Florida State, and (most surprisingly) Virginia Tech. With Alabama having many obstacles standing between them and an unbeaten record (obstacles I don't believe that they can completely conquer), USC & Texas are now your clear #1 and #2, and at this point the BCS just needs to concern itself with getting its secondary job (getting the other bowl matchups put together) done right.

Notre Dame rose in the right direction this week, but they've still got a long way to go to get in position for a potential berth. Basically, at least three of the five teams ahead of them need to lose (while they win out) in order for them to have a realistic shot.

PROJECTED BERTHS
Projected automatic conference berths are based on a team's record in conference play. Mandated conference tiebreakers are used where possible to break ties for automatic conference berths. In the case of a tie that cannot be broken, the tied teams' BCS ranking is used to break the tie.

ACC: Miami
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Penn State
Big 12: Texas
Pac-10: Southern California
SEC: Alabama
At-Large #1: Virginia Tech (ACC)
At-Large #2: Louisiana State (SEC)

-----

The SEC takes center stage this week with two gigantic marquee matchups, as Alabama puts its national championship onlooker status up against LSU and Georgia tries to get back on track against Auburn. I'm going with the road team in both games, as LSU's offense is somewhat stronger than Alabama's, and I don't have confidence in Shockley being the same player he was earlier in the season against a team that he'd likely have trouble with even if he was at full speed. (But this is the guy who predicted that Virginia Tech would destroy Miami... so why would you listen to me?)

PROJECTED MATCHUPS
Rose Bowl: Southern California v. Texas
Fiesta Bowl: Penn State v. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. Virginia Tech
Orange Bowl: Miami v. Louisiana State

Pac-10 champion Southern California & Big 12 champion Texas are automatically placed into the Rose Bowl due to their #1 & #2 rankings, respectively. ACC champion Miami is placed into the Orange Bowl and SEC champion Alabama is placed into the Sugar Bowl due to traditional conference tie-ins. The only bowl to lose a traditional tie-in is the Fiesta Bowl (Big 12 champion Texas) so it gets first choice of the remaining teams. Usually, the selections to fill the remaining slots after the national championship game and the traditional conference tie-ins are done in accord with BCS rankings, meaning that the Fiesta would select Big Ten champion Penn State as its first representative.

Priority for the remaining selections is based on a bowl's payout and its priority stature in previous years. (Each bowl submits a list of its top three teams, and the bowl is given the highest-listed team available based on the bowl's priority.) The BCS has established the following priority order based on these factors for this year's bowls:

1. Orange Bowl
2. Fiesta Bowl
3. Sugar Bowl

By rule, if a conference champion is available for this last stage of allocations, they cannot be ranked third on the list that a bowl submits. Since Big East champion West Virginia is the only conference champion not allocated and trails ACC at-large Virginia Tech and SEC at-large Louisiana State in the BCS rankings, they would be ranked second on all lists and thus be allocated to the Fiesta Bowl. Finally, since BCS representatives would not want to match teams from the same conference, Louisiana State would be selected by the Orange Bowl and Virginia Tech would be selected by the Sugar Bowl, despite their BCS rankings dictating the opposite.
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Zeruel
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#2 Posted on 8.11.05 0433.57
Reposted on: 8.11.12 0445.04
Here's an in-depth look at the BCS confs. Next week I'll remove eliminated and bowl ineligible teams from the update, but keep bowl eligible teams

Records (conf, overall, and div if there is one);



ACC - Atlantic (top 5, WF out)
1. FSU (5-2, 7-2, 3-1) Clinched Atlantic Title
2. BC (3-3, 6-3, 2-1)
3. Cle (3-4, 5-4, 2-2)
4. MD (2-3, 4-4, 1-2)
5. NCSU (2-4, 4-4, 1-2)

ACC - Coastal (top 5, Duke out)
1. VT (5-1, 8-1, 2-1) *plays VA, UNC
2. UM (4-1, 7-1, 3-0) *3 conf games left
3. GT (4-2, 6-2, 2-1) *plays VA, Miami
4. NC (3-2, 4-4, 1-2) *3 conf games left
5. VA (2-3, 5-3, 1-1) *3 conf games left



Big East (top 7, Syracuse out)
1. WV (4-0, 7-1) *plays Cin, Pitt, USF
2t RU (3-2, 6-3) *plays Lou, Cin; lost to WV
2t Pitt (3-2, 4-5) *plays UConn, WV
4t Lou (2-2, 6-2) *plays Rut, 'Cuse, UConn
4t Cin (2-2, 4-4) *3 conf games left
5. USF (2-1, 4-3) *4 conf games left
6. UConn (1-3, 4-4) *3 conf games left



Big Ten (top 9, Illinois, Purdue out)
1. PSU (6-1, 9-1) *beat OSU, Wisc; plays MSU;
2. OSU (5-1, 7-2) *lost to PSU; plays Minn, Mich
3. Wisc (5-2, 8-2) *lost to PSU; plays Iowa; not OSU
4t Mich (4-2, 6-3) *Beat PSU; plays Ind, OSU
4t NW'ern (4-2, 6-3) *plays OSU, Ill
6t Iowa (3-3, 5-4) Eliminated from Big Ten title
6t Minn (3-3, 6-3) Eliminated from Big Ten title
8. MSU (2-4, 5-4) Eliminated from Big Ten title
9. Ind (1-5, 4-5) Eliminated from Big Ten title



Big XII - North
1. CO (5-1, 7-2, 3-0) *2 conf games left; Clinches with a win over ISU
2t ISU (3-3, 6-3, 1-2) *2 conf games left
2t Mis (3-3, 5-4, 2-2) *2 conf games left
4t Kansas (2-4, 5-4, 2-3) Eliminated from North title
4t Neb (2-4, 5-4, 1-2) Eliminated from North title
6. KSU (1-5, 4-5, 1-2) Eliminated from North title


Big XII - South
1. TX (6-0, 9-0, 4-0) *plays Kansas, TAMU
2. TXT (5-1, 8-1, 2-1) *plays OKSU, OK
3. OK (4-1, 5-3, 1-1) *plays TAMU, TXT, OKSU
4. TAMU (3-3, 5-4, 2-1) Eliminated from South title
5. Bay (1-5, 4-5, 0-4) Eliminated from South title
6. OKS (0-5, 3-5, 0-3) Eliminated from South title


Pac-10 (top 7, Arizona, Washington, WSU out)
1. USC (6-0, 9-0) *plays Cal, UCLA, Stan; beat OR; DNP ORSU
2t UCLA (5-1, 8-1) *plays ASU, USC; DNP OR
2t OR (5-1, 8-1) *plays WSU, ORSU; lost to USC; DNP UCLA
4t Stan (3-3, 4-4) Eliminated from Pac-10 title
4t Cal (3-3, 6-3) Eliminated from Pac-10 title
4t ORSU (3-3, 5-4) Eliminated from Pac-10 title
4t ASU (3-3, 5-4) Eliminated from Pac-10 title


SEC - East (top 5, KY out)
1. GA (5-1, 7-1, 3-1) *plays Auburn, KY
2. FL (5-2, 7-2, 4-0) *plays SC; beat GA
3. SC (4-3, 6-3, 3-1) *plays FL
4. Van (2-4, 4-5, 0-3) Eliminated from East title
5. TN (2-4, 3-5, 0-3) *Eliminated from East title


SEC - West (top 4, MSU, Ark out)
1. Ala (6-0, 9-0, 3-0) *plays LSU, Auburn
2. Aub (5-1, 7-2, 3-1) *plays GA, Alabama
3. LSU (4-1, 7-1, 2-0) *plays Alabama, Miss, Ark
4. MS (1-4, 3-5, 0-2) Eliminated from West title
redsoxnation
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#3 Posted on 8.11.05 0923.25
Reposted on: 8.11.12 0924.24
If the anti-computer argument ever needed proof, here it is: The biggest front running, fraud team in the country, Texas Tech is ranked #10 while playing perhaps the most atrocious non-conference schedule in America and lost its tough game to Texas 52-17. Conversely, LSU, which might be the 3rd or 4th best team in the country, is ranked #13 by the computers, it's only loss to a then top 10 Tennessee team in OT. For some reason, there appears to be an anti-SEC bias in the computers. while there is a pro-Big 12 bias. This is very weird because the SEC is a much deeper and better conference than the Big 12 this season.
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#4 Posted on 8.11.05 1013.24
Reposted on: 8.11.12 1019.19
Strength of schedule changes weekly, though, so that in theory an overwhelmingly convincing loss to the #2 team in the nation doesn't hurt so much. Losing a close game to a team that was previously Top 10 but no longer is hurts a lot more, in LSU's case.

To stay with the computer rankings, here's a breakdown of rankings by computers in PDF form (bcsfootball.org). The discrepancy within the computers' rankings themselves is pretty laughable in some cases - Georgia, LSU, Ohio State, Minnesota, and TCU stick out like sore thumbs. What's surprising is that there are 2 computers that didn't even put USC in the Top 2.

The only ranking I've ever found remotely reliable was the Famous Fifteen - coupled with the FF Heisman Vote of 2002, it was resoundingly astute. :)
ges7184
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#5 Posted on 8.11.05 1254.50
Reposted on: 8.11.12 1256.27
Keep in mind that the computer folks were forced to take point spreads out of the equation for the computer rankings, therefore a 35 point loss = 1 point loss as far as the computers are concerned. The computers just know that Texas Tech lost to a good team, not by how much. The computers also know that Tennessee is NOT a top 10 team (and we should realize the same thing). That loss is not a good loss for LSU. While I agree that the Big 12 is down this year, my opinion is the SEC is also down this year. Some teams have good defenses, but the offenses in the SEC are woeful.


(edited by ges7184 on 8.11.05 1259)
wmatistic
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#6 Posted on 8.11.05 2003.19
Reposted on: 8.11.12 2003.22
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    If the anti-computer argument ever needed proof, here it is: The biggest front running, fraud team in the country, Texas Tech is ranked #10 while playing perhaps the most atrocious non-conference schedule in America and lost its tough game to Texas 52-17. Conversely, LSU, which might be the 3rd or 4th best team in the country, is ranked #13 by the computers, it's only loss to a then top 10 Tennessee team in OT. For some reason, there appears to be an anti-SEC bias in the computers. while there is a pro-Big 12 bias. This is very weird because the SEC is a much deeper and better conference than the Big 12 this season.


You're problem is that Texas is a really great team, and Tennessee is absolute crap. I know you see the name Tennessee and think, they not a bad loss, but do you realize just how bad it is for them right now? 3-5!!!!! I don't care what conference you play in, that's horrible. It means they HAVE to beat Memphi, Vandy and kentucky just to have a shot at a bowl game this year. Given how Vandy has looked I would say it's likely UT won't be playing in the postseason. So no, the computers really don't have it wrong in this one, though I'm not one to say they are without flaws.
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#7 Posted on 8.11.05 2016.22
Reposted on: 8.11.12 2016.39
    Originally posted by wmatistic
    3-5!!!!! I don't care what conference you play in, that's horrible.


Actually, Lousiana-Monroe is leading their conference at 3-5, with a 3-1 record in the Sun Belt.

LSU's non-conference schedule was Arizona State (similarly disappointing to Tennessee), North Texas, and Appalachian State. Combine that with the fact that the bottom three teams in their division are 7-18, and I can see the computers hating on LSU. On the other hand, if they beat Alabama they'll zoom right up the computer rankings.

Same with Alabama, actually. Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee State, and Utah State for non-conference games? Who makes these SEC schedules? I wonder if they'll beef them up in lieu of Auburn getting squeezed out last year and a potential 'Bama on the outside this year.
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#8 Posted on 8.11.05 2058.16
Reposted on: 8.11.12 2059.01
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
      Originally posted by wmatistic
      3-5!!!!! I don't care what conference you play in, that's horrible.


    Actually, Lousiana-Monroe is leading their conference at 3-5, with a 3-1 record in the Sun Belt.

    LSU's non-conference schedule was Arizona State (similarly disappointing to Tennessee), North Texas, and Appalachian State. Combine that with the fact that the bottom three teams in their division are 7-18, and I can see the computers hating on LSU. On the other hand, if they beat Alabama they'll zoom right up the computer rankings.

    Same with Alabama, actually. Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee State, and Utah State for non-conference games? Who makes these SEC schedules? I wonder if they'll beef them up in lieu of Auburn getting squeezed out last year and a potential 'Bama on the outside this year.






Here's the thing with hanging the non-conference schedule on the SEC teams: Texas Tech's non conference games were the Fighting Don Strock's of Florida International, Sam Houston State, and Indiana State. The quality win that Texas Tech would have is Nebraska, and, that really isn't that impressive this season. Also, watching that game, it was the most f'd up way to lose, as Nebraska intercepted Tech on 4th down with a minute to go, only to have a 320lb defensive lineman decide to try running the pick and fumbling, with Tech then scoring in the last seconds.
LSU does have the loss to Tennessee, but they did beat Florida and Auburn. And, at least Arizona State did appear to be difficult prior to the season, and, it's tough to penalize a team because a team didn't live up to expectations/pulled a traditional Michigan State quitting on the season. That can't even be loosely stated for any non conference Texas Tech game. Also, Georgia is #12 in the computers, even though they did beat a 7-2 Boise State non-conference. I'm not even an SEC fan, but, realistically, if you took the Big 12 and SEC teams this season, #1 would be Texas, and 2-5 would be SEC teams, and I might even put Colorado in as the #6 team, the second Big 12 team overall.

(edited by redsoxnation on 8.11.05 2200)
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#9 Posted on 8.11.05 2103.21
Reposted on: 8.11.12 2104.39
I wanted to mention the Sun Belt conference, and JayJayDean gave me the chance.

Here's the teams still technically able to become bowl eligible.


Team Conference Overall
Louisiana-Monroe 3-1 3-5
Arkansas State 3-2 4-4
Louisiana-Lafeyette 3-2 4-5
Troy 3-2 4-5
Middle Tennessee 2-2 3-4
Florida Int'l 1-3 2-5

Remember, 6-5 makes you bowl eligible. That means that unless a conference team wins 2/3, 3/4, or both/all 3/all 4 remaining games, none of them will be bowl eligible. Can't we just contract the whole conference to I-AA?

I'll bet MAC and C-USA teams are rooting for no one eligible though. Because then the spot in the Wyndham New Orleans Bowl might go to one of them instead.
whatever
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#10 Posted on 9.11.05 0705.48
Reposted on: 9.11.12 0707.19
    Originally posted by Zeruel
    Big Ten (top 9, Illinois, Purdue out)
    1. PSU (6-1, 9-1) *beat OSU, Wisc; plays MSU;
    2. OSU (5-1, 7-2) *lost to PSU; plays Minn, Mich
    3. Wisc (5-2, 8-2) *lost to PSU; plays Iowa; not OSU
    4t Mich (4-2, 6-3) *Beat PSU; plays Ind, OSU
    4t NW'ern (4-2, 6-3) *plays OSU, Ill
    6t Iowa (3-3, 5-4) Eliminated from Big Ten title
    6t Minn (3-3, 6-3) Eliminated from Big Ten title
    8. MSU (2-4, 5-4) Eliminated from Big Ten title
    9. Ind (1-5, 4-5) Eliminated from Big Ten title


OSU's remaining games are Northwestern and at Michigan. They already defeated Minnesota two weeks ago.
Zeruel
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#11 Posted on 9.11.05 0742.53
Reposted on: 9.11.12 0743.06
Yeah, I thought that didn't look right. Oh well. It wouldn't be a football post if I didn't have a slight goof.

Starting next week, I'll add bowl eligible non-bcs schools.
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#12 Posted on 12.11.05 1329.07
Reposted on: 12.11.12 1330.32
The computers really are biased against the SEC for some reason. Ok, so some of the SEC teams don't play hard non-conference games, but their conference is easily harder than the Big 12, shouldn't the 8 conference games count for more than 3 or 4 non-conference games. Right now you got 5 SEC teams in the top 15, the Big 12 only has 2, and like it's been mentioned, once of those teams, Texas Tech is a fraud. That's not a very impressive number 2, If Texas Tech faced the SEC teams I'd take Alabama, Auburn, Florida, LSU, and Georgia over them in a heartbeat, even South Carolina, Tennessee and Vanderbilt would atleast play them close.

Speaking of Tennessee, yeah nobody is going to disagree with you that Tennessee isn't as good as we thought, BUT they have lost to Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and Notre Dame. Four of those loses are in the top 12 and the fifth loss could end up 8 - 3 at the end of the season. So yes, they are 3 - 5, but they haven't lost to anyone bad, that's just how tough the SEC is.

I know that I'm in the minority in thinking Alabama will go undefeated but if they DID, if they beat LSU, AUburn and probably Georgia the last three weeks of the season, and also beat South Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee, shouldn't they be in the championship over a team that has only beaten Ohio State and Texas Tech? I know Alabama still has to do it on the field, but I think if they DO go undefeated they should clearly be in the championship, but I'm not sure they can catch Texas if they do, but they should.
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#13 Posted on 12.11.05 1848.44
Reposted on: 12.11.12 1850.06
Urban Meyer is very lucky to have beat Vandy last week, because if Florida had lost to them and then to Spurrier's Gamecocks, he might have made Ron Zook look good. Unfortunately, www.fireurbanmeyer.com is actually a positive site about Meyer, at least so far.
Eventually, Bama's lack of offense was going to come back to haunt them. If they lose to Auburn, they will fall from national title contenders to a December bowl game in near record time.
Somehow, it has all come down to 2 undefeated teams. Since that would be way to smooth for the BCS, someone is going to slip up between USC vs. Fresno and UCLA and Texas vs. A&M or the conference title game. If that happens, the 1 loss argument between LSU and Miami and potentially Penn State could be classic.
How did Florida State beat Miami? The rematch is going to be a massacre. This is Michigan State'esque quitting that Florida State has pulled.
Did Michigan fans ever think the day would come where they would root for Michigan State? For absolutely zero rational reason, I think the Spartans are going to pick off Penn State, because, when Michigan State should win they lose, when they should lose they win.
If Michigan beat Ohio State and Penn State loses, would Michigan's inclusion in the BCS actually mean Notre Dame could consider the win in Ann Arbor to be a quality win?
With the loss to Oklahoma State, the computers can say good-bye to Texas Tech.

(edited by redsoxnation on 12.11.05 2020)
Roy.
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#14 Posted on 12.11.05 1859.59
Reposted on: 12.11.12 1900.26
Yes, but www.firecoachmeyer.com is very much a negative site.
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#15 Posted on 13.11.05 0013.33
Reposted on: 13.11.12 0014.17
This has been a crazy week. 9 teams in the BCS top 25 lost. Absolutly pretendous.
wmatistic
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#16 Posted on 13.11.05 0435.52
Reposted on: 13.11.12 0440.20
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    How did Florida State beat Miami? The rematch is going to be a massacre. This is Michigan State'esque quitting that Florida State has pulled.



See here's the deal. It's the same thing I said earlier in the season when people were all up on FSU like they were "back". One, they have a ton of very young players. But two, and more importantly, Jeff Bowden still calls the plays.

In four years Chris Rix never got better. In fact he regressed it seems. Could be he was a complete moron, but it's not often that you see kids show no improvement at all over four years. Now after a hot start, Weathford has slowed down and gotten worse. Maybe it's the coaching, or maybe the fact that Jeff can't call plays to save his life and keeps putting Drew in can't win situations.

I'm not sure which, but I do know that a team that every single year is in the top five recruiting has no excuse to play offense this badly for as long as they have. Yes I know they lead the ACC in passing offense. Isn't doing them much good, is it?

The players aren't quitting. But I know one coach who should.

Oh and people are giving Miami way too much credit right now as well. Who did they beat besides a Tech team that hadn't really played anyone else to that point?
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#17 Posted on 13.11.05 0504.53
Reposted on: 13.11.12 0504.55
Personally, as a Gators fan, I'm fine with Urban so far. Will his offense work in the SEC? Maybe not. But I don't think we can tell yet when this is the first season the team is learning the offense and he doesn't have the players he needs yet. Losing to Vandy would've hurt, but that wasn't your ordinary 0 - 8 in the SEC Vandy team, I wouldn't be surprised if they beat Tennessee next week. Losing to South Carolina was tough, but losing Spurrier led South Carolina team is better than losing to a non-Spurrier South Carolina team. If we beat FSU, which I think we can, then atleast we beat the big 3, FSU, Tennessee and Georgia.

Miami has beaten some pretty decent teams, but i've been saying all along that Alabama should be in the championship if they beat Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, LSU, and Georgia. Now LSU is a Georgia win in the SEC Championship away from doing the same feat (with a win against Alabama instead of themself of course). So I would have them over Miami easily, and Penn State too.

I think Penn State, LSU, Alabama, and Miami are all good examples of why there should not be a playoff. They were SO close to being undefeated right now and having a shot at the national championship, but came up just a little bit short. If there were a playoff all those games would be pretty much pointless.

(edited by Quezzy on 13.11.05 0312)
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#18 Posted on 13.11.05 0731.55
Reposted on: 13.11.12 0732.42
    Originally posted by wmatistic
      Originally posted by redsoxnation
      How did Florida State beat Miami? The rematch is going to be a massacre. This is Michigan State'esque quitting that Florida State has pulled.



    See here's the deal. It's the same thing I said earlier in the season when people were all up on FSU like they were "back". One, they have a ton of very young players. But two, and more importantly, Jeff Bowden still calls the plays.

    In four years Chris Rix never got better. In fact he regressed it seems. Could be he was a complete moron, but it's not often that you see kids show no improvement at all over four years. Now after a hot start, Weathford has slowed down and gotten worse. Maybe it's the coaching, or maybe the fact that Jeff can't call plays to save his life and keeps putting Drew in can't win situations.

    I'm not sure which, but I do know that a team that every single year is in the top five recruiting has no excuse to play offense this badly for as long as they have. Yes I know they lead the ACC in passing offense. Isn't doing them much good, is it?

    The players aren't quitting. But I know one coach who should.

    Oh and people are giving Miami way too much credit right now as well. Who did they beat besides a Tech team that hadn't really played anyone else to that point?





I completely agree that Florida State in the past 5 years has gone from one of the most creative offenses in the country to one of the most stagnant. However, the FSU defense has quit. Clemson dominated that defense in a manner I've rarely seen in the past 20 years, especially against non-Top 10 teams.
JayJayDean
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#19 Posted on 13.11.05 1659.29
Reposted on: 13.11.12 1659.40
    Originally posted by Mr. Boffo
    This has been a crazy week. 9 teams in the BCS top 25 lost. Absolutly pretendous.


"Pretendous"?
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#20 Posted on 13.11.05 1713.50
Reposted on: 13.11.12 1713.52
http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:-M-DTw400w8J:hrwiki.org/index.php/Pretendous+pretendous&hl=en&client=firefox-a

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