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The 7 - Football - The State of the BCS - Week 3
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Texas Kelly
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#1 Posted on 31.10.05 2300.11
Reposted on: 31.10.12 2300.24
THE STATE OF THE BCS - Week 3

CURRENT BCS STANDINGS
The bracketed sequence following a team's name in the BCS standings refers to (in order) the team's Harris Interactive poll ranking, the team's USA Today coaches' poll ranking, and the average of the six computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin, and Peter Wolfe). The average of these three rankings determines the team's BCS ranking.

1. Southern California [1, 1, T2] (+1)
2. Texas [2, 2, 1] (-1)
3. Virginia Tech [3, 3, T2]
4. Alabama [4, 4, 4] (+1)
5. California-Los Angeles [6, 7, 6] (+1)
6. Miami [5, 5, 10] (+1)
7. Penn State [10, 11, 5] (+2)
8. Louisiana State [7, 6, T14]
9. Florida State [8, 8, T14] (+1)
10. Ohio State [12, 12, 8] (+3)
11. Georgia [11, 10, 12] (-7)
12. Wisconsin [14, 14, 7]
...
14. Notre Dame [9, 9, 22] (+1)
...
17. West Virginia [18, 16, 13]

-----

I added Notre Dame to the standings just to further highlight the shafting that they are receiving from the computers. It's only going to get worse thanks to the Volunteers blowing it again last week at home against South Carolina, and when the Irish win out and miss out on a shot at a BCS bowl, it'll be the computers blowing it again just like they did with California & Texas last year. (I don't care if Texas ultimately won the game against Michigan - Cal should have been there, period.)

Obviously, the big shakeup this week comes from Georgia falling from the ranks of the unbeaten. I do think they fell a bit too far though - they clamped down well on Florida after a slow start and had a chance to win a game I figured that they'd never be in at the end. The question at this point is whether Shockley can be the same player and still navigate the Bulldogs on their collision course with Alabama in the SEC championship - but with a tough November ahead (at home against Auburn and on the road at Georgia Tech), it's no longer a sure thing.

PROJECTED BERTHS
Projected automatic conference berths are based on a team's record in conference play. Mandated conference tiebreakers are used where possible to break ties for automatic conference berths. In the case of a tie that cannot be broken, the tied teams' BCS ranking is used to break the tie.

ACC: Virginia Tech
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Penn State
Big 12: Texas
Pac-10: Southern California
SEC: Alabama
At-Large #1: California-Los Angeles (Pac-10)
At-Large #2: Miami (ACC)

-----

The status quo held for the leaders in the Big Ten, and this week's matchup between Penn State & Wisconsin, while not officially a Big Ten championship game, will put the winner on a clear inside track. Michigan re-entered the picture with the win against Northwestern, but a lot has to go right for them: They must win out against Indiana this week and then in the Big Game against Ohio State, and hope that Penn State beats Wisconsin but then loses to Michigan State. There's still much to be said here, but Penn State & Wisconsin still control their own destiny.

Miami moved up into the second at-large spot this week, but it's probably not going to last: The Hurricanes must travel to Blacksburg this week, and I haven't seen anything out of them to convince me that they'll be able to derail Michael Vick's kid brother and the Hokies' quest to crack the BCS and get into the title game (which won't happen unless the Trojans or the Longhorns lose). Should the Hurricanes prove me wrong, you'll see them for sure in the automatic spot next week.

PROJECTED MATCHUPS
Rose Bowl: Southern California v. Texas
Fiesta Bowl: UCLA v. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. Miami
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. Penn State

Pac-10 champion Southern California & Big 12 champion Texas are automatically placed into the Rose Bowl due to their #1 & #2 rankings, respectively. ACC champion Virginia Tech is placed into the Orange Bowl and SEC champion Alabama is placed into the Sugar Bowl due to traditional conference tie-ins. The only bowl to lose a traditional tie-in is the Fiesta Bowl (Big 12 champion Texas) so it gets first choice of the remaining teams. Usually, the selections to fill the remaining slots after the national championship game and the traditional conference tie-ins are done in accord with BCS rankings, meaning that the Fiesta would select Pac-10 at-large UCLA as its first representative.

Priority for the remaining selections is based on a bowl's payout and its priority stature in previous years. (Each bowl submits a list of its top three teams, and the bowl is given the highest-listed team available based on the bowl's priority.) The BCS has established the following priority order based on these factors for this year's bowls:

1. Orange Bowl
2. Fiesta Bowl
3. Sugar Bowl

By rule, if a conference champion is available for this last stage of allocations, they cannot be ranked third on the list that a bowl submits. This means that by default, ACC at-large Miami would be allocated to the Sugar Bowl (since it has the lowest priority). Finally, based on BCS rankings, Big Ten champion Penn State is selected by the Orange Bowl, and Big East champion West Virginia is selected by the Fiesta Bowl.
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Quezzy
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#2 Posted on 1.11.05 0017.59
Reposted on: 1.11.12 0019.39
I don't know why you continue to push for Notre Dame, the computers' 22 ranking is much closer to where they are than the polls ridiculous rankings. Notre Dame shouldn't even be the highest ranked 2 loss team since Florida has beaten the previously undefeated Georgia team and also beaten Tennessee while their only two losses are both in the top 10. And Notre Dame being higher in the polls than a one loss FSU, a one loss Penn State and a one loss Georgia team is absurd.

On a sidenote, Georgia does have a tough November with Auburn and Georgia Tech, but the Georgia Tech is irrelevant when it comes to the SEC Championship (though I'm sure they still want to win it). It's pretty much win the Auburn game and they're in, lose the Auburn game and Florida probably goes to the SEC Championship against Alabama, LSU, or even Auburn.

(edited by Quezzy on 31.10.05 2222)
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#3 Posted on 1.11.05 0103.59
Reposted on: 1.11.12 0108.38
Here's an in-depth look at the BCS confs. Next week I'll remove eliminated teams from the update, but keep bowl eligible teams

Records (conf, overall, and div if there is one);



ACC - Atlantic
1. FSU (5-1, 7-1, 3-0) *2 conf games left
2. BC (3-2, 6-2, 2-1) *3 conf games left
3. WF (3-3, 4-5, 2-3) *2 conf games left; eliminated with FSU conf win or WF conf loss
4. MD (2-3, 4-4, 1-2) *3 conf games left; eliminated with FSU conf win or MD conf loss
5. Cle (2-4, 4-4, 2-2) Eliminated from Atlantic title
6. NCSU (1-4, 3-4, 0-2) Eliminated from Atlantic title

ACC - Coastal (top 5, Duke out)
1. VT (5-0, 8-0, 2-0) *3 conf games left
2. UM (3-1, 6-1, 2-0) *4 conf games left
3. GT (3-2, 5-2, 2-1) *3 conf games left
4. NC (2-2, 3-4, 1-2) *4 conf games left
5. VA (2-3, 4-3, 1-1) *3 conf games left



Big East (top 7, Syracuse out)
1. WV (3-0, 6-1) *4 conf games left
2t Pitt (3-1, 4-4) *3 conf games left
2t RU (3-1, 6-2) *3 conf games left; lost to WV
4. Cin (2-2, 4-4) *3 conf games left
5. USF (1-1, 3-3) *5 conf games left
6t UConn (1-2, 4-3) *4 conf games left
6t Lou (1-2, 5-2) *4 conf games left



Big Ten (top 9, Illinois, Purdue out)
1t PSU (5-1, 8-1) *2 conf games left; plays Wisc, MSU; not Iowa
1t Wisc (5-1, 8-1) *2 conf games left; plays PSU, Iowa; not OSU
3. OSU (4-1, 6-2) *3 conf games left; lost to PSU; plays Minn, Mich
4. Mich (4-2, 6-3) *2 conf games left; Plays Indiana, OSU; lost to Wisc, Minn
5t NW'ern (3-2, 5-3) *3 conf games left
5t Iowa (3-2, 5-3) *3 conf games left; lost to OSU; plays NW, Wisc, Minn
7t Minn (2-3, 5-3) *Eliminated from Big Ten title
7t MSU (2-3, 5-3) *Eliminated from Big Ten title
9 Ind (1-4, 4-4) *Eliminated from Big Ten title



Big XII - North
1. CO (4-1, 6-2, 2-0) *3 conf games left
2. Mis (3-2, 5-3, 2-1) *3 conf games left
3t Neb (2-3, 5-3, 1-1) *3 conf games left
3t ISU (2-3, 5-3, 0-2) *3 conf games left
5t KSU (1-4, 4-4, 1-1) *3 conf games left; Eliminated with CO conf win or KSU conf loss
5t Kansas (1-4, 4-4, 1-3) *3 conf games left; Eliminated with CO conf win or Kansas loss


Big XII - South
1. TX (5-0, 8-0, 3-0) *3 conf games left
2t OK (4-1, 5-3, 1-1) *3 conf games left
2t TXT (4-1, 7-1, 1-1) *3 conf games left
4. TAMU (3-2, 5-3, 2-0) *3 conf games left
5. Bay (1-4, 4-4, 0-3) Eliminated from South title
6. OKS (0-5, 3-5, 0-3) Eliminated from South title


Pac-10 (top 8, Arizona, Washington out)
1t USC (5-0, 8-0) *3 conf games left; plays UCLA, Stan; beat OR; DNP ORSU
1t UCLA (5-0, 8-0) *3 conf games left; plays USC; DNP OR
3. OR (4-1, 7-1) *3 conf games left; plays ORS; beat Stan; lost to USC; DNP UCLA
4t Stanford (3-2, 4-3) *3 conf games left
4t Cal (3-2, 6-2) *3 conf games left
6t ORSU (2-3, 4-4) *3 conf games left
6t ASU (2-3, 4-4) *3 conf games left
8. WSU (0-5, 3-5) *Eliminated from Pac-10 title


SEC - East
1. GA (5-1, 7-1, 3-1) *2 conf games left
2. FL (4-2, 6-2, 3-0) *2 conf games left; 2 GA conf wins will eliminate them, or GA conf win with FL conf loss
3. SC (3-3, 5-3, 3-1) *2 conf games left; GA conf win will eliminate them
4. Van (2-3, 4-4, 0-2) *3 conf games left; GA conf win will eliminate them
5. TN (2-4, 3-4, 0-3) *Eliminated from East title
6. KY (1-3, 2-5, 0-2) *4 conf games left; GA conf win will eliminate them


SEC - West (top 5, Mississippi State out)
1. Ala (5-0, 8-0, 1-0) *3 conf games left
2t LSU (4-1, 6-1, 2-0) *3 conf games left
2t Aub (4-1, 6-2, 3-1) *3 conf games left
4. MS (1-4, 3-5, 0-2) *Eliminated; 1 loss from being bowl inelegible
5. AR (0-4, 2-5, 0-2) *Eliminated; 1 loss from being bowl inelegible
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#4 Posted on 1.11.05 0104.06
Reposted on: 1.11.12 0109.07
    Originally posted by Texas Kelly
    I added Notre Dame to the standings just to further highlight the shafting that they are receiving from the computers. It's only going to get worse thanks to the Volunteers blowing it again last week at home against South Carolina, and when the Irish win out and miss out on a shot at a BCS bowl, it'll be the computers blowing it again just like they did with California & Texas last year.


Dude. WHO HAVE THEY BEATEN? I don't care that they ALMOST beat USC. I don't care that Charlie Weis is suddenly the second coming of Jesus. I don't care that you and all the other Notre Dame fans that came crawling back out of the woodwork this year think you're getting shafted. The Irish have beaten five teams that SUCK.

Here's who Notre Dame has beaten:
Pittsburgh 4-4
Michigan 6-3
Washington 1-7
Purdue 2-6
BYU 4-4

The record of the teams Notre Dame has beaten is a combined 17-24. And we're supposed to be impressed because they kept it close against USC? They get no sympathy from me. Beat somebody.
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#5 Posted on 1.11.05 0846.43
Reposted on: 1.11.12 0849.31
    Originally posted by Crimedog
      Originally posted by Texas Kelly
      I added Notre Dame to the standings just to further highlight the shafting that they are receiving from the computers. It's only going to get worse thanks to the Volunteers blowing it again last week at home against South Carolina, and when the Irish win out and miss out on a shot at a BCS bowl, it'll be the computers blowing it again just like they did with California & Texas last year.


    Dude. WHO HAVE THEY BEATEN? I don't care that they ALMOST beat USC. I don't care that Charlie Weis is suddenly the second coming of Jesus. I don't care that you and all the other Notre Dame fans that came crawling back out of the woodwork this year think you're getting shafted. The Irish have beaten five teams that SUCK.

    Here's who Notre Dame has beaten:
    Pittsburgh 4-4
    Michigan 6-3
    Washington 1-7
    Purdue 2-6
    BYU 4-4

    The record of the teams Notre Dame has beaten is a combined 17-24. And we're supposed to be impressed because they kept it close against USC? They get no sympathy from me. Beat somebody.

And don't have two losses at this point in the season.
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#6 Posted on 1.11.05 0940.48
Reposted on: 1.11.12 0943.28
Notre Dame is low in the computers because each loss kills you, thus they fall below the 1 loss teams. If they win out, they'll be in the Top 12, and probably the Top 6, because there are a number of games left between teams in front of them, thus resulting in one of those teams having to lose.
The real joke is Miami being the #1 1 loss team in the BCS. Who have they beaten, a mediocre Colorado team? And, those new uniforms made them look like Baylor on Saturday. They'll drop after Va. Tech takes them to the woodshed, but, that is the team that is a joke. Neutral field, who would you take: 1 loss Miami or 1 loss LSU?
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#7 Posted on 1.11.05 1312.40
Reposted on: 1.11.12 1314.46
I was flipping through the channels looking for a game to watch on Saturday and stopped on the Miami game thinking it was UAB, then I saw #6 up in the corner and I was like UAB is number 6?? Then I realized it was Miami, awful awful uniforms. I'm also not crazy about Florida's mismatched sleeves.
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#8 Posted on 1.11.05 1523.29
Reposted on: 1.11.12 1529.01
I'd really to know how Billingsley's computer poll has the Ducks ranked out of the top 25, but others have us at 6. Now I know that the top two are thrown out, but how can you trust computers that crazy.

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#9 Posted on 1.11.05 1730.35
Reposted on: 1.11.12 1731.46
A VA Tech win over Miami this weekend would be huge...and very hard to overlook.
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#10 Posted on 1.11.05 1747.24
Reposted on: 1.11.12 1750.52

    ACC - Atlantic
    1. FSU (5-1, 7-1, 3-0) *2 conf games left
    2. BC (3-2, 6-2, 2-1) *3 conf games left
    3. WF (3-3, 4-5, 2-3) *2 conf games left; eliminated with FSU conf win or WF conf loss
    4. MD (2-3, 4-4, 1-2) *3 conf games left; eliminated with FSU conf win or MD conf loss
    5. Cle (2-4, 4-4, 2-2) Eliminated from Atlantic title
    6. NCSU (1-4, 3-4, 0-2) Eliminated from Atlantic title


Oh, that hurts. If the Terps had pulled the game out against FSU this weekend, they'd have controlled their own destiny. Hell, if we wouldn't have choked against Clemson we'd be doing pretty damned well right now.

And ND is going to have to beat someone before they actually deserve to be that high. The Pitt and Michigan wins weren't as good as they looked at the time, and the Michigan State loss looks worse each week. 9-2 shouldn't be good enough if the calling card is a close loss to USC.
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#11 Posted on 3.11.05 0058.13
Reposted on: 3.11.12 0058.56
I second or third or fifth or whatever that Notre Dame doesn't in any way deserve a BCS slot right now. And that Miami is ranked too high as well. However I'm not sold on Virginia Tech dominating against Miami. It could very well happen, and I kind of expect it, but at the same time Miami has talent and could make this a closer game than people think. BC is the only decent team Tech has played thus far and the talent level between BC and Miami is a pretty large gap.

And actually I don't think it's a done deal that Tech can't pass Texas in the BCS rankings either. Texas has it's win over Ohio State and Texas Tech, which really wasn't a big deal. Their remaining games don't help them at all though, as they play Kansas, Baylor and Texas A&M then likely either Colorado or Missouri again. Virginia Tech has the win over BC, which doesn't seem that impressive now, but has a chance to finish with wins over Miami and then likely Florida State, which would be two top ten teams. The computers are going to like them quite a bit even if the pollsters don't. I think this is going to be very close if both win out. but then again I don't think Tech will go undefeated anyway.
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#12 Posted on 3.11.05 0247.38
Reposted on: 3.11.12 0248.07
I also don't believe Miami deserves to be ranked as high as they are, and like wmastic said, I'm not sure Texas has really done a whole lot too. They might have the best win so far against Ohio State, but how long can that be enough? Virginia Tech take a leap if they beat Miami and though people don't think Alabama will go undefeated, I don't know why. They are definitely capable of beating LSU and Alabama and with DJ Shockley's injury they might get a Georgia team that isn't 100 percent, or might not even play Georgia at all, but Florida again instead. I don't know if they will finish ahead of Texas if they go undefeated and I doubt they'll move ahead of Virginia Tech if they beat MIami and FSU or move ahead of USC, but wins over Tennessee, Florida, LSU, Auburn and a SEC Championship SHOULD be enough to be in the National Championship and the state of Alabama will be screwed once again.
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#13 Posted on 3.11.05 1400.01
Reposted on: 3.11.12 1400.26
Of course, if UCLA and USC meet when both teams are undefeated, I'd have to argue that'd be the biggest win for any of the top 3 teams (provided USC wins, of course).

Also, allow me to pile on the ND hate. Their best win (over Michigan) was early in the year, before the Wolverines hit any kind of stride at all. It looks better in hindsight, but Michigan wasn't that good a team up until recently. Of course, it won't matter if they win out, as the human polls will most likely move ND as high as they can in order to assure them of a top 12 BCS standing, but hey, it's the thought that counts, right? Maybe we can all get lucky and they'll take on Penn State (but it'll probably be West Virginia).
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#14 Posted on 3.11.05 1520.39
Reposted on: 3.11.12 1520.48
I don't actually get all of the ND hate, and I actually think that it is a good example of what DOES work about the BCS. Do I think ND could beat most any team in the country? Yes, and if I were ranking them by that criteria I see no reason why they are overranked at #8 or #9. However, do their accomplishments pale compared to the teams below them? Also yes, so I have no problem with a computer crunching numbers and deeming them #20.

I admit, when Nebraska was chosen ahead of Colorado and Oregon is 2001, it was easy for me to rationalize it at the time because Nebraska had played a tougher schedule and unfortunately lost their last game, which put them at a disadvantage to the teams that lost much earlier in the year, which is kind of stupid when taken at face value.
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#15 Posted on 5.11.05 1814.37
Reposted on: 5.11.12 1814.44
With Wisconsin and Florida State losing, the path is now clear for Notre Dame to move into the Top 12.
This falls out of the BCS discussion, but, Kansas 40 Nebraska 15. Time for Bill Callahan to get the updated resumes out before the holiday season.


Edit: Well, I guess Miami has now beaten someone. Bye Va. Tech, and not shockingly, bye UCLA. Now, this is what I'd project the major bowls to be under the "Bad Old Days" pre Bowl Alliance/BCS System, but with the same conference tie-ins. I'm working on the presumption that Alabama gets picked off at least once by LSU/Auburn/Possible SEC Title game. If I'm wrong and Bama runs the gauntlet, they deserve to be #1.

Rose: USC (11-0) vs. Penn State (10-1): This could be Ohio State instead of Penn State, but I don't know which schizophrenic Michigan State team will show up in a few weeks. Very interesting game between traditional powers. True, it's not Texas/USC, but it would be a hell of a game. USC win probably would ensure a national title, Penn State upset plus some help could give JoePa at least a split national title. Very watchable game with national title possibilities.

Fiesta: Texas (12-0) vs. Notre Dame (9-2): Yes, Notre Dame would be there, because they would be 5 or 6 in the AP poll and no computers would be involved in the "Bad Old Days". Would be a shoot out, and you'd have alot of people who hate Notre Dame rooting for them, especially if Penn State would knock off USC and things really open themselves up for a 1 loss team to get national title. Texas/Miami in the Orange Bowl would actually be better, but Big 12 tie in to Fiesta puts them here, and with other picks I'm working on the Apollo Creed "There Aint Going To Be No Rematch" motto. Very watchable game with national title possibilities.

Orange: Miami (11-1) vs Ohio State (9-2)/Oregon (10-1)/or West Virginia (Big East Champ): No Rematch means no Va. Tech in this game. If Ohio State beats Michigan, they go play Miami. Most interesting TV game. If Michigan wins and Oregon runs the table and is selected ahead of Va. Tech; or Michigan State knocks off Penn State, they could have an unusual matchup with the Hurricanes. If Va. Tech is chosen as the other at large, Miami gets stuck with West Virginia. If no West Virginia, watchable game that could have national title potential should the unbeatens fall.

Sugar, played in Georgia Dome: LSU or Georgia (11-1) vs. Va Tech (10-1) or West Virginia (Big East Champ): I think LSU is going to knock off Alabama. I can't see Bama winning every week without an offense. Either LSU or Georgia could stake claim to a share of the national title with upsets of Texas and USC, probably would help if Miami were picked off as well. Va. Tech would be the best match-up, if it's West Virginia, well, someone gets stuck with the Big East champ. Watchable with potential national title should unbeatens fall, would really need Michigan to knock off Ohio State and cause the Big East Champ not to be there to really be watchable.

Under the "Bad Old Days", a realistic case could be made that all 4 of the major bowls would have some national title possibilities, and cause casual fans to actually pay attention to all 4 games rather than just 1. You would have people who don't like Penn State rooting for them, people who despise Notre Dame desperately wanting them to win, hell, people might actually give a damn who wins the Big East. OK, giving a damn who wins the Big East might be a stretch. Right scenario, there are many arguments between 1 loss teams for a national title that generates even more interest in college football. Maybe the "Bad Old Days" weren't so bad.

(edited by redsoxnation on 6.11.05 1117)
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