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30.7.07 2043
The 7 - Football - The State of the BCS - Week 1
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Texas Kelly
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#1 Posted on 17.10.05 1432.08
Reposted on: 17.10.12 1432.30
THE STATE OF THE BCS - Week 1

CURRENT BCS STANDINGS
The bracketed sequence following a team's name in the BCS standings refers to (in order) the team's Harris Interactive poll ranking, the team's USA Today coaches' poll ranking, and the average of the six computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin, and Peter Wolfe). The average of these three rankings determines the team's BCS ranking.

1. Southern California [1, 1, 1]
2. Texas [2, 2, 2]
3. Virginia Tech [3, 3, 4]
4. Georgia [4, 4, 3]
5. Alabama [5, 5, 5]
6. Louisiana State [7, 7, T9]
7. Texas Tech [9, 8, 7]
8. Miami [6, 6, T13]
9. California-Los Angeles [8, 9, 11]
10. Penn State [12, 14, 6]
11. Florida State [10, 10, T13]
12. Boston College [13, 11, 15]
...
17. West Virginia [20, 20, 12]

-----

The one thing that stands out to me in these standings, other than how firmly delinated the top five are from the rest of the pack (it's a drop-off of almost .12 percentage points from Alabama to LSU) is the utterly disgraceful way which the computer rankings have treated Notre Dame, who are two bad breaks away from being undefeated and firmly in the title hunt. (They stand at #16, ranked in the top 12 in both human polls, and a ridiculously low #25 by the computers.) Instead of having the shot to contend for a BCS berth that they deserve, the computers will make it difficult for them to get even close, even if Notre Dame wins out the rest of the way. Shame on you, machines.

PROJECTED BERTHS
Projected automatic conference berths are based on a team's record in conference play. Mandated conference tiebreakers are used where possible to break ties for automatic conference berths. In the case of a tie that cannot be broken, the tied teams' BCS ranking is used to break the tie.

ACC: Virginia Tech
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Penn State
Big 12: Texas
Pac-10: Southern California
SEC: Georgia
At-Large #1: Alabama (SEC)
At-Large #2: Texas Tech (Big 12)

BCS rules mandate that no conference is permitted more than two spots in the field of six. This means that although LSU has a higher BCS ranking than Texas Tech, LSU cannot be selected for the second at-large spot since this would give the SEC more than the maximum number of two teams allowed. Since Texas Tech is the next highest-ranked team in the BCS standings without an automatic berth, it receives the second at-large berth.

-----

Things could get mighty interesting as we proceed through the rest of the season. This first set of rankings has validated two of my main points of contention from last season - that the Big East is so weak at this point that it no longer deserves an automatic berth into the BCS (just wait until West Virginia goes through its annual late season swoon - then things will really get chaotic), and that the SEC's power was and is clearly underestimated. Last year the SEC champion got screwed out of a shot at the national championship by the system - this year, the SEC is so strong that it appears as though it might have more teams jockeying for BCS slots than it can put in!

PROJECTED MATCHUPS
Rose Bowl: Southern California v. Texas
Fiesta Bowl: Alabama v. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: Georgia v. Texas Tech
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. Penn State

Pac-10 champion Southern California & Big 12 champion Texas are automatically placed into the Rose Bowl due to their #1 & #2 rankings, respectively. ACC champion Virginia Tech is placed into the Orange Bowl and SEC champion Georgia is placed into the Sugar Bowl due to traditional conference tie-ins. The only bowl to lose a traditional tie-in is the Fiesta Bowl (Big 12 champion Texas) so it gets first choice of the remaining teams. Usually, the selections to fill the remaining slots after the national championship game and the traditional conference tie-ins are done in accord with BCS rankings, meaning that the Fiesta would select SEC at-large Alabama as its first representative.

Priority for the remaining selections is based on a bowl's payout and its priority stature in previous years. (Each bowl submits a list of its top three teams, and the bowl is given the highest-listed team available based on the bowl's priority.) The BCS has established the following priority order based on these factors for this year's bowls:

1. Orange Bowl
2. Fiesta Bowl
3. Sugar Bowl

By rule, if a conference champion is available for this last stage of allocations, they cannot be ranked third on the list that a bowl submits. This means that by default, Big 12 at-large Texas Tech would be allocated to the Sugar Bowl (since it has the lowest priority). Finally, based on BCS rankings, Big Ten champion is selected by the Orange Bowl, and Big East champion West Virginia is selected by the Fiesta Bowl.

(edited by Texas Kelly on 17.10.05 1831)
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TheBucsFan
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#2 Posted on 17.10.05 1456.58
Reposted on: 17.10.12 1458.57
    Originally posted by Texas Kelly
    Big East: West Virginia


You know what's really crazy? USF, which has never even played in a bowl game in its four years of Division 1A play, has a very realistic chance of getting this berth. West Virginia travels to Tampa this week, where USF destroyed Louisville a few weeks ago and has won something like 30 of its last 32 games. At one point, USF had a 23-game home-winning streak, the second-longest in the nation at that point (the streak ended in October 2003 in a close loss to then-unbeaten TCU) behind Miami.

USF was beaten by Pittsburgh on Saturday, but if they beat WV, they'll hold the tiebreaker with conference games remaining against Rutgers, UConn and Cincinatti. With two losses and not holding the tiebreaker against the Bulls or the Mountaniers, Louisville is pretty much out of the running.

If I can go off on a tangent, (note: I'm a USF graduate), in the rare event the Big East race gets discussed nationally, nobody mentions USF in the hunt. But I think they may be the best of the three teams with a shot. They killed Louisville (this was the second consecutive time the Cardinals came to Tampa undefeated and left with a loss), lost by 10 to Penn State when then-starting quarterback Courtney Denton fumbled twice in the fourth quarter, and held Miami in check other than the fact that now-starting quarterback Pat Julmiste completed more first-quarter passes to Miami defenders than he did USF receivers. The loss to Pitt is inexplicable, but this team is on the rise in a huge way and I think in a couple years could very realistically have replaced UF, FSU or Miami as the third-best team in this state, which would be a huge accomplishment. A BCS berth, deserved or not, would speed up that process and I'd love to see it.
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#3 Posted on 17.10.05 1517.30
Reposted on: 17.10.12 1522.10
    Originally posted by Texas Kelly
    The one thing that stands out to me in these standings, other than how firmly delinated the top five are from the rest of the pack (it's a drop-off of almost .12 percentage points from Alabama to LSU) is the utterly disgraceful way which the computer rankings have treated Notre Dame, who are two bad breaks away from being undefeated and firmly in the title hunt. (They stand at #16, ranked in the top 12 in both human polls, and a ridiculously low #25 by the computers.) Instead of having the shot to contend for a BCS berth that they deserve, the computers will make it difficult for them to get even close, even if Notre Dame wins out the rest of the way. Shame on you, machines.


Presumably, the computer isn't impressed by the "closeness" of the two losses, both of which were at home, and the fact is that Washington and Pitt are both very lousy and Michigan and Purdue are not that impressive, either. If Michigan, Purdue, and Pitt were as good as they were though of preseason, ND would surely be ranked MUCH higher.

As it is, they have to win out to get to nine wins, anyway, and they will probably be in the top twelve if they do so.
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#4 Posted on 17.10.05 1702.57
Reposted on: 17.10.12 1706.39
I don't think the BCS allows the computer rankings to use margin of victory. This article says they dropped it in 2002, and I don't think they brought it back since then.
http://espn.go.com/ncf/news/2002/0621/1397538.html

The way I see it, the computer rankings are going to be attacked either way.

If they include strength of victory, then you have to worry about running up the score, and people will say things like "a 7 point win is just as good as a 28 point win".

If they don't include it, then you get stuff like this, because the computers don't know how much ND lost by, just that they lost twice.
Texas Kelly
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#5 Posted on 17.10.05 1735.48
Reposted on: 17.10.12 1736.26
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
    As it is, they have to win out to get to nine wins, anyway, and they will probably be in the top twelve if they do so.

You're missing the fine print in the "Notre Dame exception", as most people do: Those rules (nine wins or a top 12 BCS finish) only apply if another non-BCS-conference team qualifies for an at-large bid. Obviously, that's not happening this year, so Notre Dame is subject to the same rules as the mid-majors: Sixth place or bust. (Which, given those computer rankings, is almost impossible.)
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#6 Posted on 17.10.05 1748.07
Reposted on: 17.10.12 1754.35
    Originally posted by Texas Kelly
    The one thing that stands out to me in these standings, other than how firmly delinated the top five are from the rest of the pack (it's a drop-off of almost .12 percentage points from Alabama to LSU) is the utterly disgraceful way which the computer rankings have treated Notre Dame, who are two bad breaks away from being undefeated and firmly in the title hunt. (They stand at #16, ranked in the top 12 in both human polls, and a ridiculously low #25 by the computers.) Instead of having the shot to contend for a BCS berth that they deserve, the computers will make it difficult for them to get even close, even if Notre Dame wins out the rest of the way. Shame on you, machines.


I think you have it backwards. The machines are doing their job, and the human polls give Notre Dame about a ten spot boost just on the basis of being ND. Who has Notre Dame beat to warrant a ranking in the top 12? Incredibly overrated teams in Michigan, Purdue, and Pitt? Or a downright horrible team in Washington? The only two legitimate teams they've played so far are Michigan State and USC, and they lost both of those games. Hell, even after losing this week they didn't drop a single spot in the AP poll. Yeah, it was a close loss to a great team, but what other team could lose and not drop a single spot?

    Originally posted by TheBucsFan
    but this team is on the rise in a huge way and I think in a couple years could very realistically have replaced UF, FSU or Miami as the third-best team in this state, which would be a huge accomplishment.


Say what? You're talking about South Florida right? A team that is a whopping 2-3 against D I-A teams this year (including a win over powerhouse Central Florida)? A team that lost to Miami this year by three touchdowns? It's alright to talk up the alma mater, but they went 4-7 in Conference USA last year. Maybe they'll get a bowl bid this year, but they have a long, long way to go before they're even going to be competitive against the Big Three in FL college football.

(edited by BigSteve on 17.10.05 1849)

(edited by BigSteve on 17.10.05 1850)

(edited by BigSteve on 17.10.05 1850)
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#7 Posted on 17.10.05 1750.50
Reposted on: 17.10.12 1755.19
Losses hurt in the computers, thus Notre Dame is below the undefeated and 1 loss teams. If they win out, they should be in good shape.
Don't worry about Texas Tech being the at-large team, they'll get taken out this weekend by Texas. And, if not, then that knocks Texas out of national title contention.
If you want the excuse to dump the Big East from the BCS, have the State University of New Jersey get the bid. That would kill all credibility for the Big East.
Remember the ACC and SEC teams will cannibalize themselves over the next two months, and that would allow a Notre Dame to move up in the BCS standings. The BCS dream match-ups:

Rose: USC vs. Texas
Fiesta: Notre Dame (at large as other teams beat each other up) vs. Miami(ACC at-large)
Sugar: Georgia/Alabama vs. Penn State (remember, Sugar is in Georgia Dome this year)
Orange: Virginia Tech/Florida State vs. Rutgers: Someone is going to get screwed with the Big East champ, and at least if its a New York area team, the Orange could at least get tourists. Whoever gets the Big East is screwed. If you get Georgia in the Sugar, it would probably be better to put the Big East in the Sugar, as Georgia would bang out the building anyway. But, Penn State vs. an SEC team is a better game for the TV viewer to give a damn about.

(edited by redsoxnation on 17.10.05 1852)
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#8 Posted on 17.10.05 1757.53
Reposted on: 17.10.12 1758.36
    Originally posted by Texas Kelly
      Originally posted by JayJayDean
      As it is, they have to win out to get to nine wins, anyway, and they will probably be in the top twelve if they do so.

    You're missing the fine print in the "Notre Dame exception", as most people do: Those rules (nine wins or a top 12 BCS finish) only apply if another non-BCS-conference team qualifies for an at-large bid. Obviously, that's not happening this year, so Notre Dame is subject to the same rules as the mid-majors: Sixth place or bust. (Which, given those computer rankings, is almost impossible.)


I don't think you're interpreting that correctly. This is from bcsfootball.org as one of the criteria for selecting "at-large" teams:

Any team from an independent institution Conference, USA, the Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, or Western Athletic Conference that is ranked three through six shall qualify for automatic selection.

If one or more teams other than Notre Dame qualify for automatic selection under this provision, Notre Dame shall also qualify provided it is ranked in the top ten or has won at least nine games.

If more than one at-large team qualifies for automatic selection under this provision and there are insufficient at-large slots available to accommodate all of them, the BCS bowls will select from those that qualify.


I think that means any non-BCS conference (or whatever they're called anymore) team in the top six has to be put in the pool of BCS teams, and it clearly says if that happens AND Notre Dame is in the BCS top ten, then Notre Dame gets the other at-large selection. There's also this:

All Division I-A college football teams are eligible for at-large selection provided they meet both of the following requirements:

1. Have won at least nine regular season games.
2. Are among the top 12 teams in the final BCS Standings.


Nothing about Notre Dame needing to be in the top six there, either. I think they could get KO'ed from the BCS if two mid-majors were in the top six, but that's about it.

(edited by JayJayDean on 17.10.05 1559)
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#9 Posted on 17.10.05 1809.17
Reposted on: 17.10.12 1818.47
Here's an in-depth look at the BCS confs. Next week I'll remove eliminated teams from the update

Records (div, conf, overall)

ACC - Atlantic
1. FSU (2-0. 3-1, 5-1) *3 div games left; holds win over BC; will clinch Atlantic with 2 div wins over NCSU and MD
2. BC (2-1, 3-1, 6-1) *2 div games left; needs 2 FSU div losses to clinch
3. Clem (2-2, 2-3, 3-3) *FSU left, must win to stay alive
4. MD (1-1, 2-1, 4-2) *3 div games left
5. Wake (1-3, 1-3, 2-5) *2 Div games left; out since FSU holds hth win.
6. NCSU (0-1, 1-3, 2-3) *4 div games left

ACC - Coastal
1. VT (2-0, 3-0, 6-0) *3 div games left
2. VA (1-0, 2-2, 4-2) *4 div games left
3. GT (2-1, 2-2, 4-2) *2 div games left
4. Miami (0-0, 2-1, 5-1) *all div games left
5. NC (0-1, 1-1, 2-3) *4 div games left
6. Duke (0-4, 0-4, 1-6) *NC left, eliminated.

Big East
1. WV (3-0, 6-1) *4 conf games left; will clinch with 3 conf wins plus loss by the 4th team, or 3 losses by UConn, USF, Cin, and Pitt.
2t RU (2-1, 4-2) *4 conf games left; lost to WV
2t Pitt (2-1, 3-4) *4 conf games left
4t UConn (1-1, 4-2) *5 conf games left
4t USF (1-1, 3-3) *5 conf games left
4t Cin (1-1, 3-3) *5 conf games left
7. Lou (0-2, 4-2) *5 conf games left
8. 'Cuse (0-3, 1-5) *4 conf games left

Big Ten
1t PSU (3-1, 6-1) *4 conf games left; plays Wisc; not Iowa
1t Wisc (3-1, 6-1) *4 conf games left; plays Iowa; not OSU
1t Iowa (3-1, 5-2) *4 conf games left; lost to OSU; plays NW, Minn
4t OSU (2-1, 4-2) *5 conf games left; lost to PSU; plays NW, Minn, and Mich
4t NW'ern (2-1, 4-2) *5 conf games left
6. Minn (2-2, 5-2) *4 conf games left; lost to PSU, Wisc; plays Iowa, OSU; Needs to win out and get key losses
7. Mich (2-2 4-3) *4 conf games left; lost to Wisc, Minn
8t Ind (1-2, 4-2) *5 conf games left
8t MSU (1-2, 4-2) *5 conf games left
10t Ill (0-3, 2-4) *5 conf games left
10t Purdue (0-3, 2-4) *5 conf games left

Big XII - North
1t Neb (1-0, 2-1, 5-1) *4 div games left
1t Mizzu (1-0, 2-1, 4-2) *4 div games left
1t KSU (1-0, 1-2, 4-2) *4 div games left
4. Colorado (0-0, 2-1, 4-2) *all 5 left
5t Kansas (0-1, 0-3, 3-3) *4 div games left
5t ISU (0-1, 0-3, 3-3) *4 div games left

Big XII - South
1. TAMU (2-0, 2-1, 4-2) *3 div games left
2. Texas (1-0, 3-0, 6-0) *4 div games left
3. TTech (0-0, 3-0, 6-0) *all 5 div games left
4t OK (0-1, 2-1, 3-3) *4 div games left
4t Baylor (0-1, 1-2, 4-2) *4 div games left
6. OKSU (0-2, 0-3, 3-3) *3 div games left

Pac-10
1t USC (3-0, 6-0) *5 conf games left; plays UCLA, Stan; beat OR; DNP ORSU
1t UCLA (3-0, 6-0) *5 conf games left; plays USC, ORSU, Stan; DNP OR
3. OR (3-1, 6-1) *4 conf games left; plays ORState; beat Stan; lost to USC; DNP UCLA
4t ORSU (2-1, 4-2) *5 conf games left
4t Stanford (2-1, 3-2) *5 conf games left
6. Cal (2-2, 5-2) *4 conf games left
7. ASU (1-2, 3-3) *5 conf games left
8t WSU (0-3, 3-3) *5 conf games left
8t AZ (0-3, 1-5) *5 conf games left
8t WA (0-3, 1-5) *5 conf games left

SEC - East
1. GA (3-0, 4-0, 6-0) *2 div games left; Clinches with win over FL and FL loss
2. FL (2-0, 3-2, 5-2) *3 div games left
3. SC (1-1, 1-3, 3-3) *3 div games left
4. Vandy (0-1, 2-2, 4-3) *4 div games left
5t KY (0-2, 0-2, 1-4) *3 div games left
5t TN (0-2, 2-2, 3-2) *3 div games left

SEC - West
1. Auburn (2-0, 3-0, 5-1) *3 div games left
2t Alabama (1-0, 4-0, 6-0) *4 div games left
2t LSU (1-0, 3-1, 4-1) *4 div games left
4. Miss (0-1, 0-3, 2-4) *4 div games left
5t AR (0-2, 0-3, 2-4) *3 div games left
5t MSU (0-2, 0-4, 2-4) *3 div games left



(edited by Zeruel on 17.10.05 1911)
Texas Kelly
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#10 Posted on 17.10.05 2133.15
Reposted on: 17.10.12 2133.26

    I don't think you're interpreting that correctly.

Any team from an independent institution Conference, USA, the Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, or Western Athletic Conference that is ranked three through six shall qualify for automatic selection.

If one or more teams other than Notre Dame qualify for automatic selection under this provision, Notre Dame shall also qualify provided it is ranked in the top ten or has won at least nine games.


Hence, since no independent institutions other than Notre Dame or any non-BCS-conference teams are in a position to claim an automatic selection, the "Notre Dame clause" is useless. Their only guaranteed way in without the clause, as a result, is the same route Utah took last year.

Like you said, if they finish with at least nine wins or in the top twelve, they have a *shot*, but since the bowls have to abide by the rankings in making their final selections, it's a slim-to-none shot.

(edited by Texas Kelly on 17.10.05 2235)
JayJayDean
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#11 Posted on 17.10.05 2255.27
Reposted on: 17.10.12 2256.07
    Originally posted by Texas Kelly
      Originally posted by JayJayDean
      I don't think you're interpreting that correctly.
    Any team from an independent institution Conference, USA, the Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, or Western Athletic Conference that is ranked three through six shall qualify for automatic selection.

    If one or more teams other than Notre Dame qualify for automatic selection under this provision, Notre Dame shall also qualify provided it is ranked in the top ten or has won at least nine games.

    Hence, since no independent institutions other than Notre Dame or any non-BCS-conference teams are in a position to claim an automatic selection, the "Notre Dame clause" is useless. Their only guaranteed way in without the clause, as a result, is the same route Utah took last year.

    Like you said, if they finish with at least nine wins or in the top twelve, they have a *shot*, but since the bowls have to abide by the rankings in making their final selections, it's a slim-to-none shot

See, I'm taking that as this:

Notre Dame automatically qualifies if it gets nine wins and is ranked in the top 12 (as do any other schools).

OR

If a Boise State or Tulane is ranked 3-6, they get one at-large spot AND Notre Dame AUTOMATICALLY gets the other at-large spot if they are in the top ten.

I think it's meant to be a reason to INCLUDE Notre Dame, not EXCLUDE them. They're putting all of the schools in the top twelve in the BCS pool, and giving the mid-majors specific entry if they're in the top six, but not if they're in 7-12. They're also giving Notre Dame a guaranteed spot if the rankings end up something like this:

1. USC (Pac 10 champ)
2. Texas (Big XII champ)
3. Oklahoma
4. Boise State
5. Georgia (SEC champ)
6. Miami (ACC champ)
7. Notre Dame
8. West Virginia (Big East champ)
9. Lousiville
10. Penn State (Big Ten champ)

The BCS HAS to take the six champs, then Boise State because they are #4 (thus in 3-6) AND Notre Dame because they are in the top ten, and Oklahoma and Louisville get shut out.

I also really think I'm right because Pat Forde (I think) alluded to a win-out scenario for Notre Dame to get in the top twelve and a BCS berth, and I don't think he'd be wrong about it. (Though, he could be.)

EDIT: I just read in the newspaper the same thing, nine wins and top twelve gets ND into the BCS. They might not get picked (yeah, right) but they would be eligible to be picked. I'm sure the rule you're referencing specifies how the Irish get an AUTOMATIC berth, along with the other mid-majors.

(edited by JayJayDean on 18.10.05 0947)
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#12 Posted on 19.10.05 0207.34
Reposted on: 19.10.12 0209.01
    Originally posted by Texas Kelly
    THE STATE OF THE BCS - Week 1

    CURRENT BCS STANDINGS
    The one thing that stands out to me in these standings, other than how firmly delinated the top five are from the rest of the pack (it's a drop-off of almost .12 percentage points from Alabama to LSU) is the utterly disgraceful way which the computer rankings have treated Notre Dame, who are two bad breaks away from being undefeated and firmly in the title hunt. (They stand at #16, ranked in the top 12 in both human polls, and a ridiculously low #25 by the computers.) Instead of having the shot to contend for a BCS berth that they deserve, the computers will make it difficult for them to get even close, even if Notre Dame wins out the rest of the way. Shame on you, machines.




So by that logic, I should be all fired up that Ohio State isn't No. 1? After all, they're just a couple plays away from being undefeated.

Look, I'm going to make this simple: Notre Dame is a two-loss team. Yes, they almost beat USC. Yes, they're better than they have been. But they still have two losses. Under the current system, that's the kiss of death. Deal with it.
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#13 Posted on 19.10.05 1836.55
Reposted on: 19.10.12 1837.27
In regards to Notre Dame, I swiped this from www.collegebcs.com :

    Originally posted by www.collegebcs.com
    Which teams are eligible for BCS bowls?

    There are eight spots in the four BCS bowl games. Six of those spots are reserved for the champions of the six BCS conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac Ten, SEC), regardless of their ranking in the BCS standings. Exception: If the #1 and #2 teams are from the same BCS-conference and neither is the champion, then the champion of that conference will not participate in the BCS.

    Yes, the Big East still gets its automatic bid, even though it is a mere shell of its former self.

    After that, two at-large teams are selected. The at-large teams must come from different conferences, unless the #1 and #2 teams are at-large and from the same conference.

    At-large teams can earn guaranteed selection in the following ways (in order of preference):

    1. Finish first or second in the BCS rankings.
    2. Finish in the top six of the BCS standings as an independent team or team from a non-BCS conference. If a team besided Notre Dame qualifies in this manner, then the Irish would also automatically qualify by winning 9 non-exempt games or finishing in the top 10 in the BCS standings.
    3. Be the highest rated at-large team remaining and finish either third or fourth in the BCS rankings. Only one team can automatically qualify under this provision.

    If at any step along the way, the two at-large spots become filled, the process stops.

    If a situation arises where there are more "automatically qualified" teams than spots available (note that this could only happen in step 2), then the bowls get to select from among the automatically qualified teams, and someone gets their feelings hurt.

    If there are still open spots after all that, then any team can be selected if it:

    # Has 9 wins against I-A opponents in non-exempt games, and
    # is rated in the top 12 of the BCS standings.


So looking at the current situation, step 1 is highly unlikely to apply, as I don't see a non-conference champion ending up #1 or #2. Step #2, where the Notre Dame rule applies, is also unlikely this year, no non-BCS conference team is going to end up in the top 6 this year. Step #3 might apply, but that can only be used to select one of the at-larges. All that means that there will be at least one open spot, if not two, after the "automatically qualifed" teams are selected. Notre Dame will have to have 9 wins and be rated in the top 12 in the BCS to be considered for one of these at-larges, but they don't automatically qualify.

That said, if they do get to 9 wins and get into the top 12 in the BCS, I think it's virtually a lock that they would get selected, so for all pratical purposes it is "automatic" though it's not literally so.
TheCow
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#14 Posted on 20.10.05 1106.54
Reposted on: 20.10.12 1111.16
    Originally posted by Crimedog
      Originally posted by Texas Kelly
      THE STATE OF THE BCS - Week 1

      CURRENT BCS STANDINGS
      The one thing that stands out to me in these standings, other than how firmly delinated the top five are from the rest of the pack (it's a drop-off of almost .12 percentage points from Alabama to LSU) is the utterly disgraceful way which the computer rankings have treated Notre Dame, who are two bad breaks away from being undefeated and firmly in the title hunt. (They stand at #16, ranked in the top 12 in both human polls, and a ridiculously low #25 by the computers.) Instead of having the shot to contend for a BCS berth that they deserve, the computers will make it difficult for them to get even close, even if Notre Dame wins out the rest of the way. Shame on you, machines.




    So by that logic, I should be all fired up that Ohio State isn't No. 1? After all, they're just a couple plays away from being undefeated.

    Look, I'm going to make this simple: Notre Dame is a two-loss team. Yes, they almost beat USC. Yes, they're better than they have been. But they still have two losses. Under the current system, that's the kiss of death. Deal with it.


I'll piggyback here. Who'd they beat? Pitt (3-4), Michigan (4-3), Washington (1-5), Purdue (2-4). Hardly a lineup that makes me tremble. They've got a high-profile Arizona St. Syndrome - win against the teams you're supposed to beat, lose close to the teams that are currently ranked. ASU had to blow a bad game to Oregon before everyone realized that. Notre Dame is certainly MUCH better than they were last year - and yeah, I'd say they should be ranked. Top 10, though, is stretching it.
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#15 Posted on 22.10.05 2153.53
Reposted on: 22.10.12 2153.57
As much as it would suck and be completely undeserved for a 9-2 ND team to get a BCS bid over some of these others, there might be a silver lining -- if they did, it's likely that my Hokies would get the opportunity to crush them in the Orange Bowl.
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#16 Posted on 23.10.05 1853.13
Reposted on: 23.10.12 1853.42
    Originally posted by Hokienautic
    As much as it would suck and be completely undeserved for a 9-2 ND team to get a BCS bid over some of these others, there might be a silver lining -- if they did, it's likely that my Hokies would get the opportunity to crush them in the Orange Bowl.






Actually, if Virginia Tech wants to have a shot at a shared national title, they might want to root for Notre Dame. Notre Dame is highest in the AP poll, which is not in the BCS formula. If Texas could somehow struggle to win a game while Tech crushes BC, Miami and FSU (conference title game), they could be #2 in the AP poll going into the bowls. A close Texas win over USC coupled with a Tech blowout of #4 ND could result in Tech getting the AP national title.
Now, why a 9-2 Notre Dame would not be an undeserving of a BCS bid team:

If you consider Va. Tech to be a team that will go unbeaten, that means BC, Miami (can we at some point discuss who Miami has beaten this season) and Florida State would pick up additional losses, thus moving Notre Dame up, and Tech would be an automatic bid.
Of the LSU, Georgia, Alabama triumverate, at least 2 of the 3 must lose a game due to Bama playing LSU in the regular season, and the SEC Title game. I think Bama will lose to either/both LSU and/or Auburn anyway, and if Shockey is hurt, I don't see Georgia beating Florida. Winner of this triumverate is an automatic bid anyway.
UCLA has to play USC, so one has to lose, and the winner probably would be in the Top 2, and an automatic bid anyway.
Unless Missouri pulls off a miracle in the Big 12 Title Game, Texas will go unbeaten and be an automatic bid. I don't care if Texas Tech beats everyone the rest of the way 143-0, they are a fraud team, and they'll drop like a stone in this weeks BCS rankings anyway.
Since I can't take Northwestern seriously (fun team to watch though), either a 1 loss Penn State or a 2 loss Ohio State will win the Big 10. Automatic bid for them.
Big East get a spot anyway.
Thus, if Va. Tech runs the table and Notre Dame runs the table, Notre Dame will be in the BCS Top 6 and no questions will be asked, and probably higher than 6 in the AP should no SEC Team be unbeaten.
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