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The 7 - Baseball - AL Wild Card Thread
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CRZ
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#41 Posted on 29.9.05 1253.48
Reposted on: 29.9.12 1253.52
Realistically, though...all this discussion of a four-way tie is a little like predicting some of those wacky Electoral College scenarios. It may be a fun academic exercise for some folkll, but it AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN.
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#42 Posted on 29.9.05 1319.00
Reposted on: 29.9.12 1321.34
Thanks for the clarification.

Agreed it is not likely for a 4 way tie at 67 losses.

So what happens if Chicago wins today to clinch, and Cleveland, NY and Boston all tie with either 67 or 68 losses (either NY and Bos both win or lose today, and Bos takes 2 of 3 this weekend) Would that mean NY and Boston play for the division, with the loser moving on to face Cleveland in a playoff for the wildcard? Does Cleveland have an advantage that way?

There are a number of ways for a tie for 2 wildcard teams to force a playoff. Boston and Cleveland are tied and are not playing each other, if they both have the same record over their last 4 games it doesn't automatically force a playoff. I don't think so cuz if Boston wins out they win the division and if Cleveland did the same, then NY would be out of the wildcard.
whatever
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#43 Posted on 29.9.05 1441.51
Reposted on: 29.9.12 1442.14
Son of a...

Congrats to the White Sox on clinching the division. You suck.

Now please commence the "rolling over" phase for your next three games.
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#44 Posted on 29.9.05 1444.35
Reposted on: 29.9.12 1444.40
    Originally posted by whatever
    Son of a...

    Congrats to the White Sox on clinching the division. You suck.

    Now please commence the "rolling over" phase for your next three games.

One good thing for the Indians with this win is that you are not going to see Contreras now, as they'll save him for Game 1 of the ALDS. Makes the job of your team a bit easier since Jose has been freaking unhittable this second half.
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#45 Posted on 29.9.05 2148.06
Reposted on: 29.9.12 2149.09
    Originally posted by CRZ
    Realistically, though...all this discussion of a four-way tie is a little like predicting some of those wacky Electoral College scenarios. It may be a fun academic exercise for some folkll, but it AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN.







Four way tie is dead, but the scenario for a 3 way tie, or at least a 2 way tie, is very strong. 2 out of 3 for Boston over New York leads to a game Monday(barring Cleveland losing at least 2). If Boston wins 2 and Chicago shows up for a game, the 3 way scenario goes into play. If Chicago lays down, well, they clinched so they can do whatever they want. But, showing up for 1 game could cause whoever they play in the first round to have to play an extra game or two, so there could be a benefit.
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#46 Posted on 30.9.05 1051.23
Reposted on: 30.9.12 1051.36
If Boston and Cleveland take 2 of 3 this weekend, Boston plays in NY on Monday, and on Tuesday, Cleveland would play at Boston (if NY beats Boston on Monday) or NY would play at Cleveland.

By the way, WTF with Boston picking up Mike Stanton? I mean, he is still Mike Stanton, right?
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#47 Posted on 30.9.05 1054.52
Reposted on: 30.9.12 1054.55
    Originally posted by jfkfc
    By the way, WTF with Boston picking up Mike Stanton? I mean, he is still Mike Stanton, right?


I think the Red Sox picked up Stanton to prevent the Yankees from using him to get guys like Nixon and Ortiz out. I've never heard of a trade made this late in the season.
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#48 Posted on 30.9.05 1146.06
Reposted on: 30.9.12 1146.07
Running the numbers: there's a set of sixteen outcomes (Cleveland can win 0-3 games * Boston can win 0-3 games) left in the season. Giving them an an equal chance of happening, you end up with this chart:


CLE BOS NYY
OUT 25% 31.25% 12.5%
WC 50% 18.75% 6.25%
EAST 0% 25% 62.5%
XTRA 25% 25% 18.75%

NOT OUT 75% 68.75% 87.5%


WC and EAST are outright winners. XTRA is any 163/164 extra game situation.

There's a 31.25% chance no team will have been eliminated by Monday morning, the same as Boston being eliminated. And a 6.25% chance of a three way tie.
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#49 Posted on 30.9.05 1233.30
Reposted on: 30.9.12 1234.44
    Originally posted by gugs
      Originally posted by jfkfc
      By the way, WTF with Boston picking up Mike Stanton? I mean, he is still Mike Stanton, right?


    I think the Red Sox picked up Stanton to prevent the Yankees from using him to get guys like Nixon and Ortiz out. I've never heard of a trade made this late in the season.


Exactly. Before the Yankees could get him (they were rumored to be interested, too) to get out Ortiz and Nixon, now the Sox can use him to get out Giambi and Matsui.
whatever
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#50 Posted on 30.9.05 1251.11
Reposted on: 30.9.12 1259.01
    Originally posted by thecubsfan
    Running the numbers: there's a set of sixteen outcomes (Cleveland can win 0-3 games * Boston can win 0-3 games) left in the season. Giving them an an equal chance of happening, you end up with this chart:


    CLE BOS NYY
    OUT 25% 31.25% 12.5%
    WC 50% 18.75% 6.25%
    EAST 0% 25% 62.5%
    XTRA 25% 25% 18.75%

    NOT OUT 75% 68.75% 87.5%


    WC and EAST are outright winners. XTRA is any 163/164 extra game situation.

    There's a 31.25% chance no team will have been eliminated by Monday morning, the same as Boston being eliminated. And a 6.25% chance of a three way tie.

I read this and slooowly start curling into the fetal position. This is gonna be a looong weekend. And no OSU/Brownies to take my mind off of it.
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#51 Posted on 30.9.05 1309.20
Reposted on: 30.9.12 1319.01
Before we get to Monday AM, what are the odds that Sunday's games (last of the regular season) don't actually mean anything? This happens if NY and Cleveland win their next 2 games each.

After last year, when the Yankees had to win one of 4 from the Red Sox and couldn't get it done, I don't think they'll take it lightly they can win one of their next 3.

I sure get the feeling that the NFL is rooting for Sunday's games to be meaningless. They don't want their NFL ratings to be down. For the same reason, they also have to be hoping to avoid a playoff of any kind - would a tiebraker playoff pre-empt Monday Night Football? (Which network has the coverage this year?)

A tiebraker could also mess with the 3 hr special season premier of RAW on USA.
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#52 Posted on 30.9.05 1415.10
Reposted on: 30.9.12 1418.09
    Originally posted by jfkfc
    If Boston and Cleveland take 2 of 3 this weekend, Boston plays in NY on Monday, and on Tuesday, Cleveland would play at Boston (if NY beats Boston on Monday) or NY would play at Cleveland.

    By the way, WTF with Boston picking up Mike Stanton? I mean, he is still Mike Stanton, right?







Mike Stanton at 5% of what he once was is still better than Chad Harville.
As for trades this late, back in the early 90's, the Braves traded for Damon Berryhill on the next to last/last day of the season after Greg Olsen broke his leg. Wasn't eligible for the post-season, but that gave them insurance for the next season.
I doubt Monday would be a night game, as ESPN wouldn't want to go head-to-head with MNF and damage ratings on their sister network. Also, if a 3-way were to occur, a day game allows for travel for Tuesday. And, if not a 3 way, it allows for the Angels to know where they are flying to for the ALDS.
thecubsfan
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#53 Posted on 30.9.05 1452.12
Reposted on: 30.9.12 1452.15

    Before we get to Monday AM, what are the odds that Sunday's games (last of the regular season) don't actually mean anything? This happens if NY and Cleveland win their next 2 games each.


The only way this can happen is that scenerio. All other combinations leave the worst team no more than 1 game out of the last spot.

odds, going into last day
tie for last spot: 43.75%
one team is a game out: 50% (more likely to be Boston than the other two teams combined)
one team is two games out: 6.25% (only BOS)


    I doubt Monday would be a night game, as ESPN wouldn't want to go head-to-head with MNF and damage ratings on their sister network.


The '98 playoff game (CHC/SFG) was a night game; I did poorly on a night class midterm because I was in a hurry to see as much as possible. I believe the '99 playoff game (CIN/NYM) was the same - both Monday Night affair.

While you're going to hurt MNF, you're going to be giving away a lot of viewers if you have the game during the day. ESPN is a good corporate partner, but they're not morons - they're not passing up a chance to BOS @ NYY at night if it comes to it. (Now, what they do if this happens next year, when they have MNF themselves on ESPN, who knows.)
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#54 Posted on 30.9.05 1520.35
Reposted on: 30.9.12 1529.04
    Originally posted by whatever
      Originally posted by thecubsfan
      Running the numbers: there's a set of sixteen outcomes (Cleveland can win 0-3 games * Boston can win 0-3 games) left in the season. Giving them an an equal chance of happening, you end up with this chart:


      CLE BOS NYY
      OUT 25% 31.25% 12.5%
      WC 50% 18.75% 6.25%
      EAST 0% 25% 62.5%
      XTRA 25% 25% 18.75%

      NOT OUT 75% 68.75% 87.5%


      WC and EAST are outright winners. XTRA is any 163/164 extra game situation.

      There's a 31.25% chance no team will have been eliminated by Monday morning, the same as Boston being eliminated. And a 6.25% chance of a three way tie.

    I read this and slooowly start curling into the fetal position. This is gonna be a looong weekend. And no OSU/Brownies to take my mind off of it.


Even with those odds you have to feel good about Cleveland's chances. With Chicago already having clinched the division title and home field for at least the first round, you'd figure that they'd rest some starters and won't extend Buerhle or Garland past five or six innings depending on how they want to set their rotation up for the ALDS. The only way the Tribe controls its own destiny with a sweep or two out of three (clinching at least a playoff).
thecubsfan
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#55 Posted on 30.9.05 1706.24
Reposted on: 30.9.12 1713.43
Ozzie Guillen's lineup for tonight

S. Podsednik lf
B. Anderson cf
R. Gload 1b
J. Borchard dh
J. Crede 3b
T. Perez rf
C. Widger c
G. Blum ss
W. Harris 2b

The big question: they couldn't find one more guy off the bench so Podsednik could have the night off too?
It's False
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#56 Posted on 30.9.05 1731.37
Reposted on: 30.9.12 1740.50
    Originally posted by thecubsfan
    The big question: they couldn't find one more guy off the bench so Podsednik could have the night off too?


You'd think that with Podsednik having spent some time on the DL recently, he'd be the first one to be benched, but I guess that's why I'm not Ozzie.

Having said that, this is Cleveland's series to lose. If they miss the playoffs, they'll have no one but themselves to blame, because Chicago's practically handing these three games to them.
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#57 Posted on 30.9.05 2358.57
Reposted on: 30.9.12 2359.01
9 possible outcomes.


CLE BOS NYY
OUT 44.44% 11.11% 11.11%
WC 22.22% 33.33% 11.11%
EAST 0.00% 33.33% 55.56%
XTRA 33.33% 22.22% 22.22%

NOT OUT 55.56% 88.89% 88.89%


Odds of a playoff: 33%

No one can be eliminated tommorow; whichever East team loses will either be tied or one game up on the Indians, so it will come down to the final game of the season.

BOS and NYY's magic number is 2. 1 win or 1 Cleveland loss at least insures a playoff.

1 chance in 9 for the three way tie, but it's over if Cleveland doesn't win.
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#58 Posted on 1.10.05 1524.35
Reposted on: 1.10.12 1525.07
With the Yankees winning 8-4 right now and Cleveland already having lost, it looks like the Yanks are your AL East Champs. Even with the loss today, Boston still controls its own Wild Card fate with a win tomorrow with Schilling on the hill. The Indians basically fell into the only scenario (two losses and Boston and New York split the first two) where they don't even control their own fate for at least a one game playoff. With Elarton going tomorrow, I'd say the smart move would be to
bring Lee back on three day's rest for a start.

And whatever, it might now be time to curl up into the fetal position or at least time to pray for a Yankees win.
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#59 Posted on 1.10.05 1602.02
Reposted on: 1.10.12 1602.55
You mean after the Yankees' horrible start, the Red Sox's inconsistancy, the Indians' hot streak, the White Sox's near-collapse and everything that's happened in between, it's just the status quo all over again with the Yankees atop the AL East and the Red Sox seizing the wild card?

God, I hate baseball sometimes.

(edited by It's False on 1.10.05 1402)
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#60 Posted on 1.10.05 1650.33
Reposted on: 1.10.12 1654.46
If Boston can't win 1 out of the last 3 at home (counting a possible 1 game playoff), they don't deserve to go to the playoffs.
FOX still has absolutely no idea how to cover baseball. When the feed to Red Sox markets has the Red Sox relegated to the tiny box for an entire half inning, they prove their cluelessness.
Do you think FOX and ESPN executives are praying to the TV gods that Boston gets the Wild Card, providing Boston/Chicago and L.A./New York as the markets for the 1st Round? The San Diego NLDS series will be broadcast on public access.
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