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The 7 - Current Events & Politics - It's now definitive: Man is causing global warming and it is a bad thing.
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Guru Zim
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#1 Posted on 18.2.05 1326.48
Reposted on: 18.2.12 1326.52
I am posting this because many people have made reference to the different theories of global warming here in the past. At this point, those arguments are basically equivalent to flat earth theory.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-1489955,00.html

Here are a few selected quotes:


    "The debate about whether there is a global warming signal now is over, at least for rational people," said Tim Barnett, of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California. "The models got it right. If a politician stands up and says the uncertainty is too great to believe these models, that is no longer tenable."



    t found that natural variation in the Earths climate, or changes in solar activity or volcanic eruptions, which have been suggested as alternative explanations for rising temperatures, could not explain the data collected in the real world. Models based on man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, however, matched the observations almost precisely.

    "What absolutely nailed it was the greenhouse model," Dr Barnett told the American Association for the Advancement of Science conference in Washington. Two models, one designed in Britain and one here in the US, got it almost exactly. We were stunned. They did it so well it was almost unbelieveable."





    "All the potential culprits have been ruled out except one.

    "This is perhaps the most compelling evidence yet that global warming is happening right now, and it shows that we can successfully simulate its past and its likely future evolution. The statistical significance of these results is far too strong to be merely dismissed and should wipe out much of the uncertainty about the reality of global warming."




    "We have got a serious problem ahead of us. The debate is not have we got a clear global warming signal, the debate is what we are going to do about it."


You know, I like industry, jobs, etc. - but so far this is the only planet tha we know of that has life on it. We need to stop bickering and acknowledge that this is a real issue, and take steps to address it. The time for partisan spin should be over now.

I guess I'm letting you know that I'm going to trust the scientists at the Scripps institute of Oceanography (Some of the brightest minds in the world) and the scientific method over speculation and party talking points.

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CRZ
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#2 Posted on 18.2.05 1330.18
Reposted on: 18.2.12 1330.39
    Originally posted by Guru Zim
    I am posting this because
...I'm trolling somebody but I won't say who.
Grimis
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#3 Posted on 18.2.05 1430.44
Reposted on: 18.2.12 1432.35
(deleted by CRZ on 18.2.05 1448)
DrDirt
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#4 Posted on 21.2.05 0738.16
Reposted on: 21.2.12 0744.20
Guru, we can address this issue and do so without destroying civilization as we know it. We simply need leaders with the courage (on both sides) to start moving forward to develop the new technologies necessary. And for opponents of nuclear energy, please help us to move ahead and develop the technology and perhaps even figure out fusion. Contrary to popular belief, if we get off our butts, this wont cripple but spur the worldwide economy, especially if we can get the hell away from fossil fuel.
wmatistic
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#5 Posted on 22.2.05 2328.34
Reposted on: 22.2.12 2328.42
Ok, it would be a lot more compelling if they actually included some of the data.

I'm not against the idea that we are responsible for Global Warming, I just think that's it such a difficult thing to prove. We have evidence suggesting the Earth has gone through warming trends in the past. Huge warming trends, as well as of course ice ages. But we don't know specifics, because we don't have the data and never will.

So while this study may show a trend that matches greenhouse gas emissions, the article doesn't give us that data and thus we don't know what to think.

Personally I don't know how much impact we can have. I think it's plausible that we could be having an impact, but do you think that if we saw an ice age coming we could prevent it by upping our greenhouse emmisions? I don't think anyone realistically believes that, and thus I would say our impact is somewhat minimal. The Earth will do what it will do, and we can't stop it.

Again, if we are having an impact and it's negative, we should work to correct that. I'm just not sold yet. I think it's more possible that we are having a small impact and the rest is due to the Earth.

It will be interesting to see the actual data on this. But in the end, it's just a comparison. There isn't any link between the two that can be proven...yet. The tempurature is increasing, as are our emissions. That doesn't in any way rule out other theories. The two things could be happening independant of each other.

Really need to see the evidence here.
Guru Zim
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#6 Posted on 23.2.05 0022.41
Reposted on: 23.2.12 0023.00
I've been warned that I am apparently trolling here, so I'm going to only post a small response.

I'm not sure that if you had the data that you would be more qualified than the very highly qualified scientists who are currently saying this is definitive. That's not meant as a knock against you - it's just a sign of how highly regarded the Scripps Institute of Oceanography is, for example.

Granted, I'm biased because I attended UCSD, which is affiliated with them.

Here's a link to more information. http://sio.ucsd.edu/about/overview.cfm

Anyway these guys have seen all of the data, and they are saying that everything else is ruled out. That's good enough for me.
wmatistic
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#7 Posted on 23.2.05 0206.04
Reposted on: 23.2.12 0206.28
I get what you're saying.

But understand, to rule everything else out, they would need to have data from the history of this planet that they can't and won't ever have.

I'm not saying they are wrong. Just that it's silly to think we fully understand the workings of this planet. As smart as they may be, they seem to not understand that nothing, and I mean nothing, should ever be held as absolute in this regard. We don't even know how our planet got here, so how are we supposed to be sure about what it's doing and what impact we have on it?

If we stop emissions and global warming ceases, great. But global warming has occured long before we existed, and likely will again. So for these people to think they have all the answers is...well not very scientific.
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#8 Posted on 23.2.05 0813.37
Reposted on: 23.2.12 0814.58
    Originally posted by wmatistic
    I get what you're saying.

    But understand, to rule everything else out, they would need to have data from the history of this planet that they can't and won't ever have.

    I'm not saying they are wrong. Just that it's silly to think we fully understand the workings of this planet. As smart as they may be, they seem to not understand that nothing, and I mean nothing, should ever be held as absolute in this regard. We don't even know how our planet got here, so how are we supposed to be sure about what it's doing and what impact we have on it?

    If we stop emissions and global warming ceases, great. But global warming has occured long before we existed, and likely will again. So for these people to think they have all the answers is...well not very scientific.


The point to me is really quite simple. We cannot afford to wait until we have 100% proof. All the accumulating evidence will never convince some, however, we cannot afford to take the chance we are not causing global warning.

No we don't understand all the workings of our planet but we are coming to understand our role in it. Even if global warming is a myth, it is in the best interests of everyone to desrease our dependency on fossil fuels and the sooner we start, the better.
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#9 Posted on 23.2.05 1740.35
Reposted on: 23.2.12 1747.22
Personally, I don't discount the guy's theory out of hand, but I am not going to put any stock in it until it is peer reviewed and stands up to scrutiny from people who ARE qualified to judge the data.

Until then, I am not going to go gaga over it. As I understand it, a single volcanic eruption puts out more greenhouse gas than all of humanity does in a single year. And there are usually several active volcanoes in the world every year. I personally can't imagine a model in which our paltry contribution can affect the climate as dramatically and as quickly as they claim it does.

I guess that is my point - I don't doubt that we are having an effect on the environment, and I am all for doing what we can (within reason) to keep our world clean. But whenever anyone comes up with radical and counter-intuitive solutions to what I view as a pretty simple problem, I revolt against it.

What I would like to see from the Chicken Little types out there who are worried about Global Warming is less barking, and more productive work. Come up with reasonable and cost effective alternatives to our current way of doing things, alternatives that people will actually take advantage of. Seems much more responsible, and lends much more credibility to their ideas than when they chain themselves to trees or blow up McDonald's.

As I said - this guy COULD be right. And if he is, the first reaction of any of the "green" folks out there is to prance around and do a little "I told you so" dance, proclaiming the evidence of proof that industry is evil. That isn't going to solve anything, but the better mousetrap will. I believe that most of this country doesn't view this as a real problem now - but I would take the people who think it IS a lot more seriously if they were working towards reasonable and plausible solutions to the problem. Other than turning over billions of dollars to some international protocol, and calling it a day.
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