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The 7 - Baseball - Hall of Fame Time Again Register and log in to post!
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BigDaddyLoco
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#1 Posted on 22.12.04 2251.51
Reposted on: 22.12.11 2252.14
With results being announced Jan. 4th it may be time to crank up the old debates again...

Returning players
(with last year's vote total; you need 75 percent for election)

Ryne Sandberg (61.1%)
Bruce Sutter (59.5%)
Jim Rice (54.6%)
Andre Dawson (50.0%)
Rich Gossage (40.7%)
Lee Smith (36.6%)
Bert Blyleven (35.4%)
Jack Morris (26.2%)
Steve Garvey (24.3%)
Tommy John (21.9%)
Alan Trammell (13.8%)
Don Mattingly (12.9%)
Dave Concepcion (11.3%)
Dave Parker (10.5%)
Dale Murphy (8.5%)


New players:

Jim Abbott
Wade Boggs
Tom Candiotti
Chili Davis
Mark Langston
Jack McDowell
Willie McGee
Jeff Montgomery
Otis Nixon
Tony Phillips
Terry Steinbach
Darryl Strawberry

I'd vote for three. Boggs, Goose Gossage for being an intimidator and a shut down guy before there was a such a thing and Jack Morris for being that guy, maybe the only guy, you wanted to start a big time game.

Promote this thread!
geemoney
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#2 Posted on 22.12.04 2311.34
Reposted on: 22.12.11 2311.44
Sandberg, Dawson and Boggs would get my vote.
BigVitoMark
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#3 Posted on 22.12.04 2354.59
Reposted on: 22.12.11 2359.01
3,000 hits still gets you in IMO, so I would vote for Boggs. Dawson was pretty good, but didn't really even come close to 500 HRs, only had one MVP award, never won a championship...that's pretty good, but not great.

I've never been a fan of letting guys in the the second, third, fourth, etc. time around. You are either in or you're out. If an argument has to be made for you, you're not in. The Hall of Fame should be reserved for only the absolute best, and the absolute best are obvious choices.
CRZ
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#4 Posted on 23.12.04 0135.00
Reposted on: 23.12.11 0136.42
VOTE OTIS
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#5 Posted on 23.12.04 0203.41
Reposted on: 23.12.11 0205.11
    Originally posted by geemoney
    Sandberg, Dawson and Boggs would get my vote.


Ditto. Sandberg was a rock on a solid Cubs team, Dawson was just very good, and Boggs has 3000 hits.
Downtown Bookie
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#6 Posted on 23.12.04 0218.22
Reposted on: 23.12.11 0218.30
    Originally posted by BigVitoMark
    I've never been a fan of letting guys in the the second, third, fourth, etc. time around. You are either in or you're out. If an argument has to be made for you, you're not in. The Hall of Fame should be reserved for only the absolute best, and the absolute best are obvious choices.
Joe DiMaggio wasn't voted in until his third time around. I'd love to hear someone argue that he wasn't one of the absolute best to ever play the game.
SC
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#7 Posted on 23.12.04 0219.14
Reposted on: 23.12.11 0220.26
Just for fun, the Bill James HOF Standards for each of the players up for election:


Standards for Average HOFer: ~ 50

Standards
Wade Boggs 57.5
Bert Blyleven 50.0
Tommy John 44.0
Andre Dawson 43.7
Jim Rice 42.9
Ryne Sandberg 42.7
Dave Parker 41.1
Alan Trammell 40.4
Jack Morris 39.0
Dale Murphy 34.3
Don Mattingly 34.1
Tony Phillips 32.7
Steve Garvey 31.5
Darryl Strawberry 29.6
Dave Concepcion 29.1
Chili Davis 29.0
Terry Steinbach 25.0
Mark Langston 23.0
Willie McGee 22.9
Goose Gossage 19.0
Jack McDowell 18.0
Bruce Sutter 17.0
Otis Nixon 15.1
Lee Smith 13.0
Tom Candiotti 11.5
Jim Abbott 6.0


Jeff Montgomery's wasn't listed and I'm sure not going to the trouble to figure out that Montgomery's is roughly the same as the other closers.

The Standards scale is skewed against closers as it doesn't figure saves into the equation, but this is actually pretty accurate to the Hall of Fame's voters own slant against closers thus far. Gossage, Sutter and Smith are all among the best at the position, and Montgomery saved 304 games too (good for 16th all-time, right behind Goose and a few ahead of Sutter). I don't know how to figure in an eventual change of heart regarding closers, that's for someone smarter than me, or more psychic or something.

I didn't use James' HOF Monitor because with that number, pretty much all these guys that were real good ballplayers are measured as likely Hall of Famers. The Standards number is a little harsher.

Obviously you have Boggs as the shoo-in candidate. 3010 hits, career .328/.415 hitter, walked almost twice as much as he struck out, two Gold Gloves in the latter portion of his career. He was a phenomenal batter and among the best third basemen ever.

Blyleven and John are both interesting. Blyleven has 287 career wins, 3.31 ERA, 3701 strikeouts (fifth all-time behind two Hall of Famers and two can't-miss Hall of Famers). Tommy John has 288 wins, but 1500 less strikeouts than Blyleven. Both of them played forever.

I used to think Andre Dawson was a Hall of Famer but I've cooled on him the more I looked at his numbers. He was an overrated hitter and considering that past 1983 his speed was never really a major factor again, you're stuck looking at his power, and you've got 438 home runs, which is 62 shy of automatic entry/automatic debate. The rest of his numbers (.279/.323/.482) don't work in his favor. He has the 314 steals, but 208 of those are pre-84, and he played through 1996.

Ryne Sandberg is interesting because of his era, he is probably the best second basemen unless you want to count Craig Biggio as the same era. 282 homers, 344 steals, .285/.344/.452 hitter, plus nine Gold Gloves and the '84 NL MVP. I think Sandberg has to go in.

Jim Rice is a hot topic every year. Rice was a very good hitter and I don't really care if he was a prick or not. Better hitter than Dawson, really.

And of course, it's time to go, "What could've been..." about Strawberry again.

So I'd vote for Boggs and Sandberg for sure. Gossage and Sutter were fine closers, but this revelation of looking at their numbers and seeing that Jeff Montgomery, who gets no play like those guys have gotten, stacks up pretty well against them has made me think twice about either of them.

(edited by ScottChrist on 23.12.04 0343)
Guru Zim
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#8 Posted on 23.12.04 0225.43
Reposted on: 23.12.11 0228.05
I'm curious to know why you skip past Rice.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/riceji01.shtml

Thoughts?

Is he out because he never got to a magic number on any of his stats?

Also, how did he play 163 games in '78 without getting traded?

(edited by Guru Zim on 23.12.04 0027)
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#9 Posted on 23.12.04 0233.21
Reposted on: 23.12.11 0235.31
    Originally posted by Guru Zim
    Also, how did he play 163 games in '78 without getting traded?
Tie-breaking playoff games count as regular season games. That's also how Maury Wills played in 165 games for the Dodgers in 1962.
Grimis
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#10 Posted on 23.12.04 0632.41
Reposted on: 23.12.11 0633.03
    Originally posted by Guru Zim
    Is he out because he never got to a magic number on any of his stats?
Rice's problem is the fact that at no time in his career did he ever dominate the competition. To be fair, .298 and 382 career HR's should warrant serious consideration, but I don't think it is enough to put him over the top. Especially the home runs, considering these HOF-eligible players have more homers than he, even though his numbers are better overall than this entire list:

Dave Kingman- 442(.236 career average)
Darrell Evans- 414(.248 career average)
Dale Murphy- 398(.266 career average; 2 MVPs though)
Joe Carter- 396(.259 career average)
Graig Nettles- 390(.248 career average)
Dwight Evans 385(.272 career average)
Frank Howard 382(.273 career average)

And Jose Canseco will pass him too(462 HR, .262 average)
jfkfc
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#11 Posted on 23.12.04 0825.19
Reposted on: 23.12.11 0825.37
    Originally posted by Grimis
    Rice's problem is the fact that at no time in his career did he ever dominate the competition. To be fair, .298 and 382 career HR's should warrant serious consideration, but I don't think it is enough to put him over the top. Especially the home runs, considering these HOF-eligible players have more homers than he, even though his numbers are better overall than this entire list:

    Dave Kingman- 442(.236 career average)
    Darrell Evans- 414(.248 career average)
    Dale Murphy- 398(.266 career average; 2 MVPs though)
    Joe Carter- 396(.259 career average)
    Graig Nettles- 390(.248 career average)
    Dwight Evans 385(.272 career average)
    Frank Howard 382(.273 career average)

    And Jose Canseco will pass him too(462 HR, .262 average)
I would say that while Rice was better than every guy on that list, he will probably be a bubble guy forever. I would not get all excited if he didn't get in, and I wouldn't get pissed if he did. Watching him play in his prime, I always thought he was one of the better hitters, and most feared (in his prime), in the game at the time. Of all time, less so. If you lopped off his first year and his last three, his BA is .304, and his HR/season is a hair over 29, and he did lead the league in HR three times, winning the MVP once. A great career, a great player, no doubt, but maybe not in the eyes of the voters.

Boggs will get in, I have zero doubts, on this years ballot. I thought Ryno would get in last year, and I wonder if he has lost steam with the writers. To me, he was one of the better second basemen in baseball, that I have seen. That said, I really believe that if he gets in, Kent will eventually get in also, and before today, I had never thought about how similar their numbers are (Kent has more HR, RBI, and SB at this point). Knowing Donnie Baseball will probably never get in is a toughie. His back just plain went out too early, because he, IMO, was on his way.

The huge dam holding out all of the elite closers will break sooner or later. I think recognizing Eck was the second step, with Rollie being the first. Lee Smith, to me, is the epitome of a save whore, and his record is overrated. A much better than average pitcher, by all means, but there are closers better than him: Goose, Sutter, and Quis. I think that if Tom Henke had closed for a few more years, or had just pitched more before 1986, he would be right up there. He was insanely dominating, and the anchor of the two series winning teams. Once those three guys get in, I wouldn't have as much of a problem with Smith.

Dawson, Blyleven, Morris, Garvey, John, Parker, and Murphy, I think, will probably be on the same plane as Rice, with just less of a chance. I believe that no one would be arguing for Bert or Tommy if Sutton and Neikro (and to a point, Perry and Jenkins) hadn't gotten in. Personal opinion, but I don't think any of those six pitchers are guys that you looked over at your buddy (or whoever) while watching them pitch and said, "Wow, this guy's one of the best pitchers EVER!"
StaggerLee
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#12 Posted on 23.12.04 0834.33
Reposted on: 23.12.11 0834.40
    Originally posted by Guru Zim
    Also, how did he play 163 games in '78 without getting traded?

    (edited by Guru Zim on 23.12.04 0027)


Bucky Dent game counts as a regular season game I believe.

Morris, Boggs and Sandberg would get my vote.
MARTYEWR
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#13 Posted on 23.12.04 1010.54
Reposted on: 23.12.11 1011.29
My votes would go to Boggs, Sandberg, Blyleven, Dawson, Gossage, and Trammell.
SC
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#14 Posted on 23.12.04 1016.25
Reposted on: 23.12.11 1021.58
I would really love to see the logic behind Jack Morris in the Hall of Fame ahead of Blyleven or John.


ERA WHIP W K K/9 ERA+
Morris 3.90 1.30 254 2478 5.83 105
Blyleven 3.31 1.20 287 3701 6.70 118
John 3.34 1.28 288 2245 4.29 111


It's worth noting that Jack Morris never once posted a sub-3 ERA. Morris was a very good pitcher for a number of years, but a Hall of Famer? I just can't see it, especially not if you're saying you'd take him over two guys who were clearly superior pitchers, particularly Blyleven, who I think I've made up my mind deserves to be in the Hall of Fame yesterday. Indeed I will stick with that now.
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#15 Posted on 23.12.04 1056.27
Reposted on: 23.12.11 1059.01
    Originally posted by ScottChrist
    It's worth noting that Jack Morris never once posted a sub-3 ERA. Morris was a very good pitcher for a number of years, but a Hall of Famer? I just can't see it, especially not if you're saying you'd take him over two guys who were clearly superior pitchers, particularly Blyleven, who I think I've made up my mind deserves to be in the Hall of Fame yesterday.
Right-on. Morris would be a guy I would want having to pitch the big game, but not as even a # 1 guy at the top of the roation day in, day out, much less a HOF guy.

(edited by Grimis on 23.12.04 1156)
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#16 Posted on 23.12.04 1100.53
Reposted on: 23.12.11 1100.53
Jack Morris, Alan Trammell, and Wade Boggs.
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#17 Posted on 23.12.04 1135.56
Reposted on: 23.12.11 1144.09
To me, and so far everyone else, Boggs is a lock for the HOF. 3,00 is, at least right now, one of those magic numbers that will make someone all but a lock to get in, but I think in the years to come, that number, as well as 500 Home Runs, will lose a lot of its significance.

I'd say Sandberg is in as well. You can make the case that some of his numbers are not really in the stratosphere, but that's not the point for me. Since someone brought up Bill James, one of his ways to determine a Hall of Famer is, "was he the best at his position in the major leagues at any time?" And the answer with Sandberg is yes, he was undoubtedly the best Second Baseman in baseball for just about a decade. I think that merits inclusion. If he didn't get in, however, I wouldn't think that it would be a travesty.

As for Rice, I think he's really close numbers-wise. Maybe he's a shade below the average Hall of Famer. But I don't really remember Rice, so I don't have a first hand sense of what people thought of him when he was in his prime. Was it, "Wow, the Red Sox are coming to town, we get to see THE Jim Rice," or was it "Yeah, Jim Rice, he's pretty good, but he's no _____."

Also someone can play 163+ games if there is a regular season tie. Like if a game is 4-4 in the 7th inning, and it gets called due to the weather, that's an official game, and all of the stats get counted.

(edited by BigSteve on 23.12.04 1237)
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#18 Posted on 23.12.04 1214.11
Reposted on: 23.12.11 1214.14
Boggs and Sandberg will probably get the call. I'd put Alan Trammell, Bert Blyleven and Dave Parker in as well.

I'm in the minority by making a case for Parker, but he was THE best player in the game around 1976 to 1979. That was a period when offensive numbers weren't at their current Nintendo standards, but the Cobra was arguably the best at the plate then, even winning the MVP in 1978. His arm was incredible, too. He ran into trouble around 1982, but made a small turnaround and was a Brewers All-Star in 1990. He wasn't a big favorite of the press, so that will hurt him. I'd put Parker in before Jim Rice.... but I'm wearing black and gold pin-striped tinted glasses. After sitting through the small promo hype of "25th Anniversary of the We Are Family Bucs", it'd be cool if the year ended with a Blyleven and Parker selection (only way it'd be better would be if Kent Tekulve got in).

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#19 Posted on 23.12.04 1241.42
Reposted on: 23.12.11 1241.49
If Sandberg doesn't get in, it will be a traveshamockery.

That is all.
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#20 Posted on 23.12.04 1345.36
Reposted on: 23.12.11 1345.44
I wouldn't throw bricks at my TV if Blyleven, Morris, Sutter, Smith, Gossage, Rice or Dawson made it in.

But they won't. Sandberg and Boggs and that's all they'll pick this year.


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