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The 7 - Football - Week 15 Playoff Seedings (Post-Fin win) Register and log in to post!
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Zeruel
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#1 Posted on 19.12.04 2345.23
Reposted on: 19.12.11 2345.28
***FIXED ERRORS***

For the non-playoff teams, I'm using the Wild Card tie-breakers. Why? Because I'm calculating how far back they're from the #6 seed.
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2.
The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the three Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.

I have added markers for teams eliminated from playoffs. Uppercase omega, Ω, for teams out of the playoffs, lower case omega, ω, for teams that have been eliminated from their divisional title, but still alive for a wildcard spot.

x-Clinched Wildcard spot
y-Clinched Divisional title
z-Clinched Homefield advantage
*-Clinched 1st round bye

ω-Eliminated from divisional title contention
Ω-Eliminated from playoff contention

AFC
1. y-Pittsburgh Steelers 13-1 (Beat NE) AFC North Champion
2. y-New England Patriots 12-2 (Lost to Pittsburgh) AFC East Champion
3. y-San Diego Chargers 11-3 (8-2 in AFC) AFC West Champion
4. y-Indianapolis Colts 11-3 (7-3 in AFC) AFC South Champion
5. ω-New York Jets 10-4 (7-4 in AFC) Wildcard
6. ω-Jacksonville Jaguars 8-6 (5-5 in AFC; beat Buffalo on AFC record, beat Denver on SoV, tied Baltimore on SoV 55-57 (0.491) beat Baltimore on SoS 108-88 (0.551)) (Wildcard)


7. ω-Baltimore Ravens 8-6 (5-5 in AFC, Beat NY Jets; beat Buffalo on AFC record, beat Denver on SoV, tied Jacksonville on SoV, lost to Jacksonville on SoS 106-89 (0.544) with New England still to play, but it won't affect the seeding)
8. ω-Denver Broncos 8-6 (5-5 in AFC; beat Buffalo on AFC record, lost to Jacksonville and Baltimore on SoV 47-74 (0.388)) (0 GB)
9. ω-Buffalo Bills 8-6 (5-6 in AFC) (0 GB)

10. ω-Houston Texans 6-8 (5-5 in AFC, beat Cincinnati on AFC record, beat KC) (2 GB)
11. ω-Kansas City Chiefs 6-8 (5-5 in AFC) (lost to Houston) (2 GB)
12. ω-Cincinnati Bengals 6-8 (4-8 in AFC) (2 GB)

13. Ω-Oakland Raiders 5-9 (3-7 in AFC)
14. Ω-Tennessee Titans 4-10 (3-8 in AFC)
15. Ω-Cleveland Browns 3-11 (2-8 in AFC)
16. Ω-Miami Dolphins 3-11 (1-9 in AFC)

Wildcard Weekend
#6 Jags @ #3 Chargers
#5 Jets @ #4 Colts
Divisional games
#3 Chargers or Winner of Jets-Colts @ #2 Patriots
Winner of Jets-Colts or #6 Jags @ #1 Steelers

x-Clinched Wildcard spot
y-Clinched Divisional title
z-Clinched Homefield advantage & 1st round bye
*-Clinched 1st round bye

ω-Eliminated from divisional title contention
Ω-Eliminated from playoff contention

NFC
1. z-Philadelphia Eagles 13-1 NFC East Champion
2. *y-Atlanta Falcons 11-3 NFC South Champion
3. x-Green Bay Packers 8-6 (7-3 in NFC) NFC North Leader
4. Seattle Seahawks 7-7 (6-4 in NFC, Lost to Rams twice; beat Minnesota) NFC West Leader
5. Minnesota Vikings 8-6 (5-5 in NFC, Lost to GB) Wildcard
6. ω-Carolina Panthers 6-8 (Beat TB, NO, St. Louis; 5-5 in NFC) Wildcard


7. St. Louis Rams 6-8 (6-5 in NFC; lost to Carolina, NO) (0 GB)
8. ω-New Orleans Saints 6-8 (4-6 in NFC, Beat Dallas) (0 GB)

9. ω-Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-9 (4-6 in NFC) (Beat Detroit and NYG on NFC Record; Beat Arizona on common games 3-4 (0.429)) (1 GB)
10. ω-Detroit Lions 5-9 (Beat Chicago, 4-7 in NFC) (Beat NYG (week 7), and beat Arizona (week 13)) (1 GB)
11. ω-Chicago Bears 5-9 (Lost to Detroit, 4-6 in NFC) (NYG lost to both Chicago and Arizona; tied Arizona on SoV 27-43; beats Arizona on SoS .474 to .454) (1 GB)
12. Arizona Cardinals 5-9 (4-6 in NFC) (lost to TB on common games 3-5 (0.375); lost to Det, lost to Chicago on SoV, beat NYG Week 10)(1 GB)
13. ω-New York Giants 5-9 (4-7 in NFC; beat Dallas, 2-1 (0.667) in games vs Dallas & Washington) (1 GB)
14. ω-Dallas Cowboys 5-9 (4-6 in NFC) (1-1 (0.500) in games vs NYG & Washington) (1 GB)
15. ω-Washington Redskins 5-9 (5-5 in NFC) (1-2 (0.333) in games vs NYG & Dallas)(1 GB)

16. Ω-San Francisco 49ers 2-12

Wildcard Weekend
#6 Carolina @ #3 Packers
#5 Vikings @ #4 Seahawks
Divisional games
#3 Packers or Winner of Vikings-Seahawks @ #2 Falcons
Winner of Vikings-Seahawks or #6 Carolina @ #1 Eagles

*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*
The AFC is 38-19 against the NFC

Draft order
Rank -- Team -- Record -- SoS
1. San Francisco 2-12 .441
2. Miami 3-11 .547
3. Cleveland 3-11 .631
4. Tennessee 4-10 .518

5. Arizona 5-9 .454
6. Chicago 5-9 .474
7. Tampa Bay 5-9 .485
8. Washington 5-9 .490

9. Dallas 5-9 .536
10. Detroit 5-9 .541
11. NY Giants 5-9 .546
12. Oakland 5-9 .582

13. St. Louis 6-8 .443
14. New Orleans 6-8 .459
15. Cincinnati 6-8 .526
16. Houston 6-8 .531

17. Kansas City 6-8 .559
18. Denver 8-6 .482
19. Buffalo 8-6 .500
20. Baltimore 8-6 .544

21-32, playoff teams
Carolina 6-8 .531 *NFC 6th seed
Jacksonville 8-6 .551 *AFC 6th seed

Minnesota 8-6 .474 *NFC 5th seed
NY Jets 10-4 .482 *AFC 5th seed

Seattle 7-7 .428 *NFC 4th seed
Indianapolis 11-3 .477 *AFC 4th seed

Green Bay 8-6 .469 *NFC 3rd seed
San Diego 11-3 .464 *AFC 3rd seed

Atlanta 11-3 .413 *NFC 2nd seed
New England 12-2 *AFC 2nd seed

Philadelphia 13-1 .439 *NFC 1st seed
Pittsburgh 13-1 .469 *AFC 1st seed

(edited by Zeruel on 21.12.04 0024)
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Big Bad
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#2 Posted on 20.12.04 0121.23
Reposted on: 20.12.11 0121.23
So it's official....the NFC will have at least one playoff team no better than 8-8. Quite possibly under .500 once it's all said and done too. Just pathetic.
dMr
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#3 Posted on 20.12.04 0754.47
Reposted on: 20.12.11 0756.23
For what its worth, the schedules for the 8-6 AFC teams:

Jacksonville

Houston
@ Oakland

Baltimore
@ Pittsburgh
Miami

Buffalo
@ San Fran
Pittsburgh

Denver
@ Tennessee
Indy

I guess Jacksonville must fancy their chances, although Oakland away won't be easy. Kerry Collins seems to have remembered how to play lately.

Denver look to be in the position of 'most screwed'. Boy have they imploded lately.
Sec19Row53
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Y!:
#4 Posted on 20.12.04 0908.49
Reposted on: 20.12.11 0909.23
I still think you've got the draft order wrong. From NFL.com:

Draft-order ties are resolved by the cumulative record of each team's opponents. The team with the weaker opponents receives drafting priority.

Therefore, San Freancisco holds the number 1 pick, assuming your SoS is their opponents' winning percentage.
Broncolanche
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#5 Posted on 20.12.04 0919.30
Reposted on: 20.12.11 0923.46
    Originally posted by dMr
    Denver look to be in the position of 'most screwed'. Boy have they imploded lately.
Denver has no right to make the playoffs, much less even be in contention. What an absolute piece-of-shit performance yesterday.

I'm just ready to write this season off and look forward to next year.
dunkndollaz
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#6 Posted on 20.12.04 1016.21
Reposted on: 20.12.11 1017.02
    Originally posted by Broncolanche
      Originally posted by dMr
      Denver look to be in the position of 'most screwed'. Boy have they imploded lately.
    Denver has no right to make the playoffs, much less even be in contention. What an absolute piece-of-shit performance yesterday.

    I'm just ready to write this season off and look forward to next year.


I was spinning the radio dial in my garage yesterday looking for the Jets game and I came upon an Eastern PA station that was getting ready for the opening kickoff from Arrowhead - 97 yards later I was happy to head out into the cold rain to pick up the downed branches in my yard. The Donkeys just make me sick - I am almost sorry I went to New Orleans to see them play. I just know that they will ruin my Christmas night while making Billy Volek a household name.
Broncolanche
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#7 Posted on 20.12.04 1029.30
Reposted on: 20.12.11 1030.22
    Originally posted by dunkndollaz
    The Donkeys just make me sick - I am almost sorry I went to New Orleans to see them play. I just know that they will ruin my Christmas night while making Billy Volek a household name.
A sick part of me wants to see them get humiliated in Tennessee so I can laugh at them some more and hope that Shanahan finally says to himself, "Fuck it, I'm done." This team needs a major shake-up, and as long as Bowlen is the owner, Shanahan isn't going anywhere unless he quits.

And that Champ Bailey is sure one hell of a shutdown cornerback!
dunkndollaz
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#8 Posted on 20.12.04 1052.34
Reposted on: 20.12.11 1053.31
    Originally posted by Broncolanche
    And that Champ Bailey is sure one hell of a shutdown cornerback!


It's guaranteed that I will have Drew Bennett in my fantasy line-up this week.
JoshMann
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Y!:
#9 Posted on 20.12.04 1053.10
Reposted on: 20.12.11 1053.38
    Originally posted by Broncolanche
      Originally posted by dMr
      Denver look to be in the position of 'most screwed'. Boy have they imploded lately.
    Denver has no right to make the playoffs, much less even be in contention. What an absolute piece-of-shit performance yesterday.

    I'm just ready to write this season off and look forward to next year.


Hey, SOMEONE had to pick up the December Collapse mantle now that the Dolphins are in a down-cycle. :)
hansen9j
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#10 Posted on 20.12.04 1120.28
Reposted on: 20.12.11 1120.30
I did some quick calculations last night, and from what I can figure (ignoring Denver because I figure there's no way they will be in wild card contention since Evil Jake Plummer is still running wild), if Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville wins next week, Jax has the wild card, because Jacksonville would have a higher common games, plus Buffalo loses the tiebreaker to Jax, Baltimore, or both.

As far as Denver miraculously staying in contention, I think they have a fair bit of SoV to make up that would make it difficult (although a win over Indy would sure help that).

Can anyone confirm or deny my calculations?
dwaters
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#11 Posted on 20.12.04 1136.44
Reposted on: 20.12.11 1139.35
New England is AFC East Champion, not leader.
BigSteve
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#12 Posted on 20.12.04 1159.43
Reposted on: 20.12.11 1200.10
FYI, you messed up the seeds for the NFC teams. Everyone of the 5-9 teams should be down a number (you have two number eights....)

And I really love the NFC. If the Rams lose to the Eagles at home on Monday night (probable), the Saints lose at home against teh Falcons (good shot, I think), the Panthers lose at the Bucs (not as likely but quite possible since it's at Tampa Bay), and the Redskins win at the Cowboys (possible as well), then the team currently number 15 in the NFC will control their own destiny.

I think that scenario is right because they'd be the team with teh best conference record among the 6-9 teams. That's crazy.
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#13 Posted on 20.12.04 1306.23
Reposted on: 20.12.11 1308.12
Another "what-the-f*ck" moment in the NFC Sunday: thanks to losses by 3 or 4 teams, the Packers made the playoffs even before kicking off vs. the Jaguars on Sunday.

Not that that game helped matters any, mind you. Ye gods.

(image removed)
Source

And thanks to that ARE-YOU-F'N-KIDDING-ME blown PAT by the Lions, the Vikes got a game back, and now it's winner-take-all in the HumptyDome (OF DOOM) on Xmas Eve. Time to ask Santa for a Yancy Thigpen-style Christmas miracle...

And they wonder why we Packer fans drink.
King Of Crap
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#14 Posted on 20.12.04 1307.50
Reposted on: 20.12.11 1309.21
    Originally posted by hansen9j
    I did some quick calculations last night, and from what I can figure (ignoring Denver because I figure there's no way they will be in wild card contention since Evil Jake Plummer is still running wild), if Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville wins next week, Jax has the wild card, because Jacksonville would have a higher common games, plus Buffalo loses the tiebreaker to Jax, Baltimore, or both.

    As far as Denver miraculously staying in contention, I think they have a fair bit of SoV to make up that would make it difficult (although a win over Indy would sure help that).

    Can anyone confirm or deny my calculations?


There are still two games to go, not one. In that scenario, Jags would have the inside track, but not have it clinched. If everything you've illustrated happens, and the Bills don't have a major letdown against SF, both teams would be 9-6. A Jags upset loss at Oakland and a Bills upset win at home against Pittsburgh would put my beloved Bills in the postseason.
MARTYEWR
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#15 Posted on 20.12.04 1312.45
Reposted on: 20.12.11 1313.04
    Originally posted by King Of Crap
      Originally posted by hansen9j
      I did some quick calculations last night, and from what I can figure (ignoring Denver because I figure there's no way they will be in wild card contention since Evil Jake Plummer is still running wild), if Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville wins next week, Jax has the wild card, because Jacksonville would have a higher common games, plus Buffalo loses the tiebreaker to Jax, Baltimore, or both.

      As far as Denver miraculously staying in contention, I think they have a fair bit of SoV to make up that would make it difficult (although a win over Indy would sure help that).

      Can anyone confirm or deny my calculations?


    There are still two games to go, not one. In that scenario, Jags would have the inside track, but not have it clinched. If everything you've illustrated happens, and the Bills don't have a major letdown against SF, both teams would be 9-6. A Jags upset loss at Oakland and a Bills upset win at home against Pittsburgh would put my beloved Bills in the postseason.


What will help Buffalo for the last weekend is if the Steelers beat the Ravens, and the Jets beat the Patriots, both games next week. This way, the Steelers will have home field for the AFC all locked up, and may very well play some Pop Warner team against Buffalo.

I'm also praying the Texans have another miracle road game in them next week.

GO BILLS GO!
Zeruel
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#16 Posted on 20.12.04 1435.32
Reposted on: 20.12.11 1436.48
    Originally posted by Sec19Row53
    I still think you've got the draft order wrong. From NFL.com:

    Draft-order ties are resolved by the cumulative record of each team's opponents. The team with the weaker opponents receives drafting priority.

    Therefore, San Freancisco holds the number 1 pick, assuming your SoS is their opponents' winning percentage.


It was near 2am, so it might have something to do with it, but I was looking for some conformation on that and could not find it. I just followed TheCubsFan's example from last week.

(edited by Zeruel on 20.12.04 1539)

Also, here are the games left for the three 6-8 NFC Teams

Carolina
@ Tampa Bay
New Orleans

St. Louis
Philadelphia
NY Jets

New Orleans
Atlanta
@ Carolina

(edited by Zeruel on 20.12.04 1554)
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#17 Posted on 20.12.04 1455.26
Reposted on: 20.12.11 1456.32
How the Giants are mathematically alive after losing 7 straight defies logic.
The best The NFC Sucks scenario: Rams continue their implosion and lose out. Seattle loses to Arizona and Atlanta. Arizona beats Seattle and Tampa. Thus, at 7-9, the Arizona Cardinals would be the #4 seed in the National Football Conference as Western Division Champions. In which case, the loser of the Packers/Vikings game catches the break of playing them in round 1, rather than a Carolina team that has played well recently or a Saints team that is mentally irregular enough to be very dangerous if they ever entered into the playoffs.
The Broncos catch a break in the schedule, as the Colts game has no meaning, barring Steeler or Patriots collapse, for the Colts. The San Diego/Colts winner this week gets the 3 seed, as they would be 1 up with 1 to go with the head-to-head tie breaker.
Now, the very dangerous scenario: KC wins out to go 8-8. All the 8-6 teams collapse and go 8-8. Do the Chiefs and their explosive offense come back from the dead and make the playoffs?
And, 1 caveat to the tie-breaking formula that they have been using on WFAN in New York to explain how the Jets get knocked out in a 3 way tie with Buffalo: All ties are broken in the division first before the teams enter the wild card pool. Also, conference record is not the 3rd tie breaker in the division. Common opponents is the 3rd tie breaker within a division.

(edited by redsoxnation on 20.12.04 1556)
wesman1111
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#18 Posted on 20.12.04 1618.16
Reposted on: 20.12.11 1618.40
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    Now, the very dangerous scenario: KC wins out to go 8-8. All the 8-6 teams collapse and go 8-8. Do the Chiefs and their explosive offense come back from the dead and make the playoffs


The only problem with that scenario is, that for all the 8-6 teams to lose out, Houston has to beat Jacksonville. With a home game against Cleveland in week 17, they would also likely go 8-8, and with the way the tiebreakers work, they would get in because of a win in week 3 in KC (I looked this over earlier as a Chiefs fan still dreaming.) Houston and KC both would end up with a 7-5 conference record, Buffalo and Baltimore at 5-7 (Houston would have the division tiebreaker over Jacksonville to eliminate the Jags.) Then it reverts to the two-team race and Houston's win gets them in.

Go Browns, 49ers, Steelers, Dolphins, Titans, Colts, and Raiders!!!
JustinShapiro
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#19 Posted on 20.12.04 2353.34
Reposted on: 20.12.11 2354.52
Brady~~~~~~~~~~

I am so lucky to have been watching that. I was like OMG! OMG? OMG!! and finally OMG!!!

I kind of wouldn't have minded if we'd had to go play in New England with our Backs against the Walls, because by this point I'm positively spooked feeling the pressure of home AFC Championship Games. But the demons must be exorcized.
Big Bad
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#20 Posted on 21.12.04 0339.19
Reposted on: 21.12.11 0340.43
Despite the fact that my Packers are killing me, Smalls, I'm not exactly sweating the possibility of playing Seattle/Arizona (it won't be St. Louis since there is no way on God's earth they're beating both Philly and the Jets) in the first round.
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