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CRZ
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#1 Posted on 3.11.04 0209.29
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0222.16
If we can at all, let's try to keep it to one thread.

While I'm sure there are plenty of lawyers yet to speak, this looks like a sure Bush win to this reporter, both in the meaningless popular vote and in the electoral vote - even a highly unlikely 269-269 tie would go Bush in the still-Republican House.

Sooner or later, I'll post my own thoughts about this election over in CRZ's World, but for now, can we PLEASE keep it civil?

Ok.......GO!
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Guru Zim
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#2 Posted on 3.11.04 0218.10
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0222.17
One interesting story that might get lost with the Presidential campaign is that it appears that the write-in option is leading the San Diego mayor's race. Currently with half of the votes counted, its 35 write-in, 33 Murphy, and 31 Roberts.

The assumption is that the 35 is all for one person... I don't buy it. I think that Murphy may still win, but we shall see.

Local thought is that the fact that we had a paper ballot that had to be filled out with a pen influenced the high write-in percentage.
NickBockwinkelFan
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#3 Posted on 3.11.04 0230.31
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0239.07
    Originally posted by Guru Zim
    One interesting story that might get lost with the Presidential campaign is that it appears that the write-in option is leading the San Diego mayor's race. Currently with half of the votes counted, its 35 write-in, 33 Murphy, and 31 Roberts.

    The assumption is that the 35 is all for one person... I don't buy it. I think that Murphy may still win, but we shall see.

    Local thought is that the fact that we had a paper ballot that had to be filled out with a pen influenced the high write-in percentage.


I bet Dan Fouts has a strong write-in showing.
RYDER FAKIN
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#4 Posted on 3.11.04 0245.26
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0246.30
I think history will show that this was the right thing for this country...it's not going to be easy for the next 2-4 years, as difficult choices / changes are needed to allow America to grow into the 21st Century instead of clinging to the tit of "entitlements", "class warfare" and the general status quo of world politics that directly led to to 9/11.

The Democratic Party is sunk, which I think is the worst thing in all of this (we are barely a two party system as is)- but, they put all their eggs into one basket, running "against" Bush instead of "for" themselves. Early results show that GOP picked up a seat in Congress, and the only bright spot at this point is Obama...I refuse to call Hillary Clinton's de facto figurhead leadership of The Democrats "a bright spot".

I love the fact that this election generated the voter turnout...but it shows me what I have thought all along - The Dems should have won this one hands down, but ran an incredibly horribly managed campaign, behind someone who I never thought in my almost 30 years of despising him would be this close to being The Top Dog. Quite frankly, it;s no one's fault but their own they booked a loser.

The only fear I have is this one turns out like 1972 - McGovern ignighted the youth vote, only to get stopmed by an Incumbent Republican, during a war and stagnant ecomony, only to see said Republican resign two years later in a cloud of shame / blatant criminal behavior. And America had no one to blame but themselves...the old saying is "in a representative democracy, the people get the type of government they deserve".

That would have been true either way tonight - I'm just glad Bush is going to be allowed to finish what he started instead of America looking square in the face of possibly 16 straight years of Democrat Party Rule. "rich get richer, poor get poorer, CC the United Nations on anything we need to acomplish" is outdated thinking, and I hope that with this election, America can move beyond that...

FLEA
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#5 Posted on 3.11.04 0255.51
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0256.38
Does anyone have statistics on how much bigger voter turnout was this year than the last election? Just wondering, thanks.
Downtown Bookie
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#6 Posted on 3.11.04 0343.33
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0349.39
    Originally posted by The Vile1
    Does anyone have statistics on how much bigger voter turnout was this year than the last election?
Well, to give an approximate answer to your question, in 2000 (fec.gov) there were a total of 105,405,100 popular votes cast in the U.S. Presidential election. You can compare that to the numbers currently (appx 3:30 A.M. CST 11/3/04) shown by MSNBC (msnbc.msn.com): with 95% of precincts reporting, the combined vote total for Bush, Kerry, and Nader comes to 110,145,364. From that starting base you can extrapolate an approximate enough final figure to answer your question as to how this year's turnout compares to 2000. Hope this helps.
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#7 Posted on 3.11.04 0354.19
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0357.37
Well, to me, though I think it is pretty well over at this point, I can see why Kerry hasn't conceded yet. He hasn't launched any lawsuits, he seems to just be waiting. Which isn't really a bad way to handle himself, all things considered. And I am pretty impressed that the irregularities that DID pop up (some were bound to), were treated by pretty much everyone with the gravity that they deserved. Serious issues, but not Earth shattering...

I am impressed that both of them seem to be handling themselves very well, but the media pretty well disgusts me. ALL of the networks have behaved horrifically. Between Dan Rather and CNN's refusal to call Ohio for Bush, to FOX News refusing to call California for Kerry (until Bush was up by over 55 votes, anyway) - and the fact that as of now none of them have the guts to come out and make a call on the remaining states, any one of which would give Bush the "W."

Now if it was out of fairness, I would be behind them. But it looks like FOX doesn't want to do it (in my opinion) because they are trying to avoid looking too right leaning, and they all don't want to be the first to make the call, in case something strange happens and Ohio is reversed.

I am sure I will hear much more when I wake up, but on both sides, I am impressed with the behavior of all involved, candidates and voters. The media through and through, however, needs to re-examine itself and make some very serious changes in the next several weeks.

It's been a rough year, and an extremely nerve-racking evening. I am glad that it is behind us. Hopefully we can all shake hands and move forward now.

(edited by Pool-Boy on 3.11.04 0158)
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#8 Posted on 3.11.04 0356.48
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0359.01
It seems as though this year's election was a little more decisive than in 2000. I think the President still has a long way to go to gain the full trust of the electorate, but obviously, he got alot of votes that he didn't get last time. I think he needs to continue to build rapport with the "other side'

OTOH, I think the 'other side' needs to start the healing on their side by conceding as soon as they can. It seems clear at this time (4:30 AM in the east) that the President has Ohio and at least Nevada OR New Mexico OR Iowa. I want every vote counted, but as soon as it becomes clear, they need to do that. And the partisians on the left side need to stop any rhetoric that is left over from the 2000 election and go forward.

I've spend some time tonight looking at the county by county wins on the CNN site. It's amazing how concentrated kerry support is. In California, where the Senator won by nearly a million votes, he only won like 15 counties. 600,000 of that difference can be found in LA county alone. The maps are actually misleading, showing this large spread of red across the center of the country, while in reality, the spread is seemingly even wider, with the blue concentrated around the urban centers.

We need to come closer together and both sides are going to have to take a stand to do that.
Crimedog
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#9 Posted on 3.11.04 0505.46
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0507.06
    Originally posted by Pool-Boy
    ALL of the networks have behaved horrifically. Between Dan Rather and CNN's refusal to call Ohio for Bush, to FOX News refusing to call California for Kerry (until Bush was up by over 55 votes, anyway) - and the fact that as of now none of them have the guts to come out and make a call on the remaining states, any one of which would give Bush the "W."


As someone who is very, very close to the process, I can tell you absolutely right now that Ohio is too close to call. Bush is probably going to win the state, but it can't be guaranteed. The news orgs that haven't called Ohio yet are in the right on this one.
The Goon
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#10 Posted on 3.11.04 0609.48
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0610.09
I expected to wake up to a definitive winner, but no luck. However, it does look like the number of absentee ballots in Ohio aren't enough to make a difference to the Kerry campaign.

My question is about electoral reform, more to make the process of voting easier for the average person than anything else. I don't want to say "we do it better", but voting in Canada takes no more time than filling up your car. It's amazing to hear stories of three-hour lineups or longer. Are there not enough ballot stations open in each county?

On a side note, there will be a lot of talk of the networks' varied coverage. The Daily Show's live special was nothing short of hilarious, particularly Samantha Bee's exit-polling of people coming out of public toilets and XXX stores. "Sir, what is your full name and what did you buy in the porn store today?"
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#11 Posted on 3.11.04 0655.12
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0655.45
God, the networks can't even get the electoral totals straight. This whole thing's a mess.

I'm trying to keep up hope, but the scenario in which Kerry wins is pretty doubtful. (If these provisional ballots can get him within a percentage point, which is somewhat more likely than actually overtaking Bush, then we get to hear everyone's favorite word again, as Ohio will have to have a statewide manual recount.)

This isn't close to over yet.
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#12 Posted on 3.11.04 0700.25
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0706.45
Well, it looks like W gets the W - with a (simple) majority of both the popular and electoral college votes this time, and fairly widespread support outside the major metropolitan areas. While I'm disappointed that Kerry didn't win, I'd hope that Bush recognizes that a large section of this country doesn't agree with all of his agenda and is a little more receptive to opposing viewpoints in his second term. I truly fear for the rights of women if Bush proceeds in his current "turn back the clock" mode - and I fear for the freedom of all Americans if he continues to constrain civil liberties in the name of "security".

On the bright side, maybe the Democrats will field a female candidate for President in 2008...

Steph
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#13 Posted on 3.11.04 0702.08
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0709.42
    Originally posted by The Goon
    I expected to wake up to a definitive winner, but no luck. However, it does look like the number of absentee ballots in Ohio aren't enough to make a difference to the Kerry campaign.
Just to clarify, it's not so much absentee ballots as it is the provisional ballots. They will take up to 11 days to verify the voter's legitimacy and then count them up. Get ready for those results to draaaaaaaaaaaaag this out.

    Originally posted by The Goon
    The Daily Show's live special was nothing short of hilarious, particularly Samantha Bee's exit-polling of people coming out of public toilets and XXX stores. "Sir, what is your full name and what did you buy in the porn store today?"
Agreed - their "reporting" was hilarious!
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#14 Posted on 3.11.04 0707.18
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0710.29
I found a couple of things very interesting:

1. Bush is the first candidate to get 50% of the popular vote in four elections. I think the predictions of high voter turnout helping Kerry caused some Republicans who might not have otherwise voted (I know personally of at least two) to vote because of their distaste for the "anybody but Bush"-sentiment.

2. What happened to the landslide? I thought this was a done deal for months.

I also thought CNN was too eager to remind us that they messed up Florida so they didn't want to call any tight races. Geez, we remember that, guys, and you're supposed to TELL US the news, not BE the news.

Like OFB alluded to, at one point last night CNN had it 193-188 Bush, while Fox had it 210-144, and this morning when I left my house CNN had it 254-252 Bush while Fox had Bush with 269 electoral votes. Crazy.

EDIT: And possibly for the first time in 20 years, Washington MIGHT have a Republican governor, with Dino Rossi (R) only trailing Christine Gregoire (D) by less than 2000 votes right now and the absentee ballots still to be counted.

(edited by JayJayDean on 3.11.04 0517)
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#15 Posted on 3.11.04 0715.41
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0716.17
The disparity in Electoral College totals between the networks, even right now, is impressive.

I went to bed at 330 EST and when I got up at 730 was surprised that nothing had changed. I think one of the networks finally called Nevada for Bush. But let's face it, this one is all over but the shouting. There are not enough provisional ballots in Ohio to make a difference. The rumor is that Bush will make his victory speech sometime today, after giving enough time for Kerry to concede. Of course, if he does not conede, he's giving the speech anyway.

Interestingly, the convention wisdom was destroyed in a lot of ways:

- High turnout is bad for Bush: simply not the case.

- High youth turnout will tilt for Kerry: The youth turnout was the same as it was in 2000.

- Nader will tilt the election to Bush: didn't happen.

- The war in Iraq is unopopular, so Bush can't win: didn't happen.

JayJay pointed out that Bush is the first candidate since his dad in '88 to break 50%. So now we can stop whining about stolen elections and the popular vote, ok?
EDIT: One other thing. Exit polling and pre-election polling was wildly off in certain circumstances. From what I have heard, the Bush campaign was very down because exit polling told them that they were losing Florida early in the night.

Pre-election polls are intersting if you look back at the last ones. The ones that ended 11/1 all had Bush ahead between 2 and 4, except for Marist which had Kerry up 1. The embarsssing part for a pollster like Zogby, for example, is that he had Kerry all the way and it never materialized...

(edited by Grimis on 3.11.04 0841)
rockdotcom_2.0
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#16 Posted on 3.11.04 0757.04
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0758.04
Im dumbfounded right now. First I would like to congratulate the Republicans. No matter how Ohio turns (and I think Bush got it), I have to say that you guys have really got your shit together. Brilliant campaign. They have changed the way, for better or worse, how to win an election. Exit polling, high turnout, youth vote- NONE of that matters now. Amazing.

Second, I think some change will happen now in our party. Maybe some new blood is what we need. Daschle is gone, and Obama is in. Is Hilary now our 2008 front-runner? I hope not, but what else have we got? Vilsack?

And as far as Bush goes, I was never one of those "move to Canada" types if he were to be re-elected. But we got problems, Iraq being the most glaring one, and I hope and pray he can fix it. But I think the press, are going to come after Bush in his second term with a vengeance. They were neutered the last four years, and I predict they are going to go after him hard on every single mistake and mis-step. Will they try to pull a Nixon and take him down? I dont think so, but I think they are going to try.


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#17 Posted on 3.11.04 0758.33
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0759.04
I am wary of the outcome in that I feel that our government works best when there are strong checks and balances among and between the branches. I am uncomfortable with either party being in a position to attempt to railroad their platform through Congress and the White House (I know the GOP *technically* doesn't have all the seats needed to do that). Political parity demands compromise.

The next 4 years shoud be very interesting to say the least. The Democratic party will hopefully find a way to re-invent themselves as something other than "Republican light" or Anti-GOP. Only time will tell. There is some freash blood with some progrssive ideas. Hopefully, it'll catch on.
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#18 Posted on 3.11.04 0800.46
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0800.57
    Originally posted by OlFuzzyBastard
    God, the networks can't even get the electoral totals straight. This whole thing's a mess.

    I'm trying to keep up hope, but the scenario in which Kerry wins is pretty doubtful. (If these provisional ballots can get him within a percentage point, which is somewhat more likely than actually overtaking Bush, then we get to hear everyone's favorite word again, as Ohio will have to have a statewide manual recount.)

    This isn't close to over yet.


Correct me if I'm wrong, but the number I hear is that the vote has to be within 0.25% in Ohio to launch an automatic recount. I just can't see that happening, there is not enough votes out there (the provisional ballots are provisional for a reason, not all of them will count) And launching court action will just reek of desperation unless the gap closes significantly.

I voted for Kerry, and think electing Bush is a mistake. But the nation has spoken, and it just a matter of when Kerry is willing to admit defeat.
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#19 Posted on 3.11.04 0803.27
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0804.03
    Originally posted by rockdotcom_2.0
    Second, I think some change will happen now in our party. Maybe some new blood is what we need. Daschle is gone, and Obama is in. Is Hilary now our 2008 front-runner? I hope not, but what else have we got? Vilsack?


I'd like to see Dean take another crack at it myself. No one else energized and mobilized the base like Gov. Dean did, and Kerry would have done half as well if he hadn't kicked the entire Democratic party into gear. I know he yelled one time in Iowa and is therefore unelectable, but that even looks silly and childish now, let alone in 2008.

It'll probably be a bit too early for Obama to run next time, but boy would I love to see a Dean/Obama ticket.
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#20 Posted on 3.11.04 0812.16
Reposted on: 3.11.11 0814.07
OFB, I too, thought Dean was a better choice--more handsome, more charismatic, definitely more fiery (which I don't see as a bad thing). Having passion should not be seen as being crazy, per sea.

Who knows what a Dean/Edwards ticket would have done?

I still don't think our nation is ready to truly embrace the idea of an African American on the presidential ticket.
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