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The 7 - Current Events & Politics - Tracking Polls- Bush expands lead Register and log in to post!
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Grimis
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#1 Posted on 15.10.04 1140.03
Reposted on: 15.10.11 1140.37
In more than one poll, incidentally:

Rasmussen: Bush 49, Kerry 46

Here is a point from Rasmussen that is a major problem for the Kerry team:
    Originally posted by Rasmussen
    The number of voters who prefer Bush over Kerry on both national defense and the economy has returned to the levels that existed before the first debate.


Reuters: Bush 48, Kerry 44
Here is a point from the Reuters/Zogby story that is an even bigger problem for Kerry.
    Originally posted by Zogby/Retuers
    The good news for the president is that he has improved his performance among the small group of undecideds," said pollster John Zogby, who found 6 percent of likely voters are undecided. "Nearly a quarter now say that he deserves to be re-elected, up from 18 percent in our last poll."

    Zogby said the difference between Kerry's 79 percent support among Democrats and Bush's 89 percent support from Republicans also should be "worrisome" for Kerry in such a tight race.

    "Kerry needs to close the deal with his fellow Democrats," Zogby said.


The internals must really be showing some unusual results: Edwards is venturing in to Maryland, of all places, today. Bush is going to cross into New Jersey soon too....
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OlFuzzyBastard
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#2 Posted on 15.10.04 1150.16
Reposted on: 15.10.11 1150.23
Good to know that polls matter again.
whatever
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#3 Posted on 15.10.04 1216.31
Reposted on: 15.10.11 1216.33
    Originally posted by OlFuzzyBastard
    Good to know that polls matter again.

Apparantly they are only able to count if the results are in your favor.
redsoxnation
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#4 Posted on 15.10.04 1318.45
Reposted on: 15.10.11 1320.51
The only thing of real importance is that due to the ineptitude displayed by the Governor on his way out the door in New Jersey, he has allowed his state to come into play. Kerry having to put money into New Jersey (and thus, the New York TV market) means less money/time for him to spend in places he anticipated.
Grimis
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#5 Posted on 15.10.04 1328.48
Reposted on: 15.10.11 1329.02
    Originally posted by whatever
      Originally posted by OlFuzzyBastard
      Good to know that polls matter again.

    Apparantly they are only able to count if the results are in your favor.
I didn't know I discounted polling...
whatever
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#6 Posted on 15.10.04 1535.05
Reposted on: 15.10.11 1537.15
    Originally posted by Grimis
      Originally posted by whatever
        Originally posted by OlFuzzyBastard
        Good to know that polls matter again.

      Apparantly they are only able to count if the results are in your favor.
    I didn't know I discounted polling...

To be honest, this one's not really about *you*, Grimis, but some other right-wingers who were ready and willing to discount any time a poll was put up showing a Kerry lead. If you have a problem with a specific poll, you've more than covered your explanations about the data pools, etc.
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#7 Posted on 15.10.04 1612.21
Reposted on: 15.10.11 1612.42
Yeah, I would still like to see Zogby's electoral poll which had Kerry leading Bush by 30 points. Can anyone link that one for me?
evilwaldo
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#8 Posted on 15.10.04 1829.12
Reposted on: 15.10.11 1829.19
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html

Ask and thou shalt receive.
Eddie Famous
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#9 Posted on 15.10.04 1834.43
Reposted on: 15.10.11 1834.53


THAT's an electoral poll? Not even half the states are involved and some of those that were were within one percentage point.

www.electoral-vote.com

Has some interesting numbers which suggest Ohio and/or Penn could be the deciding states...
evilwaldo
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#10 Posted on 15.10.04 1903.01
Reposted on: 15.10.11 1905.47


I am not a big fan of that site since they just post polling data without looking behind the data. They just post new polls without saying who ran the poll or the last time they used the poll in their calculation. There are polling groups that favor both parties and that causes wild swings in the electoral vote totals.

Zogby focuses in on the battleground states, not the ones where the results are already predetermined. If you want to do the totals you can plug the data into an Excel spreadsheet and compute it for yourself. If you click on the methodology tab he goes into detail about the cross-sectioning and respondants per state. I like the polls because his sample sizes are fairly large in proportion to each states population. Much better than the news polls whose national sample sizes are usually smaller than Zogby's state size.

Eh, any poll is only as good as the people responding and selecting the sample size.
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Liverwurst
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#11 Posted on 15.10.04 1917.07
Reposted on: 15.10.11 1917.10
Thanks for the info. I too haven't been a big fan of electoral vote either, but they did a good job with explaining the new polls. I will disagree with Ohion in electal vote since I don't think you can put Bush winnning there since the last poll Zogy has Kerry by 1%, so that thing is a dead tie. Its interesting to see how both websites have different states going in different ways. If anything this is going to be a lot closer than I think anyone expected. I think Kerry put a few more states in play that probably no one thought about like Arkanassa, Missouri, Tenesse and Iowa. Every electoral vote will count this year.
Crimedog
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#12 Posted on 16.10.04 0008.38
Reposted on: 16.10.11 0008.43
    Originally posted by OlFuzzyBastard
    Good to know that polls matter again.


Well, if that's a shot at me for my continued "polls that show a lead of less than a margin of error are irrelevant" stance, then so be it. Both of these polls have leads that are greater than the margin of error, so there's some substance there. But they're still too close to be really meaningful right now.
Grimis
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#13 Posted on 18.10.04 1522.18
Reposted on: 18.10.11 1526.57
The new RealClearPolitics aggregate has Bush up 3.8, all of likely voters, with the highest being USA Today/CNN/Gallup at +8 for Bush.
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