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25.10.07 1941
The 7 - Current Events & Politics - Kerry opens 3-point lead in poll
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whatever
Lap cheong
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#1 Posted on 11.10.04 1033.54
Reposted on: 11.10.11 1033.57
Click Here (story.news.yahoo.com)

Keeps the heat on both candidates going into the third debate. I'm impressed the polling has swung back toward a more even divide, but as stated earlier by others, the media wants a close race.

Go Kerry!
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ScreamingHeadGuy
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#2 Posted on 11.10.04 1143.24
Reposted on: 11.10.11 1145.47
Polls mean nothing. 'Cuz Poll XYZ says Bush is ahead by 4, and YZX says the race is even, and the WWE poll has a flag on it (or nightstick, or paddle, or whatever).

No poll can accurately reflect a race this tight. So it looks like we'll actually have to vote to see how this turns out.
PalpatineW
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#3 Posted on 11.10.04 1434.56
Reposted on: 11.10.11 1437.30
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

That says Bush by 5.

I'm not putting much stock in either of them.

Also, Gallup has Kerry up one point. So much for MoveOn's strange ravings.
OlFuzzyBastard
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#4 Posted on 11.10.04 1549.37
Reposted on: 11.10.11 1550.21


Gallup, by their own admission, has consistantly been polling 12% more people who voted for Bush in 2000 than people who voted for Gore in 2000. Considering the race was a statistical tie, with Gore slightly ahead in the popular vote, in what parallel universe does that constitute a representative sample?

If Kerry's winning a poll conducted under those means, he must be *crushing him*.

(edited by OlFuzzyBastard on 11.10.04 1650)
PalpatineW
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#5 Posted on 11.10.04 2119.43
Reposted on: 11.10.11 2120.21
    Originally posted by OlFuzzyBastard


    Gallup, by their own admission, has consistantly been polling 12% more people who voted for Bush in 2000 than people who voted for Gore in 2000. Considering the race was a statistical tie, with Gore slightly ahead in the popular vote, in what parallel universe does that constitute a representative sample?

    If Kerry's winning a poll conducted under those means, he must be *crushing him*.

    (edited by OlFuzzyBastard on 11.10.04 1650)


http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6465847

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Polls/TimePoll10.8.04TrendedData.pdf

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

If you dont want to click on it, that's Kerry +1, Bush +6, Kerry +3, Bush +1, Bush +4 (head-to-head).
A Fan
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#6 Posted on 11.10.04 2234.12
Reposted on: 11.10.11 2235.54
Thats great, does anyone else remember in 2000, you know the whole popularity thing makes crap. I guess not. Last time, I checked the electoral college meter that was posted here a few times, Kerry was ahead 280 to Bush's 230ish. CNN had Bush at 310 to Kerry's 200, they freely admitted that all of their math was probably wrong, so why make that statement, I don't know. I don't which one to trust, but to say this race is over on either side is silly. I want Kerry to win, but I'll believe it on the Wednesday after the Tuesday Elections.
Crimedog
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#7 Posted on 11.10.04 2319.50
Reposted on: 11.10.11 2327.46
Something to remember: Any poll that shows the leader up by less than the margin of error is statistically insignificant. One candidate has to have a lead that is more than the margin of error for any poll to mean that the lead is significant. The original poll mentioned has Kerry up by 3 points with a 2.9 margin of error. That's not statistically significant.
whatever
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#8 Posted on 12.10.04 0700.03
Reposted on: 12.10.11 0702.19
Overall, I am in agreement that polls pretty much mean squadoo. However, I was mostly posting this due to the fact that ANY LITTLE THING that has a pro-Republican stance seems to make its way up here. Just shooting for a little "good news" vibe for the other side if nothing else.

Crimedog - but that means in the original poll Kerry could be up by at least .1%! WHOO-HOO. ;)
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#9 Posted on 12.10.04 0823.20
Reposted on: 12.10.11 0823.20
I agree with you, Whatever, this forum does seem to be a cheerleading squad for the Republicans. However, I was always taught polls mean crap, they never tell you everything you need to know and some of them are slanted in a particular way ie a Fox News Polls. I just feel they do more harm than good. The news organization use it to tell people not to vote if they are is a good lead. So, I don't mean to break the hope, but I have been shoving their Bush's 11 point lead that was so strong they said the race was over down their throats since the RNC Convention. I just try to be fair which is a rarity on this board.

When I was learning how to conduct poll for my class, the teacher basically said, he wanted us to hit all age, genders, ethenic groups and certain faiths. Then, he stated since that will never happen, just do whatever else does call the middle class people on Thursday, they'll be home watching Friends or Survivor. Its a terrible process to go through and honestly, the scientific fact in polls is really stretching it too.

Grimis
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#10 Posted on 12.10.04 0856.35
Reposted on: 12.10.11 0856.48
    Originally posted by A Fan
    I agree with you, Whatever, this forum does seem to be a cheerleading squad for the Republicans.
With all the knee-jerk liberals around here, that's kind of a bizarre statement.
OlFuzzyBastard
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#11 Posted on 12.10.04 0903.06
Reposted on: 12.10.11 0903.32
    Originally posted by Grimis
      Originally posted by A Fan
      I agree with you, Whatever, this forum does seem to be a cheerleading squad for the Republicans.
    With all the knee-jerk liberals around here, that's kind of a bizarre statement.


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