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26.11.07 0155
The 7 - Current Events & Politics - 269-269 Electoral College Tie Scenario?
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spf
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#1 Posted on 22.9.04 1121.30
Reposted on: 22.9.11 1121.47
From Zogby poll results (zogby.com) where it shows the race as right now 264-241 in the Electoral College for Kerry (the rest of states too close to call). But the article goes on to point out this idea. My question is what happens politically should this somehow occur? Would Reps. be pushed to vote for the way their state voted regardless of their party affiliation? Would you see a large outcry calling for them to vote for whomever wins the overall popular vote? Obviously barring a miracle it would appear that if it ties at 269 Bush wins since the House likely stays GOP. But if Kerry wins the popular vote how much controversy would that cause?

    Originally posted by Zogby
    The closeness of the race, as shown in this report, gives rise to that most intriguing of parlor game questions could the Bush-Kerry contest end in a tie?

    Using the current Zogby Interactive poll data, it is now easy to construct a plausible scenario in which this very thing could happen. In this newest series of polls, Mr. Kerry continues to nurse an eroding lead that now stands at 264 Electoral College votes to 241 votes for Mr. Bush.

    Two states Arkansas (6 votes) and Florida (27 votes) remain too close to call. Should Mr. Kerry capture Arkansas, home to former President Clinton, who is taking an increasing role in the Kerry campaign, and should Mr. Bush win Florida, which is being flooded with federal aide in the wake of four hurricane strikes and which is governed by the Presidents brother, the race would favor Mr. Kerry, 270-268.

    However, if two other states, Missouri, which now narrowly favors Mr. Bush, and Minnesota, which currently favors Mr. Kerry, were to flip, we would have a 269-269 tie, and the election would be thrown to the U.S. House of Representatives.

    There are lots of other alternate scenarios that are equally plausible. For instance, if Mr. Bush were to capture both Arkansas and Florida, which is likely, but lost either West Virginia or Nevada, the outcome would be the same.

    And you thought the 2000 election was fun.


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Grimis
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#2 Posted on 22.9.04 1136.53
Reposted on: 22.9.11 1136.54
    Originally posted by spf2119
    But if Kerry wins the popular vote how much controversy would that cause?
That's quite an outrageous assumption at this point is it not?

The result will be similar to 1824. The House decides it. That is that. I think the only thing that you will see is an outlash against the Republican candidate in 2008. It will not kill off the Electoral College.
spf
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#3 Posted on 22.9.04 1139.55
Reposted on: 22.9.11 1140.02
    Originally posted by Grimis
      Originally posted by spf2119
      But if Kerry wins the popular vote how much controversy would that cause?
    That's quite an outrageous assumption at this point is it not?

    The result will be similar to 1824. The House decides it. That is that. I think the only thing that you will see is an outlash against the Republican candidate in 2008. It will not kill off the Electoral College.

With 1824 though you had 4 viable candidates, and no one could lay claim to a majority of the popular sentiment.

IIRC, doesn't each state get one vote should something like this go into the House of Reps, rather than each Representative voting individually? If so, does anyone have a breakdown of how each state's delegation breaks down?
OlFuzzyBastard
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#4 Posted on 22.9.04 1141.52
Reposted on: 22.9.11 1143.10
    Originally posted by Grimis
      Originally posted by spf2119
      But if Kerry wins the popular vote how much controversy would that cause?
    That's quite an outrageous assumption at this point is it not?

    The result will be similar to 1824. The House decides it. That is that. I think the only thing that you will see is an outlash against the Republican candidate in 2008. It will not kill off the Electoral College.


Correct me if I'm wrong, but when I heard this possibility floated around, I heard that while the House elects the President, the Senate elects the Vice-President. So, if the Democrats take the Senate back - which while unlikely but within the realm of possibility - and the rest of this scenario occurs, we could be looking at a Bush/Edwards term.
Grimis
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#5 Posted on 22.9.04 1237.04
Reposted on: 22.9.11 1246.41
    Originally posted by spf2119
    IIRC, doesn't each state get one vote should something like this go into the House of Reps, rather than each Representative voting individually? If so, does anyone have a breakdown of how each state's delegation breaks down?
    Originally posted by OlFuzzyBastard
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but when I heard this possibility floated around, I heard that while the House elects the President, the Senate elects the Vice-President. So, if the Democrats take the Senate back - which while unlikely but within the realm of possibility - and the rest of this scenario occurs, we could be looking at a Bush/Edwards term.
Both of you are technically correct.

    Originally posted by the 12th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States
    The electors shall meet in their respective states and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and of all persons voted for as Vice-President, and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate;--The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted;--the person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in the case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President. The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice. But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.


This blog makes an intresting note:

    Well, the Constitution says that the tie would be broken by a poll of the House of Representatives where each state gets one vote and the vote is decided by a consensus of the state's Representatives. Take North Dakota, for example, with its one Representative in the House. That Representative, Earl Pomeroy, a Democrat, would be able to vote however he wanted. He would almost certainly cast his ballot for John Kerry.

    But consider Mississippi. The great state of Mississippi has four Representatives, two Republicans and two Democrats. It's not hard to imagine a scenario in which the Mississippi delegation would be unable to reach a consensus and would therefore be unable to cast a ballot.....

    ....If every Representative in the House voted along party lines, Bush would get 30 ballots and Kerry would take home only 15. Four states would have tied delegations, and one, Vermont, has a Representative who is not a member of either party, so for sake of fairness I put that one in the "abstain" column.
As far as VP would go, all bets would be off. Probably McCain as a consensus pick.
estragand
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#6 Posted on 22.9.04 1615.20
Reposted on: 22.9.11 1619.40
In the event of a tie, I always thought that they looked at the strength of schedule and the opponents each candidate beat to get the nomination. If still tied, then they go to total net miles traveled and total photo ops. If STILL tied, then it's a coinflip. I could be wrong.
CRZ
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#7 Posted on 22.9.04 1712.19
Reposted on: 22.9.11 1712.56
First off, this'll never happen. Now that that's out of the way...

If you REALLY want to wildly speculate, given that the 12th says the top THREE (electoral) vote getters are eligible for Prez, can you only imagine the black ops that might be used to get just ONE vote cast (and a third place received) for.......?
redsoxnation
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#8 Posted on 22.9.04 2249.21
Reposted on: 22.9.11 2252.10
I say if it ends up 269-269 use the New Mexico tied vote philosophy and play a hand of poker for the White House.
If this scenario could mathematically play out, watch how closely the popular vote is in the Congressional Districts in Maine. Maine has the electoral votes by district system, and Bush lost the state and all districts in '00. However, he was narrowly defeated in one of the districts that year. If you want to play conspiratorial games, that could be a place to watch.
Also, remember Gore was screwed out of an electoral vote in '00. A D.C. elector refused to give Gore the vote in protest (maybe it was because of the result or maybe it was about statehood). If it was about statehood, same person pulls that stunt again, its Bush 269-268 when its thrown into the House, thus providing electoral college cover for the Congressional delegations.
Still, much greater chance of the election breaking and the winner having over 350 electoral votes than a tie occurring.

(edited by redsoxnation on 22.9.04 2350)
The Thrill
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#9 Posted on 23.9.04 0821.33
Reposted on: 23.9.11 0821.43
Another potential monkey wrench to throw into this mix...

I believe it's not federal law that a state's electors absolutely HAVE to cast their votes in the electoral college for the candidate that "won" said state's votes.

Some states have laws requiring just that, but not all, I believe. One wonders what kind of deals both sides of the aisle might try to cut for those "wild-card" electoral votes.

Of course, a nice and clean, big Bush victory will render all of this moot. :-)
Zeruel
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#10 Posted on 23.9.04 1435.11
Reposted on: 23.9.11 1435.11
Maryland has stiff penalities for those who do not vote for the electoral winner. (Or they say. We've split votes about half a dozen times over the years)

(edited by Zeruel on 23.9.04 1541)
BWT
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#11 Posted on 23.9.04 1534.30
Reposted on: 23.9.11 1539.20
We basically had this discussion in my political science class today our teacher told us of an elector in Arizona who during the 2000 election was going around saying he might not vote for Bush and instead vote for Gore. Heres a link http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/12/18/auther.debrief/

Then he told us of the mentioned D.C. elector who abstained from voting due to the lack of representation in congress. He also told us how Colorado is going to vote on whether or not to split the electoral college vote so that it represents the popular vote better. Some very interesting stuff but really 99.9 % of the electors do the right and fair thing and vote based on the popular vote. Then again there is nothing that forces them to do so.

(edited by BWT on 23.9.04 1335)
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