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CRZ
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#1 Posted on 14.9.04 1526.43
Reposted on: 14.9.11 1529.01
SurveyUSA were the ONLY ones to get it right with the California recall at the time it was happening, so they've always gotten high credibility from me. They updated their statewide polls yesterday; if you don't want to Click Here (surveyusa.com), here's some cutting and pasting of the newly updated polls:

President, MO
9/10/2004
Bush (R)
48%
Kerry (D)
46%
Other/Undecided
5%
Data Collected
9/7/04 - 9/9/04
Geography
State of Missouri
Sample Population
660 Likely Voters
Margin of Error
3.9%
Client
KSDK-TV St. Louis
KOMU-TV Columbia
President, PA
9/10/2004
Kerry (D)
49%
Bush (R)
47%
Other/Undecided
5%
Data Collected
9/7/04 - 9/9/04
Geography
State of Pennsylvania
Sample Population
697 Likely Voters
Margin of Error
3.8%
Client
WCAU-TV Philadelphia
WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre
KDKA-TV Pittsburgh
President, IN
9/10/2004
Bush (R)
60%
Kerry (D)
36%
Other/Undecided
4%
Data Collected
9/7/04 - 9/9/04
Geography
State of Indiana
Sample Population
692 Likely Voters
Margin of Error
3.8%
Client
WXIN-TV Indianapolis
President, KS
9/10/2004
Bush (R)
60%
Kerry (D)
35%
Other/Undecided
5%
Data Collected
9/7/04 - 9/9/04
Geography
State of Kansas
Sample Population
604 Likely Voters
Margin of Error
4.0%
Client
KWCH-TV Wichita
President, KY
9/10/2004
Bush (R)
56%
Kerry (D)
39%
Other/Undecided
5%
Data Collected
9/7/04 - 9/9/04
Geography
State of Kentucky
Sample Population
665 Likely Voters
Margin of Error
3.9%
Client
WHAS-TV Louisville
WLEX-TV Lexington
President, OH
9/9/2004
Bush (R)
50%
Kerry (D)
47%
Other/Undecided
4%
Data Collected
9/6/04 - 9/8/04
Geography
State of Ohio
Sample Population
709 Likely Voters
Margin of Error
3.8%
Client
WCPO-TV Cincinnati
WKYC-TV Cleveland
President, NC
9/9/2004
Bush (R)
50%
Kerry (D)
46%
Other/Undecided
5%
Data Collected
9/6/04 - 9/8/04
Geography
State of North Carolina
Sample Population
587 Likely Voters
Margin of Error
4.2%
Client
WBTV-TV Charlotte
WTVD-TV Raleigh-Durham
President, CA
9/9/2004
Kerry-Edwards (D)
52%
Bush-Cheney (R)
42%
Other/Undecided
5%
Data Collected
9/6/04 - 9/8/04
Geography
State of California
Sample Population
598 Likely Voters
Margin of Error
4.1%
Client
KABC-TV Los Angeles
KPIX-TV San Francisco
KXTV-TV Sacramento
KGTV-TV San Diego


If you're into older polls, there are 17 other states at that page going back to May. Also, lots of PDF press releases going into greater detail for each of their current polls (and probabl some links in the tables up above).
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DrDirt
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#2 Posted on 14.9.04 1635.31
Reposted on: 14.9.11 1637.04
Why in the world would anyone bother polling Kansas. We last went Dem in 1964.
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#3 Posted on 14.9.04 1649.58
Reposted on: 14.9.11 1651.35
CRZ, when they were getting CA accurate, do you recall if they had one source from CA who was getting it right, or if they had a bevy of different ones? Because I worry if maybe they had just one good CA station/paper who called it right that they might not be as dependable nationally/outside of CA.
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#4 Posted on 14.9.04 1803.23
Reposted on: 14.9.11 1803.25
WEll, if this poll is accurate, and the numbers remain much the same, its W in '04! Everybody who has won Ohio has won the election since about the turn of the century. the 1800s - 1900's that is. (or some other long away time like that)
It's False
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#5 Posted on 14.9.04 1825.41
Reposted on: 14.9.11 1828.00
    Originally posted by DrDirt
    Why in the world would anyone bother polling Kansas. We last went Dem in 1964.


Ditto a similar notion in California. It's been years since California's gone to the Republicans and Gray Davis ineptitude aside, this state isn't about to turn to Bush anytime soon.

Besides that, I like to think that Arnold was elected based on his celebrity status rather than because of his party affiliation.
Crimedog
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#6 Posted on 14.9.04 2346.32
Reposted on: 14.9.11 2347.31
    Originally posted by It's False
    Ditto a similar notion in California. It's been years since California's gone to the Republicans and Gray Davis ineptitude aside, this state isn't about to turn to Bush anytime soon.

    Besides that, I like to think that Arnold was elected based on his celebrity status rather than because of his party affiliation.


Yeah, but California's actually a possible win for Bush this year. A 10-percent gap right now has to have Karl Rove licking his chops. If Kerry keeps shooting himself in the foot and the Governator can deliver California, look out.

As for Ohio, no Republican has ever won the election without winning Ohio. I can't, off the top of my head, think of the last time a Democrat won without winning the state. Besides having a goodly number of electoral votes, Ohio's pretty representative of "America" in general, so it's usually a pretty good predictor of the mood of the nation.

(edited by Crimedog on 15.9.04 0047)
Nag
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#7 Posted on 15.9.04 0003.46
Reposted on: 15.9.11 0003.53
"Besides having a goodly number of electoral votes, Ohio's pretty representative of "America" in general, so it's usually a pretty good predictor of the mood of the nation."

Yes, therefore everyone on this board should take my words as gospel We should enjoy the attention we are getting because with my age group packing up and moving west, and the old hardhats dying off, we will have the electoral power, of say, South Carolina by 2020.

I wonder though, why Indiana leans so far towards Bush in this poll, while it's counterparts in Pennsylvania and Ohio are both comfy within the margin of error. Any Hoosiers care to shed some light?


(edited by Nag on 15.9.04 0106)
DrDirt
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#8 Posted on 15.9.04 0815.53
Reposted on: 15.9.11 0817.10
    Originally posted by Nag
    I wonder though, why Indiana leans so far towards Bush in this poll, while it's counterparts in Pennsylvania and Ohio are both comfy within the margin of error. Any Hoosiers care to shed some light?


    (edited by Nag on 15.9.04 0106)


I am not a Hoosier but anyone who looks at Ind. sees it is a rural, conservative state. And much of PA and Ohio are the same way. The difference is the large urban centers in those states. Much of Ohio is very, very conservative but there aren't a lot of voters there.
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#9 Posted on 15.9.04 0905.33
Reposted on: 15.9.11 0911.02
After going to the website of these polls, I have to say that this thing is way too close to call. Pa, Mo, OH and NC are both well within the margin of error and have enough undecided votes to turn it either way. I kinda wish everyone would stop the Bush is going to win by a landslide when in all actuality, its way to close to call. Even our friend with the electoral vote counter is bit off since, he didn't put Pa in Kerry's column and decided to put a new vote poll that had Bush winning Ohio by nine points instead of one in which it was tied. It also doesn't have Maine in Kerry's column which SurveyUSA has. I am thinking these polls are going to get blown out of portion by the media and everyone here as usual.
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#10 Posted on 15.9.04 0958.20
Reposted on: 15.9.11 0959.01
    Originally posted by DrDirt
      Originally posted by Nag
      I wonder though, why Indiana leans so far towards Bush in this poll, while it's counterparts in Pennsylvania and Ohio are both comfy within the margin of error. Any Hoosiers care to shed some light?


      (edited by Nag on 15.9.04 0106)


    I am not a Hoosier but anyone who looks at Ind. sees it is a rural, conservative state. And much of PA and Ohio are the same way. The difference is the large urban centers in those states. Much of Ohio is very, very conservative but there aren't a lot of voters there.


A fair assessment, Doc. Other than Indianapolis and Gary Metro, I suspect we don't have any other cities over 250,000 metro. South Bend might be close, as is Ft. Wayne and Terre Haute. There's a lot of folks where I live too, close to Louisville.

It interesting though. Our Governor is democrat. But the one we elected (he died) was a Zell Miller conservative dem. (the one running isn't so much). One of our Senators is a fairly conservative Dem (Evan Bayh) and one is a somewhat moderate Republican (Richard Lugar). The fairly moderate US Rep running where I am located is having some trouble against a wild-eyed very conservative republican. Looks like the moderate republican is neck and neck against the Governor (the Lt. Governor who stepped in when O'Bannon died) in their race.

Rural people (and I used to was one) want the government OUT of their business, so traditionally, they have voted for Republicans. That's one reason. There is a limited number of minorities here (outside of the areas I mentioned), so that traditional block is gone. (in fact, I was talking the other day to a pal from high school who still lives in the same small town and he told me that, as far as he knows, there are still no blacks or hispanics living in the county I grew up in. (all farm country).

Our base is not manufacturing (other than a few places like Gary or Anderson/Kokomo), but Agricultural.
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