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The 7 - Current Events & Politics - Bush ahead by 11 points Register and log in to post!
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StaggerLee
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#1 Posted on 4.9.04 0012.08
Reposted on: 4.9.11 0013.31
http://www.time.com/time/press_releases/article/0,8599,692562,00.html


    New York: For the first time since the Presidential race became a two person contest last spring, there is a clear leader, the latest TIME poll shows. If the 2004 election for President were held today, 52% of likely voters surveyed would vote for President George W. Bush, 41% would vote for Democratic nominee John Kerry, and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader, according to a new TIME poll conducted from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2. Poll results are available on TIME.com and will appear in the upcoming issue of TIME magazine, on newsstands Monday, Sept. 6.

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ekedolphin
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#2 Posted on 4.9.04 0044.59
Reposted on: 4.9.11 0045.34
Bah. Could be artificially high because of the convention. Dubya has always been very good at baffling people with bullshit.
Pool-Boy
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#3 Posted on 4.9.04 0128.24
Reposted on: 4.9.11 0129.01
    Originally posted by ekedolphin
    Bah. Could be artificially high because of the convention. Dubya has always been very good at baffling people with bullshit.


Well, I wouldn't acribe THAT to a reason for the bounce, but I do think it is fairly temporary.

Though it does say something that he got a bounce out of his convention and Kerry did not. That fact alone might spell bad things for Kerry...
PalpatineW
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#4 Posted on 4.9.04 0336.12
Reposted on: 4.9.11 0336.50
    Originally posted by ekedolphin
    Bah. Could be artificially high because of the convention. Dubya has always been very good at baffling people with bullshit.


Alternatively, maybe people like him.
Zeruel
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#5 Posted on 4.9.04 1047.38
Reposted on: 4.9.11 1047.46
    Originally posted by PalpatineW
      Originally posted by ekedolphin
      Bah. Could be artificially high because of the convention. Dubya has always been very good at baffling people with bullshit.


    Alternatively, maybe people like him.


Yep, about 524 people out of 1008 in the poll like him. Sounds like such a small sample to be so worked up over.

There were 512 people in my graduating class back in 1995. I'd give it more notice if the sample size was 20,000+

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040904/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_rdp&cid=694&ncid=716
DrDirt
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#6 Posted on 4.9.04 1119.46
Reposted on: 4.9.11 1120.57
    Originally posted by Zeruel
      Originally posted by PalpatineW
        Originally posted by ekedolphin
        Bah. Could be artificially high because of the convention. Dubya has always been very good at baffling people with bullshit.


      Alternatively, maybe people like him.


    Yep, about 524 people out of 1008 in the poll like him. Sounds like such a small sample to be so worked up over.

    There were 512 people in my graduating class back in 1995. I'd give it more notice if the sample size was 20,000+

    http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040904/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_rdp&cid=694&ncid=716


We've been over this before. Done right a poll is accurate. And to repeat again, the key is electoral votes, not popular vote. And as has been stated before, it's the convention bounce and both candidates have two months to screw it up or make hay.
AWArulz
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#7 Posted on 4.9.04 1153.17
Reposted on: 4.9.11 1155.36
    Originally posted by DrDirt
    We've been over this before. Done right a poll is accurate. And to repeat again, the key is electoral votes, not popular vote. And as has been stated before, it's the convention bounce and both candidates have two months to screw it up or make hay.



Sure we have, Doc - but it's interesting - I refer you to this:

    Originally posted by DrDirt

    I think you hit the nail on the head. The nation is polarized enough that the pool of the undecided is smaller than usual. Also, there was essentially no coverage and the last of August is a terrible time to hold a convention as it's when half the country is on vacation.


I guess everybody's back from vacation...

and this, from the same thread called "no Bounce for kerry" from The-W

    Originally posted by someone or another

    Well, according to this little electoral projector, Kerry actually did receive a nice little bump. Prior to the convention he merely had a 291-237 lead (+54). Now he's up 328-210 (+118)


Oops, now President Bush is up 270 to 253, I think. That's a 135 point turnaround, according to this wesite, anyway.

(edited by AWArulz on 4.9.04 1300)
OlFuzzyBastard
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#8 Posted on 4.9.04 1310.32
Reposted on: 4.9.11 1313.13
That Time poll is so contrary to every other one I've seen. There hasn't been another one that puts either candidate ahead by more than four or five points. I think there may have been some kind of abberation here.

    Originally posted by AWArulz
      Originally posted by DrDirt
      We've been over this before. Done right a poll is accurate. And to repeat again, the key is electoral votes, not popular vote. And as has been stated before, it's the convention bounce and both candidates have two months to screw it up or make hay.



    Sure we have, Doc - but it's interesting - I refer you to this:

      Originally posted by DrDirt

      I think you hit the nail on the head. The nation is polarized enough that the pool of the undecided is smaller than usual. Also, there was essentially no coverage and the last of August is a terrible time to hold a convention as it's when half the country is on vacation.


    I guess everybody's back from vacation...

    and this, from the same thread called "no Bounce for kerry" from The-W

      Originally posted by someone or another

      Well, according to this little electoral projector, Kerry actually did receive a nice little bump. Prior to the convention he merely had a 291-237 lead (+54). Now he's up 328-210 (+118)


    Oops, now President Bush is up 270 to 253, I think. That's a 135 point turnaround, according to this wesite, anyway.

    (edited by AWArulz on 4.9.04 1300)


Yeah, but they're giving Bush PA for some reason, which is contrary to everything I've seen locally. If you switch that one over, it puts Kerry up 273 to 249. (In fact, if you look at the massive amount of states that are within the margin of error - all the "barely" states - this thing could quite easily go either way.)
SlipperyPete
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#9 Posted on 4.9.04 1453.52
Reposted on: 4.9.11 1455.24
    Originally posted by OlFuzzyBastard
    That Time poll is so contrary to every other one I've seen. There hasn't been another one that puts either candidate ahead by more than four or five points.
Newsweek has Bush with a double digit lead, also.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5915140/site/newsweek/
Big Bad
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#10 Posted on 4.9.04 1834.37
Reposted on: 4.9.11 1836.51
Can we put an end to the poll threads? Seriously, it goes back and forth between posts saying "This poll indicates trouble for so-and-so" and posts saying "Polls are meaningless!" depending on which candidate happens to be ahead.
CRZ
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#11 Posted on 4.9.04 1854.43
Reposted on: 4.9.11 1859.01
    Originally posted by Big Bad
    Can we put an end to the poll threads?
I don't mind seeing links to the latest polls, but the seemingly immediate responses from people in denial about legitimate polling procedures do need to stop.
DrDirt
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#12 Posted on 4.9.04 2231.03
Reposted on: 4.9.11 2232.12
    Originally posted by Big Bad
    Can we put an end to the poll threads? Seriously, it goes back and forth between posts saying "This poll indicates trouble for so-and-so" and posts saying "Polls are meaningless!" depending on which candidate happens to be ahead.


They are interesting when in context. The bounce is the result of two things IMO. One, they put on a more effective convention than the Dems. Two, the Dems held theirs in the middle of summer and vacation season whereas the Reps were smart enough to have theirs when school has started and people are getting back into normal routines.
CRZ
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#13 Posted on 5.9.04 0655.30
Reposted on: 5.9.11 0657.18
    Originally posted by DrDirt
    Two, the Dems held theirs in the middle of summer and vacation season whereas the Reps were smart enough to have theirs when school has started and people are getting back into normal routines.
I believe tradition has had the incumbent party ALWAYS getting to schedule their convention second, so there weren't a whole lotta smarts involved there.
DrDirt
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#14 Posted on 5.9.04 1632.15
Reposted on: 5.9.11 1632.37
    Originally posted by CRZ
      Originally posted by DrDirt
      Two, the Dems held theirs in the middle of summer and vacation season whereas the Reps were smart enough to have theirs when school has started and people are getting back into normal routines.
    I believe tradition has had the incumbent party ALWAYS getting to schedule their convention second, so there weren't a whole lotta smarts involved there.


True and I think it was later than usual due to when the Olympics fell.
Lafayette
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#15 Posted on 6.9.04 0906.38
Reposted on: 6.9.11 0907.52
It sets a bad trend for Kerry, that is for sure. However, I agree that this is only a temporary bounce. I would like to add that the economy is rolling along just fine and there are a crapload of new homeowners out there.

This makes Kerry look like a buffoon when his minions state over and over the next depression is coming...

As we all know by now the key to this election is the minuscule independents. So, I think we can safely say that the whole of the election, barring major scandal......scratch that, abu gharab (sp) did nothing, I think it all goes down to the three (two?) debates forthcoming.

If President Bush can make it through the debates staying on point and not garbling his words like a moron he'll win. If he gets cornholed by the liberal moderators (ringers) they lined up with loaded side questions and starts babbling like a fool he's in trouble.

That's my opine. The debates will settle this in the end.

One final point. Governor Jeb Bush has done an excellent job leading Florida through their ongoing tragedies. He is very well thought of in that state and I can guarantee it will be going to his brother this year. President Bush is going to be sending GOBS of loot down to the Floridians helping them in their most desperate hour. Payback comes in November.

I'm not positive but my personal belief is four more years. The Dem's will have to wait until 2008 before they have another shot at making us a Socialist gutter.



(edited by Lafayette on 6.9.04 0707)
Grimis
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#16 Posted on 7.9.04 0744.44
Reposted on: 7.9.11 0747.34
It's very telling that Kerry got a 2-3 point bounce and Bush has a double-digit bounce.

Kerry is toast folks.
DrOp
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#17 Posted on 7.9.04 0806.48
Reposted on: 7.9.11 0807.31
Incidentally, here are the results of the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallop poll.

    Originally posted by CNN
    Bush's convention bounce appeared to be 2 percentage points [in a poll conducted Sept. 3-5]...

    Among registered voters in the most recent poll, Bush and Kerry were about even -- 49 percent to 48 percent respectively -- with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.



I don't know that this means anything, but it contradicts all those 11 point lead stories, so I thought I'd post it as a counter-point.

It is also interesting that some of the swing states (like Ohio) have unemployment rates much higher than the national average.



(edited by DrOp on 7.9.04 0929)
A Fan
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#18 Posted on 7.9.04 0807.55
Reposted on: 7.9.11 0807.59
Wrong again, Republicans. New CNN/USA Today poll suggest it was a 2 perecent bounce.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/06/presidential.poll/index.html


No one is toast and this is thing is closer than anyone wants to admitt. Nice of the Republican spin doctors to get out there, but it looks like whatever poll Time and Newsweek was running is flawed. We are back to even playing ground and I know why Pa is going Kerry and you don't.
Nuclear Winter
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#19 Posted on 7.9.04 0848.05
Reposted on: 7.9.11 0848.08
Okay, I'm a little confused. Maybe A Fan can explain it to me.

Two polls (Time, Newsweek) show Bush with a double digit bounce.

A new poll (CNN/USA Today/Gallup) shows Bush getting only a two point bounce.

Obviously, the previous two polls were hugely flawed and have no bearing whatsoever in anything.

Is it not possible that the CNN poll is flawed?
Grimis
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#20 Posted on 7.9.04 0954.04
Reposted on: 7.9.11 0955.08
(deleted by Grimis on 7.9.04 1054)
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