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The 7 - Current Events & Politics - CBS News Poll: Race is Dead Heat Register and log in to post!
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Grimis
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#1 Posted on 20.8.04 0700.58
Reposted on: 20.8.11 0701.28
This is definately a bad sign for Kerry:
    Originally posted by CBS News 8/19/04
    Just after the Democratic convention, John Kerry led President George W. Bush by a small margin; the recent tightening of the race reflects a loss of support for Kerry among some of this election’s most contested groups: Independents, veterans and Catholic voters.

    If the presidential election were being held today, and Ralph Nader were on the ballot in most states, 46 percent of voters said they would vote for John Kerry and John Edwards, and 45 percent would support George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. The Nader-Camejo ticket, which is having a difficult time making the ballot in many states, receives just 1 percent of the vote.
Just as important though are the Veterans:
    Originally posted by CBS News
    The appearance of his fellow Vietnam veterans at the Democratic convention helped John Kerry’s support among veterans, but the recent attacks on his Vietnam service may have moved veterans’ support back toward George W. Bush now. Kerry is running well behind his opponent among veterans; now, 55 percent of veterans back Bush, and 37 percent back Kerry. A few weeks ago, both candidates were tied among veterans.
Kerry has also lost six points for Independnets since the convention. And here is another fun fact that leads to bad news for Kerry:
    Originally posted by CBS News
    Kerry’s voters admit that their vote is as much a vote against Bush as it is for Kerry. 46 percent of Kerry’s supporters say they are voting mainly against Bush, while 49 percent say they are mainly voting for John Kerry. In contrast, eight in ten of George Bush’s supporters are voting for their candidate.
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redsoxnation
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#2 Posted on 20.8.04 0711.58
Reposted on: 20.8.11 0712.32
Its a national poll, so it has very little value. It credibility is also damaged by stating it works on the assumption Nader is on the ballot in most states, while stating he is having difficulty achieving this goal. I disagree somewhat with Grimis in his belief that the large chunk of Kerry supporters who are motivated by being anti-Bush is a detriment to Kerry. Rather, that means Kerry could pull an Admiral Stockdale in the debates and they'll still vote for him.
What would have been a more interesting idea for CBS would be finding out whether all the Democratic scandals in New Jersey is putting that state into play for Bush. That would mean Kerry and Bush would have to go deep into their coffers for NYC media buys if Jersey is fought for, causing them to have to reconsider where to put resources.
Grimis
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#3 Posted on 20.8.04 0726.50
Reposted on: 20.8.11 0727.39
Well, SurveryUSA has California within the margin of error(49-46 Kerry), so who really knows.

Incidentally, SurveyUSA also has Bush up in Nevada(by 3), North Carolina(by 6), Missouri(by 1), and Colorado as a dead heat.
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#4 Posted on 20.8.04 0848.36
Reposted on: 20.8.11 0848.51
Wont the real proof happen after the Republican convention? Another factor IMHO is what happens to oil prices.
JoshMann
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#5 Posted on 20.8.04 0853.52
Reposted on: 20.8.11 0858.20
    Originally posted by DrDirt
    Another factor IMHO is what happens to oil prices.


I know in the state of Florida (and these are job-related sources) there's currently a temporary repeal of certain gas taxes as a way to keep prices about 10-15 lower per gallon at least in the month of August. Although after August 31 there's a good chance prices shoot back up here.

Now, you'd think they'd have repealed it up until, say, November 7 or so. Since the average voter here doesn't even know there's a tax repeal in play.

JayJayDean
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#6 Posted on 20.8.04 0854.51
Reposted on: 20.8.11 0858.35
Won't this all be irrelevant anyway after they magically "find" bin Laden October 1 or so? ;)
OlFuzzyBastard
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#7 Posted on 20.8.04 1018.07
Reposted on: 20.8.11 1021.17
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    Its a national poll, so it has very little value.


Here's an up-to-date electoral college projection (seemingly based on averaging several polls) that puts Kerry ahead by 116 electoral votes. And the guy running the site is a pretty outspoken Bush supporter, too.
Malarky
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#8 Posted on 20.8.04 1023.13
Reposted on: 20.8.11 1023.17
The most important polls, the battleground states, show an advantage for Kerry. He's leading in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin........

Bush is in big trouble no matter how you slice it.
SKLOKAZOID
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#9 Posted on 20.8.04 1030.08
Reposted on: 20.8.11 1030.58
Bush can still pull ahead at this point. He's not in that big of a rut. Especially since the sanitized Republican National Convention is next week, where they will lock up all of the crazy Republicans for a weekend and trot out more moderate ones. And Ahnuld.

The race is going to be REALLY on in September/October. Then, we'll have a real picture of how things are going to turn out.
redsoxnation
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#10 Posted on 20.8.04 1844.54
Reposted on: 20.8.11 1845.52
    Originally posted by Grimis
    Well, SurveryUSA has California within the margin of error(49-46 Kerry), so who really knows.

    Incidentally, SurveyUSA also has Bush up in Nevada(by 3), North Carolina(by 6), Missouri(by 1), and Colorado as a dead heat.






I'd love to see it happen, but Bush winning California is up there with pulling a royal flush on a 4 card draw in terms of probability. However, if the improbable happens, it would probably be with Arnold carrying him. Considering he can't run in 2008 himself, that would put Arnold in the position of being kingmaker for the Republican Party, with the whole gaggle of 2008 candidates having to go to Sacramento to pay homage before heading to Iowa and New Hampshire.
MoeGates
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#11 Posted on 20.8.04 1901.37
Reposted on: 20.8.11 1902.20
The race is going to be REALLY on in September/October. Then, we'll have a real picture of how things are going to turn out.

Absolutely - all that's going on right now is the setup. Polls are almost meaningless (although I dont' expect them to change much).

Here's what's going on - Kerry is trying to reach a credibility threshold with the voters on security, and Bush is trying to stop him. Kerry doesn't need to be tougher than Bush, or have Bush be the draft dodger and Keryy the hero, or have a bigger dick than Bush, or whatever. He just needs to convince voters "when the chips are down, I've got the nads to pull the trigger." That puts the election firmly on domestic ground, where he's at a big advantage.

Bush, on the other hand, is trying, and has been trying to convince voters "you know, maybe this guy is just a little too soft for the big job nowdays." If he can get that thought into the mainstream, it doesn't matter how big an advantage Kerry has on domestic issues. All the macho posturing, bullshit ads, low-blows and half-truths by shady organizations, really everything that's going on right now, is part of this dynamic. I think this particular debate will be over at the end of the month. Either Kerry will have met the credibility threshold with enough voters or he won't have. Then the real race will begin. If he hasn't met this threshold he'll get clobbered. If he has, the debate shifts to other issues where (and I'm sure my GOP colleges will disagree with me) Kerry's got the advantage, although it'll still be a race.

It's not that different from a Mayoral election here in NYC. It's a Liberal town, and generally the liberal will win. But, before that even comes into play, you have to convince the voters you're tough on crime. In 1997, Ruth Messinger couldn't meet the credibility threshold on crime - so even though people disliked Guiliani on a lot of levels, Messinger got clobbered.

As for the polls being "bad news" for Kerry, it's as easy or easier to spin it as being bad news for Bush. Very low approval rating for an incumbent, a solid, sizable core block that hates him, and in a dead heat, undecides usually break 3-1 for the challenger.

(edited by MoeGates on 20.8.04 2004)
Jaguar
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#12 Posted on 21.8.04 1725.59
Reposted on: 21.8.11 1727.49
Right, I would think that everything these days is bad news for Bush. Where's that 70% approval rating?

-Jag
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#13 Posted on 21.8.04 2035.20
Reposted on: 21.8.11 2037.20
Probably somewhere packed next to the WMD, I'd guess.
jivesoulbro
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#14 Posted on 22.8.04 0302.21
Reposted on: 22.8.11 0303.06
    Originally posted by Grimis
    This is definately a bad sign for Kerry:
      Originally posted by CBS News 8/19/04
      Just after the Democratic convention, John Kerry led President George W. Bush by a small margin; the recent tightening of the race reflects a loss of support for Kerry among some of this election’s most contested groups: Independents, veterans and Catholic voters.

      If the presidential election were being held today, and Ralph Nader were on the ballot in most states, 46 percent of voters said they would vote for John Kerry and John Edwards, and 45 percent would support George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. The Nader-Camejo ticket, which is having a difficult time making the ballot in many states, receives just 1 percent of the vote.


    This Swift Boat thing is either going to run out of steam in the next couple of weeks or it is going to backfire badly on the Republicans. The more we learn about these folks, I think, the more Vietnam stays in the discussion, I think it works for Kerry. He has taken some hits, but these guys have been so sloppy that it's going to come back to bite them in the ass. The latest example would be the Chicago Trib guy reluctantly coming out and defending Kerry.

    I think a much more successful attack for the GOP will be questioning Kerry's Senate record and this bit about how he missed all the Intel Committee hearings. Of course, we went 18 months without a governor here in TX while Bush was running. Hell, it's only the second-largest state in the union, why do we need leadership?
MoeGates
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#15 Posted on 22.8.04 1249.50
Reposted on: 22.8.11 1252.20
I agree. Rather than risk the backlash (which I think is already happening), the Bush campaign should focus on the traditional way of beating up Senate incumbents - taking their various routine votes and attendence and such out of context. I remember in the 1998 Wisconsin Senate race, Mark Neumann made a whole campaign issue with ads and everything out of Russ Feingold's supposed vote to spend $xx,xxx to study cow farts. That year the GOP also had a stock commercial (used in a few different races) with a little old lady talking about how the democrats had voted to spend her social security money (although, to be fair, that's usually a Democrat tactic). You can take a myriad of routine authorizations and such and find something like this for any and every senator. It's a pretty tried-and-true tactic.

Unless the whole goal of the Bush campaign was to make Kerry blow some dough responding when he didn't want to, which is probably not a minor consideration.

(edited by MoeGates on 22.8.04 1351)
Grimis
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#16 Posted on 22.8.04 1732.25
Reposted on: 22.8.11 1733.11
    Originally posted by jivesoulbro
    I think a much more successful attack for the GOP will be questioning Kerry's Senate record and this bit about how he missed all the Intel Committee hearings.
Except the Swifties ads are working. That's what has the Kerry campaign in a tizzy about the 527 Swift Boat Vets group spending $500,000 on these ads after the $60 million + of MoveOn.org et al attacking Bush. (The irony being that the media is killing Kerry here because the ads were brought to a much wider audience).

Besides, it is hard to attack Kerry's senate record because there really isn't one there. That's why Kerry is not talking about the last thirty years...
MoeGates
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#17 Posted on 22.8.04 1815.24
Reposted on: 22.8.11 1817.40
There's that Liberal Media for you again.
jivesoulbro
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#18 Posted on 22.8.04 1938.55
Reposted on: 22.8.11 1939.18
    Originally posted by Grimis
      Originally posted by jivesoulbro
      I think a much more successful attack for the GOP will be questioning Kerry's Senate record and this bit about how he missed all the Intel Committee hearings.
    Except the Swifties ads are working. That's what has the Kerry campaign in a tizzy about the 527 Swift Boat Vets group spending $500,000 on these ads after the $60 million + of MoveOn.org et al attacking Bush. (The irony being that the media is killing Kerry here because the ads were brought to a much wider audience).
    ---------------


    They may be working in the short term in terms of generating a lot of conversation, but I think they're going backfire in the long run. It'll be a story until Bush condemns them. Kerry's condemnation of the moveon ads was bullshit, I think we can all agree, but it was a smart move because he can say he condemned and Bush didn't. And I don't think Kerry is really in a tizzy -- these ads running just gives folks like the guy from the Chicago Trib the reason to come out and defend him.

    Then again, Rove's mentor was Atwater, who brought us Willie Horton. And Horton was unfortunate, but it worked for Bush. Maybe they're taking the same chance, and maybe they'll be right again.


    (edited by jivesoulbro on 22.8.04 1940)
PalpatineW
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#19 Posted on 23.8.04 0024.06
Reposted on: 23.8.11 0027.05
What, exactly, is wrong with the example of Willie Horton? Horton did some pretty repugant, evil things. Dukakis set him free to do these things. Is it wrong to call people to account for what they've done? Or, is it just wrong when certain taboos are involved, i.e. race/war service? Does Horton's race have any bearing whatsoever on the fact that he, through a Dukakis-supported initiative, was freed to rape a woman? Is 16 years long enough to stop beating a dead horse?

(edited by PalpatineW on 23.8.04 0129)
Grimis
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#20 Posted on 23.8.04 0617.22
Reposted on: 23.8.11 0619.33
    Originally posted by jivesoulbro
    It'll be a story until Bush condemns them. Kerry's condemnation of the moveon ads was bullshit, I think we can all agree, but it was a smart move because he can say he condemned and Bush didn't.
Except Bush has condemned all 527 ads....repeatedly.

    Originally posted by jivesoulbro
    And I don't think Kerry is really in a tizzy -- these ads running just gives folks like the guy from the Chicago Trib the reason to come out and defend him.
The guy from the Trib is the editor who, last time I checked, was supposed to maintain journalistic neutrality.

    Originally posted by jivesoulbro
    Then again, Rove's mentor was Atwater, who brought us Willie Horton. And Horton was unfortunate, but it worked for Bush. Maybe they're taking the same chance, and maybe they'll be right again.
There's nothing that really can be said that already hasn't been said, but that is moral relativism for ya.
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