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The 7 - Random - Oscar Predictions
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SeVen ™
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#1 Posted on 21.3.02 0939.53
Reposted on: 21.3.09 0940.20
I don't know about you all, but I am a certified movie nut. Now that WM X-8 is in the books lets do some Oscar predicting.



Best Picture



A Beautiful Mind

Gosford Park

In the Bedroom

The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Moulin Rouge



The nerd in me, would be jazzed if LOTR wins the big one. But the Academy's 74 year elitest snobs towards sci-fi is any indication (E.T., Wizard Of Oz anyone?) chances are we will be seeing Ron Howard's big teeth and bald spot on stage again. Not to say A Beautiful Mind is a bad movie, it's just I hate to see a movie made for the specific purpose of winning an Oscar (see The Stepmom, Patch Adams, I Am Sam..etc).



I wouldn't mind if Moulin Rouge won either. But, I hope that damn Gosford Park loses. More on that later.



Best Actor



Denzel Washington - Training Day

Russell Crowe - A Beautiful Mind

Sean Penn - I Am Sam

Tom Wilkinson - In the Bedroom

Will Smith - Ali



This is the second hardest catagory for me to pick. I will say that Ali could have been better. And this is coming from a die-hard boxing fan. As the case in 2000 for Tom Hanks in Castaway, Will put a lot onto that role and you can really tell, even if the movie was sub-par. I don't think he will win. To his credit though to go from a rapper (and not a good one at that) to an Oscar nominated actor is mind blowing. NOTE: No actor has ever won Best Actor without having his movie nominated for best picture. They may try to punish hot headed Russel Crowe. And if you believe the tabloids, is really getting a big head. I don't think he deserves the Tom Hank-back to back oscar. I am also convinced he won for Gladiator as an apology for getting snubbed for L.A. Confidential and The Insider.



Sean Penn should get sued by Dustin Hoffman for jacking his entire Rain Man charactor. I hated that movie, sorry. Tom did good in In The Bedroom. Although it put me to sleep. So that leave Big Den. Training Day was no where near his capablity. Although he did play an awesome bad guy (was I the only one rooting for Denzel putting one in Ethan's head?) I think he will win as a way of the academy saying "Hey sorry for screwing you over The Hurricane, and about 10 other roles you did, but we owed Russel one".



Best Actress



Halle Berry - Monster's Ball

Judi Dench - Iris

Nicole Kidman - Moulin Rouge

Renee Zelwegger - Bridget Jones's Diary

Sissy Spacek - In the Bedroom



Now this is the hardest catagory for me to pick. Every lady did a terrfic job here. It really comes down to two Actresses. Halle and Nicole. Nicole Kidman to me, in 2001 went from being that "skinny bitch who married Cruise and got naked in Dead Calm" to "Holy Shit this lady can act". Moulin Rouge and The Others are now on my top 20 list. She can do no wrong in my eyes anymore. I feel she may get punished by her peers because she is really so into her country and Tom was her only anchor to Hollywood. And Halle, I can't believe 4 years ago she made B.A.P.S. A lot of people still haven't seen Monster's Ball and it is a shame. They may give it to her for that reason alone, not counting she pulled off the performance of the year. I can't believe she did Swordfish after seeing this.



They will probable give it to Sissy. It's hard for older women to get leads in movies. And a lot of the academy is over 50. Either way everyone did a good job this year, even whiney voice Renee.



Best Director



David Lynch - Mulholland Drive

Peter Jackson - The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Ridley Scott - Black Hawk Down

Robert Altman - Gosford Park

Ron Howard - A Beautiful Mind



You should know by now, I want Lord Peter to win. He went and filmed the unfilmable. A movie that rights sat on the shelf for over 30 years because no one had the balls to try to do J.R.R. Tolkien some justice. The chances aren't good but my fingers will be crossed. Ridley has a chance but for some of the same reason as Crowe, I don't see it. Ron has the best chance. But his 1,2, Oscar formula is really starting to bore me. And the day David Lynch EVER wins a best director Oscar, is the day I swallow a test tube of semen from some random prisoner. (Christ I hope he doesn't win now) And now we have old man Robert Altman. He reminds me of Larry Z. or Bruno Sammertino. But as where those guys have a legit gripe about the business they used to love. He comes out of left field and starts bashing other people's works. Some people may not want to to watch Titanic unless bumping groins later is involved. But, to call it the most unwatchable, horriable movie ever? He hates Spielberg, Coppola, Scorsese. Has he did anything good since Mash? Ok, Ok Popeye was cool but in a Hulk Hogan nostalgia way. He hates the TV version of Mash too. Well thats his right and all, but he comes off like a hey-don't-forget-about-me crying bitch. Oh he didn't get a DGA this year so lets bash all my peers because they are beneath me. Oh, and I hated Gosford Park.



Many more awards of course. I hope Sir Ian wins best support of course. He WAS Gandalf. And this is from someone who never read the books untill the movie came out. I was a mark for C.S. Lewis back in the day


Jennifer Connely for Support and Amelie for best foreign. There should be a congresional hearing as to why they really disqualified Moulin Rouge for music. And the whole it wasn't made originally for Moulin Rouge shit don't work for me either.



See ya at the Red Carpet....

(edited by SeVen on 21.3.02 1444)
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odessasteps
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#2 Posted on 21.3.02 0944.10
Reposted on: 21.3.09 0944.16
I kept putting off this discussion here until we put our article up on the web page.

Here are my thoughts:

Our Oscar Page



(edited by odessasteps on 21.3.02 1047)
SeVen ™
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#3 Posted on 21.3.02 0954.12
Reposted on: 21.3.09 0957.52
I like that Odessasteps. We almost agree on everything except Robert Altman of course;) I forgot to mention as good as Shrek was, I think Monster's Inc should win. It just felt more....emotional. And what is up with all the animated movies nominated being CG? Only 3 good movies this year, Academy? I don't think so. Where was Vampire Hunter D: Bloodlust, Blood, (lots of vamps last year) It's time to start giving props to Anime. And lo and behold the genuis who can make a live action DragonBall and Ninja Scroll. (they were optioned for productionlast week) You will need every God in every religion to pull this one off.
Peter Jackson for a live action Akira, anyone? ;)
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#4 Posted on 21.3.02 1029.58
Reposted on: 21.3.09 1033.43
Nice work there seVen. I am a movie nut as well, but still haven't seen hardly any of the movies in the running. Perhaps it was my way of dealing with Memento not getting a damn big nomination (and I think that it will win for original screenplay).

All I know is that I saw Training Day on DVD yesterday, and I would be hard pressed to believe that any one of the other nominated actors could have played a role that is such a departure from his other roles like Denzel did.

And I HATED Mulholland Drive, so I am with you on hoping that David Lynch has to stay as far away from the Oscar podium as humanly possible.

But yeah, I see a sweep for A Beautiful Mind for best movie, director, actor, and supporting actress.
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#5 Posted on 21.3.02 1331.45
Reposted on: 21.3.09 1335.42
I haven't seen too many of these movies, but Denzel was prettty awesome in Training Day (though the movie sucked, IMO).

Anyway, I was reading Roger Ebert yesterday, and evidently ABM is getting a lot of flak in the press because the filmaker's cleaned up the main character's life in the movie. Supposedly, the guy was known as an anti-Semite. If there's really that much controversy about ABM, then I doubt it will win Best Picture.

Ebert's pick: Moulin Rouge

My Pick: LOTR. I know the Academy isn't fond of sci-fi/fantasy, but this movie was such an epic that it's hard to overlook.
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#6 Posted on 21.3.02 1527.37
Reposted on: 21.3.09 1529.02

There's a great deal of controversey about Beautiful Mind. Not just that the movie is white-washed about Nash's life.

Now, it's about rival studios leaking theses stories to try and smear the movie.

Oscar dirty tricks have become very big in recent years.

Miramax is probably the best Oscar Spin studio in Hollywood.
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#7 Posted on 21.3.02 1740.24
Reposted on: 21.3.09 1748.14
About Vampire D: Bloodlust, it was thrown out of consideration because "some of the paperwork was not filed correctly". That's complete utter bullshit, but whatever.

-Jag
SeVen ™
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#8 Posted on 21.3.02 1856.49
Reposted on: 21.3.09 1859.04
I will never forgive Miramax for the way they screwed Saving Private Ryan. 4 years later can anyone watch Shakespeare in Love over that? You shouldn't have to campaign for a movie to win. And they crossed the line with their private "for you consideration" screenings complete with champange, caviar, gift baskets, and free massages. I heard the Academy banned that after the Ryan fiasco but they are trying a lot of underhanded tactics. If you believe Ron and Russell, anyway. Which I'm sure if they don't win they won't let anyone forget that. "Hey Russell if you don't win are you going to beat the shit out of the voters?"
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#9 Posted on 21.3.02 1900.57
Reposted on: 21.3.09 1906.22
I AM THE MOVIE NUT OF THE WORLD!!! So, here's my picks...


Best Original Screenplay: Memento

Best Adapted Screenplay: Lord of the Rings

Best Foreign Film: Amelie

Best Supporting Actor: Ian McKellan

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Connelly

Best Director: Peter Jackson or Robert Altman

Best Actress: Sissy Spacek

Best Actor: Russell Crowe or Denzel Washington

Best Picture: A Beautiful Mind


Some races (Actor, Director) are too close to call...Actor mostly due to Crowe's whining. Look for LOTR to sweep most technical categories, but Black Hawk Down will pick up one or two as well... And DARN IT, Ewan McGregor really should've gotten nominated...so should've Steve Buscemi... Ah well...that's how the ball bounces, I guess...

odessasteps
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#10 Posted on 22.3.02 0656.19
Reposted on: 22.3.09 0659.01

    Originally posted by SeVen
    I will never forgive Miramax for the way they screwed Saving Private Ryan.


You mean, the horribly sentimental, easily predicatable Spielberg movie that should have gotten an NC-17 for violence but for the reputation of its cretor?

Of course, there are at least 5 movies better than either of them, most of which weren't even nominated.

SeVen ™
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#11 Posted on 22.3.02 0906.47
Reposted on: 22.3.09 0924.37
Forgive me, it could be all the Medal Of Honor: Allied Assasult I've been playing. But, Private Ryan to me is the second greatest war movie behind Tora, Tora, Tora. Don't even get me started on how great Band of Brothers is.
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#12 Posted on 22.3.02 1101.16
Reposted on: 22.3.09 1110.24

Let's see. Off the top of my head, markedly better war movies than Private Ryan:

Paths of Glory
Grand Illusion
Ran
Kagemusha
MASH
Catch 22
Patton
Full Metal Jacket
Apocalypse Now
All Quiet on the Western Front

Give me time to consult resources and I could easily get 10 times as many.
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#13 Posted on 22.3.02 1722.24
Reposted on: 22.3.09 1729.11
Hell, Black Hawk Down and We Were Soldiers are just as good violence-wise as Saving Private Ryan. And hell, Soldiers has better character development and is a true story to boot! (So is Black Hawk) So...take it for what it's worth.
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#14 Posted on 22.3.02 2048.50
Reposted on: 22.3.09 2049.17
Best Picture

A Beautiful Mind - Probabley the best out of the bunch nominated, and deserving to win.

Best Actor


Russell Crowe - A Beautiful Mind - I think Russell Crowe is deserving

but... he did win it last year

Denzel Washington - Training Day - is also a very smart bet.

Best Actress


Nicole Kidman - Moulin Rouge - I like Nicole Kidman a lot but I actually liked her a lot better in "the others" then Moulin Rouge, I like her winning too bad for the wrong movie


Best Director

Peter Jackson - The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring - Hey last year best picture and directer didn't go together so it might also happen this year... Does Lynch even know what HIS movies are about?

Best supporitng actor

Ben Kingsley - Sexy Beast
Ethan Hawke - Training Day
Ian McKellen - The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Jim Broadbent - Iris
Jon Voight - Ali

MY PICK ; IAN McKellen - He seems to be getting a bunch of support, my early pick was Voight but now I dont' think so...how the heck did Ethatn Hawke get in on this

Best supporting actress

Helen Mirren - Gosford Park
Jennifer Connelly - A Beautiful Mind
Kate Winslet - Iris
Maggie Smith - Gosford Park
Marisa Tomei - In the Bedroom

MY PICK : Marisa Tomei - in an upset, got to go with one huge upset so this is it... Mirren will probabley win... Gosford park women will split the vote


Foriegn - Amelie (she could have had a best actress nod as well)

Animation (hey I got nephews...LOL) Jimmy neutron v. Monsters Inc. v. Shrek - I like Shrek






(edited by Net Hack Slasher on 22.3.02 1900)
Karlos the Jackal
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#15 Posted on 23.3.02 0129.53
Reposted on: 23.3.09 0129.55
Here are my predictions!

BEST PICTURE
Only three movies are nominated for both Best Pic and Best Director, so it'll be one of those, and it won't be Gosford Park, which leaves us with LOtR and A Beautiful Mind. If there weren't accusations against Beautiful Mind whitewashing the characters and Russell beating up British Award show producers, it's be Beautiful Mind in a cakewalk. I'm still going with it.
Prediction: A Beautiful Mind
My Wish: I probably saw at least a half dozen films this year that I liked better than any of the nominees. That said, a LOtR win would tickle me greatly. A Gosford Park win would cause me to fall off my chair in shock.

BEST DIRECTOR
As above, it's between Ron Howard and Peter Jackson. You know, I wonder if Hollywood will balk at giving out awards to the first film in what is known to be a trilogy. Maybe they figure they can give Jackson awards for the next two years, or maybe they're scared that the next two will suck and they'll look the fool. Also, we watched Ron Howard grow up before our eyes!
Prediction: Ron Howard
My Wish: As above.

BEST ACTOR
Again, a two-person race; it's between Denzel and Russell. Again, Russell's thuggish behavior throws a wrench into the works here; does the academy want this guy to be only the third actor to ever win back-to-back Oscars, especially when he didn't deserve it last year? There's also the fact that Denzel is AMAZING in Training Day. Unfortunately, Denzel is only the second lead, and a bad guy, in a not-much-above-B-grade action flick. Crowe, on the other hand, plays a schizo AND gets to wear old age makeup - two things which the Academy finds irresistable.
Prediction: Russel Crowe
My Wish: Denzel Washington

BEST ACTRESS
It's between Sissy Spacek and Halle Berry, with Nicole Kidman as a Dark Horse.
Prediction: Sissy Spacek
My Wish: I only saw Moulin Rouge and Bridget Jones's Diary; I don't think either Kidman or Zellweger deserve it. Eh, I could go either way; Spacek or Berry.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ethan Hawke? Pfft, he sucks. This is very much between Ian McKellan and Ben Kingsley, and since they are desperately going to want to give LOtR something (and because Ben Kingsley swears so much)...
Prediction: Ian McKellan
My Wish: Kingsley. On the other hand, McKellan is an excellent rockin' dude, so I'll be happy either way. Or even better, Steve Buscemi wins as a write-in for Ghost World.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Connelly is probably the front runner here, but the Supporting Actress is almost always an upset, it seems. I'm going to go with my heart and predict Maggie Smith here, just because she rocked in Gosford Park.
Prediction: Maggie Smith
My Wish: Maggie Smith

SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL)
Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Memento
My Wish: Memento. ONE of the Screenplay award will always go to the "Citizen Kane" of the year; the really excellent movie that should have been a front runner for Best Picture race but isn't, like, well, Citizen Kane. See, in recent years, Pulp Fiction and Usual Suspects, too.
Gosford Park has a good chance at this, too, especially if Connelly takes Supporting Actress.

SCREENPLAY (ADAPTED)
Prediction: A Beautiful Mind
My Wish: Ghost World, even though I like the original graphic Novel more better.

ANIMATED FILM
Prediction: Shrek. That's as close to a lock as we get this year.
My Wish: Like I care. I didn't like Shrek. But Monsters, Inc? JIMMY NEUTRON? And Waking Life (or, hell, Final Fantasy) wasn't even NOMINATED? Fuck this noise. I walk off in protest.

FOREIGN FILM
Prediction: Amelie. Okay, that's the other lock.
My Wish: Amelie's the only one I've seen. I'm looking forward to both Lagaan and No Man's Land, though. Sure, Amelie works for me.

DOCUMENTARY
Prediction: Promises, about children (awww!) in Israel and Palestine. Why? Because Jewish-themed films ALWAYS win this. ALWAYS.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Prediction: Artists and Orphans. Awwww!
It sure isn't going to be the one about the violin-playing freak-o.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
These movies all looked GREAT.
Prediction: LOtR, although my gut is telling me to go with Moulin Rouge. Eh...I'll stick with LOtR, but I'm nervous.

VISUAL EFFECTS
Against A.I. and Pearl Harbor? HA!
Prediction: LOtR

EDITING
Prediction: Memento
This film IS editing. Actually, I kinda think Moulin Rouge will take this, but I'd be KICKING myself if I didn't predict Memento for something that it then went on to win.

LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
Prediction: The Accountant

ANIMATED SHORT
Prediction: For The Birds, 'cause it's by Pixar.

SOUND EDITING
There's only two: Monsters Inc, and Pearl Harbor. What IS this, even?
Prediction: Pearl Harbor

SOUND
Prediction: Moulin Rouge

ORIGINAL SCORE
Prediction: Lord of the Rings

ORIGINAL SONG
Bleargh to all this shit. Randy Newman NEVER wins, so it's between Sting and McCartney.
Prediction: McCartney, 'cause his wife's dead.

COSTUME DESIGN
Prediction: Moulin Rouge

ART DIRECTION
Prediction: Moulin Rouge; if not, LOtR.

MAKEUP
Prediction: LOtR, easy.

--K

(edited by Karlos the Jackal on 22.3.02 2330)
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#16 Posted on 23.3.02 1002.16
Reposted on: 23.3.09 1002.59
I think Denzel will probably win it--they're under a huge amount of pressure to award the Best Actor Oscar to a black actor, and Denzel is due. Also, I agree that they are probably hesitant to make Crowe a back-to-back winner.

Halle Berry will probably win Best Actress for similar reasons, but it's less certain.

I'm going with A BEAUTIFUL MIND for Best Picture. The others are all problematic in one way or another. LOTR is fantasy, MOULIN ROUGE will probably turn off older voters, GOSFORD PARK is, well, Altman, and I don't think he appeals to a lot of people, and IN THE BEDROOM is probably a little too depressing. Also, the Academy will probably want to make it known they don't respond to the anti ABM smear campaign--or let's put it this way, if some other film wins, there will probably always be a cloud over this year's winner in a lot of people's minds.

I will go with Opie for Best Director, but it wouldn't surprise me if Jackson won it.

Are any of the Best Documentary nominees about the Holocaust? If so, that's the one that will win.

I think Ian McKellan will win because he's due, and because they probably want to throw LOTR a bone--if they won't give Best Director to Jackson this would be perfect.

Oh, and I totally agree regarding SAVING PRIVATE RYAN...though the film was well made, it really had nothing new to say. Spielberg will never get taken as seriously as he would like until he makes a serious film that challenges people and doesn't take advantage of topics that people already feel strongly about, like WW II and the Holocaust.

And in closing, I think AMELIE was the best film of the year. It's a damn shame it didn't get more nominations. I hope it gets at least one other award besides Best Foreign, because it certainly deserves it.
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#17 Posted on 23.3.02 1445.36
Reposted on: 23.3.09 1458.26
Best Picture should most definitely go to Rings. A Beautiful Mind is, not to put to fine a point on it, a heaping helping of dog dung. Russell Crowe gives the most cliched performance EVER while the "True Story" tag is completely sullied by the total disregard of real-life events. The only saving grace is Richie C's directing, which gives it some depth beyond "Oscar Fodder". Gosford Park, while good, has no real drive and is more a character study than the tour de force a Best Picture should be. Don't get me started on Moulin Rouge-it's the equivalent of Jeff Hardy being considered for best wrestler. In The Bedroom is the only other film I'd consider for the award, but I don't see it toppling Rings.


Best Actor. Two words which I thought would never be seen at the Oscars: Will Smith. Hot DAMN, what a performance. Again, the Academy may just be assholes about it and refuse to acknowledge the mindblowing performance in Ali, but hey, I can dream, right? Denzel's the only other guy I'd want to see the award go to, although as a Brit it'd be nice to see Tom Wilkinson take it.

Best Actress-Halle Berry, no doubt. Next.


As for Best Director, anything other than Peter Jackson would be criminal. Rings was THE film of the year, mostly thanks to the grandiose sweep and vision of Jackson. Unfortunately, I can't really see him ambling up to the stage in his all his Hobbity glory, so I'd guess that Robert Altman might get his hands on the award (finally). Anything but Howard-when I think about him possibly winning, all I get is "Happy Days".
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#18 Posted on 23.3.02 1506.14
Reposted on: 23.3.09 1506.14

The thing I'm most curious about concerning Rings is this:

Part One gets 13 nominations and presumably will win a couple awards (McKellan, some tech stuff).

Does that set the bar high for parts two and three?

Will McKellan be nominated again, once he becomes Gandalf the White?

How about Viggo or Liv Tyler or Cate Blanchett?

If Jackson wins Best Director, could he repeat or even three-peat?

Just some thoughts.



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#19 Posted on 23.3.02 2030.01
Reposted on: 23.3.09 2030.17
What I think will happen is that Fellowship will probably not win a lot of the awards it's nominated for, but The Two Towers will, because I think it will probably be a better movie, more complex in its character development. I think the Academy will go gaga over it.

I'm not all that upset about A Beautiful Mind fudging a few of the facts here and there. All biopics do that. I don't think whatever the "true" story is should be taken into consideration, because the film should be judged on its own merits, not on how accurately it portrays a real event. It isn't a documentary.
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#20 Posted on 24.3.02 2348.29
Reposted on: 24.3.09 2358.00
Well Opie and his Oscar Grab got what they wanted. Feh on the whole academy I say. You know something's wrong with a process where anyone observing talks about how the movie will win, never saying it's the best movie of the year, but simply it's "the type of film the Academy likes." Oh well, some 10-20 years from now people will still talk about LOTR as one of those eternal movies that people will still watch, while Beautiful Mind will be lumped in with all of the other "movie about a sick person" flicks that no one ever really likes.
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