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The 7 - Baseball - Pre Spring Training National League Predictions
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Doc_whiskey
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#1 Posted on 25.2.04 0844.48
Reposted on: 25.2.11 0845.01
NL East:
(1) Phillies-(100-62)-A solid bullpen, some decent starting pitching, and a pretty good lineup makes me think that someone other than the Braves will win this division

(2) Braves-(88-74)-The braves still have a decent team, but the Phillies have a better team this year.

(3) Marlins-(81-81)-Obviously lost a lot, but young pitching, and a scrappy lineup will not quit during the year and will do better than some expect

(4) Mets-(77-85)-They made a few changes, but I still think they are a few years or so away from getting over .500

(5) Expos-(68-94)-They lost too much over the offseason, they will be competitive, but they are outmatched by a lot of teams

NL Central:
(1) Astros-(103-59)-I give the slight nod to the Astros because I think that while their starting pitching may not be as good as the Cubs, they are still good, and I think the lineup is a little better here.

(2) Cubs-(101-61)-I'd hate to have to face this team in the playoffs, they are very good, and if their lineup produces like they are capable of, then they may even overtake the Astros

(3) Cardinals (84-78)-This hurts since I'm a cards fan, but they didnt do much over the offseason, their pitching is still weak, and they lost some hitting

(4) Brewers (79-83)-This team is going to surprise people, they are young, and as long as they dont dump players, they will be competitive

(5) Reds (70-92)-The reds are stuck in a rut right now, but they should be in most games this year

(6) Pirates (65-97)-Terrible team with some good pitchers I almost feel sorry for.

NL West:
(1) Giants (99-63)-Their bullpen is hurting right now, but this is still a decent team

(2) Padres (88-74)-They are going to shock a lot of people this year, they have quitely put together a solid team, and their new stadium may give them a little something more to get them up for each game.

(3) Diamondbacks (84-78)-A decent team, but their pitching is a little in question with the loss of Shilling

(4) Dodgers (77-85)-How can a team with money make no moves over the offseason?

(5) Rockies (73-89)-This team is young and are a couple years away from being pretty good.
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wudis007
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#2 Posted on 25.2.04 1013.43
Reposted on: 25.2.11 1014.33
It's too bad there isn't a better way to decide the playoff picture. Baseball is getting closer to the NBA, where the West has a zillion good teams and the East has none.

In the AL, you have the Yanks and the Sawks...and outside of that a bunch of wanker teams that will probably make the playoffs(Oakland, Minnesota, W. Sox, Angels).

In the NL you have about 8 teams that are really really good and probably 4 that would finish in the playoffs if they were in the AL.

This sucks.

PLUS - The Astros, Cubs and Cardinals are probably the three best teams in the NL and only one is guaranteed a playoff spot. And one is guaranteed NOT to make it.
Whitebacon
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#3 Posted on 25.2.04 1048.32
Reposted on: 25.2.11 1048.52
The Cardinals are going to be horrible. They have half of a talented pitcher (Williams) in the rotation after Morris, no SP prospects to speak of, and Tony LaRussa/Dave Duncan are horrible with their pitchers.

I'm not sure why you're calling the A's and Mariners wanker teams, but the west has been a very tough division for the last three or four years, and the A's have won close to or more than 100 games for the last three or four seasons, not to mention the Mariners winning a near-record 116 games a couple three years ago and the Angels winning the whole damn thing in 2002. The AL Central though, is horrible.
JoshMann
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#4 Posted on 25.2.04 1102.08
Reposted on: 25.2.11 1102.51
Although really, Phily can go either way this year: they can either win 100 games or they can win 70. If Burrell's bat is still afraid of curveballs, if Thome can produce, if the pitching holds up between 3 and 5 in the rotation, if the entire team doesn't declare mutiny against Bowa and they finally learn how to win down the stretch of the season, then yes, they'll win the division.

The NL East can go potentially to anyone except for probably the Expos. Granted, the Mets would be the longshot in this scenario, but weirder things have happened and it's not as if they're devoid of talent.

Of course that all said, hello Expos, NL East Champions...since they were the only team I ruled out
Doc_whiskey
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#5 Posted on 25.2.04 1105.24
Reposted on: 25.2.11 1106.54
    Originally posted by Whitebacon
    The Cardinals are going to be horrible. They have half of a talented pitcher (Williams) in the rotation after Morris, no SP prospects to speak of, and Tony LaRussa/Dave Duncan are horrible with their pitchers.

    I'm not sure why you're calling the A's and Mariners wanker teams, but the west has been a very tough division for the last three or four years, and the A's have won close to or more than 100 games for the last three or four seasons, not to mention the Mariners winning a near-record 116 games a couple three years ago and the Angels winning the whole damn thing in 2002. The AL Central though, is horrible.


Actually from what I hear the prospect they got in the J.D. Drew deal was Atlanta's top pitching prospect
Whitebacon
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#6 Posted on 25.2.04 1111.04
Reposted on: 25.2.11 1112.27
Marquis? Atlanta never deals their best prospects. See also: Chen, Bruce.
Doc_whiskey
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#7 Posted on 25.2.04 1140.31
Reposted on: 25.2.11 1141.18
    Originally posted by Whitebacon
    Marquis? Atlanta never deals their best prospects. See also: Chen, Bruce.


No, Adam Wainwright is who I was talking about
wudis007
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#8 Posted on 25.2.04 1212.36
Reposted on: 25.2.11 1214.43
    Originally posted by Whitebacon
    The Cardinals are going to be horrible. They have half of a talented pitcher (Williams) in the rotation after Morris, no SP prospects to speak of, and Tony LaRussa/Dave Duncan are horrible with their pitchers.

    I'm not sure why you're calling the A's and Mariners wanker teams, but the west has been a very tough division for the last three or four years, and the A's have won close to or more than 100 games for the last three or four seasons, not to mention the Mariners winning a near-record 116 games a couple three years ago and the Angels winning the whole damn thing in 2002. The AL Central though, is horrible.


The west has been COMPETITIVE....but competetive and tough are two very different things. Those teams just don't seem to have much in the NUTS department...just my opinion though.
Whitebacon
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#9 Posted on 25.2.04 1226.16
Reposted on: 25.2.11 1226.52
Define NUTS. The A's have three, and maybe four pitchers that could be legitimate aces on other teams. They've lost Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada, among others. They still win close to 100 every year.

Ditto for the Mariners. They lose Johnson, Griffey, Rodriguez, and then they go out and win 116 games. They've got one of the biggest pure joys in the game to watch in Ichiro. Their GM was horrible to them, and never made any big mid-season moves to put them over the edge. They've still got a very talented team, and have one of the better up and coming pitchers in the bigs.

The Angels were bitten hard by the injury bug last year, but they made some very good moves in the off season (understatement of the year). They brought in the best starting pitcher on the market in Bartolo Colon, to anchor a rotation that's largely unchanged from the one that won the World Series in 2002. They brought in the best hitter on the market in Vlad Guerrero. Let's not forget about Texas. They may not have any pitching of their own, but they have bats that have the potential to wear down yours. 13-11 softball games are not that uncommon in the summertime heat of Arlington, Texas.

The west has been very tough in the last few years, and I don't see that changing this season. This probably belongs in the thread with AL in the title, but there you go.




(edited by Whitebacon on 25.2.04 1026)
wudis007
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#10 Posted on 25.2.04 1246.35
Reposted on: 25.2.11 1250.48
Playoffs....talking playoffs with the A's and Mariners.

And to be perfectly honest...I kinda forgot about the Angels. I still think their 2002 run was a fluke.
Iago
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#11 Posted on 25.2.04 1537.29
Reposted on: 25.2.11 1540.24
One could argue the Angels was a fluke, but simply put they have THE best bullpen in both leagues the last two years, which has to make up to weakspots on the starting rotation. Take last year for example, sure the Dodgers posted a lower Bullpen ERA, around 2.40, and the Angels posted a 3.07 I think, but looking at the difference in the leagues and well the Angels do look better.

While they have three very solid pitchers in Ortiz, Washburn and Lackey, adding Colon and Escobar makes that starting rotation one of the best in the league. And actually the Angels playing the Yanks in the first round of the playoffs was a blessing for them because they had a higher than .500 winning percentage against them while they had Scosia (Anaheim's manager... I can't for the life of me spell that name.)

The last three World Series have been won by pitching, but the last two have been won by young pitching, and people they called up from the minors. Look at the whole Marlin's rotation. And the late season call ups for the Angels.

Side note: The last two teams to win the Series were both wildcards, and both beat the Yanks.

My honest opinion? The Yankees have the Curse of Giambi, since acquiring him they have yet to win a World Series.


But this is about the National League, so let's address that shall we? I like Doc_Whiskey's picks.

They all make sense, I am going to agree with his assessment about N.L Central, the top two teams (Cubs and Astro's) will absolutely dominate the division and the league as a whole. Both possess some of the best starting rotations seen in awhile in the N.L. even better than Atlanta's heydey. The rest in the Central division isn't going to be so great. Cards have weakened up. Brewers are going to get better, but can't make it. The Pirates are the Pirates. And the Reds? They need pitching desperately, but it wont happen.

I am reluctant to take Giants out west, they're getting older and slower, and while they got Schmidt, they need some oomf in the pitching. And if Nen isn't healthy they better get a huge lead early (I am a Giants fan, and frankly comparing them to the Astros or Cubs... well it isn't a good comparison). The Diamondbacks also are a little old, they need to start picking up young talent, especially pitching. The Padres did good this off-season, and last year in trades. It is possible that a few injuries will knock the Giants out, and the Padres will over take them if that's the case. Am surprised by the Rockies, again a young team, though they need to get pitchers that throw hard. The thin air in Colorado has detrimental effects to a breaking ball. Dodgers... need the most improvement or they're going to continue their downhill trend. No conceivable way for Gagne and the bullpen to carry that team.

Ahhh the east... well let's see... I want the Expos to take it NL East, but they've lost too much. Though this part of the NL is really iffy, has been for the last few years. Sure the Braves will be good, they always are, but they have lost a lot. I don't see them able to take it this season, unless they make some great midseason moves. I am liking Philly more and more, they could pull this off, but they have to remain consistent. The Mets did good this offseason, not great but good, but they are still rebuilding. Marlins took a hit on their Lineup, but potentially their pitching staff will be a little stronger if they can avoid long stints on the DL. No one would have picked them last year, and honestly I could see them taking it on sheer chutzpah alone again this year. No




(edited by Iago on 25.2.04 1338)
redsoxnation
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#12 Posted on 25.2.04 1750.07
Reposted on: 25.2.11 1750.22
Time for some picks, and some will be shocking:

NL East

Atlanta 90-72: Its very simple. The last time the Braves didn't win the division in a season that didn't get stopped by a strike, I was 15. I'm now 29. Until someone beats them, I pick them. No logic used.

Phillies 85-77: If they didn't have Bowa, I'd consider picking them. But, seeing how this team folded like a cheap tent down the stretch last season, its tough to pick them to win the division.

Marlins 80-82: And they'll be getting 9,000 again by the end of July. Have the pitching, but Willis faded late, and I'd like to see Beckett go a season and win at least 10 games before annointing him as special.

Expos 77-85: Will contend into July and then fade. Nick Johnson should put up big numbers. Biggest question of course is whether Captain Carl Everett believes the French Language exists.

Mets 60-102: Time for a song: Meet the Mets, Greet the Mets, Come on Everyone Beats the Mets. Bullpen sucks, Glavine's on the downside quick and who knows which Al Leiter shows up this year.

NL Central

Astros 97-65: The boys of Jimmy Williams have pitching and hitting. Key is how Dotel adjusts to the closers role.

Cubs 95-67: That the Cubs will be over .500 and in the playoffs 2 straight years qualifies as a miracle, correct? Corner outfield is getting old, which is a concern.

Cardinals 81-81: Is it time to start considering taking the genius card away from LaRussa. I mean, true he's won 1 World Series in 25 years as a manager, but perhaps that was because Oakland had a loaded team. Have offense, have no pitching.

Pirates 78-84: They did hang around for a while last year. Plus, I like the other two teams in the division less.

Brewers 70-92: No real comment.

Reds 63-99: They suck.

NL West

Padres 90-72: Sure, I'm sucking up to the people running the board, but why not. Might be the young team that springs up to surprise people and steals a division.

Giants 88-74: BALCO. That will linger around Bonds all year, and cause distraction throughout. Not overly impressed with the bullpen.

Diamondbacks 82-80: Get a bat, lose an ace. Means .500 ball.

Dodgers 78-84: How does a team with no offense acquire even less offense, and then add Jeff Weaver. Always concerns Gagne could drop from perfect to only untouchable.

Rockies 75-87: Pitching staff will get battered over a stretch at home, causing them to go downhill rapidly.
Roy.
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#13 Posted on 25.2.04 1926.20
Reposted on: 25.2.11 1926.49
It would be so nice if my Phillies could actually win the NL East this year, but I just don't see it. It all depends on the re-emergence of Pat Burrell, and both Eric Milton and Billy Wagner have to stay healthy (and Wagner's already hurt). Plus, the lack of a real lead-off man (Byrd is better off in the middle of the order and Jimmy Rollins swings at the first pitch too many times) hurts them, as well. If only Abreu would bat lead-off (career.333 or some ridiculous number when he bats first) but he says he's not comfortable there. I've learned that it's safest to pick the Braves every year, at least until they prove that they can lose.
estragand
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#14 Posted on 26.2.04 1748.43
Reposted on: 26.2.11 1751.46
My NL pennant prediction is the same one I've made for the last 20+ years: Pirates. Yeah, yeah... like YOU picked the Marlins last year :)
Spiraling_Shape
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#15 Posted on 26.2.04 2132.49
Reposted on: 26.2.11 2133.35
I`m surprised at the lack of respect for the Phils' rotation, both SI and TSN left them out of the top 5 rotations. Aside from Milton`s health, they certainly don`t have the kind of question marks that the Yanks have. All five guys are capable of 10-15 wins. If Milton`s 100% recovered, he won a ton of games for the Twins before he got hurt. Actually, my bigger worry is Padilla..he was in that car accident with his best friend last year, that`s pretty scary.

(4) Dodgers (77-85)-How can a team with money make no moves over the offseason?

When they`re sold and change GMs in the middle of the offseason. Now I get to ask one!

When is a raven like a writing desk? :)
geemoney
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#16 Posted on 26.2.04 2216.26
Reposted on: 26.2.11 2217.56
Speaking of no respect, uh, how bout the FRIGGIN' WORLD CHAMPIONS!?!? Everybody's talkin' Yankees, A-Rod, Red Sox, Bartman, Braves, Phillies, Astros yadda yadda yadda. Hello folks, the Marlins are still in a great position.

They lost Encarnacion, who was a below-average (statistically) right field, and they get Miggy Cabrera for a full season. They lose Hollandsworth in left, and pick up Conine for a full season. They lose Pudge (statistically, wasn't great last year), but they have Castro, who hit 5 HR's in 53 AB's and is ready to be a full-time starter. They lose Lee, and pick up Choi/Cordero. They lose Looper/Urbina and pick up Benitez. They still have one of the best rotations in baseball, and will be getting what some call their best pitcher (Burnett) back in early May. The only trouble spot I see is the bullpen, where only Fox and Benitez are written in stone. So they've pretty much made up for all of their offseason losses.

But go ahead, write'em off again. They love being the underdog.


(edited by geemoney on 26.2.04 2317)
Iago
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#17 Posted on 26.2.04 2324.11
Reposted on: 26.2.11 2324.11
I wont write off the Marlins. They are good. But a bit inexperienced. I wont pick them, but frankly I am a bit uncertain as to who I'd pick in the N.L East, it's all really iffy.

Pretty much anyone could do it out of the Division. They're kinda like the A.L. Central, only with a few larger markets. I do think that the Marlins will be over .500, they didn't lose anyone irreplaceable, and if need be a few strong midseason moves could patch up any holes that do show up before then.

Honestly I think they are in one of the better positions. Their postseason track record is good, and frankly they've proven hard to nail down.

If Willis has a good whole year, Beckett doesn't do stints on the DL with blisters on his middle finger, Burnett can come back strong, Pavano is at least solid... well they have a potential three or four good starters.

Counting them out? No. That'd be dumb. After all their roster did not take the hit it did when they won the Series the first time.

With the Braves bleeding in the water any team could really sieze on the opportunity. Maybe the best word to describe the N.L East is a Melee. While they can influence it, the Mets and Expos may not be able to take it. Still, the chips could fall in so many ways.

I'd like to see the Marlins make it again.
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#18 Posted on 27.2.04 0753.10
Reposted on: 27.2.11 0754.29
    Originally posted by Doc_whiskey
    NL Central:
    (4) Brewers (79-83)-This team is going to surprise people, they are young, and as long as they dont dump players, they will be competitive


Rumor has it (Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel) that Geoff Jenkins is gone...unless he gets hurt again first. And Scott Posednik's already hitting .292 over the past week...I wouldn't put it past the Selig cartel to trade him for cash before the All-Star tie...er, break.

Oh, and the soap opera that is Brewers management continues...the Selig family now denies an HBO report that they drew $2 million in salaries while they had their hat in hand looking for funds to build Miller Park. (ESPN.com)

Anybody wanna buy a used almost-major league baseball team? Comes with a real nice ballpark...it's got bratwurst!

Anyone...anybody...Bueller...Bueller...
Retrovertigo
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#19 Posted on 27.2.04 1137.52
Reposted on: 27.2.11 1138.33
NL Central

1. Houston (93-69). I'm taking them over the Cubs for the same reason Doc_Whiskey did. I don't think the team has a chance at winning 100 games, though. The lineup is better than Chicago's, but still too erratic.

2. Chicago (90-72). This might change if the club adds some left-handed thump, but I don't see that happening. If nothing else, Houston's excellent righty relievers will make Dusty pay for stacking all those right-handed bats.

3. St. Louis (86-76). The best lineup in all of MLB, but one of the shakiest pitching staffs. They'll stay in the hunt thanks to the offense, but like last year, the pitching will ultimately let them down.

4. Milwaukee (78-84). Assuming Bud doesn't strip them of the few remaining veteran leaders who can still help on the field and in the clubhouse, this young team will be surprisingly decent.

5. Pittsburgh (71-91). Some good pitching and the most underrated manager in the NL will be enough to keep them out of the cellar.

6. Cincinnati (66-96). It pains me to say this, having lived in the Cincy area all my life, but the Reds will be just plain awful this year. The deservedly hyped bullpen is gone, Griffey and Kearns will again miss most of the season with some new injuries, Dunn will strike out 300 times, the rotation is a joke, and the defense will still be the worst in the majors. My projected win total for them is probably way too generous.

NL West

1. San Francisco (95-67). Good starters and baseball's answer to Scott Steiner will be enough.

2. Arizona (84-78). The starting pitching is way too shaky now. Give them another year, though, to let some prospects develop, and this team could again be pretty terrifying.

3. San Diego (83-79). Vastly improved, and will only get better as the young players mature, but not quite there yet.

4. Los Angeles (81-81). Excellent pitching, despite Jeff Weaver, but again NO offense.

5. Colorado (70-92). Beyond Helton and Wilson, there's no one really exceptional on offense (Larry Walker was the stuff for a long time, but he's really starting to show his age and the effects of his injuries), and they don't have the right kind of pitchers to succeed in their home park.

NL East

1. Philadelphia (101-61). The rotation is even better than it looks on paper, they landed the best closer in baseball over the offseason, and the offense is frightening, especially if Burrell rebounds.

2. Florida (91-71). Despite the losses, the pitching staff is so good and the remaining offensive players so scrappy that they'll sneak into another wild card.

3. Atlanta. (85-77). The dynasty has officially fallen. Too many question marks on the pitching staff, but the offense will keep them above .500.

4. Montreal (73-89). Frank Robinson will keep them playing hard, and the constant salary dumps keep them pretty well-stocked in quality prospects, but the losses of Vlad and Vasquez are just too much.

5. New York (65-97). They'll be better in time and they made some moves that will pay off soon, but this year is definitely gonna be brutal in Flushing.
spf
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#20 Posted on 27.2.04 1314.24
Reposted on: 27.2.11 1315.34
    Originally posted by estragand
    My NL pennant prediction is the same one I've made for the last 20+ years: Pirates. Yeah, yeah... like YOU picked the Marlins last year :)


Why yes, actually I did pick the Marlins last year...sort of (The W)
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