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Grimis
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#1 Posted on 31.12.03 0824.05
Reposted on: 31.12.10 0825.15
Just a list of my own policy/world affairs predictions for 2004.

1. Howard Dean wins the nomination; Gephardt charges late to make it a contest for a while. Dean picks Bob Graham as his running mate.

2. France whines about the need for the US to adhere to multilateral agreements, while breaking their multilateral EU agreements because they are in France's "best interest"

3. The GOP picks up Senate seats in North Carolia, South Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas and Maryland(!). Democrats pick up Illinois and Alaska, and hold on to Florida and Louisiana. Net GOP gain of 3.

4. A movement to repeal BCRA will gain ground

5. OBL will be captured

6. Bush routs Dean in the general election, 400-138
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DrDirt
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#2 Posted on 31.12.03 0835.18
Reposted on: 31.12.10 0836.29
1. I agree except that Gephardt won't make that much of a charge. Graham? I would pick from the midwest.

2. nothing new there.

3. Probably.

4. ?

5. I hope so but doubt it. I really think he may be dead.

6. Only if the economic recovery picks up steam and people percieve real progress in Iraq. A major terrorist attack in the US or on us in general will help Bush. I don't think this is a runaway, but "W" will likely win.
AWArulz
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#3 Posted on 31.12.03 1243.53
Reposted on: 31.12.10 1248.34
    Originally posted by DrDirt
    1. I agree except that Gephardt won't make that much of a charge. Graham? I would pick from the midwest.

    2. nothing new there.

    3. Probably.

    4. ?

    5. I hope so but doubt it. I really think he may be dead.

    6. Only if the economic recovery picks up steam and people percieve real progress in Iraq. A major terrorist attack in the US or on us in general will help Bush. I don't think this is a runaway, but "W" will likely win.


BCRA - Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 - restricts free speech by limiting campaign ads by private citizens, among other things.

I'd agree with the majority of Grimis' predictions. Bush is gonna Maul Dean. I bet he take poor Evan Bayh as his running mate though. Another decent Indiana boy tossed to the wolves.
JoshMann
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#4 Posted on 31.12.03 1308.03
Reposted on: 31.12.10 1308.05
    Originally posted by DrDirt
    Graham? I would pick from the midwest.


He'd pick Graham for one reason and one reason only...it greatly increases his chances of winning Florida. Graham's always had very popular standing over the years both as Gov and a Senator, considering the money President Bush is going to have to play with just from the Florida Republicans alone, Dean's going to need an equalizer in Florida to have a hope in hell of winning in November.

The heart of the midwest is a foregone conclusion I'd think. And just like EVERY election really, this one gets won or lost in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Florida.
Big Bad
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#5 Posted on 31.12.03 1417.41
Reposted on: 31.12.10 1419.19
My prediction? Toronto wins the World Series.

In terms of U.S. politics, however......Dean wins the nomination, despite a convention rumour of Hillary suddenly throwing her hat into the ring, which totally steals Dean's thunder. Dean ends up naming either Graham or Wes Clark as his running mate. During a debate in October, both candidiates look equally stupid as Bush turns a question about national defense into a commplaint about the Rangers' bad pitching staff, and Dean gets so enraged that he earns himself the nickname of 'the Hulk' by the media and a memorable SNL sketch.

I really dislike Bush, but if he has to win, I hope he wins in a 'Dean takes the popular vote but loses the election' scenario. I know that Bush is likely to win by a much healthier margin, but it'd just be fun to see every Democrat's head explode.

DrDirt
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#6 Posted on 31.12.03 1725.41
Reposted on: 31.12.10 1726.59
    Originally posted by AWArulz
      Originally posted by DrDirt
      1. I agree except that Gephardt won't make that much of a charge. Graham? I would pick from the midwest.

      2. nothing new there.

      3. Probably.

      4. ?

      5. I hope so but doubt it. I really think he may be dead.

      6. Only if the economic recovery picks up steam and people percieve real progress in Iraq. A major terrorist attack in the US or on us in general will help Bush. I don't think this is a runaway, but "W" will likely win.


    BCRA - Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 - restricts free speech by limiting campaign ads by private citizens, among other things.

    I'd agree with the majority of Grimis' predictions. Bush is gonna Maul Dean. I bet he take poor Evan Bayh as his running mate though. Another decent Indiana boy tossed to the wolves.


AWA, I knew what it was I just didn't know. Also I don't think "W" wins in a runaway. There is just too much time. Dean could implode or not even win the nomination and "W" could stumble badly also. Ask me in October. This is worse than picking NFL game winners. Remember when he started Dean was a nobody as Clinton really was. Remember that Clinton wasn't going to win either. The key to me is how energized Dean's base will be and how committed or scared of Dean Bush's conservative base is. Should be interesting.
MoeGates
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#7 Posted on 31.12.03 1729.03
Reposted on: 31.12.10 1730.12
1. Clark is the one who stays in and charges late ("late" being a relative term the way primaries go these days). Dean wins and fires Terry McAuliffe. Veep is Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold. Russ, being the man of integrity he is, makes the idiot decision not to run for his Senate seat also, leaving Tommy Thompson to pick it up easily for the GOP.

2. Whatever

3. Strike Arkansas and Maryland (Jesus Grim, Erlich beating that idiot KKT does not a GOP state make) from the list, and add the aforementioned Wisconsin. Martin O'Malley kicks Erlich's ass in 2006 by the way.

4. Not a chance

5. Even less of a chance

6. Despite an anemic economy, Dean loses 54-45-1 (I don't want to go calculate the electoral votes), mostly due to his stances on Iraq. However, in two pieces of good news, voting% is up for the first time in recent memory, and Dean/Feingold pull a Goldwater in 64, reinvigorating the party and purging the Clinton establishment. This, demographic changes, the fiscal crisis brought on by radical GOP economics, and the inevitable backlash against people who have held too much power for too long, ensure Democratic dominence in American politics by 2010.

7. Philly become the new cool town, replacing Brooklyn, which has held the title for way too long.

(edited by MoeGates on 31.12.03 1835)
AWArulz
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#8 Posted on 31.12.03 1746.18
Reposted on: 31.12.10 1746.25
    Originally posted by Big Bad
    I know that Bush is likely to win by a much healthier margin, but it'd just be fun to see every Democrat's head explode.




I'd take that too. I kind of enjoy the continued "Gore won" bleating by the Democrats. Makes me proud.
redsoxnation
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#9 Posted on 31.12.03 2126.22
Reposted on: 31.12.10 2127.49
1) I'll go against the grain, and state Gephardt wins the Democratic nomination. (fake)Dean is ready to implode, and once he gets outside of the northeast I think his support is weak. Also, never underestimate the union vote in Democratic primaries. And, if Wes Clark is VP for the Democrats, he could give us an Admiral Stockdale moment.

2) I say they surrender to Tunisia and sacrafice 2/3 of their country. If only they had let the Comte de Chambord take over in 1873 (damn dissertation flashback).

3) Net gain of 3 is greedy this early. I'll go with +2 GOP.

4) Who knows.

5) Hopefully. And, hopefully my idea of the UBL Execution PPV occurs.

6) If Gephardt's the nominee against Bush in a 2 man race, it'll be extremely close. I think Bush wins, but it might be in the 290-249 range. Now, if (fake)Dean gets the nomination, I think Bush could virtually run the table and get 500 electoral votes.

Bonus Prediction:

North Korea or Pakistan launch a nuke at some point.
Grimis
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#10 Posted on 1.1.04 1030.16
Reposted on: 1.1.11 1030.22
    Originally posted by MoeGates
    (Jesus Grim, Erlich beating that idiot KKT does not a GOP state make) from the list, and add the aforementioned Wisconsin. Martin O'Malley kicks Erlich's ass in 2006 by the way.
O'Malley won't win the Democratic nomination. All of the power is shifting towards DC and Doug Duncan will probably win. Plus, O'Malley may get brought down by the federal investigation of his former police chief(who Ehrlich did, in fact, appoint to be state police chief, but the investigation is from Norris' time in Baltimore)

Incidentally, we have a chance to beat Mikulski; she's abrasive an EJ Pipkin's numbers are better than Ehrlich's were at the same time in late 2001/early 2002.
OlFuzzyBastard
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#11 Posted on 1.1.04 1627.19
Reposted on: 1.1.11 1628.48
    Originally posted by Big Bad
    I really dislike Bush, but if he has to win, I hope he wins in a 'Dean takes the popular vote but loses the election' scenario. I know that Bush is likely to win by a much healthier margin, but it'd just be fun to see every Democrat's head explode.




See, what I'd like to see is Bush win the popular vote, but Dean beat him in the electoral college. I'd love to sit around watching Faux News and listen to Rush (and visit this board) to hear why *this time* the results were horribly unfair and Dubya should be considered the winner. I'm a fan of irony.
Downtown Bookie
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#12 Posted on 1.1.04 1822.27
Reposted on: 1.1.11 1822.27
My predictions for 2004:

1) There will be continued unrest in the Middle East.

2) There will be a proposed peace plan for the Middle East that all parties will agree to.

3) All parties in the Middle East will perform acts in direct opposition to the proposed peace plan that they had previously agreed to.

4) There will be continued unrest in the Middle East.

5) The United States Government will lower the national threat level from a "High" to an "Elevated" risk of terrorist attack - or as is more commonly known, from Code Orange to Code Yellow.

6) The United States Government will raise the national threat level from an "Elevated" to a "High" risk of terrorist attack - or as is more commonly known, from Code Yellow to Code Orange.

7) The United States Government will lower the national threat level from a "High" to an "Elevated" risk of terrorist attack - or as is more commonly known, from Code Orange to Code Yellow.

8) The United States Government will raise the national threat level from an "Elevated" to a "High" risk of terrorist attack - or as is more commonly known, from Code Yellow to Code Orange.

9) Regardless of who gets the Democratic nomination for President, the central figures at the Democratic National Convention will be Bill and Hillary Clinton.

10) The main question to be decided at the Republican National Convention will be whether or not Dick Cheney's health will allow him to accept the party's nomination for four more years as Vice-President.

12) The second question to be decided by delegates at the Republican National Convention will be whether to have the chicken or the veal.

13) Members of the Republican Party will verbally attack members of the Democratic Party.

14) Members of the Democratic Party will verbally attack members of the Republican Party.

15) Everyone will ignore members of the Libertarian Party.

16) Both voters and politicians will complain about the influence of special interest groups on U.S. politics.

17) The French government will do something that will anger 82.3% of all U.S. citizens.

18) In sports, baseball fans will complain that the New York Yankees have an unfair advantage over all other teams. This despite the fact that The Yankees will for the fourth year in a row fail in their attempt to be World Champions.

19) Triple H will retain at WrestleMania XX.
It's False
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#13 Posted on 2.1.04 0416.29
Reposted on: 2.1.11 0416.30
    Originally posted by Grimis
    1. Howard Dean wins the nomination; Gephardt charges late to make it a contest for a while. Dean picks Bob Graham as his running mate.

    6. Bush routs Dean in the general election, 400-138


Dean stands no chance against Bush. I wish people would see that.

But if by some anomoly, Wesley Clark gets the Democratic nod, then we could have a VERY interesting election from what the polls indicate.
The Atomic Tomato
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#14 Posted on 2.1.04 0439.43
Reposted on: 2.1.11 0440.50
    Originally posted by Big Bad
    My prediction? Toronto wins the World Series.


You may be kidding, but I think they have a real shot. Do I think they'll do it...no, but they're definately my dark horse pick in 2004 if I had money to bet.

Laugh now, but around May of 2003, I said the same thing about the Marlins in a conversation with my father.
MoeGates
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#15 Posted on 2.1.04 2006.02
Reposted on: 2.1.11 2006.30
    Originally posted by It's False
      Originally posted by Grimis
      1. Howard Dean wins the nomination; Gephardt charges late to make it a contest for a while. Dean picks Bob Graham as his running mate.

      6. Bush routs Dean in the general election, 400-138


    Dean stands no chance against Bush. I wish people would see that.

    But if by some anomoly, Wesley Clark gets the Democratic nod, then we could have a VERY interesting election from what the polls indicate.


Everybody does see that. Unfortunately, nobody has a shot against Jr., so the next best thing to do is nominate someone that can help set the groundwork for a more progressive direction for the party and the country in the future. The Clinton era destroyed both the ideological and the structural foundation of the Democratic party. We need someone who can make an unequivical break from that, and start the process of rebuilding the party on both a structural and ideological level. Really, the best case scenario for the Dems in Goldwater 64. The worst case scenario is, of course McGovern 72.

Of course, I also wouldn't be a bit surprised if Dean made like McGovern 72, and then Bush made like Nixon 74. GOP control of both houses of Congress (and Democrats having no balls) is the only thing keeping the Bush White House out of that kind of trouble at this point.

Bush will easily win re-election and have a disaterous second term, handing BOTH houses of congress to the Dems in 2006. You heard it here first.
redsoxnation
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#16 Posted on 2.1.04 2053.11
Reposted on: 2.1.11 2053.45
Goldwater in '64 reinvigorating the Republican Party is slightly overrated (in the short term). The key for the Republicans was the Democratic Party splitting along sectional lines after the '64 election, the chaotic/tragic/comical Democratic infighting for the nomination in '68, and Wallace being a wedge in the Southern states in the general election. Even with the Goldwater movement, it was still 18 years until the Republicans took the Senate (only to lose it in 4), and 30 years until they took the House and Senate. And it was the man who was defeated in '60 who won in '68, so a sharp movement away didn't occur until Reagan in '80.

(edited by redsoxnation on 2.1.04 2157)
godking
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#17 Posted on 3.1.04 0359.34
Reposted on: 3.1.11 0403.59
Dean stands no chance against Bush. I wish people would see that.

Bush's "versus" polls against Dean currently have him leading by a small 51-46 - this before Dean wins the nomination. The "Bush will get 500 electoral votes if he goes against Dean" people are all smoking crack - it's going to be another election with twenty electoral votes' difference between the two candidates, not a rout.

For the record, I think Dean (who will almost certainly be the nominee - if not him, Clark, but every day I grow more certain that it's Dean) will probably lose the election, but it'll be a squeaker.
Grimis
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#18 Posted on 3.1.04 0942.41
Reposted on: 3.1.11 0943.46
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    And it was the man who was defeated in '60 who won in '68, so a sharp movement away didn't occur until Reagan in '80.
This is true to a point, but Nixon did run as more of a conservative in '68 than he did in '60. Nixon had embraced the Goldwater/Reagan wing of the party in an effort to get the nomination, a move to the right that he actually started late in the Goldwater campaign.

Goldwater is very important in the history of the GOP. Dean, though, is not the guy to start this change for the Dems.
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