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godking
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#1 Posted on 6.12.03 1244.45
Reposted on: 6.12.10 1246.51
Well, barring a major scandal or upset, Howard Dean is probably going to be the Democratic candidate this year - he's pulling ahead in the polls in Iowa, is way ahead in DC, New Hampshire and Massachusetts, and the only state where he doesn't either have a commanding lead or contending before Super Tuesday is South Carolina, and he's starting to pick up the important endorsements - the leader of the Dem black caucus, the Asian Democratic caucus, the SEIU and AFSCME. More importantly, his recent push to get his supporters to monetarily support the campaign of an embattled Democratic congressman in Iowa (who got sixty thousand dollars as a result of that) has shown the Dem rank and file that Dean is willing to share the money, which could signal a shift in the "establishment" support (the Florida Democratic organization has already made noises about supporting him exclusively).

He's got the grassroots support, he's got the organization, he's got the money, and most importantly he's got the momentum. Note that I am not saying anything about his policies right now, because I want to keep this introductory post neutral - all I'm saying is that Howard Dean is, in all likelihood, your Democratic candidate in 2004.

Thoughts?
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AWArulz
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#2 Posted on 6.12.03 1437.26
Reposted on: 6.12.10 1437.51
    Originally posted by godking
    all I'm saying is that Howard Dean is, in all likelihood, your Democratic candidate in 2004.

    Thoughts?


Makes me happy. Dean's a bit truth challenged, has some anger management issues to deal with, but, along with some apparent delusions.

for more on the last. check this out: http://www.washingtonpost.com/ wp-dyn/articles/A37125- 2003Dec4.html

a small sample:

Diane Rehm: "Why do you think he [Bush] is suppressing that [Sept. 11] report?"

Howard Dean: "I don't know. There are many theories about it. The most interesting theory that I've heard so far -- which is nothing more than a theory, it can't be proved -- is that he was warned ahead of time by the Saudis. Now who knows what the real situation is?"

-- "The Diane Rehm Show," NPR, Dec. 1

It has been 25 years since I discovered a psychiatric syndrome (for the record: "Secondary Mania," Archives of General Psychiatry, November 1978), and in the interim I haven't been looking for new ones. But it's time to don the white coat again. A plague is abroad in the land.

Bush Derangement Syndrome: the acute onset of paranoia in otherwise normal people in reaction to the policies, the presidency -- nay -- the very existence of George W. Bush. Now, I cannot testify to Howard Dean's sanity before this campaign, but five terms as governor by a man with no visible tics and no history of involuntary confinement is pretty good evidence of a normal mental status. When he avers, however, that "the most interesting" theory as to why the president is "suppressing" the Sept. 11 report is that Bush knew about Sept. 11 in advance, it's time to check on thorazine supplies. When Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D-Ga.) first broached this idea before the 2002 primary election, it was considered so nutty it helped make her former representative McKinney. Today the Democratic presidential front-runner professes agnosticism as to whether the president of the United States was tipped off about 9/11 by the Saudis, and it goes unnoticed. The virus is spreading.

Jaguar
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#3 Posted on 6.12.03 1452.07
Reposted on: 6.12.10 1452.37
Sheesh, and I thought Krauthammer sounded like a nut when he wrote for time. Are you actually going to tell me that is NOT the most interesting theory regarding the supressed report? Neither quote really says nothing at all, and yet Krauthammer derived a whole article from it. Whoop-de-doo. I'd also like to ask Krauthammer where the hell he was during the 1990's. Apparently he missed the whole, "X-Files, don't trust the government" craze we had there for a decade. Because disbelieving our President is totally new and no one has never question the integrity of the president ever until people started questioning Bush. Krauthammer makes my head want to explode.

As for Dean, he's the best guy out of the field. I hope he does well come November.

-Jag
MoeGates
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#4 Posted on 6.12.03 1538.58
Reposted on: 6.12.10 1539.34
The sooner he gets the nomination, the better, for two reasons:

1) it avoides the special-issues pandering compatition that Democrats love so much. There are so many 1-issue groups out there in the Democratic coalition that sometimes the candidates fall all over each other in the mentality of "this little issue group, plus that one and that one and that one and that one will equal 50.01%." The Democrats have to get away from that kind of thinking, and get a big-picture philosophy articulated. The sooner the nomination's decided the better the chances of this are. I don't even care so much who gets it.

2) The sooner it's inevitable, the more time Dean has to kick the Clinton party infrastruture out. I pretty much hold the Clinton's responsible for detroying the Democratic Party on an institutional, structural level with their top-down, big doner, elitist attitude. Look at how many state houses were controlled by Dems in 1990 as compared to 2000, stuff like that. And plus, there's nothing really to show for it. If they had sacrificed some of this to get new ideas out there and try to move the party or nation to the left, that's one thing - but the exact opposite happened. To destroy your party on both a structural and moral/intellectual level at the same goddamn time is unforgivable.

Dean's got a short period of momentum where he can start to reverse this damage. THe GOP isn't scared of Dean because they think he's going to win (as I said before, I don't think any Dem has a hope of beating Jr.), they're scared of him because of his small-donation fund raising. If he can get the party structure back into the small hard cash, grassroots GOTV structure during the time he has as the leader of the party, the Dems can be a competative party again. If he doesn't get a chance to fire Terry McAwful, and the Democratic party stayes with the big corporate doner - Celebrity-fucker fund-raising stratagy they have been going with, I expect the Dems to look in worse shape than the GOP of the mid-70s.
Grimis
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#5 Posted on 7.12.03 1956.17
Reposted on: 7.12.10 1956.45
Dean is the likely nominee, but remember he is behind in many Southern states. Also remember this: expecations kill. If Dean doesn't win New Hampshire by 25 points, he's going to be in trouble because he's expected to win by 25. If he doesn't, people will start to question what's wrong and it could be fatal. At the very least, not meeting expectations could turn him into Mondale when he lost NH to Gary Hart. A prolonged, deadly process that rips the party apart and filets the nominee for the general election.
DrDirt
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#6 Posted on 7.12.03 2115.21
Reposted on: 7.12.10 2116.29
    Originally posted by Grimis
    Dean is the likely nominee, but remember he is behind in many Southern states. Also remember this: expecations kill. If Dean doesn't win New Hampshire by 25 points, he's going to be in trouble because he's expected to win by 25. If he doesn't, people will start to question what's wrong and it could be fatal. At the very least, not meeting expectations could turn him into Mondale when he lost NH to Gary Hart. A prolonged, deadly process that rips the party apart and filets the nominee for the general election.


Grimis is dead on. The worst thing to happen this early is high expectations that Dean or anyone can't meet. Gephardt likely has some tricks up his sleeve. Dean is in the drivers seat, sort of, but not the presumptive winner. To be honest, if "W" starts looking vulnerable, then I see Hillary rearing her head.
vsp
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#7 Posted on 9.12.03 0927.15
Reposted on: 9.12.10 0928.03
    Originally posted by Grimis
    Dean is the likely nominee, but remember he is behind in many Southern states.


Well, yeah. He's a Democrat.
Grimis
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#8 Posted on 9.12.03 0939.19
Reposted on: 9.12.10 0939.23
    Originally posted by vsp
      Originally posted by Grimis
      Dean is the likely nominee, but remember he is behind in many Southern states.


    Well, yeah. He's a Democrat.
Sorry, I meant in the Demo primaries.
spf
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#9 Posted on 9.12.03 0956.55
Reposted on: 9.12.10 0959.03
Agreed that he's behind in some of the Southern states, but right now the important thing is that pretty much everywhere that Dean has set down any sort of campaign apparatus he has moved to the front of the pack in that state. There's nowhere that he's actively campaigning that he is in any sort of serious deficit situation which I see as the most telling sign of strength for a campaign.

I do agree though that the best thing for Dean right now would be to try and either dampen expectations so that a 20 point win in NH doesn't feel like a letdown. Or else he needs to try and start driving some people out by leaning on their money people. If a couple candidates were to drop out and support Dean there could be enough of a sense of inevitability as to cripple whomever is left out there.
DrDirt
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#10 Posted on 9.12.03 1051.42
Reposted on: 9.12.10 1053.52
    Originally posted by spf2119
    Agreed that he's behind in some of the Southern states, but right now the important thing is that pretty much everywhere that Dean has set down any sort of campaign apparatus he has moved to the front of the pack in that state. There's nowhere that he's actively campaigning that he is in any sort of serious deficit situation which I see as the most telling sign of strength for a campaign.

    I do agree though that the best thing for Dean right now would be to try and either dampen expectations so that a 20 point win in NH doesn't feel like a letdown. Or else he needs to try and start driving some people out by leaning on their money people. If a couple candidates were to drop out and support Dean there could be enough of a sense of inevitability as to cripple whomever is left out there.


I think the money people of some of the candidtes are about to pull the bucket out of the well anyway. The beauty of Dean's campaign, whether real or imagined, is his grass roots apparatus. That and seeking alot of smaller contributions. He has done an effective job coming off as a man of the people. With his politics though I don't think he can do any more than look respectable in many Southern states. His smartest move though was opting out of the federal matching money system. He can bury any opposition as long as the money keeps flowing and the stronger he looks, the more it will flow.
spf
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#11 Posted on 9.12.03 1127.39
Reposted on: 9.12.10 1127.50
I think Dean will do well in the Southern states simply because it's going to become a tidal wave if he can win the first few states. As more and more people decide they want to ride with the winner, he'll get the local support that really drives the southern primaries, particularly in the African-American communities (which is the power base in southern Democratic electoral politics).
Lexus
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#12 Posted on 11.12.03 0240.52
Reposted on: 11.12.10 0244.09


I was gonna vote for Kucinich
DrDirt
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#13 Posted on 11.12.03 0839.04
Reposted on: 11.12.10 0846.03
    Originally posted by spf2119
    I think Dean will do well in the Southern states simply because it's going to become a tidal wave if he can win the first few states. As more and more people decide they want to ride with the winner, he'll get the local support that really drives the southern primaries, particularly in the African-American communities (which is the power base in southern Democratic electoral politics).


Spf, is it that or will the suporters of other candidates simply not vote because it won't make any difference? The trouble with the African-American community is that many times they don't vote. If they were politically energized, the Reps wouldn't have a stranglehold on the deep south nationally.
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