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The 7 - Random - Survivor VII: Mid-season report
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Big Bad
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#1 Posted on 15.11.03 1418.01
Reposted on: 15.11.10 1419.40
Since 8 of the original 16 have been eliminated, we're officially halfway through the latest Survivor season (well, preventing any more crappy 'losers get to return' scenario).

I'm kind of mixed about this season, since for the first time ever, I'm so emotionally involved in one character (Rupert) that when/if he's eliminated, everything else will seem like a letdown.

Chances to win...
* Rupert= He basically has to win every immunity from here on in, since he's clearly been targeted by the others as the dominant player. His alliance with Sandra and Christa is a bit tenuous, though I'd argue that they should stick with him for a few more weeks because Rupert has shown that he carries a mother of a grudge. If they stab him in the back and then one of them makes the final two, Rupert wouldn't vote for either of them if their lives depended on it.

* Sandra = As long as she doesn't have the aforementioned 'piss off Rupert' plan in effect, I think she's in great shape. She's managed to stay relatively under the radar, though people have caught on that she/Christia/Rupert are the power trio. My pick to win.

* Christa = The same boat as Sandra, though she's gotten several votes against her already. I dunno why people don't like her, unless they hate nasal voices.

* Tijuana = If the former Drake tribe keeps up their 'vote off the Morgans' plan, she's toast no matter what she tries to do. She seems to have a brain on her, however, so her best bet is to try and get with Darrah, Jon and the Outcasts (which seems to be previewed for the next episode, though Survivor promos are always faulty).

* Darrah = Ditto to Tijuana, except replace the part about 'having a brain' with 'coasting along.' Bonus points for having the thickest Southern accent ever.

* Jon = If Vince Russo were ever on Survivor, here's what it would look like. One of the biggest asswipes to ever appear on the program, and also one of the funniest. The non-stop wrestling reference are funny to me, at least. Also bonus points to the fact that Jeff Probst genuinely seems to hate the guy. Jon's hard to predict for, since he is always on the verge on changing sides. This kind of slipperiness makes him hated in the tribe, but also oddly invaluable, since he can always be coerced into voting someone else out to save his own skin. Look at Rob from the last series...he backstabbed people every week, and still finished in third place. I see Jon finishing strong, though ultimately not winning because everyone thinks he's a prick.

* Burton = And now we come to the Outcasts. I genuinely don't think that either have a chance to win, just because the remaining Survivors have a grudge against these two being given a second chance. Burton is in especially bad shape, since he's also targeted as an immunity threat. Burton will likely become the first Survivor to be voted out of the game twice....

* Lillian = ...and Lil will be the second, since she'll be around longer due to her apparent willingness to team with anyone that gives her the time of day. Lillian seems like one of these misguided 'I'm on Survivor to make friends and not lie' kind of people who usually get brought into an alliance and then discarded when it's convenient.
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Freeway
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#2 Posted on 15.11.03 1619.32
Reposted on: 15.11.10 1620.03
Well, the hype for next episode promises "a mutiny"...but they'd hype up the episode that Rupert'd get voted off as the must-see, and they haven't for this season...so, I think he's safe.

Also, Rupert is involved in the All-Star Edition, so smart money says he either wins or gets damned close to doing so.

I say Rupert goes on a tear, Final Four being him, Christa, Sandra & Jon. Jon will go with whoever wants him around, and Christa/Rupert/Sandra will probably be the Final 3 barring anything wacky happening. I say it's Morgans-Go-Home for another couple weeks (with Christa & Sandra waiting until the Morgans are gone before turning on Rupe) with Tijuana, Darrah & Lillian going home, along with Burton getting tossed in there somehow because the trio would view him as more of a threat than Jon.

Of the proposed Final Four, I'd say Rupert has the best chance of winning...but only if he wins the Immunity. Anybody going to the finals with Jon would look like GOLD. GOLD, baby.
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#3 Posted on 15.11.03 1623.52
Reposted on: 15.11.10 1623.53

    Also, Rupert is involved in the All-Star Edition, so smart money says he either wins or gets damned close to doing so.


I wouldn't necessarily agree with this; some of the All-Stars (i.e. Rob Mariano, Shii Ann) didn't even make the jury, let alone win. Rupert was no doubt selected because he was such an amazing character.

Bullitt
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#4 Posted on 15.11.03 1858.13
Reposted on: 15.11.10 1858.22
Word in the spoiler community is that Darrah has been "underground" since the show started, fueling speculation that she's at least in the Final 2.



DrewDewce
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#5 Posted on 15.11.03 1909.42
Reposted on: 15.11.10 1909.43
I got Rupert in the pool at work and was so pissed before the show started. I mean, to look at the guy without really knowing anything, I thought burned-out-junkie. He immediately won me over in the season premiere when he stole the other team's stuff to trade for essentials.

Even the other people in the pool are rooting for Rupert to win now, which means I (and he) are screwed.
scabby
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#6 Posted on 15.11.03 2138.20
Reposted on: 15.11.10 2138.34
    Originally posted by Big Bad

      Also, Rupert is involved in the All-Star Edition, so smart money says he either wins or gets damned close to doing so.


    I wouldn't necessarily agree with this; some of the All-Stars (i.e. Rob Mariano, Shii Ann) didn't even make the jury, let alone win. Rupert was no doubt selected because he was such an amazing character.




Not to mention the publicity an early Rupert boot may give the All Star edition. Rupert, according to CBS.com polls anyways, is the most popular Survivor in the show's history. They're filming All Star Survivor right now, so when Rupert fails to show up for the regular media appearances (Early Show, Letterman), don't be surprised if you hear something along the lines of "If you want to see more Rupert, be sure to tune into CBS this February".

Uses the Seinfeld "always leave them wanting more" theory, anyways.

If Sandra and Christa had half a brain between them, they'd be trying to get rid of Burton WAY before even thinking about getting rid of Rupert. Rupert seems exceptionally loyal to them and I would say that he and Burton are both equal immunity threats. Why they would seemingly plot against Rupert so early into the merge is beyond me, especially considering that they'd probably have to trust Jon to make it happen.

From the previews, it looks like a Jon/Burton/Lil/Darrah/Tijuana alliance is formed to oust Rupert. Other than Jonny Fairplay, what a boring damned final 5 THAT would be.

Oh, and jury or no jury, The Robfather HAD to be brought back......if he's an early All Star boot, I'll be super pissed.


(edited by scabby on 15.11.03 1939)

(edited by scabby on 15.11.03 1941)

(edited by scabby on 15.11.03 1950)
Big Bad
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#7 Posted on 16.11.03 0027.16
Reposted on: 16.11.10 0027.41
Bullitt, if you could warn us about spoilers before posting them, that's be greatly appreciated.

The greatest thing that Rupert has going for him now is the fact that he catches a shitload of fish. Sandra/Christa might want to hang onto him for a while long, since once Rupert goes, their food supply drops 90% over the next two weeks. This might be even greater incentive to the former Morgan tribe, since after starving for so long, they're going to be wary of returning to a steady diet of rice after dining like relative kings since the merge.

Rupert's other main skill is the fact that he might very well be the first Survivor since Colby in S2 that literally could win EVERY challenge. He appears to have no weaknesses, aside from possibly speed, but he's moved quickly enough from what we've seen before.
Bullitt
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#8 Posted on 16.11.03 0328.22
Reposted on: 16.11.10 0329.01
Sorry, Big Bad. Darrah's appearance in the Final 2 is not a concrete spoiler, mostly hearsay...but I will be more careful in the future.
Freeway
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#9 Posted on 16.11.03 1616.35
Reposted on: 16.11.10 1617.59
I agree with the idea that Rupert has better skills than everyone, maybe even Jesus Christ. I mean, he's fast, smart, agile...and he has a bitchin' beard.

It looks like Rupert/Christa/Sandra will vote together, as will Lill/Burton, as will Darrah/Tijuana. Now, as long as Rupert wins immunity next episode (and one of Burton, Jon, Darrah & Tijuana go home), he's sitting pretty. If I were Christa or Sandra, I'd coast along with Rupert until the Final 4 (or 3), because then they have voting leverage and all they gotta do is stop him from winning immunity in the usual "stand around holding something for six hours" challenge.

It'll be a tough two weeks for Rupert, but I'm hoping he can pull it out.

SPOILERS AHOY!:

Spoiler Below: Highlight text to read

SurvivorFever.net reports that the next two episode titles {#9 & #10) are "Swimming With Sharks" and "The Great Lie" respectively. What the hell does this mean? I DON'T KNOW!


(edited by Freeway420 on 16.11.03 1517)
scabby
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#10 Posted on 16.11.03 1920.30
Reposted on: 16.11.10 1921.17
In response to Freeway420's query:

Jeff Probst was quoted during pre-show interviews saying that "the greatest lie ever told on Survivor" is told this season. Apparently, Mark Burnett and Probst didn't even realize there was a lie until post show editing and evidently, none of the castaways will know there was a lie told until they watch the show themselves.

For the sake of not spoiling, I won't reveal who allegedly tells the lie.
dunkndollaz
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#11 Posted on 17.11.03 0722.33
Reposted on: 17.11.10 0723.38
Rupert almost has to pull a "Colby" to get to the Final 2 but then Burnett has tossed out so many red herrings in promos throughout the 7 editions that I don't even pay attention anymore.....And can you imagine the look on Rupert's face during that first tribal council he sits in on as a jury member ? Cold Death and Hot Fury
StaggerLee
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#12 Posted on 17.11.03 0739.56
Reposted on: 17.11.10 0744.02
Sandra wins. Just my opinion though.
Big Bad
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#13 Posted on 20.11.03 2323.05
Reposted on: 20.11.10 2324.38
NOOOOOOOOOOOO, not Rupert!
Freeway
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#14 Posted on 20.11.03 2346.26
Reposted on: 20.11.10 2347.44
FREEWAY420's UNOFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL ODDS TO WIN:
All listed with name, age, odds & reasoning:
Sandra [29; 8-1] Too shrill & bitchy to the others to remain around, plus she's not much of an immunity threat, so she'd be easy to bump off.
Jon [29; 6-1] Everyone hated him before, but kept him around to get rid of more prevalent threats. Now...who's let for the men? Burton and Johnny Fairplay.
Christa [24; 7-1] Less bitchy than Sandra, but she still ain't too popular with the others.
Burton [31; 4-1] He's that damned good...too good. It's obvious that he's the Alpha Male now, and if any of the womenfolk wanna win things, they'll have to bump him off the first chance they get.
Lillian [51; 8-1] WHY: She's nice...too nice. Her conscience will get her into trouble, and the fact that she's older than all the other Survivor winners
Darrah [22; 5-1] She doesn't do much...but maybe she's just laying low?
Tijuana [27; 4-1] Under the radar?
For reference, Survivor winners & runners up (with ages during show):
Survivor: Richard Hatch [39, W] & Kelly Wiglesworth [23]
Survivor II: Tina Wesson [40, W] & Colby Donaldson [26]
Survivor III: Ethan Zohn [27, W] & Kim Johnson [57]
Survivor IV: Vecepia Towery [36, W] & Neleh Dennis [21]
Survivor V: Brian Heidek [34, W] & Clay Jordan [46]
Survivor VI: Jenna Morasca [21, W] & Matthew Von Ertfelda [33]

Predicted Final Four: Darrah, Tijuana, Burton (he'll survive) & Jon
Torchslasher
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#15 Posted on 21.11.03 0007.24
Reposted on: 21.11.10 0009.19
Now, I fell in as much platonic love with Rupert as the next guy, but I was actually cheering when he was ousted tonight. He won almost every immunity challenge. He took care of the tribe with his skills in catching fish. He became a big target.

This vote just made the show that much more interesting. I want to see how the tribe survives without Rupert. I want to see whether Sandra is next on the block after the power shift. I feel for Rupert of course (except for his overdramatic ending speech), but it's going to be a lot more fun now. Kudos to Jon for bringing more wrestling catchphrases to the game...it reminds me to finish watching the Flair DVD.

Oh, I have a quick question for Scabby. Was Lil's lie to Rupert tonight the BIG LIE you alluded to?
whatever
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#16 Posted on 21.11.03 0858.52
Reposted on: 21.11.10 0858.52
Allegedly the big lie is in the next episode, if I read things right. And boy, was my wife upset when Rupe got the boot. Wearing his heart on his sleeve like he does, I completely understand his closing speech, but I think he's got to feel pretty good getting back here and seeing how freakin' popular he is now.

The part with Sandra overhearing Burton & Jon was priceless. That said, what the heck was up with her first eliminating Rupert from immunity (accident, I know), but *then* writing Jon instead of Darrah?!? If Lil had come through (live with *that* gulit, Lil), then they could've forced a tie. But Sandra's vote would have killed that chance. Amazing.

You think the lie might be about who voted for Jon?
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#17 Posted on 21.11.03 1452.35
Reposted on: 21.11.10 1453.19
As annoying as he is, you gotta love Johnny Fairplay and his constant wrestling references...whoo.


Spoiler Below: Highlight text to read
The "Big Lie" is supposedly tied into the "messages from home" challenge. Word is Jon's message has to do with either a death or illness in the family...a lie in order to gain sympathy from the jury if he makes it to the Final 2. Apparently the lie wasn't discovered until after filming had ended.

If this is the case, it would have to have been planned before Jon even left to start filming Survivor...making it all the more impressive.
scabby
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#18 Posted on 21.11.03 1908.13
Reposted on: 21.11.10 1909.09
    Originally posted by Torchslasher


    Oh, I have a quick question for Scabby. Was Lil's lie to Rupert tonight the BIG LIE you alluded to?


Nah, lies regarding alliances and votes are told every season. Unless Probst was overhyping the lie in the hopes of keeping the livid Rupert Nation interested, it has to be something fairly significant to be called the greatest ever.

That being said, I would have loved to have been able to knock the smirk right off that smarmy little bastard's face after Rupert took the walk.

Jon is the most loathsome castaway since Jerri.

(edited by scabby on 21.11.03 1709)

(edited by scabby on 21.11.03 1711)
Scar
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#19 Posted on 21.11.03 1910.54
Reposted on: 21.11.10 1911.23
    Originally posted by scabby
      Originally posted by Torchslasher


      Oh, I have a quick question for Scabby. Was Lil's lie to Rupert tonight the BIG LIE you alluded to?


    Nah, lies regarding alliances and votes are told every season. Unless Probst was overhyping the lie in the hopes of keeping the livid Rupert Nation interested, it has to be something fairly significant.

    That being said, I would have loved to have been able to knock the smirk right off that smarmy little bastard's face after Rupert took the walk.

    Jon is the most loathsome castaway since Jerri.

    (edited by scabby on 21.11.03 1709)


I don't like Jon either. But, atleast he'd be the first to admit that he's a little prick. So I give him points for that.
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#20 Posted on 23.11.03 2044.09
Reposted on: 23.11.10 2045.36
Jon is my favorite character since Season 2's Lex. I like the schemers.

Supposedly, Jeff Probst HATES Jon with a passion in real life. Can't wait to see why. If Jon pulled off something seriously impressive, then he may just be the greatest character ever. I think he doesn't even care, he just wants the WWF to notice him.

Keep hearing rumor that Darrah wins. I really don't know, but as long as it isn't Lil I can live with it.
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