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The 7 - Football - Homage to JayJayDean, BCS Bowl Projections for Week 12
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Zeruel
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#1 Posted on 12.11.03 0030.03
Reposted on: 12.11.10 0030.11
The Sugar Bowl's tie-in, the SEC is an At-large as it hosts the championship game.
The Orange Bowl can take the ACC or Big East champion, it is not required to take both.
The Fiesta Bowl gets to pick first, they lost the tie-in to the #1 BCS team, the Pac-10 picks second.

Conference Champs (If the season ended today, I am assuming the higher ranked team wins the title games/tie-breakers)

ACC: FSU
Big XII: Oklahoma
Big East: Pittsburgh
Big Ten: Ohio State
Pac-10: USC (both USC and Washington State both have 1-loss, I'm taking USC as they are #2)
SEC: Mississippi

At-large teams:
TCU (CUSA), NON-BCS team ranked in top 6 in BCS, ranked #6
LSU (SEC), Highest ranked non-conference champion, ranked #4. Ohio State is ranked #3, but they are my Big Ten champ.


Note: Below are 4 at-large selections, 1 for the SEC champ, 1 for the ACC/Big East champ (remember, the Orange bowl doesn't have to take both) and the other 2 are TCU and LSU.

Sugar Bowl (BCS #1 vs BCS #2): Oklahoma (Big XII) vs USC (Pac-10)
Orange Bowl (ACC/Big East vs. At-large): FSU vs Mississippi
Rose Bowl (Big Ten vs At-large): Ohio State vs Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl (At-large vs At-large): TCU vs LSU

I went with those selections because of the schools being so close to each other

If you want to get nitpicky and take Washington State over USC as the Pac-10 champ, then LSU doesn't get an at-Large selection(USC becomes the at-large because they are in the top 2) and I'd have:
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs Washington State (keeps the Big Ten vs Pac-10 matchup)
Fiesta Bowl: TCU vs Pittsburgh
Orange and Sugar would remain the same
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Grimis
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#2 Posted on 12.11.03 0653.29
Reposted on: 12.11.10 0656.45
I don't think both LSU and Mississippi go. The only reason I say that is that I doubt Ole Miss wins the SEC title game. Which changes things a little. These projections are based on Georgia as the highest rankes BCS team in teh SEC.

SUGAR: Oklahoma vs USC
ORANGE: Florida State vs Georgia
FIESTA: Pittsburgh vs TCU(CUSA/at-large)
ROSE: Ohio State vs Texas

Of course how about this paradox: if this plays out, one of the top 5 teams gets left our because of TCU.
Quezzy
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#3 Posted on 12.11.03 0807.55
Reposted on: 12.11.10 0808.44
Well i believe hiw bowls picks were based on how everyone stands right now. Ole Miss would be the SEC champ according to record, although we can absolutely say they would be SEC champ if the season ended today because they would still have to win the SEC Championship game. But as first place in the SEC i'm guessing that's why he put Ole Miss in there. And LSU is in the top 6 so they would automatically go to a BCS game.

As for how things shake out. I think Ole Miss does lose to LSU. But I think LSU wins the SEC Championship not Georgia. Also, as it stands Georgia wouldn't even go to the SEC CHampionship game. Tennessee is ranked highest in the BCS. Although with Miss St, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky coming up maybe that knocks them behind Georgia. But I don't think it's a given that Georgia beats Auburn this week. Either way I think LSU wins the SEC and goes to a BCS game. I say it goes like this...

Sugar: Oklahoma vs. USC
Orange: Miami vs. LSU (not positive about Miami though, I think they will win against Pittsburgh but I don't know how they solve the tie breaker)
Fiesta: TCU vs. Texas
Rose: Ohio State vs. Florida State
redsoxnation
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#4 Posted on 12.11.03 0844.10
Reposted on: 12.11.10 0849.36
If you really want to throw a screw-ball into the BCS equation, how is this one: West Virginia beats Pitt, then Pitt beats Miami. West Virginia would then win the Big East and play TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. That might be the least attractive major bowl game ever.
TheCow
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#5 Posted on 12.11.03 1335.09
Reposted on: 12.11.10 1336.36
I don't think TCU will stay in 6 (much like I don't think we'll stay at 7). Someone's going to jump both of us to get into the 6th slot - most likely Michigan, if it beats Ohio St., or Georgia, because they can.

Ole Miss is 18th in the BCS right now; the only way they can go is if they win the SEC championship, pretty much, and they've got to go through LSU to do it. BCSites probably want LSU to win that game, mainly because of the (greater) chaos that would come from them losing.

Quezzy, remember tiebreaker #7: Georgia would go to the SEC Championship game, owning the win over UT (even though they're down in the BCS). What I'm hoping for is UT finishes 6th, Georgia somewhere below us (but within 5 places), loses to LSU / Ole Miss in the chamionship, resulting in a SEC team that didn't even make the championship game going to a BCS bowl.

Ah, the fun.

Sugar: Oklahoma v. USC
Orange: FSU v. Texas
Rose: Michigan v. LSU
Fiesta: Pitt v. Tennessee (via the exception I said above)
Grimis
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#6 Posted on 12.11.03 1428.58
Reposted on: 12.11.10 1429.01
    Originally posted by TheCow
    What I'm hoping for is UT finishes 6th, Georgia somewhere below us (but within 5 places), loses to LSU / Ole Miss in the chamionship, resulting in a SEC team that didn't even make the championship game going to a BCS bowl.
Hey why not, it worked when Nebraska played for a national title.
Zeruel
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#7 Posted on 12.11.03 1534.40
Reposted on: 12.11.10 1534.47
    Originally posted by Grimis
    Of course how about this paradox: if this plays out, one of the top 5 teams gets left our because of TCU.


Well, a team is only an automatic qualifier in the top 6 if they are a non BCS school, but I see your point that they would get leapfrogged like that.

If TCU does get a bowl bid by somehow hanging on (their SOS will go deeper into the shitter in their remaining games, and they need some top teams like tOSU to take key losses) then if Notre Dame got 9 I-A wins, they would get the other at-large bid and then in my projections, LSU would be left out and an unranked ND could get it. One reason I hate ND

Or, if ND couldn't get 9 I-A wins, all they have to do is be in the BCS top 10. The theory is that if a non BCS team gets an automatic BCS bid, then the "Independent" ND gets one too, because they are "better" than all non-BCS and indy teams.

But it is moot, as ND is 3-6.

And yeah, I took the season as it stands today (ala JayJayDean) and then took the schools w/ the higher record to win the title games (Big XII & SEC).

If anyone forgot the BCS rules, http://www.collegebcs.com/bcsfaq.html is a great reference.


EDIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    If you really want to throw a screw-ball into the BCS equation, how is this one: West Virginia beats Pitt, then Pitt beats Miami. West Virginia would then win the Big East and play TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. That might be the least attractive major bowl game ever.


That got me thinking about the Big East tie-breakers (and also about the junk with the SEC Vote that they got rid of)
Currently:
Pittsburgh (4-0) games remaining WV, Temple, Miami
Miami (3-1) Syracuse, Rutgers, Pittsburgh
WV (3-1) Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Temple
VT (3-2) Temple, BC
Syracuse (2-2) Miami, WV, Rutgers

Ok, if:
Pitt loses to WV and Miami, but beat Temple, they are (5-2)
Miami loses to syracuse, but beat rutgers and pitt, they are (5-2)
WV loses to Syracuse, but beat pitt and temple, they are (5-2)
VT beats Temple and BC, they are (5-2)
Syracuse wins out, they are (5-2)

so techinally (don't worry, i don't really see Syracuse winning any more conf games), we have a chance for a 5-way tie. Here are the tiebreakers.

from BigEast.org

# TWO-WAY TIE

1. Team A defeats Team B and is higher ranked - Team A earns bid.
2. Team A defeats Team B and is ranked lower, but in Top 10 - Team A earns bid (except if Team B is ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in either poll, then Team B earns bid.)
3. Team A defeats Team B and is ranked lower, but no less than five positions below Team B - Team A earns bid.
4. Team A defeats Team B and is ranked lower, and more than five positions below Team B - Team B earns bid.
5. If the two teams have the same ranking, or both are unranked, the bid goes to the team that has won the head-to-head contest.

# THREE-WAY TIE

A. "mini-conference" is created amongst the three tied teams.

1. All three teams have either a 6-1 or 5-2 record and have won one and lost one against the other teams tied in the mini-conference.
1. In this case, the highest ranked team amongst the three earns the bid.
2. If two of the three teams have the same ranking, the bid is earned by the team winning the head-to-head matchup.
3. If none of the teams is ranked, the Championship Bowl would select the team of its choice from amongst the tied teams.
2. All three teams have 6-1 or 5-2 records and within the mini-conference, Team A is 2-0, Team B is 1-1, and Team C is 0-2.
1. If Team A is higher ranked than Teams B and C - Team A earns bid.
2. If Team A is not the highest ranked, but is in the Top 10 - Team A earns bid.
3. If Team A is not the highest ranked, but is ranked no lower than five spots below the highest ranked team in the mini-conference - Team A earns bid.
4. If Team A is not the highest ranked, and is ranked more than five spots below the highest ranked team in the mini-conference - Team A is eliminated from consideration. Subsequently,
5. If Team B is higher ranked than Team C - Team B earns bid.
6. If Team B is lower ranked than Team C, but in the Top 10 - Team B earns bid.
7. If Team B is lower ranked than Team C, but is ranked no lower than five spots below Team C - Team B earns bid.
8. If Team B is lower ranked than Team C, but is ranked more than five spots below Team C - Team C earns bid.

# FOUR-WAY TIE

A. "mini-conference" is created amongst the four teams.

1. In the mini-conference, Team A is 3-0, Team B is 2-1, Team C is 1-2, and Team D is 0-3. Team A earns bid, regardless of ranking.
2. In the mini-conference, Teams A and B are 2-1, Teams C and D are 1-2. The higher ranked team of the 2-1 teams earns the bid. If two teams tie for the highest ranking, the bid goes to the team that won the head-to-head match-up.


(edited by rikidozan on 12.11.03 1713)

(edited by rikidozan on 12.11.03 1713)
JayJayDean
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#8 Posted on 12.11.03 2213.14
Reposted on: 12.11.10 2215.32
An homage? To me? Awwwwwwwwwwww...

I find myself rooting for Ole Miss to beat LSU after I watched the fourth quarter of Ole-Miss-Auburn last week. Eli Manning is a stud and anything that gets TCU closer to a BCS birth is OK by me.
Big Bad
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#9 Posted on 12.11.03 2251.14
Reposted on: 12.11.10 2252.38
I think my head just exploded reading all of this. WE NEED A PLAYOFF.

This year is kind of a moot point anyway, since you could take the best players from teams #2-6, put them together into one super squad, and Oklahoma would still whip them.
Quezzy
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#10 Posted on 13.11.03 0848.28
Reposted on: 13.11.10 0849.42
    Originally posted by TheCow
    Quezzy, remember tiebreaker #7: Georgia would go to the SEC Championship game, owning the win over UT (even though they're down in the BCS).


Georgia has the win over Tennessee but that would only but them in the championship game in a two way tie. As it stands now it's a three way tie between Georgia, Tennessee and Florida. Georgia has the win over Tennessee, but Tennessee has the win over Florida, and Florida has the win over Georgia. A three way tie like that usually comes down to a vote between the teams not involved in the tie or the SEC West Champion. But this year they had a conference call and decided that they would do it differently and the team that was highest in the BCS would win the tie breaker. And if Georiga beats Auburn it seems likely it would end in a three way tie. I don't see Florida losing to South Carolina or Tennessee losing to Kentucky, Miss St, Vanderbilt. If Georgia DOES lose to Auburn then that would just leave Florida and Tennessee tied and Tennessee would still win because of the win over Florida.

Atleast that's how I understood it, but I could be wrong.
Zeruel
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#11 Posted on 13.11.03 1527.04
Reposted on: 13.11.10 1529.01
    Originally posted by Quezzy
    Atleast that's how I understood it, but I could be wrong.


You are right. If the teams are tied, then the team higher in the BCS goes, UNLESS they are within 5 spots of each other (The ACC does this too), then if they are that close in the rankings, the team with the head-to-head win goes to the title game.
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