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DrDirt
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#21 Posted on 4.11.03 1744.58
Reposted on: 4.11.10 1746.46
    Originally posted by spf2119
    Of course, not all the news is good... Job Cuts more than double in October, 170,000+ jobs lost (story.news.yahoo.com). From a purely political standpoint, this is a scary number for George, because no matter how well the stock market does or what GDP growth or anything else is, if people are afraid of job loss, the spending bump won't last unless he can send out tax rebate checks every month on the first.


A jobless recovery is great ammunition for the Dems. They can play the evil corporate bastard card to the hilt and demonstrate that "W" only cares about big business. It may not be accurate but if these jobless number don't change, another Bush could be in deep DooDoo.
drjayphd
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#22 Posted on 4.11.03 2302.46
Reposted on: 4.11.10 2303.57
spf nailing the important part of this. There's still no jobs out there. Just going off of personal experience, I'm about to hit six months since graduation, not an hour of work in that time span. A family friend had to give her daughter money so she could move out (to NYC, but still) and it's looking like that might need to happen for me as well. If people still can't get jobs then, Bush is going to have a VERY hard time not being one-and-done like his father.
Guru Zim
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#23 Posted on 5.11.03 0100.10
Reposted on: 5.11.10 0101.05
Hm. In my corner of the world, we're hiring 100 people in the next few months. These jobs have been unfilled after attrition, and are now being filled. I take that as a good sign.

That's just my corner, though.

//edit: I've also been able to get work contracting, and for the first time in 2 years I will have contract money in the budget for my department next year.

(edited by Guru Zim on 4.11.03 2301)
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#24 Posted on 5.11.03 1501.49
Reposted on: 5.11.10 1502.12
I don't understand this "jobless recovery" talking point.

Correct me if I am wrong, but the normal progression of an improving economy goes Increase in buisness and profit, reduction of existing inventory, THEN the neeed to expand and hire more people.

Seems to me that the jobs come last, and have always came last in economic recovery. Every economist I have heard speaking on the matter has predicted that we should see some real job growth hit around April of next year.

Seems to me that the people lambasting the president over a "jobless recovery" are doing nothing more than appealing to the ignorant. Anyone with a small amount of general economic knowlege can see that things are progressing as they always have in an economic recovery. That is, unless someone can give me a real example of private sector job growth that occured prior to GDP and stock market increases in all of history....
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#25 Posted on 5.11.03 1552.07
Reposted on: 5.11.10 1552.43
    Originally posted by Pool-Boy
    I don't understand this "jobless recovery" talking point.

    Correct me if I am wrong, but the normal progression of an improving economy goes Increase in buisness and profit, reduction of existing inventory, THEN the neeed to expand and hire more people.

    Seems to me that the jobs come last, and have always came last in economic recovery. Every economist I have heard speaking on the matter has predicted that we should see some real job growth hit around April of next year.

    Seems to me that the people lambasting the president over a "jobless recovery" are doing nothing more than appealing to the ignorant. Anyone with a small amount of general economic knowlege can see that things are progressing as they always have in an economic recovery. That is, unless someone can give me a real example of private sector job growth that occured prior to GDP and stock market increases in all of history....


Its not so much that hiring hasn't picked up but that layoffs are continuing. Before hiring starts, you expect the loss of jobs to stop. Perhaps people wouldn't have the ammunition if "W" wasn't touting how things are improving. The stock indeces are up significantly through the first three quarters of this year. If Bush expects to be reelected, he better hope that April gets here soon and with real jobs. Perhaps the smart thing to do is not credit the President too much when the economy is going well and not blame too much when things go bad. Its funny, when things under Clinton were going great, he had nothing to do with it but the recession that started in 2001 was his fault.

Gure, in the heartland things aren't good. In Wichita which depends on Aviation and agriculture, layofss continue and things are a t best bottoming out. I am glad things ae picking up your way. In the center of the country the states are jst hoping that things don't get worse.
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#26 Posted on 7.11.03 0724.28
Reposted on: 7.11.10 0724.47
On a related topic, Mickey Kaus is running a new contest:

It finally looks as if the economy is recovering as opposed to spiraling into a Japan-style pit of deflation and permanent Bush-induced joblessness. That means the long-awaited Krugman Gotcha Contest can begin. A prize, to be announced, for the kf reader who comes up with the gloom-and-doom opinion from the fabled Princeton economist's recent writings that now looks the most embarrassingly wrong. ... You'd assume Donald Luskin would win this contest, but he might be so blindered by Krugmanoia and right-wing economic thinking that he overlooks a juicy nugget. ... It's a big paper trail! Everybody can win! Even Brad DeLong! ... Here's a good place to start. ... Note: No truncated quotes, edited quotes, or out-of-context quotes that don't actually reflect what Krugman is saying. Leave that to him. ... Also: Things that seemed obviously wrong at the time Krugman wrote them don't qualify. The prize is for a statement that now looks highly embarrassing in light of recent economic news. ... Send entries to Mickey_Kaus@msn.com ... (I've made highly embarrassing economic predictions myself. Here's one. But I'm not in the "circle of Those Who Get Money Calls.") ...
Corajudo
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#27 Posted on 7.11.03 0911.25
Reposted on: 7.11.10 0914.21
Now, the jobs data are out ( Here is an article (story.news.yahoo.com)). And, after the revising the (widely reported but previously preliminary) August and September numbers, it turns out that job growth (as well as income growth) was strong in the third quarter and was even stronger in October (but the Oct. numbers are still preliminary). So, in spite of the unbelievably strong productivity numbers (I believe that productivity grew 8.1 percent in the third quarter), the job market reported significant improvement.

Also, many economists are theorizing that the relatively long lag time between economic and employment recovery is (was?) due to structural changes in the economy (meaning that the jobs that were lost were due to technological change and due to fundamental changes in the job market; meaning that those jobs were, in large part, no longer necessary in the economy and therefore reflect a mismatch between job skills and labor demand and not inherent weakness in the economy). I think that the continued strong productivity numbers lend credence to this view. And, strong productivity will mean a slower recovery in the job market, even if the weak job market is not caused by structural changes in the economy.

I guess the point is that we should wait for all the data to come in before we jump to any judgements. I think that this is why economists are criticized so much--people want the conclusions and predictions before there is the necessary data to do this.




(edited by Corajudo on 7.11.03 0915)
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